2018 horses to follow blog with a difference. 21 Horses to add to your trackers for the coming weeks. Photo credit to @FranAltoftPhoto

With the festival just days away, most of the racing community is firmly in the jumps mould but for myself this is my favourite time of year for a multitude of reasons. It’s like the last hour before dark when you’re carp fishing. Simply the best time of the sporting year. Not only do we have Cheltenham and Aintree but also the start of the cricket season, the snooker World Champs and of course The Masters at Augusta. Throw in to the mix all the football ante-post bets winning or losing and of course the main course is the start of the flat season!

I seem to be looking forward to it more than ever this time around. Probably due to the fact that I missed a lot of it last year due to my work commitments abroad. This time though I am raring to go.

So I thought I would do something a little different. There are so many “horses to follow” pieces that you can read. Most of them concentrate on potential stars or three-year-olds likely to make it to pattern company from handicaps. What I’ve done is compile a list of 21 horses from my Proform Horse Watcher that will hopefully win you some money over the first few weeks of the turf season. They are  a mixture of promising types, well handicapped horses at the bottom of the scale and indeed a couple that seem ready to win either on turf or the all-weather. I have also thrown a few wild cards in at the bottom that may also make an unexpected appearance in the winners enclosure in 2018.

The Three-Year-Olds

Rather than strength of interest I will do them in age order and you can easily add them to your trackers.

BATTLE LINES – JAMES TATE – OR 77

Nothing too flashy to start with. A horse that has had six starts to date and seems to be better than his current mark of 77. I’m not pointing you in the direction of a superstar and he has been well found (favourite first three handicap runs) but I believe he is better than 77. His main trait so far has been his keenness in his races. If you go back to his handicap debut at Newcastle he clearly didn’t relish a stiff ten furlongs so the drop back to eight/nine will be his optimum at the moment. It looks very much like we could squeeze a win out of him before going for some headgear. He actually should have won at Wolverhampton last time in my opinion, just getting trapped in a pocket as the leader took advantage on a day it paid to be handy. He will be winning soon.

DANDIESQUE – RICHARD HANNON – OR 67

A nice handicapper for the upcoming season to follow. I’m sure she went into a few notebooks on the back of her second at Salisbury under Ryan Moore back in September on handicap debut. That booking alone may have hinted Hannon thought she was better than her opening mark of 67. She was lazy early on but as the race progressed she warmed to the task but got into a bit of bother against the rail before finishing nicely. Next time out she got messed about at the start and on her final start she was given a very clever ride out the back at Lingfield. She was dropped 1lb for that last run too. I think we have a potentially well handicapped filly on our hands here who could win us a few races over a mile this season.

GALACTIC – RICHARD HANNON – OR 61

Awarded an opening mark of 68 on the back of three average runs in novice events mid-season. He has dropped 7lbs in the weights on the back of six further win-less efforts. Several of those though caught my attention and although beaten by five lengths on his final start at HQ, the winner there was absolutely lobbed in and I’m sure we have something to work with. He’s by Roderic O’Connor. His progeny all show a level stakes profit in all race types.

All-Weather +95.50 pts

Turf +82.44 pts

Interestingly though stick them on soft ground and his figures improve (+125.09 pts). So I will be interested to see him appear early season when there is some soft in the description. Either way with a winter in him, growth and natural progression I think the Hannon’s have another potentially well handicapped animal to go to war with.

INDIAN WARRIOR – ED DUNLOP – OR 72

Looks a sure-fire winner waiting to happen. He was backed off the boards at Wolverhampton in September (first AW run) but got into all sorts of trouble turning for home and had no chance. On the back of that he was too keen to finish off up the hill at Newcastle and then hated being out the back at Chelmsford on his last run. I found it interesting that he was allowed to drift to 25/1 on this occasion having been so well backed previously. It was no surprise to see him out the back early. He has been gelded on the back of that run and given some time off. We may well see a different horse when he returns, but be very aware of when the money comes for him.

SANDAMA – RICHARD FAHEY – OR 51

One right at the bottom of the scale to add to the squad. Pedigree suggests that at least a mile but likely further will really suit the daughter of Footstepsinthesand. It was very interesting how she was campaigned over mostly six furlongs at two. Even on her final start (most interesting) at Newcastle over seven, she struggled to lie up with them early doors. The further she went the better she went in a race where the front two had gone clear. She finished with loads of running left in her and can be marked up for that run even though the handicapper dropped her another 3lbs. When stepped up in trip this season I think she could be absolutely chucked in off 51.

TRANQUIL SOUL – DAVID LANIGAN – OR 65

Another filly but this time for David Lanigan. David always gives his horses plenty of time to mature and they tend to blossom as they get to three and sometimes even four. The real eye-catching moment was her run at Kempton in September where she showed that she is clearly going to be better than her current mark at some stage (held up off the pace and flew home) ridden by Ted Durcan the last three runs, I like the angle of horses finishing their two-year-old careers at Chelmsford as you can put a line through so many races there for one reason or another. She will win races this season.

ZOFFINIA – RICHARD FAHEY – OR 57

Most punters find it difficult to get excited about a filly rated 57 that has shown very little so far but for me it makes the game at times. If you have a spare five minutes today, take the time to watch back her videos. All five runs were at seven furlongs or a mile and in all of them she shaped like she will be much better suited to middle distances. Her pedigree also hints that this will aid her too. Lots of people see Zoffany as a sire and think speed. All his best form was up to a mile and his peak RPR was 120 at Ascot over that trip. His progeny though show level stakes profits when going over that trip (9f +112.97 and 10f +112.69 to BFSP) and a near 15% strike rate. Given the stamina on the dam side she is sure to appreciate going further this year and I’m sure Fahey will find her some juicy openings of a lowly mark. Exciting.

The Four-Year-Olds

DIAMOND BEAR – SIR MARK PRESCOTT – OR 68

A rather typical Sir Mark slow burner who I’m pretty sure is a bit quirky. He has shaped several times that he might be a slow maturing horse that wants further and probably some head-gear. It’s interesting that you can make the case that he seemed to really enjoy the undulations of both Brighton and Epsom. He arguably would have won at Epsom but for getting in bother at a crucial stage (possibly his own fault). If you then take into account his run behind the very well handicapped PLY at Kempton (hampered at crucial stage when making ground) and his interesting run on his final start. I think he will laugh at this mark over 1m4f plus this season. The blinkers haven’t been tried yet either and I think he could really make giant strides this year. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’s rated in the mid 80’s before we know it.

MAM’SELLE – WILLIAM HAGGAS – OR 89

The daughter of Teofilo didn’t race at two but made giant strides in a short space of time last year. Winning at Lingfield off 72, she then won the Ladies Derby at Newbury off 80 before running a massively eye-catching race in a big handicap at Ascot is September. That performance hinted that a bit further may see her step up into the big time this season. You can ignore her run in France in November as the ground was worse than a three-mile bog round Ffos Las. She should pay her way in 2018.

NICK VEDDER – MICHAEL WIGHAM – OR 73 (AW) 67 (TURF)

I like him. Moved to Michael Wigham from Karl Burke at Christmas and ran a very interesting race on New Years Eve when travelling strongly but never really put in to it. Jockey reported he hung right (eyebrows). He then ran in one of the most bizarre races of the winter when Testa Rossa actually behaved like his name and duly throttled clear. This caught several of the jockeys out shall we say and they ultimately had no chance. He was due to run at Wolverhampton on the 23rd February but managed to bag stall 11 over seven furlongs so was duly pulled out. I think he’s a well handicapped horse who should be kept on side over the coming weeks.

ODEN – NICK GIFFORD – OR 85

One of my favourite winners of last year when he bounded up the hill at Brighton in September on his final start for Roger Varian. The ground was worse than the description that day and one of my favourite angles on turf is to tuck into Lope De Vega’s progeny the first time they encounter bad ground. Admittedly he didn’t beat much and the 9lb slap from the handicapper is far from ideal but I just think he’s interesting. He was sold for 52,000 gns in the HIT sale on the back of this and having gone to Nick’s there is a chance he may now be switched to jumping. Given that performance, I’ll be very  much looking forward to seeing him on soft ground over further this year. Could be a dark horse for pattern races or a big handicap.

OUT OF ORDER – TIM EASTERBY – OR 63

Won’t go into too much detail as I’ve written about him before. He’s a well handicapped horse but he’s been off the track for a year now so has clearly had some problems. I’ve dropped Tim an email to see if he’s still in training, I wonder if I’ll get a reply, will update if I do.

PIONEERTOWN – SIR MARK PRESCOTT – OR 83

He’s another one to add to the list of rapid Sir Mark improvers. He won really nicely twice at the back-end of the year at Newcastle off marks of 73 and 77. Now rated 83, he is sure to improve again this year for going a bit further. He could be a serious weapon going two miles this summer. He has taken a real shine to artificial surfaces so he may even be targeted at some of the bigger races back at Newcastle.

SCUZEME – DAVID BARRON – OR 74

A few of reasons for including Scuzeme in the list. Firstly I’m convinced he’s a well treated animal off his current mark of 74. He in my opinion, has also shaped several times like he will improve a bit for going up to six furlongs having raced exclusively at five. Mr Barron is a master at getting the best out of these sprinting types as they mature and that may well have just been the plan all along. He ran much better than the book suggests on his re-appearance last year behind Justanotherbottle who was chucked in and is now rated 94 (21lbs higher) so it may be that catching him fresh will pay dividends. I’d be very keen on him first time out if he’s upped to six furlongs, but equally an interesting sprinter to follow this season.

STORM OVER – ROBERT COWELL – OR 91

Not the most obvious type for this article given he’s already rated 91. He has shown a real liking for soft ground and has been pulled out a few times when it’s been quicker. He is another one who may sneak under the radar in big sprint handicaps or even pattern company when the rain comes this summer so should be included.

WARRIOR’S SPIRIT – RICHARD HANNON – OR 70

Won his maiden at Newbury over seven furlongs back in September 2016. Awarded an opening mark of 81 he has raced at seven furlongs but mostly a mile. Now you see loads of horses when watching racing that shape like they want further but every now and again you will come across one that you are convinced could be dropped in trip. He is the classic case. I think he’d be really interesting tried over six furlongs. Either way, having dropped 11lbs in the weights we now have a well handicapped beast to add to the squad.

WELOOF – JOHN BUTLER – OR 60

Thought I’d finish the four-year-olds off with a bang. A ridiculously well handicapped animal that has dropped a total of 21lbs in a about six months. If you are wondering how he made the cut, watch the video of his run at Lingfield on 31st December. Obviously he is connected with gamblers so the bigger guess may well be what is the going day but he is just too well in to ignore and I expect him to pay for at least one trip to America this year.

Five-Year-Olds

ALAADEL – STUART WILLIAMS – OR 85

I get to start this section with the horse I originally was most looking forward to seeing from the list. He’s a beautiful son of Dubawi that caught my eye every time he ran last year shaping like he was running over a trip way too short for him.  Francesca Altoft got a couple of cracking pictures of him at Newbury.

Well he proved more than up to the six furlong task when given an absolute peach of a ride from Jim Crowley at Newbury in October on soft ground. Coming from off the pace with a well-timed run to win off a mark of 79.

Given the potential to improve when stepping up in trip I was also really interested to see him entered in the HIT sale at Tatts on the back of this. Not surprisingly he was a little out of my price range and went for 90,000 gns. He was purchased by Mr Morley and has been sent to Stuart Williams. This for the purpose of my punting is not really the best news as the new owner is well-connected to some high-profile gamblers but nevertheless,  I’m sure he’s a well handicapped animal and he will be really interesting in some big handicaps over seven furlongs and upwards this year!

FOREST LAKES – PAUL D’ARCY – OR 57

Talking of big gambles, that leads me nicely on to this lady. Originally with Godolphin for three maiden runs in 2015 she was given a mark of 71. She then spent 2016 in the hands of George Scott. Having tumbled a stone in the weights she re-appeared in January last year having moved to Paul D’arcy for 10,000 gns in the HIT sale. Watch the run at Wolverhampton 13th Jan 17. Very interesting. Clearly though, she has had problems as we haven’t seen her since. If she is still in training, then when she re-appears, she is very well treated.

FOREVER YOURS – DEAN IVORY – OR 58

Looks fairly well lobbed in to me off a career low mark of 58. Absolutely tanked through his race at Lingfield on New Years Eve and should have won but for getting messed about on the bend as the winner kicked for home. Non runner ten days later and hasn’t been seen since which is often the case when connections want an obviously unlucky run to be forgotten. May have just been given a break, but should be winning real soon if all is well.

The Wild Cards!

In this section I’ve just thrown a few random horses in here that are not very obvious but are in my Proform Horse Watcher and are interesting for one reason or another moving forward. I won’t go into too much detail but will give a rough guide.

ANOTHER ANGEL (72) is trained now by Antony Brittain. Shaped like the best horse in the race on final start for Michael Dods at Newcastle and is probably better than his mark of 72. APEX PREDATOR was punted off the boards on the third start in a maiden angle but was withdrawn on vet’s advice. Clearly better than we have seen in his two starts to date and one to keep track of. JUST US TWO (76) finished on the bridle at Musselburgh in September before moving to Mark Pattinson. Had one run for Mark (100/1) and got thrashed out of sight, dropped 5lbs for that run he has now moved to Phil McEntee and should be monitored. MAD ROSE (50) was rated 72 when arriving in this country a year ago. Has fallen down the ladder quicker than Sunderland have the football league and after some “interesting” rides will no doubt be funding a trip to the Bahamas at some point in the near future. POETIC FORCE (84 aw, 71 turf) is an enigma. Been withdrawn a couple of times due to soft ground over the last year when I’m convinced he absolutely wants it soft. Would have gone very close to winning at Epsom but for terrible luck in running on heavy ground in October. On turf, in soft ground he’s a winner waiting to happen. SHAMAR (55) is one to keep on side having been added to the wrong trip/interesting rides list at the back-end of the year. I’ll finish with THIRD TIME LUCKY (95) who I’m convinced is better than his current mark and should exploit it at some point. He has an entry in the Lincoln which is a meeting his trainer does particularly well at.

I hope all of the above with provide you with some exciting anticipation for the upcoming flat season. I am well and truly ready now. These are just a handful of the entries in my Proform and hopefully they will bag us a few quid over the coming weeks. Enjoy the festival, I don’t really have too much to shout about in terms of ante-post positions this year. DIDTHEYLEAVEYOUOUTTO is just about my strongest winner in the bumper. I really like Footpad although I think we will get at least 13/8 maybe bigger about him on the day. Wicklow Brave will probably out run his odds in the Champion Hurdle. I also think Minella Rocco is well worth backing in all the various place markets and at big exchange prices for the Gold Cup. So many of them have questions to answer and just like last year, he’s likely to run past plenty of them up the hill. I think Wonderful Charm will run a huge race in the Foxhunters but my main bet on Friday will be Apple’s Shakira.

Have a wonderful few weeks and be lucky!

MG

 

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Wednesday 3rd Jan

Morning all. It has been an interesting few days across all sports. Well done to those of you that backed Native Robin the other day, he was so weak in the betting throughout the day, but the result was never really in any doubt. He absolutely tanked through the race and could have been called the winner a long way out. The SP of 11/1 (16 BFSP) was a decent touch for those of you with BOG.

On the NHL front, good to see Vegas and Boston continue to win and contract in price. Some of the bookmakers reacted to the bets and prices from the other day, some are still sleeping. Hills cut Boston from 33/1 into 14’s within a day or so. They were mightily impressive again last night winning 5-1 on the road in New York.

Trainers with runners today that have a win and place strike rate of above 50% in the last 10 days:

Nick Williams 75%

Warren Greatrex 72.73%

Kim Bailey 63.64%

Donald McCain 52%

Tim Easterby 50%

A couple of eye catchers worth noting going today. CRITICAL THINKING (7.10) would have gone very close to winning last time had he not got caught out off a slow pace. He’s well handicapped on his old form. Back up in trip with Cameron Noble claiming 3lbs off his back, he looks a cracking bet today at about 9/2. I have had a small saver on SANAM in the same race who could be absolutely lobbed in on his first handicap start for Ed Dunlop.

At Southwell today there are a few speculative wagers to look out for too. In the 1.10 FABELLA BERE steps up in trip. She got outpaced and plugged on last time over a mile. She is bred to like the surface and the slower tempo today might find her in the mix. She’s about 20’s on Betfair. Later on in the final race (3.40) the two complete outsiders MINING ROCKS and GONEWITHTHEWIND are both of the smallest interest. Mining Rocks has never been here before and is bred to appreciate the surface. He’s on a tumbling mark and another 7lbs is taken off by the young rider. Gonewiththewind has dropped to a career low mark, the rider takes off another 3lbs, he’s down in grade. They are 34’s and 60’s on the machine, so I’ll be having small plays at those prices with slightly better interests in the place markets.

Good luck today.

MG

As winter draws in, let’s tuck in to the good stuff! Southwell anyone?

Firstly thanks for all the feedback on last weeks blog post. It is great to see how many people are taking an interest in not only Proform but also the different approaches you can add to your betting portfolio. Things are going well again in September with winners up to 22/1 so far. The system had a good day on Monday throwing up winners at 9/4, 7/1 and 14/1 as well as a 10/1 winner on Tuesday. Having had a brief conversation with Simon on Friday I can confirm that using the evening before prices makes an enormous difference to the P&L. My estimation was nowhere near as much as reality. As I mentioned Simon only had the evening before prices back as far as May 2016, so for 17 months of data. Having shown a profit of 813.81 from 1st Jan 2010 on the figures I had, Simon confirmed that the actual evening before price profit since last year was +1432.56 which is staggering. There is obviously a deduction to come off this from rule 4’s but it is only minimal in reality. So as things stand, I’m hopefully on to something very interesting. I will continue to monitor this.

As I write this on Tuesday evening this month is currently +35.79 pts in profit. Although not following it as closely, I believe the DTR system is running at about the same sort of figure.

So what next? What’s the next angle to look at? Well given the time of the year and with the flat coming to an end, I thought that I’d have a look at the winter action but hold on, no I’m not like 90% of Twitter. I refuse to start talking about the Cheltenham Festival in September! Although having said that, I do plan to have a look at the festival stats at some point in the next week or two. If you know me well, you know that when it comes to the winter it is all about the all-weather Racing! To narrow my search down I am going to have a good look at Southwell which I’m sure there are a few angles.

So where to start with trying to find a profitable angle when it comes to betting at Southwell. Well my immediate thought is with my own involvement with horses at the track and pals horses that have been shrewdly purchased. We’ve had some wonderful success there, and a lot of it comes from the fact that we managed to get hold of horses that were by Speightstown. Southwell is our only track in the UK that comes close to replicating the conditions of dirt racing in the US and the progeny of Speightstown have an excellent record on the fibresand surface, especially first time up.

So this got me thinking, how do horses perform on the surface based on which country they are bred from. This was my first query into Proform, again using 1st Jan 2010 onwards. The results were as expected, lots of red numbers all over the screen apart from three countries that had the following numbers to BFSP:

France +102.60

Canada +10.73

USA + 649.01

On the back of these numbers I clustered these three countries together and had a look at plenty of the usual variables. Race distance, age etc. The only real variable that had a large impact on the numbers was the race type. Again, lots of red numbers all over the screen, but three very decent plus numbers as follows:

Auction Races: +131.72

Handicaps: +630.34

Maiden Races: +173.34

So once I drilled down all the variables these are the final figures that came out from my system builder results:

Horses from either USA, FRANCE or CANADA, in all AUCTIONS, MAIDENS & HANDICAPS at SOUTHWELL on the AW.

1706 Qualifiers, 292 winners @17.12% strike rate. +£765.48 to £1 at stakes at BFSP and a 44.87% ROI.

Whilst thinking that age and race distance may have an impact on the results, they made very little difference to the outcome.

All in all this equates to an average profit of 109.35pts per year. Which to many people will not seem like a great deal, but remember we are looking at putting together a portfolio of profitable systems that win without you having to do any kind of work other than updating the Proform software and putting the bets on. So this is another one to add to the portfolio and one that I will also monitor over the coming months.


Whilst looking at the above system my mind starting to think about another angle I constantly refer too. It largely comes from an old hunch I used to have that sprinters that ran well and turned up to the track again within a few days seemed to have a good record. Although I never actually had any stats to back this up, was it a myth or reality? So off I went again… searching through Proform System Builder looking for another angle.

My findings were not quite what I hoped but still showed a profitable angle. I basically looked at all horses from Jan 1st 2010 that had finished in the first three of their race and were running again within seven days. Across all racing this showed a very small profit. Once I started to play with all the variables again I managed to start to eek out the negative elements of another potential system.

In the end if you eliminated all races on the all-weather and concentrated solely on turf racing this improved things. Once again, then just using handicaps and removing all other races, the profit grew.

In the end these were the final figures I got too without too much effort since Jan 1st 2010:

12,452 qualifiers, 2,685 winners at a strike rate of 21.56%. +£344.45 to £1 stakes. +2.77% ROI. So this system whilst I think has some legs, doesn’t currently offer enough a profit for me to be interested in it. I will continue to tweek this until I find something more robust and at the moment can be parked on the “in progress” shelf. I also on the back of this started to play around with winners LTO that were returning to the track within seven days. It returned far less qualifiers obviously but very similar figures in the P&L, so this is another one that I will play around with over the coming months.

If anyone reading this has an idea they would like me to look at, I’m more than happy to delve in to the system builder and have a play around.

Hope some of this inspires you to start to have play with Proform yourself. If you have any questions or comments I’m always available on Twitter: @markagrantham. Roll on the fibresand season!

All the best

Mark

 

 

 

Pomme’s time to shine & a large priced dart…

Proform

I’m looking forward to Pomme switching to a mares race ahead of the 2.50 at Carlisle tomorrow. She has shown lots of promise on all her starts so far and I’m pretty sure if you look at the figures that you can make a good case for her to be favourite in this race.

If you want more details on why I like her then you can read back through previous posts. Which One Is Which and Lastbutnotleast make this an interesting contest. The latter has a penalty to carry but has shaped like this step up in trip will suit, whilst the former is under priced on what she’s achieved.

They clearly had a choice here with Pomme of going for a similar race to last time and getting her a nice mark or going for a mares race with a big chance of a gaining a win. The way she travels should suit Carlisle and she’ll hopefully be the last off the bridle before going on to score. Bet365 have opened up at 3/1. I think she should be favourite.

Elsewhere, I do have one of the interesting horses running today in the form of CASTANEA (5.20 Kempton). Now let’s not go mad, he’s a 42 rated 18 race maiden. So let that sink in, this is not a bank job and it has health risks attached to it but I do think there is a case to be made.

I get the feeling there may have been one or two issues in 2016 as he started to look awkward. He was given a six month break on the back of his last run in July before making a very interesting return over an inadequate 8.5f at Wolverhampton on Jan 26th. Here are my Proform notes.

This is probably one to come with a health warning. An 18 race maiden that has clearly had a few issues. Throw in the fact that he’s now rated just 42 and this should not be one to go over board with but certainly of interest as we’ll get some juice in the price because of the profile.

I’d urge you to watch the replay of the run at Wolverhampton on January 26th 17, which was his first run for 6 months having previously been seen running terribly at Ffos Las and Brighton in mid summer. Now watch closely. The first thing to note is that the trip was short of what he needs, he clearly wants about 10f, so it was obviously intended as a prep run or cobweb blower. Second thing to note is watch the draw, missing the break, wide trip early, and the effort on board to actually get close….

Now I must stress that there could just be a chance that he is a rogue and that he was really well and fresh ahead of this run. There could also be a small chance that whatever was the issue previously has been sorted and he is ready to rock and roll.

His price is going to allow us some fun. He has opened up at 16/1 tonight and is a really good each way bet. The only negative might be that it may have been picked up by other race readers so he may get well backed. If he does, then he may not even try.

Before we go I must just give you the details of a horse to follow in the early part of 2017. CULLINGWORTH is the one, here are the notes…

I think he’s potentially quite nice horse to follw for 2017. Ran in quite a few conditions races early on before having a mid summer break. Most intersting run was certainly the last start of 2016 when running in a messy race at Chester 9/9/16 when a horse fell and traffic problems. The way he travelled through that race and the fact that he was hampered were both interesting considring how he finshed off. Although well beaten was doing excellent work late on. Definitely capable of achieving much more than 81 this year. The form of this race has worked out really well too.

Pomme – 2.50 Carlisle

Castanea – 5.20 Kempton. E/W.

Be lucky today.

MG

Proform

Hoping the windmill will blow away the Saturday tears!

Proform

Ahh. How annoying was yesterday. Testa Rossa got absolutely hammered late doors into 4/1 from 7’s. Unfortunately the dropping back to seven didn’t really help but in truth he was given a poor ride. Edmunds let him get squeezed out and then just sat behind the whole field. I was shouting at the screen 5 furlongs out for him to switch wide.

I don’t think enough of the jockeys watch enough of the racing. When the horses come under pressure at Newcastle on the all-weather, the majority of them tend to drift to the far side. Horses that try to weave through have a very poor record. Once he switched wide and got daylight he took off but it was too late in a really steadily run race.

I will for now consider it money borrowed. As he is still thriving and will clearly win again soon. Preferably over a mile.

Anyway on to the Sunday action and I will grace you with the first maximum bet for February. I have had the max on BIG WINDMILL (3.20 Taunton). He was one of my eye-catchers in the WeighedInRacing magazine this month. Here are my Proform Notes…..

He’s had the typical education, very much slowly slowly with an eye to chasing I believe. He made his chase debut in a novice handicap off a mark of 112 on January 25th and having been nibbled most of the day he jumped the first three fences really well before seeming to slip or catch heels of the horse in front and unshipped Adrian Heskin.

He looks a big natural chasing type and I really liked the way he jumped the first three fences. He should be followed with interest in the coming weeks..

It’s about time they started winning so fingers crossed the max lands! It should be an interesting few days as plenty of this month’s eye catchers are entered this week so things should really start to pick up!

BIG WINDMILL – 3.20 Taunton – 5pts Max bet @ 9/4 (bog).

Top result for the hammers yesterday. Seems the lads are playing with far more freedom away from home at the moment. Good result at a difficult place to go. Top half finish looks more likely each week whilst the relegation race is wide open!

So looking forward to the Superbowl tonight. Should be an absolute belter. Fingers crossed the windmill will give us plenty of ammo to have an interest!

Be lucky today!

All the best

MG

 

Proform

 

 

Fire Up The Testa Rossa!

Proform

I won’t dwell on yesterday. As I’d feared the mile was just no good for Gold Return and once she missed the break she was a million. She is certainly not one to give up on and will remain on the interesting list when conditions are more suitable.

I have a couple that I must throw into the mix today. First off I’ve had my first decent go on one since I started blogging again in the form of TESTA ROSSA (7.45 Newcastle). He has improved immeasurably over the last over the last 3 or 4 months and it is almost exclusively down to the test that the all-weather track provides. I am absolutely convinced that he would have won again on Jan 21st had he not been stopped in the run not once but twice. He gets to race off the same mark of 80 in here again tonight and I see no reason why he will not win again granted a clear passage. He is actually 2lbs better off as Lewis Edmunds can claim 5lbs rather than the 3 of Downing. The drop back to 7f doesn’t worry me, there is a chance given how he has raced that it may even suit better and there should be plenty of pace on.

Clearly Safe Voyage is a sharp improver and could be a huge danger but I had them much closer together in the market than they are and at 7/1 I think he represents a decent bet. If it is your way I couldn’t put you off backing him each way as I can’t see him out the first three, but he’s a decent bet for me at the prices.

The other one I have to give a positive mention too is FLY TRUE (2.30 Lingfield). Jeremy Gask’s filly should in my opinion have won last time and I’ll be backing her to gain some compensation today. She’s a hold up horse with an excellent turn of foot. Granted round here she will need some luck, but if the gaps come she will go very close. With Mossgo and Come On Dave in here they should go a relentless clip that will bring the closers in to play. It will be hair-raising late doors but I’m convinced she’s better than her current mark.

TESTA ROSSA – 7.45 Newcastle – 3pts win @ 7/1.

FLY TRUE – 2.30 Lingfield – 1 pt win 9/2.

Be lucky today with your punting….oh and COYI

Proform

Another blank day! Article writing time for @weighedinracing

Proform

Morning all, just a post to let you know we have no eye catchers running today. Having been doing racing commentaries for the last three days I will be spending today in my office doing all the videos since Saturday so we should have plenty more to add to the interesting list.

I will also be writing my first eye-catchers article for Weighed In Racing (@weighedinracing) today too. This will contain 3 or 4 of the months biggest eye catchers that have yet to run since and should be placed firmly in your trackers.

Just to touch on one or two of the horses that I’ve mentioned so far. Pulsating is definitely being messed about with so we’ll strike her off. Cold Fusion got pretty well backed at Southwell, well from 40’s into 25’s, but just ran terribly. I will keep an eye on him for now but can’t see him being a betting proposition in the near future on the back of that.

Good luck today!

All the best

MG

Proform

A couple of eye catchers for today and a word on Pomme

Proform

Morning all. I will start off by just touching on the run of POMME yesterday at Doncaster. After being off the track for over a year, she ran an absolute cracker to finish 4th. Indeed had she jumped the last couple of flights better she would have probably placed. The way she travelled into the race suggests that all of that ability is still there that I had hoped and she certainly becomes a project moving forward. I assume that they may take the option of a run in an equally competitive race next time so that they can get her a nice enough mark. Certainly one to follow with interest.

On to the action on Saturday and I have a couple to pass on that caught the eye last time. I will start with the obvious one in HEAD SPACE (4.15 Lingfield). He was a moral winner given the draw when last seen a week ago having got badly out of his ground and coming with a late rattle weaving between runners to get 2nd on the line. From stall 1 today, Kirby should be able to take a slightly more daring passage and if the splits come at the right time he could be hard to contain.

The 2nd runner that went on to the slightly interesting list last week is one to take a bit of a chance with tonight at Kempton. PULSATING runs in the 7.15 and is available to back as I write this on Friday night at a general 20/1. She caught the eye last week under Milly Naseb when getting slightly caught on heels and knocked about turning for home before picking up quite nicely in the straight in the end to be beaten only a length over what is an inadequate five furlongs. This improved effort came with the introduction of first time blinkers which seem to perk her up. They go with first time visor on Saturday which is no bad thing. There is plenty of pace in here with both White Royal and Ninety Years Young likely to go forward and with Kieran Schofield’s 7lb claim she has a lovely racing weight back at six furlongs which is a big plus. The down side is this is a much better race than she has been running in for a while and whilst that is a negative, we are getting 20/1. I think she should be played each way and if things go to plan and the splits come, we could have a nice voucher in our hands come 7.17!

So the bets away from the main action today are as follows:

Head Space 4.15 Lingfield – Win

Pulsating 7.15 Kempton – E/W.

Enjoy the star-studded card at Cheltenham today, I’m on TV duty all day so will soak it all up from the studio.

All the best

Mark

Proform

A couple to keep on side this evening……

Proform

Afternoon all. A couple of lovely results yesterday with Mischief Maisy getting very well backed from 20’s into 10’s and getting a very good ride to win. That may well be the limit of her ability but we bagged it on the good day. Mister Bob drifted all day right out to 10/1 then duly did the business too so good results all round. Refulgence is finally, off the list.

Just a couple to note that are running this evening.

7.30 Newbury – Loaded – 9/1 Generally – 1pt win

I think he’s a nice horse and potentially a bit better than his opening mark of 82 suggests. At Chester last time I think he hated the undulations and looked certain to want a bit further in time. A few of these have already played their hands in handicaps where as this lad looks cherry ripe for tonight.

9.10 Newbury – Siri & Severus – 25/1 & 16/1 2x 1pt singles.

A couple to play against the field in the concluding handicap on the card. You have to be forgiving for both last runs but I’m happy to do so. Siri messed about in the stalls at Carlisle, got restless and missed the break. They went no real pace and she was always on the back foot and not persevered with. She is better than that and can prove it tonight. I’m astonished she’s 25/1, if you watch the video back from Sandown the time before she was desperately unlucky not to win what was a better race than this.

Severus hated the heavy ground over a mile at Newmarket last time and drops back to seven on fast ground this evening. He travelled up strongly to a point that day and today should suit much more. They are both rated 72 but with the allowances Siri gets 8lbs off Severus so I slightly favour her. Play them both against the field of largely exposed beasts.

Good luck

Mg

Proform

One or two for today….

Proform

I know, I know… it’s been like forever. I’m over it, hopefully you are too.

A rare summers day off today and a couple of horses have popped up on the tracker that I feel I should probably pass on for you today from my recent video analysis.

MISTER BOB – 7.45 Kempton. 8/1 with Betway/Betfair.

He was a rather large eye catcher when we last saw him at Wolves on 31st May. A race where they went no pace at all which didn’t help this hold up beast. He’s handicapped to win and with that having blown away any cobwebs he looks sure to run a big race tonight if he is wanted. They should go a good gallop here which will help with Starcrossed likely to go forward and Music Man also a prominent racer helping to push things along, we should get a good gallop to run at. Ted is on board which is not great so we may be watching through our fingers again close home. If he’s ready and the gaps come he’s well worth backing.

Dalavand – 3.10 Yarmouth – 13/8 Generally

Has been on the radar to pick up a small handicap for a while. Drops into a very weak seller today and you’d be desperately disappointed if he didn’t win.

Mischief Maisy – 3.30 Lingfield – 20/1 General, massive on BF.

She’s just one to follow, maybe for 3/4 runs. She has more ability than her mark will suggest and a step to a mile and a half looks a good thing. She was given a very interesting ride at Brighton last time. Worry today is they may have too much pace for her around here but she is one for your trackers and small stakes. Especially in place markets etc. She’s likely to go in at a massive price at some point.

Refulgence – 3.40 Yarmouth – Any price you like?

She’s been in my tracker for ages, for one reason only. It’s looked to me for a long time like she wants middle distances but Marco Botti has kept her to a mile up until now. She nearly sneaked in last time (head in hands moment) at 25/1 but just failed to get there over the extended 8.5f at Wolves. First attempt at ten furlongs today, so she’s on the list, unless she gets beat!

Have a great day!

Mg

Proform