Friday’s action…

Morning one and all. I hope and trust all is well and that you’ve all been smashing in winners left right and centre. After a dismal day hosting Sussex vs Essex on Wednesday in the Royal London Cup (not due to the cricket, but due to the weather) I finally managed to get back on the horse on the racing front in the last 24 hours or so. Had a good go on Tasleet in the opener at York yesterday. My main bet of the day though was on the Godolphin filly Mistrusting in the last. After her win in the four runner handicap at Newmarket last week I’d convinced myself that she was a potential group horse. I think the way she travelled through the race yesterday lead me to believe that again, it was a nervy last 100 yards but she held on well, possibly just idling in front.

I have started going through the videos, so within a few days we will have a nice big bank of eye catchers and horses to follow. Before we get on to today’s racing, just thought I should give a mention to the test match. It is a really flat pitch. A typical five day Oval pitch. The Aussies showed yesterday that if you get through those early overs, then the afternoon is normally a batters paradise. The next two days are set for very good weather, then there are storms and rain forecast for Sunday and Monday. The draw is available at 7/4 in places this morning. Providing England bat well later on today I cannot see this being anything other than a draw. I think the prices are wrong. I’ve backed the draw. If today follows a similar pattern to yesterday, then I expect the draw will be about 4/7 by the close of play. Tradetastic for all you that like to “cash out”.

I’m still coming to terms with the fact that I can’t click a race replay on RacingPost.com whilst looking at a race. The basic membership is about £14 a month now, and £26 if you include all the tipping pages. Cannot imagine that anyone is paying for that. I use the basic package but only due to the fact that all of my notes are stored on the database. Once I upgrade my office computer, I think I many well transfer all my notes onto the Proform database so that it’s all in one place. Taking the videos off the website I’m sure is a big mistake.

Found the opening race at York difficult. Plenty of possibilities, but nothing that leapt out for a bet. I don’t have a strong opinion in the Yorkshire Cup either. I wouldn’t be surprised if anyone of them won to be honest.

First bet of the day will be Richard Pankhurst in the Sky Bet City Of York Stakes at 3.05. I know he’s only had two starts and has had 426 days off since winning the Chesham last year but that was a really taking victory, one that suggested he was going to be better than listed class. He is in great hands and I’m sure he’ll be ready. He is a general 13/2 chance this morning, if that had been at this years Royal Ascot he’d be 6/4 so I think he represents value and if he is anywhere near his best; I think he’ll be really hard to beat. I will be having a small saver on Short Squeeze. He was given one of the rides of the season in a big handicap here last year by Smullen and he is back on board today. Whilst he is probably better at a mile, there is a good chance this will be frantic. Salateen, Toocoolforschool and Glory Awaits all have double figure pace figures on Proform so I’m expecting a strong gallop and this brings Short Squeeze into calculations. At 12/1 I’ll be saving on him.

On to the feature race of the day the Nunthorpe at 3.4o and I cannot get away from ACAPULCO. She ran to a topspeed figure of 110 at Ascot. Only Muthmir (111) has run anywhere near that this season. She gets a 24lb allowance from her elders here which whatever way you look at it makes her very very hard to beat. Tactics may be important. There is the smallest chance things could get to her jockey Irad Ortiz Jr, who is not guaranteed to get the best of receptions from the patriotic’s. The Nunthorpe is a race that can throw up an odd result too. All things said, I honestly could’t go against her. I hope she wins. Whether she is bankable at 2/1 or not I’ll leave up to you. She might go in a multiple.

I’ll jump to the evening card at Wolverhampton for the next interest. BUSH BEAUTY (8.20) is mildly interesting in the class 6, 6 furlong handicap. Normally better over slightly longer she needs a real test at six to figure but I think we may well get that tonight as Cloak And Degas, Captain Future, Bosham and Indian Affair all like to rattle along. We have to forgive the run last time but she has never shown much on turf. Back on tapeta she is drawn in stall 2 so Rachel Richardson can just pop out and take her time. If they go stupid up front then she will be a big player when they turn for home. She comes out top on the PROFORM  ratings by some way too. She’s 10/1 in places this morning and must represent a fairly good each way bet.

At Sandown in the opener I thought KOMEDY (2.20) may be interesting. She has a piece of form (debut) that would make her particularly interesting off an opening mark of 64. Her last run in a maiden certainly smacked of “nursery type” and the yard are in much better form than earlier in the year. I’ve had a small interest on her at 7/1.

On a totally separate note, the Redskins went 2-0 in pre-season last night after beating Detroit 21-17, that unfortunately though does not tell the story. The first two quarters, the offensive line decided not to block for RG3, he got hit 7 times and sacked 3 more. He ended with a  busted shoulder and a concussion. This is clearly unacceptable and this needs to be addressed as soon as possible. We moved the ball with ease once Colt McCoy came in. It was all too similar a story to last year when RG3 was in. The pocket was collapsing with ridiculous ease. I hope there is no skulduggery going on.

For the first time I’m starting to think that it might be time to trade him as there are clearly some trust issues within the team.

Have a good day today, be lucky.

MG

Sunday 20th October!

Afternoon campers. I hope you all enjoyed a great days sport yesterday. Champions day went pretty well with a stunning victory for Farhh in the feature. Lots of credit has to go to the team for having him fit and ready off such a long lay off. He will now head straight for stud duties…. lucky sod. Jack Dexter ran an absolute blinder in the sprint but just failed to get to Slade Power. When previewing the race in the morning with Dicko on Coral TV he was worried about the lack of an out and out front runner and he said SP was a solid bet. A really great shout (again). Very pleased with Dark Lover winning at Cheltenham, although a little lucky as Balder Success looked in control when falling two out. Delighted to see Balthazar King lead at a good pace, jump like a stag and win. I know a lot of people fancied him yesterday.

At Wolverhampton things didn’t pan out. Ajeeb ran a stinker and is probably gone at the game. I won’t touch him again unless I see strong early money. He could do with a change of yard. Available ran well to be 3rd but for one who likes to be on the pace he had to go via Milton Keynes to get near the lead after traveling well into the race. Hannah’s Turn was much to keen and didn’t really do herself justice. I cannot wait to see her back on fibresand where she will win!

Nothing from the http://www.proformracing.com horse watcher today. I do think that Fitzwilly (2.30 Bath) is interesting if getting a soft lead. Maybe a play in running!

NFL SUNDAY

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions

Two improved teams on what we saw last year and I think we are in for a tight one in the early game on Skysports this evening. Both sides have weapons on each side of the ball and I have really enjoyed the progress of Giovani Bernard and Tyler Eifert for the Bengals. They are finally a franchise moving in the right direction. Andy Dalton is not the greatest QB in the game but he is a very good game manager and I expect them to push the Lions all the way. Turnovers could end up being the difference between these two teams today so defense is going to play a huge part. I think the handicap line is so tight here it doesn’t justify a play. I think the under 47 total points is the best play in the game market with the NAP coming on GB to score anytime.

UNDER 47 pts @ 10/11 with William Hill

GIOVANI BERNARD anytime touchdown scorer with Paddy Power at 7/5 (NAP)

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

The later game on sky is a tale of two franchises in opposite ends of the scale that we expected. Houston we have a problem has been used more times than ever in the last few weeks! QB problems a plenty they will be ripe for the picking at Arrowhead tonight. Kansas are 6-0 but they are not a genuine 6-0 team. They have had a soft schedule so far and we will see them in a much better light when they play Denver in two weeks. I think I’ve found a cracker in here though in the sacks market.

SkyBet are going 10/11 on over 5.5 sacks! Neither offensive line is particularly strong and you should get as much as SkyBet will allow on!

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts

One simple and easy bet for you here. OVER 55 PTS. Maximum bet material.

New England Patriots at New York Jets

Once again last week Tom Brady showed why he is probably the best ever. The Pats 4th quarter winning drive was just a joy to behold and had his rookie receivers held on to the ball better in recent weeks they would still be unbeaten. I was very disappointed with the Jets last week and I had the Pats in as 7 pt favs here so the fact you can get -3 on the handicap across the board is a bonus.

NEW ENGLAND -3pts @ 10/11.

I may well stick Bernard (7/5), Pats -3 (10/11), over 55 pts (den v ind) in a sexy treble!

Enjoy the games!

MG

NFL Sunday!!

Well here we are again, the waiting is over. Sunday’s are no longer spent trying to get a ton at the Dean, it’s now all about the NFL. Fantasy team drafts and picks done, it’s time for the talking to stop and the hitting to start!

We kick off the new season with three cracking games. Sky’s coverage starts with a potential burn up as the Atlanta Falcons travel to New Orleans who are once again under the guidance of Sean Peyton. The later offering is another belter as the Packers travel to last year Superbowl losers the San Fransisco 49ers. The late Sunday night game which again this year will be covered by Channel 4 is an all NFC East showdown between the much talked about Cowboys and Giants in Dallas.

The best news from a TV point of view to come out in the last few days is that Monday Night Football will this year be covered by Eurosport! Now whilst we can’t comment on what the coverage will be like, at the very least this enables the option to record games on busy weeks, an option which was not available on the red button last year when the rights were held by the BBC. Let’s hope that Eurosport have recruited some knowledgeable presenters and not just some standard team members that will fumble their way through it.

Just one more note to any of you that may have missed it. Channel 4 are showing a new series called American Football Hard Knocks which follows a few teams through training camp. It is excellent and shows a side of the game that many of you in this country wouldn’t have seen before. Well worth a watch, set your Sky to record it next week and catch this weeks on 4OD.

Before we get into today’s games let’s have a brief look at the outright markets. The Superbowl market is so tight there is hardly any value to have. The Broncos are jollies at around 6/1 which is barmy short in reality. If this was a 32 runner 6f handicap we would be minimum 10/1 the field. Yes they showed what they are about against Baltimore on Thursday Night but it wasn’t all rosey. Cast your mind back to the 2nd play of the 2nd half. Manning handed the ball off to the RB for no gain…….. what ensued? BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. Sorry was I watching Philly? Crowd getting edgy and booing the play calls that early? Fickle as anything. The game then turns on a 3rd down INCOMPLETE pass that amazingly Harbaugh didn’t challenge. Don’t get me wrong, Denver have a lot of weapons and they also have probably the best game manager the NFL has ever seen in Manning but offenses don’t win Superbowls. In particularly in the first half you saw how key Von Miller is to the Broncos. Without his pass rush Joe Flacco had time for a cup of earl grey, a scone and to gloat about his 120 million dollar contract before releasing the ball. Against read option teams the Broncos games could go over 90 points! I will stick my neck out here and say that the Broncos will not be champions this year. When looking for teams to back in the outright market it is always worth looking at teams that you think will make the playoffs. Then you are in a great hedging situation week by week. Also ignore bookmakers. Betfair’s prices are inflated in the season markets and again give you a wheel for trading in the post season. At this point, the playoff contenders that are big prices on Betfair are as follows:

San Fransisco 9.2 (Shouldn’t be a bigger price than Denver)

Green Bay 14.5

Cincinnati 23

Washington 42

Indianapolis 60

Carolina 80

Minnesota 100

Buffalo 310

Potentially the biggest one of the above is obviously the Redskins. Their season and chances completely revolve around the fitness of RG3. They were ridiculously hot when he got injured in the playoff game against Seattle and the season came to a crashing end. Recovering from an ACL is never easy, but just look how effective Adrian Peterson has been since he had the same surgery. If and it is a big if, he is healthy, then in my opinion (completely unbiased) they will win the NFC East and be big players come Playoff time. I can see them trading on BF at around 10/1 within 4/5 weeks.

You can make a case for some potential improvers. The Bengals could have a good season and should be pushing for a playoff place. I also think the Bills are building a nice franchise and the 16/1 about them to pinch the AFC East is not the worst bet I’ve ever seen. The Patriots are obviously short priced favs but they have lost some key weapons this year and there is definitely an argument for taking them on. I can’t have the Dolphins (sorry Craig) so maybe the Bills at 16’s could surprise a few. They play the Pat’s in the season opener tonight and are massive on the handicap!

PLAYERS TO WATCH!

Without doubt the player I am most looking forward to seeing this year is the Rookie out of Notre Dame TYLER EIFERT. He’s looked good in pre-season and the rumblings coming out of Cincinnati are that he is a beast. He plays Tight End and should see a lot of the ball. He could be a fantasy dream.

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

A great season opener. The Saints will be rejuvenated by the return of head coach Sean Peyton after his year ban due to his part in the bounty scandal. He is a great play calling head coach and the Saints will surely be better than their 7-9 record last year. They lead the league in offense but the big problem was the fact that the D gave up 7042 yards, which is an NFL record. Atlanta have some key additions on both sides of the ball. Steven Jackson has signed from St Louis and British born Osi Umenyiora has joined from the New York Giants. Either way you chalk this up it looks like we are going to get a good old-fashioned slug fest and I expect a gun slinging points fest.

Over 54.5 points with BETFRED @ 10/11

Drew Brees over 326.5 Yards with Hills

Green Bay Packers @ San Fransisco 49ers

Boom. A great way to start. These two are big players in the race for the NFC Championship this year and we should get an opening cracker. The 49ers notched up a 45-31 beating in the post season match up between these two but I don’t expect a huge points fest this time around. The Packers will be delighted to have linebackers Clay Matthews and Nick Perry back and fully fit ahead of the new season which is a huge plus. The negative comes in the secondary as they have lost Charles Woodson (lost his marbles and gone to the Raiders) and Casey Hayward is struggling with a dodgy hamstring so I expect Kaepernick to through the odd deep ball.

On offense the Packers have the major issue of no Bryan Bulaga at left tackle who is out for the year. I fear that Aaron Rogers may have more than one turf sandwich this evening. Main receiver Greg Jennings has joined rivals the Minnesota Vikings and running back DJ Harris is done with a bad knee injury. This should open the door for the potentially very exciting Eddie Lacy who basically ran Alabama to a national championship last year.

Kaepernick has issues too with both Crabtree and Manningham out for a couple of months. As a result the 49ers traded a sixth round pick for Anquan Boldin who 7 months ago, gave them the runaround in the Superbowl.

A game to watch and enjoy without too much involvement but CORAL are going 11/8 Kaepernick anytime scorer. That will do nicely.

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

The division of death (NFC East) opens up with a big rivalry. Both teams failed to make the playoffs last year with defensive issues plaguing both sides. The major change comes in Dallas where defensive co-ordinator Monty Kiffin has replaced Rob Ryan. Under Kiffin Dallas will almost certainly revert to a 4-3 defense.

There are the usual pre-season ramblings coming out of Dallas that they have improved, are hungry and are potential players this year. Yeah yeah, same we’ve heard for the last five years. A big contract extension for Tony Romo (still hope for me yet) means to me much the same. When you talk about much the same……the Giants have won in Dallas for the last four years and Dallas tonight are 4/7 on the money line! No thank you!

Should be fairly brutal and although they were poor at the back-end of last year there is not much between these two at all and whereas Manning is clutch, Romo is an interception throwing, fumbling choker.

New York Giants to win @ 13/8 is enormous.

Victor Cruz over 73.5 yards with Paddy Power @ 10/11

BET OF THE WEEK…..

That would have to be The Bills +10 at home to New England. A Barmy points line in a game that the Bills should be very competitive.

Looking forward to a 10 hour marathon! Hope you all enjoy!

Be Lucky

MG

Saturday 19th January

19 days into my 151 day marathon and I’m hurting! Things are starting to take shape at the gym and I feel myself getting into a rhythm but its bloody hard work. 10lbs in the first two weeks though has been a cracking result and is a big incentive to really kick on. Already been to the gym for three hours this morning, I nearly nodded off in the jacuzzi after!

One or two things to pick up on from the week. Firstly the FA have decided to punish Sam Allerdyce for his comments about Phil Dowd after the FA CUP replay at Manchester United in the week. Well I hate to think what my punishment from the FA would have been if they had heard my comments. His performance was nothing short of staggering. Now you may think that I am talking through tinted glasses; well of course I am. I bleed claret and blue, but even the united fans I know agreed. He is weak and scared of Fergie. Rant over. It actually was a real shame as United were there for the taking and we just didn’t take advantage. Players panicked in the final third and not taking advantage of some excellent break aways. Carlton Cole had one of those days where he decided to basically not get out of bed. I understand that the guy has no real interest in football and doesn’t really have a desire to play but it was an FA CUP tie against the biggest club in the world under lights……….I would have given my left knee to start!

Another thing to pick up on was a debate the my old pal Paul Jacobs started on Timeform Radio about the current state of the stewarding on British racing and that he believes we should be using full-time stewards. I have to say I totally agree as there is so much brushed under the carpet under the current regime.

Obviously the weather has played havoc with the racing again this weekend with only Kempton surviving this afternoon. It is very average fare aswell with most of the races being class 6 handicaps. On the whole card I have managed to muster up one bet and that is TOGA TIGER (2.20). Jeremy Gask’s gelding has done nothing but improve over the last 12 months and he did very well to win last time back from a break. He has only been raised 2lbs in the weights which is largely offset by the jockeys claim and I think he is worth backing to continue the progress. Light From Mars is a big danger and has to be respected and I may stick a money back saver on him.

Lots of  stuff coming up over the next couple of days. I will be taking a good look at the Conference Championship games in the NFL tomorrow. I will also start to preview the Cheltenham Festival festival race by race. Everyday my eye seems to be drawn to the festival markets trying to see if there is any obvious value anywhere! I will do my best to eek out the best before posting.

Enjoy today. Wish I was with the other members of the family who have all gone to Upton Park to see the hammers get three points.

I’m on the late show on Coral TV.  Be lucky!

MG

Saturday 9th December – Tingle Creek!

Good morning campers. Apologies for the lack of posting the last two days. Very busy and a lack of internet scuppered the roll…

A great day today that I am really looking forward too. I was supposed to be at Sandown for the Tingle Creek meeting but I forgot the car was booked in for the MOT this morning! The upside is the car went through with flying colours so it was a cheap morning!

I can’t go on without mentioning the ride by Connor O Farrell on Tanerko Emery yesterday. I think he knew he was on a particularly well handicapped horse but needless to say he timed it to absolute perfection. A cracking ride.

THE SPORTINGBET TINGLE CREEK CHASE

Not the most strength in-depth for this years renewal but the return of two of last season’s most exciting novice chasers provides us with an early christmas treat that rivals any mince-pie with brandy sauce. It seems that Paul Nicholls has finally found the key to SANCTUAIRE who has been called a few names in his career but has always had untapped ability. Whether or not he has quite enough ability to hold onto a horse like SPRINTER SACRE I’m not so sure. Nicky Henderson’s second season chaser gave me that feeling last year that only Kauto Star has given me in my professional career. His jumping is electric and could you have a better stage to display your skills than around Sandown. Provided that all is well and Sanctuaire does consent to race today then I imagine Ruby is going to pop out in front and attempt to make all and try to get Sprinter Sacre off the bridle. I just can’t see it, if anything I think Sanctuaire will help Sprinter Sacre. He doesn’t really provide any kind of betting medium, but I think he will win easily and it will be a fascinating watch.

Talking of exciting novice chasers and Tim Vaughan has one today at Wetherby (12.45) who looks to have an immense amount of ability. ALAND ISLAND is hovering around even money this morning and I have backed him. I think he is a class act that should be much too good for these. I wouldn’t be surprised that although he has plenty of fancied rides, he is the sole reason AP has gone there.

I’ve also backed KENTFORD GREY LADY (12.55 Sand) who looks to me to be on a really good mark. Yes she has to carry around top weight, but she’s in against her own sex and 135 massively underestimates her overall potential. I don’t need to tell you how progressive IFBUTANDWHYNOT looks. The form was given a massive boost yesterday and the 13lb rise is very unlikely to stop him today in a race that should be run to suit.

My best bet of the day though comes at Lingfield in the form of FONTERUTOLI (2.50) who was given a poor ride two days ago and the team are looking to recoup those losses again today. Different jockey on board today and arguably a better draw in stall 6 which may sound a bit strange for a hold up horse. The reason I say this is that he often travels very well and finishes off well but he constantly gets trapped on heels with nowhere to go. Ideally here today he can just pop out and travel 2/3 horses wide and then come with a run down the outside in the straight. The favourite in the race is a short price based on his unlucky run here on Thursday too but he had twenty races in Norway and Jersey and only won once. His ridiculous price means there is value elsewhere and the 13/2 this morning about Fonterutoli was just massive!!!!!

I’ve also thrown a few quid at Nacarat at Aintree in a race that really should be run to suit him. The Mildmay course is nowhere near as testing as the rest of the tack (good to soft in places).

Someone at BETVICTOR is going to get sacked this weekend. They have priced up West Ham at 85/40 at home to the Suarezless Liverpool tomorrow. I’m sorry but that price is just amazing and it will pay for the Christmas parties this week.

Have a top day today, be on for a good look at tomorrows NFL!

MG

Tuesday 4th December

I have to admit to sleeping through my alarm today and I also apologise to the neighbours for the noise late into the night! Another really good performance from RG3 and the Redskins to knock off the Giants and get back to 6-6. It has thrown the division wide open and I have to say gives us an outstanding chance of getting to 10-6. We play Baltimore at home this Sunday which will be crucial, we then have relatively soft games against Cleveland, Philly and finish at home to Dallas. We are basically already into play off football. I hope plenty of you managed to get on the RG3 rushing yards with Laddies. They took the market down a couple of hours after I posted but he covered it comfortably.

Good day on the racing front too as Rapid Water went in at a very tasty price of 10/1.

Today’s racing is on the moderate side but it is good to be racing. I see temperatures are set to drop again later in the week! There are still no entries available for the Tingle Creek? I’ll be there on Saturday to see the delights of Sprinter Sacre vs Sanctuaire….bearing in mind the entries are not yet out I hope we are not looking at a potential 2/3 horse race?

I really like the look of KNOWE HEAD (1.40 WOLV) this afternoon and he is without doubt the bet of the day for me . He is back down to his last winning mark today and actually ran a lot better than the bare result suggested last time where he got stopped in his run at a crucial stage. That was a 0-85 contest and was much warmer than today’s 0-75 where he picks up top weight. I think he looks set to run a really big race and the 12/1 around earlier on has been well and truly mopped up!

I also like the look of FORTUNATE BID (5.10 Wolv) for all the same reasons as I mentioned the other day before he was subject of the abandoned meeting. He is 8/1 with Bet365 which is much too big!

I’m also pretty luke warm on UPTO SOMETHING (1.50 Towcester). He ran poorly last time but had been progressive before that. The Uttoxeter race might actually end up being pretty good as the winner (CONEYGREE) bolted up at Cheltenham next time in what looked a decent novice hurdle. Forgive him that run today and he is a really big player!

I have just gone through the draw for the World Darts Championships which was made this morning. From what I can see it looks like Phil Taylor will be very pleased. He might have to play Adrian Lewis in the 3rd round but he won’t be worried about anyone else on his side of the draw. The top half looks brutal! Barney or Newton will play Anderson in the second round. Huybrechts and Hamilton will probably meet in round 2! Nicholson, Whitlock, Van Gerwen and Chisnall are all set to meet early on aswell! That 3/1 about Taylor last week all of a sudden looks a distant memory! Can’t wait for it to start, just wish i’d got tickets!

Be lucky today,

MG

Monday 3rd December! NFC East Showdown in DC!

Well what a weekend to behold! Things got underway in super fashion at Upton Park with the mighty hammers given Chelsea a good beating. I was travelling back from Coral TV at the time and I think a few people on the M23 thought I was a nutter when West Ham scored. At home especially we are picking up points against the big boys so we are making progress and a top ten finish is not out of the question now.

Got home just in time to see Bob’s Worth make a mockery of his mark of 160. He travelled really well and jumped nicely on the whole and looks sure to be a player in the main event at the festival. Well done to all that weighed in. Tidal Bay ran another absolute blinder in finishing 2nd. He’s a remarkable horse. Hold On Julio ran on well to pick up 5th but in truth his jumping just didn’t hold up. He hit 2 or 3 down the back pretty hard and losing 2/3 lengths a time in a race of that nature is unforgiving.

The weekends NFL action was nothing short of Carnage! Andrew Luck’s performance in Detroit was amazing, as was the finish in Chicago! Everyone just continues to beat everyone, it is the most wide open season I can ever remember. Denver are getting really hot under Manning but it is hard to really know how good they are as they have had a pretty soft schedule. The Broncos have only played 4 teams with winning records and have lost three of those games! Tonight’s game is a huge one with the NFC East so tight.

Looks like the weather is finally starting to settle down and we are going to get a good week of racing. Interesting stuff today but I have only managed to find a couple of semi interesting bets. One solid one and one from left field.

RAPID WATER (4.20 KEMP) is a really interesting runner. He was a little unlucky two starts back when not getting the best of runs. His latest effort can be forgiven as he doesn’t get the trip. Back in distance today he is on a very nice mark and gets in today off bottom weight. He was running off marks in the 80’s a couple of years ago and gets in here off 55! The 8/1 around this morning is lovely!

BALTIC PRINCE (4.30 WOLV) is lightly raced and is definitely over priced for his return to Wolverhampton and more importantly 7f today. Still a maiden but is potentially on a fair mark given what we have seen so far around here and there is no way he is a 33/1 chance and there is every chance he could be in the mix up!

New York Giants @ Washington Redskins

Just enormous play off implications going into this contest tonight for MNF. The Giants lead the NFC East on 7-5 and the Skins are 5-6. So if Washington win tonight it will blow the division wide open with 4 weeks to go. Dallas won last night to go to 6-6 too so it is literally tighter than Wonga at the bar. Tonight’s game is a real head scratcher. The game in New York was tight with the Redskins going ahead in the final minute only to give up a big play to Victor Cruz with seconds remaining to give the victory to NY. Giants are slight favourites tonight and that is probably just about right.

The worry for Washington is that their defence is just not good enough although they have played much tougher the last two weeks. The Giants are hot and cold. In New York they really struggled to cope with RG3 and I’m expecting much the same tonight and I think that is where the bet may lie…

Ladbrokes are going RG3 rushing yards at OVER 48.5! Yes please I’ll have the 10/11 as he is likely to bust that in one or two plays…

Should be a quality game and a guaranteed late night! Should also say a big happy 30th to Dicko today. He’s at the HWPA awards and is sure to travel strongly through the day, he might weaken late on and be given a break on the back of it though.

Be lucky today!

MG

NFL Sunday!

Afternoon campers. A lazy Sunday with no racing and therefore no alarm clock set resulting in waking up at Midday! Cheeky!

Currently watching West Ham at the Spuds. White Hart Lane is so quiet……COYI

Ok on to tonight’s action and it is going to be another late night! Three very intriguing games to get involved with!

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

A huge divisional rivalry tonight from the NFC North with huge play off implications. There is just one game between these two in the race for the playoffs and the winner tonight will have a huge advantage. The Bears have promised much but in the last few weeks have offered little and with QB Jay Cutler suffering from concussion, it is not yet confirmed he will play. Minnesota are the typical transition franchise. Plenty of up and coming youngsters mixed with a few veterans that are certain to be a real force in the coming years. First things first on the money line Chicago are way too short at 2/5. They are the better team if healthy but they are not 2/5 shots which instantly makes the Vikes interesting on the handicap getting 6.5 points. When we saw Houston play in Chicago two weeks ago Arian Foster had a big day and I can see exactly the same happening today with Adrian Peterson. On his day he is the best rusher in the NFL and his comeback from injury so far this year has been immense as he is averaging 5.8 yards per carry. In a hostile environment I think the Vikes will be keen to stay in the game and will run it a lot which should also open things up for the play action pass.

Minnesota +6.5pts – 1pt @ 10/11

ADRIAN PETERSON – OVER 90.5 YARDS – 4 PTS @ 10/11 WITH LADBROKES.

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants

What a game this is going to be and what an effect this is going to have on the play-offs! Green Bay are scrapping for the NFC North title with the two teams in the live early game whilst the Giants have lost their tight grip on the NFC East lead. If they lose tonight they have the task of going to Washington next week with the prospect of being overtaken by the skins. A massive game that has a lot of recent history.

This is a really tight game to call and with personal preference for an obvious Packers win (big Redskins fan) then I can’t really find any value in the win markets. It could be explosive and with both teams a little short on defence I think the play here is to look for the overs on the points.

OVER 51 points generally available at 10/11.

San Fransisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints

This should be another cracker. The Saints are on the march after a more than shaky start and if they keep winning, will get themselves into the playoff race. The 49ers are all over the place. Alex Smith (who I do not rate) gets a concussion, so Colin Kaerpernick comes in and plays a blinder! Who do they go with? Who knows. This has got points written all over it as always in New Orleans but I don’t think you can truly trust either side. One thing you can trust though is Drew Brees’s arm and he is the play here as it is very tough to run on the 49ers.

DREW BREES OVER 290.5 YARDS – 3 PTS @ 10/11 WITH WILLIAM HILL

I hope you enjoy another massive night of NFL action and we can continue the winning streak!

MG

Friday 23rd November!

Morning campers. Well what a fun day yesterday was! the turkey, spuds and gravy was flowing here as we were treated to a couple of NFL crackers for thanksgiving.

My day started with the treat of popping to my nearest Ladbrokes shop, the kind lady behind the counter kindly told me their shop price for the Redskins was 21/11 when I said “bugger, wish I had more cash on me” she looked a little startled.

The hardest game to watch without doubt was the first as Houston never really looked capable of stopping Detroit. For the neutral it was a superb start to the triple header, first the first leg of the treble it was painful to watch and we probably owe the officials a few quid in commission after some barmy penalty calls.

The Redskins game was just about dead and buried by half time. RG3 was imperious and you have to say with their schedule the Skins are still live runners for the NFC East title. My NFL punting guru (@bickers56) keeps telling me I am mad for thinking this, but the Redskins host the Giants next Sunday which all of a sudden is the classic 6 pointer. I would just like to raise a glass collectively to Skybet, Ladbrokes and the lemmings on Betfair that offered baffling prices. Do your research next time. 😉 Thanks for all your messages, it seems plenty of you followed me in on the Redskins and on the treble so we’ve picked up a nice few quid this morning.

My best bet of the day today comes in the form of THE TATTING (6.10 Wolverhampton) He is a progressive horse and looks to be well in under a penalty to me this evening. I expect him to win again. I will be having a saver on Aragorn Rouge as I’ve backed him the last twice and he probably should have won last week.

I really like the chance of KAYLEE (4.10 Wolverhampton) Gary Moore’s lightly raced three-year old has slowly got the hang of things and actually travelled really well last time before being hampered and being given no real chance of winning. This basement mark of 50 looks very nice indeed.She was only half a stride behind Venetia’s Dream that day yet she is priced up as 3/1 fav? Prices are wrong and Kaylee should run a big race and each way at 10/1 is a pretty solid bet for me!

I have also backed IDOL DEPUTY (7.10 Wolv). Looks progressive and a little over priced.

I should wish my sister a happy birthday! She’s currently sunning herself in Australia so at the time I’m writing this she is almost certainly pissed!

Be lucky today

MG

 

NFL Thanksgiving Feast! Skybet running for cover!

Happy Thanksgiving!

I trust that today’s blog finds you in good form and you are looking forward to tucking into your turkey and roast spuds (cooked in goose fat of course) later with lashings of gravy and three big divisional rivalries!

Firstly lets touch on the racing. Yesterday was painful. Again I was in the “I’ve backed a winner” camp when getting on Shore Performer at 14/1 in the morning and see it get smashed into 4/1 fav. At this point you generally feel like a very smug punter who is already counting the cash. Well it doesn’t always work out that way does it? She was much too free and finished out the back. Brimestone Hill didn’t add to my elation either. He travelled like a dream, showed the world what a well handicapped horse he is, got stuck on the rail, couldn’t get out and finished on the bridle. Double bugger.

We have lost two of today’s meetings due to this beautiful english weather. Racing goes ahead at Market Rasen but I couldn’t find a single angle there at all. So I’ve gone into detail on the Kempton card in an attempt to pay for tonight’s festivities!

For what it is worth I think ESTEDAAMA (6.40) is still ahead of the handicapper and I think he will win again. Stanjames are sticking their neck out at 7/4 so that will be the target for the bullseye.

The first of my three strong fancies comes in the 4.40 in the form of MY SWEET LORD. He has taken his time to learn his trade but has actually run a bit better than his results suggest. He has been missing the break and struggling to get back on terms. This is probably the weakest race he has contested and if they go quick (which they should) I though he was of major interest tonight to get us off to a winning start.

I do really like the chances of SELKIES FRIEND (6.10) and would just about make him the best bet of the day. Henry Candy’s gelding has only had the one start to date when winning a soft ground maiden at Newmarket back in July. On the back of that he has been given an opening mark of 78 and some of the horses behind him that day have gone on to achieve better (one is rated 93). He is US bred so a switch to an artificial surface is likely to be in his favour. He also gets a 2lb weight for age allowance and sneaks in off bottom weight. Massive chance and a decent bet at 9/2.

SUGARFORMYHONEY (7.40) travelled like a dream last time and almost led them a merry dance from the front. She struggled to see out the mile that day and she could be a very well handicapped animal dropped back in trip and hopefully Charles Bishop can time it just right.

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys – 9pm

Every now and again a little golden nugget comes along when the odds compilers at all the major firms just show that they don’t know enough about the sports they are betting on. The NFL is one of those sports and tonight we have a mortgage job. Firstly the facts…..the Cowboys and Redskins have played each other six times on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys have won all six. A big factor to this stat is that Dallas have been the home team on all six occasions. This year the Cowboys are 5-5 and the Skins are 4-6. However these records do not tell the full story. The Redkins are really struggling on defense but there offense is very potent under RG3. I watched the Cowboys game against Philly two Sundays back and both teams were dire, it was painful to watch and Dallas eventually came out on top due to a couple of late turnovers. When I priced this game up I had thought the enemy would honestly go 10/11 the pair. So as you can imagine I nearly choked on my corn flakes on Tuesday when I saw SKYBET were going 13/8 Washington and 1/2 Dallas. MAJOR BALLSUP!! I told as many people as I possibly could at the time and needless to say that 13/8 didn’t last too long. They are still readily available at 6/4 which in no uncertain terms is a maximum bet of epic proportions.

Why? Well Dallas have beaten only two teams with winning records. The Giants in week one when New York were too bad to be true and Tampa who are 6-4 but are flattered by a soft schedule. Their other wins have come against Carlolina (2-8) Philly (3-7) and Cleveland (2-8). Three of the worst teams in the NFL by some way. In comparison Washington have beaten New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Philly. They have also lost in tight games to Atlanta (9-1) NYG (6-4) and Cincinatti (5-5) in games you could argue that they probably should have won.

The major outcome of this game lies with the Redksins defence as offensively the Skins will definitely out score Dallas. If the skins D steps up then that 13/8 will be bloody lovely and they actually match up really well against this Dallas team!

I have backed Washington maximum outright and have put them into a treble with Houston and New England!

It should be a cracking night’s entertainment and I hope you enjoy. A big thanks to Skybet……ooooooooosssshhh.

Be lucky today!

MG