Friday’s blog………

Proform

A late night last night was kinda inevitable with game four of the Bruins series with the Habs not starting till half past midnight which was just about the same time as the 2014 NFL draft. The skins get the 2nd pick in round two, hopefully we can start to build a secondary! Game four was certainly nail-biting! I think I woke up the whole street when we scored the over time winner to take a 1-0 road win and tie the series up at two a piece. I have to admit we are fortunate to be level, Montreal have out skated us, their rink length break passes are dangerous and their penalty kill is the best I have seen this year.

I’m hosting @TimeformRadio this afternoon so I’m writing this whilst being thrown about on the train. Don’t know what it is but the Brighton-London mainline just seems to get busier and busier, even after rush hour.

A quick look back on yesterday. We only liked the look of one of the races at Chester and that produced a lovely 8/1 winner and 7/1 second. They pulled well clear of the others and have both out run their current marks. Hoping that this rich vein of form will continue through the rest of the summer.

Let’s move on to some Proform stats for the day today.

Trainers win & place strike rates with min 10 runners in the last 14 days:

Saeed Bin Suroor 63.64% (11 runners)

Karl Burke 62.50% (24 runners)

Michael Dods 61.11% (18 runners)

Ralph Beckett 59.26% (27 runners)

Andrew Balding 54.76% (42 runners)

Amanda Perrett 53.85% (13 runners)

Karl Burke and David Elsworth both remain in excellent form and have winning strike rates of over 40%.

Having gone through the Chester card today for the radio I found it hard to come up with anything I could get overly enthusiastic about. I did think that CENTURY will run a big race in the Dee Stakes (2.15) but found it difficult to find any other angles.

First up today is STOMP (3.05 Lingfield). He has been on the radar for ages. He should have won both of his last two starts at the back-end of last year but for bad luck in running/poor rides. He comes here on the back of an easy victory at Windsor on his re-appearance after being gelded over the winter. A 6lb rise only actually leaves him 3lb higher than when he should have won at Pontefract. I think he is still seriously well handicapped off 79 and provided there are no traffic problems I expect him to win again. He is a Timeform horse in focus. The money has really come this morning for  Double Up so there is plenty of 3/1 available. I would just throw in a nice note for AMAHORO who I am sure is going to win one of these soon enough. He might just be bumping into a couple of very well handicapped horses though today. I will have a small saver on him to cover the bets.

STOMP 4 PTS WIN @ 3/1 BOG, AMAHORO 0.5pt win @ 20/1

I fully Expect MAIDEN APPROACH (6.50 Nottingham) to make a winning re-appearance. She managed to win her final start over five furlongs but is surely going to be more effective over this sort of trip today.

MAIDEN APPROACH 2PTS WIN @ 5/1

It is probably worth throwing a final dart at JOEY’S DESTINY (7.15 Ascot) this evening. He has been unlucky not to win already this season and has been bumped up another 4lbs for being beaten at Windsor last time. I am not sure that track entirely suited whereas Ascot most certainly will and he was beaten by what I consider to be a very well handicapped horse at Windsor in the enigmatic Huntsman’s Close. He is a double figure price so just fire 1pt at him each way as he should be in the money at least.

JOEY’S DESTINY 1 pt EACH WAY @ 15/2

KNIGHT OWL (7.25 Nottingham) is another for me who is close to maximum bet material. He progressed really well toewards the back end of last year and on his re-appearance run two weeks ago he travelled like the best horse in the race for a long way before a lack of race fitness just took its toll late on. That should have put him spot on for this evening and I expect him to be incredibly hard to beat tonight.

KNIGHT OWL 4 pts win @ 3/1

FLOW (7.35 Ripon) is absolutely maximum material in spades. He progressed nicely last year and was just foiled in a big field handicap on his final start at York when a well backed favourite. He is up 3lbs but still races off a mark of 86 here when I’m sure he is a three figure horse waiting to happen. If he is fit and ready to go here today then he is going to take a world of beating.

FLOW MAXIMUM 5 PTs WIN @ 7/2

Final two to come off the list are a little bit later on with MR MATTHEWS (7.50 Ascot) looking like fair value for a big run. He in my opinion has been looking for a seventh furlong and today he gets it. His trainer could not possibly be in better form 62% getting placed and over 40% winning in the last 14 days and he just looks much too big a price tonight

MR MATTHEWS 1 pts EACH WAY @ 14/1

The last one of the day is a bit of a dart in the form of MALACHIM MIST (8.20 Ascot). He has dropped to a nice mark based on some of last years efforts (especially the Nottingham run) and he shaped well for a long way on his re-appearance. One or two of the yards runners have really needed that first run and if that has sharpened him up he could be massively over-priced in this tonight. Frankie takes the ride and no one rides Ascot better. Interesting.

MALACHIM MIST 1 PT EACH WAY @ 25/1

Because I am so strong on STOMP, FLOW and KNIGHT OWL I have thrown them into some multiples as well in the hoping of a game changer!

Really busy afternoon presenting Timeform Radio today. Hope you all enjoy the action and that we have managed to find one or two winners again!

Have a good day,

All the best,

MG

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British Champions Day and the return of the blog!

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Ok first off many apologies. The summer has been so busy I’ve struggled to blog anywhere near as much as I would like. Now the sporting world slows down a bit I have a bit more time on my hands to concentrate on getting some words down. As most of you know my bread and butter through the winter is largely the all-weather so I’m very much looking forward to getting my teeth into those cards that most people hate! I spent a big part of this week doing the videos of the last few weeks and my Proform horse watcher is overloaded with horses that have caught the eye in a positive or negative way.

Qipco British Champions Day takes place down at Ascot this afternoon with over 4 million pounds up for grabs in prize money. Excellent racing that for me brings the flat racing season largely to a close. The ground is set to be pretty testing with soft conditions on the round course and potentially good to soft on the straight course which does drain a lot better.

One or two small angles in to the card today. There is a lack of a confirmed front-runner in the sprint (2.20) and that may set the race up for JACK DEXTER. He has returned to form the last twice and conditions will suit him down to the ground. He is likely to sit close to the pace and Graham Lee can try to kick on two out, he is a fair each way price at 5/1,

In the feature race of the day the Champions Stakes (4.05) I do think at a short price it is worth taking the favorite Cirrus Des Aigles. He has no doubt been one of the top ten furlong performers of the last few year. His performances in the early part of the year however were disappointing. He does have conditions to suit this afternoon and will relish the soft ground but no seven-year old has one this since the 1800’s so he has to be taken on. If you got on the 8/1 about FARHH a week ago you are sitting in a lovely situation and although he has his absence to overcome, I was really taken with his performance in the Lockinge and I think he might take all the beating.

There is a superb supporting jumps card down at Cheltenham this afternoon which looks incredibly tricky. I am very much looking forward to the chasing debut of DARK LOVER though in the novice chase at 5.00. He has looked a chaser in the making for some time and I will be disappointed if he doesn’t win.

Let’s move proceedings on to the big meeting at Wolverhampton tonight. Five horses from the http://www.proformracing.com horse watcher go on the card there tonight and most of them are over priced.

Ajeeb – 6.20 Wolverhampton

A little bit of a flyer as Ajeeb will need to improve significantly on what he has been achieving of late. Michael Scudamore’s charge has dropped massively in the weights though in recent times (peaked at 80, runs off 58) which makes of him particular interest over the coming weeks from a yard that likes to land a tickle. He shaped a bit better than the bare form suggests last time despite being beaten over ten lengths and I think he is over priced in a weak race this evening. There is plenty of 16/1 available.

AJEEB 1 pt E/W @ 16/1.

7.50 Wolverhampton

I like the look of two against the field here. The two that caught my eye last time were AVAILABLE and HANNAH’S TURN. The former has been running with great credit of marks in the high 70’s through the summer and races off a much lower mark on the all-weather. He got collared late last time over seven furlongs by a heavily backed jolly and the drop to six tonight may well play to his strengths. Hannah’s Turn improved rapidly last winter with several excellent performances at Southwell. On the back of a break she returned with a nice effort last time when traveling strongly through the race which suggests she may well have improved again. There is every chance she is being tee’d up for another tilt at Southwell but she is overpriced today and I will take these two against the field.

AVAILABLE 1.5 PTS WIN @ 6/1, HANNAH’S TURN 1 PT WIN @ 10/1

The last one has just been called a non runner so I will keep that under my hat for another day.

Good luck with all your bets today, Blog will be back on a daily basis from here on in

MG

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Weekly Review!

pro5

Morning peeps. I trust that you are all well and enjoying what is shaping up to be an excellent summer of sport (no Coral TV pun intended). Really enjoying the action from the ICC Champions Trophy. The outright market is the most out of shape market I have ever seen on a sporting event! It still amazes me how over bet England are in just about every sporting event. The value at the start was with the Indians but that has well and truly gone now. Good to hear the tones of Wooders at all the grounds as well. He really is the best in the business by some way.

Look back at the first ten days of June on the racing and things have gone pretty well this month. I actually started this months figures off on the 31st as I’d settled May’s books and I’m glad I did as JUST PAUL went in at 14/1. He’d been on the radar for a long time having gone in the notebook last year. Things finally fell right and he got the month off to a flyer. A poor two days at Epsom except for the place money on GALILEO ROCK in the Derby. On the 4th things didn’t exactly go to plan as decent bets on ROUGH ROCK at Yarmouth and HONOURED at Ripon went west, although the Honoured losses were recouped very quickly when he won well at Nottingham on Sunday. On the 7th MANKINI landed a max as well as Alceus who won well again then AL MANAAL was as close to a certainty as I have ever found yesterday at Brighton.

Proform continues to amaze me. It is a really useful piece of kit and if you havent had the opportunity to test it out yet you must do so. Check out the website for more details. http://www.proformracing.com Simon will answer any questions you may have.

Here are some stats for you from Proform for the last 14 days:

Exceptional win and place strike rates with at least 5 runner:

William Haggas 73.33%

David Rees 66.67%

Malcom Saunders 62.50 %

Having gone through the racing in some detail today I have manged to come up with a few selections. I think that RAUSHAN will probably win at Salisbury (3.30). Only had one start and goes into handicaps on a fair mark with un-tapped potential. MY GIGI looks overpriced to me in the 4.05. The two best bets though look to be GHANAIAN (4.35) and PRESS ROOM (9.00 Ling) the latter being the most interesting horse running anywhere today. The colt by Street Cry only had two starts as a two-year old, finishing fourth on debut before winning fairly comfortably at Wolverhampton. An opening mark of 73 does not look harsh in any way shape or form and with the potential improvement in the tank means he looks like he could be a very well handicapped horse off that mark. He comes out miles clear on the PROFORM POWER RATINGS for this race aswell and the 4/1 this morning was snapped up as the nap of the day.

A couple of horses to go into the notebook this week. FIFTYSHADES OFGREY and SUNRISE STAR were both Maiden eye catchers on Friday as was Archive at Leicester last Monday. Blessing Box went into the notebook on handicap debut at Yarmouth too.

Outside of racing it has been a great week of sport. The Bruins swept the Penguins 4-0 to take their place in a second Stanley Cup Final in three years. Going to be another couple of great weeks and late nights as they battle the Chicago Blackhawks.

Must crack on today, got an incredibly busy few days. Coral TV this morning followed by Timeform Radio tonight, then I’m off to Great Yarmouth for a couple of days of presenting before back for cricket at the weekend. There are some very interesting entries over the coming days so I will keep you up to date.

All the best today.

Be Lucky

MG

pro5

Friday 23rd November!

Morning campers. Well what a fun day yesterday was! the turkey, spuds and gravy was flowing here as we were treated to a couple of NFL crackers for thanksgiving.

My day started with the treat of popping to my nearest Ladbrokes shop, the kind lady behind the counter kindly told me their shop price for the Redskins was 21/11 when I said “bugger, wish I had more cash on me” she looked a little startled.

The hardest game to watch without doubt was the first as Houston never really looked capable of stopping Detroit. For the neutral it was a superb start to the triple header, first the first leg of the treble it was painful to watch and we probably owe the officials a few quid in commission after some barmy penalty calls.

The Redskins game was just about dead and buried by half time. RG3 was imperious and you have to say with their schedule the Skins are still live runners for the NFC East title. My NFL punting guru (@bickers56) keeps telling me I am mad for thinking this, but the Redskins host the Giants next Sunday which all of a sudden is the classic 6 pointer. I would just like to raise a glass collectively to Skybet, Ladbrokes and the lemmings on Betfair that offered baffling prices. Do your research next time. 😉 Thanks for all your messages, it seems plenty of you followed me in on the Redskins and on the treble so we’ve picked up a nice few quid this morning.

My best bet of the day today comes in the form of THE TATTING (6.10 Wolverhampton) He is a progressive horse and looks to be well in under a penalty to me this evening. I expect him to win again. I will be having a saver on Aragorn Rouge as I’ve backed him the last twice and he probably should have won last week.

I really like the chance of KAYLEE (4.10 Wolverhampton) Gary Moore’s lightly raced three-year old has slowly got the hang of things and actually travelled really well last time before being hampered and being given no real chance of winning. This basement mark of 50 looks very nice indeed.She was only half a stride behind Venetia’s Dream that day yet she is priced up as 3/1 fav? Prices are wrong and Kaylee should run a big race and each way at 10/1 is a pretty solid bet for me!

I have also backed IDOL DEPUTY (7.10 Wolv). Looks progressive and a little over priced.

I should wish my sister a happy birthday! She’s currently sunning herself in Australia so at the time I’m writing this she is almost certainly pissed!

Be lucky today

MG

 

From Frankel to NFL Sunday!

What a spectacle yesterday was. 38,000 people packed into Ascot racecourse to see the last run from the horse of a lifetime and he didn’t disappoint. After missing the break and giving away five lengths at the start he sauntered through the race and then came alongside Cirrus Des Aigles on the bridle. Ground irrelevant, opposition irrelevant he just takes it in his stride and cruises to victory. I have been cursing myself for the error that meant I wasn’t there. It was great to see so many youngsters in the crowd and hopefully a new generation of racing fans was born at Ascot yesterday. How I wish they had chosen to go to Santa Anita for the Breeders Cup. Imagine the media frenzy and the British following over there.

Frankel the perfect 14 from 14, the best horse I have ever and will ever see. He is off to strut around the stud and do his thing…….happy retirement fella.

After Chelsea and West Ham did the hard work the shorty (Gooners) let the treble down. How on earth were Chelsea 9/5??? West Ham were gravy! Irons!

From a punting point of view we continue to bang our heads against the crossbar. Bold cross drifted out to 12/1 then ran a blinder to finish…..yes you guessed it…..2nd. The same fate fell upon Galaxy Rock (2nd) and Hold On Julio (3rd). They travelled like the two best horses in the race and both looked like winning turning for home. Levi Draper got punted off the boards though and made it a winning day.

You would think I should be in the Bahamas right now with the amount of big priced runners-up I’ve had in the last two weeks.

There is only one notebook runner going today and it requires a large leap of faith in the form of REPLICATOR (5.15 Bath). He hasn’t won for a while but just showed last time that all is not forgotten. He won off 71 a few years back but is now doing his racing off just 42 on the turf which means he is 4lbs out of the handicap today. He is far less exposed on the turf though with only 13 starts compared to 38 on the all-weather. He likes to race with the pace which is a plus around here and has stall 7 which is fine. It might be barmy and on Betfair he could be any price you like but he is generally 33/1 and is worth noting and following. I’ll be having a few quid on each way.

I’m off to splutter my way through the day on Timeform Radio as I’m full of cold and flu again.

I have two selections for you tonight on the NFL live games.

Game one ARIAN FOSTER to go OVER 99.5 yards with SKYBET

Game two TOM BRADY to go OVER 300.5 yards with SKYBET.
Will try to update todays blog with more in-depth NFL review when I arrive in London. This time next week I will be on route to wembley to watch the great master at his best! I simply cannot wait!

Peace out, have a lucky day and listen in to Timeform this afternoon if you get the chance.

MG (@markagrantham)

Super Saturday….SUPER FRANKEL!

A quick recap of yesterdays action saw that Dutch Masterpiece is very much still ahead of the handicapper. Hay Dude got absolutely smashed off the boards, travelled like a dream and found nil. Population went about half a mile then O’Regan was looking down and pulled him up and Dark Lover was ridiculously well handicapped off a mark of 120!

The biggest frustration of the day was the run of TARO TYWOD at Wolverhampton. She travelled like a dream tucked in on the inside but you could see what was coming a mile off. Shane Kelly had nowhere to go and was trapped on heels for all of a furlong whilst in the meantime the favourite got a clear around the outside and sprinted clear. Once she got out she finished a decisive second and rewarded the each way play at a big price. She is back to form and is very well in on her maiden form. I think she would have won with a clear, but we will never know. At Cheltenham yesterday after further study I talked myself into backing Viking Blonde and Jewel of The West at 22/1 and 14/1. They both finished second and the crossbar once again is lying on the floor broken in pieces.

Super Saturday really is that today. I nearly choked on my porridge when I saw Mattie Batch on the morning line today. Matt’s a top bloke who’s always willing to lend a hand with anything. He turned out for my team in our charity cricket match in aid of McMillan last month. He deserves a break and looks nailed on to be a quality racing broadcaster as I know that is what he wants to do. Hope Carruthers wins today pal.

Absolute top class flat action from Ascot, jumping from Cheltenham and some very big games in the footy as we return from an international break. A break is what I expect the idiot from Leeds to be getting courtesy of her majesty after last nights pathetic behaviour at Hillsborough. I don’t think they should be overly hard on Leeds. I do however think they should come down hard on the stewards and the police. It was a Yorkshire derby on a Friday night and the fans had been in the pub most of the day……..you do the maths.

Of note in the football today, in the early kick off I do think Chelsea are a massive price. They are as big as 9/5 in places this morning and the Spuds have struggled at home to beat much lesser sides. I don’t bet on football very often but that looks much too big a price to me?

Today’s racing revolves around the best racehorse I have ever seen in my lifetime and probably ever will. Frankel is a machine with a glorious galloping stride that seems to go two to all others ones. I know the ground is an imponderable but I hope Tom is patient with him and glides to success. I would absolutely love to see him come upsides Cirrus Des Aigles on the bridle and then just skip 6 lengths clear. Due to a personal clerical error I’m working on Coral TV today rather than mixing it with the other 38,000 people as Ascot. Don’t choke on the hog roast you lucky gits.

The race didn’t really pan out for BOLD CROSS (6.20 Wolv) last time but tonight’s race should suit a little better. He is still feasibly handicapped from a win point fo view and the 5lb claim of Robert Williams (not the singer I may add, he would be claiming at least 50lbs) is a big plus. There is plenty of pace in this race and his hold up style may just come into play once again if the young apprentice can weave a passage. He looks a spot of value and a good each way bet at 9/1 and you might get some tasty prices on Betfair.

LEVI DRAPER (7.50 Wolv) is a horse you will know we’ve backed on his last two starts. He got absolutely no run last time and was desperately unlucky. The step down to 5f is a slight concern but this is such a weak race that I’ll be tucking in. Clear run please Hayley.

I’ve found it hard to find a bet at Ascot. In the first few races they have all beaten each other at some stage and it is hard to find an angle. Excelebration should win the QE2 but is no sort of price.  I do think there are a couple of runners that are overpriced in the big apprentice handicap to finish the card (4.45) and they are at opposite ends of the weights. MY FREEDOM and KINGSCROFT both look at little overpriced and will both definitely go on the ground. Might be worth half a point on each at 25/1 and 20/1 respectively.

I was hoping to back THAT’LLDOBOY (2.30 Chelt) this morning at around 7/1. It wasn’t until I turned on the morning line with blurry eyes that I realised that Pricewise had tipped him. He looks on a really nice mark and if he gets to about 9/2 or 5/1 nearer post time I will probably back him.

The main race of the day at Cheltenham is the 3.40. I think it’s a real tough race for punters as I think the market is about right. HOLD ON JULIO was a real progressive chaser last term and could prove this year to be a bit better than 144. GALAXY ROCK also looks like he may be better than his current mark of 137 and of the other ones at big prices I think DARNA is progressive. I’ll probably back all three at 6/1, 9/1 and 16/1 for a profit.

BIg day for the hammers today too. We have a real tough few weeks coming up and it is imperative that we take three points in these sorts of game at home. Southampton have been leaking goals left right and centre so fingers crossed the even money will get rewarded. For those of you that like a muggy Saturday treble I would throw in a London mix……WEST HAM, CHELSEA, ARSENAL……pays about 9/1.

Enjoy an absolute feast of sport today! Hope you find plenty of winners.

I’ll be on Twitter all day @markagrantham

MG