Big Saturday blog

Proform

Morning everyone. Another really pleasing day yesterday bagged us two nice winners at Lingfield. Disappointed with the run of SYNAESSTHESIA at Wolverhampton but she is a project to keep an eye on. The market was incredibly negative about her late doors and the horse that was heavily backed most of the day won easily. As expected they didn’t go much of a pace and I think they might have got the tactics wrong on her. Still a nice 12.75pts profit on the day cannot be grumbled at.

We will start with what I consider to be the bet of the day for me in the form of FESTIVE AFFAIR (1.50 Sandown). A frustrating type really for Jonjo O’Neill who has been given some time off after a disappointing return to action at Cheltenham in November (where he was very well backed). His mark of 132 really does look very workable on his beating of Dark Lover last year. I am assuming they were not keen to run him during the yards cold spell and he looks to me to be a type that could thrive in the spring and towards the festival. Very keen on his chances this afternoon and wouldn’t at all be surprised if he was very well backed.

FESTIVE AFFAIR 3 pts win @ 5/1.

2.05 Ffos LasBetway Welsh Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap)

A really competitive affair. The first two winners of this race (Medinas & Saphir Du Rheu) have both proved to be very smart animals but I’m not sure there is anything of that class lurking in here. I put a line through at least half this field with comfort though and I think there are two worth backing. First up, top weight SILSOL. Let’s forgive the latest run at Cheltenham behind Rock On Ruby and concentrate on his handicap exploits of which his form reads 2111. Up another 7lb for winning at Newbury off 144, he was going away at the end there and I don’t think the extra 7lb would have stopped him that day. Jack Sherwood gets on very well with him with two wins from three rides and I think he has been slightly underestimated in the market and therefore should be backed.

The other one that interests me is AWAYWITHTHEGREYS for Peter Bowen and Jamie Moore. I think he likes this type of flat track and he ran well in the race last year which was a stronger race than today. The blinkers go on and I think he might just be overpriced.

SILSOL – 1 pt win @ 10/1 generally

AWAYWITHTHEGREYS 1 pt win @ 16/1 generally

2.40 Ffos Las – Betway West Wales National

Really keen on the chances today of GLOBAL POWER. Oliver Sherwood’s gelding hasn’t had much racing over the last couple of seasons but he has given the impression on several occasions that a step up to extreme trips could bring about plenty of improvement. I think he is an out-and-out stayer and the conditions of today’s race will play into his hands. A really solid bet.

GLOBAL POWER – 2.5pts win @ 11/2.

WEST LEAKE (4.05 Lingfield) hasn’t won for two years but seems to be in the perfect race for me today. He’s a hold up horse who would like to be on the bridle as long as possible and with Bertie Blu Boy in the field they are certain to go a crazy gallop. With one or two of these keen to chase the pace he could well just have everything set up absolutely perfectly. I struggle to see him not being in the first three and if all goes perfectly thee race may just fall into his lap. Last win came off 58 so is on a nice mark and should at the very least go close.

WEST LEAKE 2pts each way @ 6/1.

Now strangely for me too there are also a few in today that I like at short prices. So what I am going to do as it is the last day of the month is put a couple of them in a one point treble.  I won’t go in to too much detail but they are as follows:

KASHTAREE 1.00 Weth

SAMPLE 1.10 Ling

BRISTOL DE MAI 1.15 Sandown

This treble pays 22/1 with Sportingbet and I’ve thrown 1pt at it.

So a really busy Saturday with 12.5 pts at Stake. Confident of a decent day.

Enjoy a cracking day and be lucky!

MG

Proform

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Cheltenham Festival Day 3 – Big Buck’s or Girl power?

Proform

I can’t really complain about the way day two panned out in the end as the day went really well. So pleased with Sire De Grugy. The 3/1 was an enormous price, I just hope that plenty of you managed to get on. The scenes in the winners enclosure were brilliant. So chuffed for the Moore team. I know some of the team closely and they really deserve a big race champion. What the jockeys did for Jamie was a touch of class. I’m sure Mattie Batch who has been associated with the yard since he was a kid was the ring leader. Hit the crossbar again with Smad Place, Katgary and Orgilgo Bay but shouldn’t grumble.

1.30 – JLT Novices´ Chase (Registered As The Golden Miller Novices´ Chase) Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)

The penultimate race at the festival that I have a decent standing ante-post position in the form of Paul Nicholls WONDERFUL CHARM. A smart hurdler that has really taken well to fences. His jumping is fluent and accurate and he seems to stay well so a strong gallop at this intermediate trip will really suit. I made my ante-post move after he tried to give 8lbs to Oscar Whiskey in a race that Barry Geraghty dictated from the front. Oscar Whiskey’s speed and the weight allowance gave him the edge that day but I fully expect Wonderful Charm to turn the tables today. Felix Younger is respected as danger, I do wonder if there may be one or two too quick for him on this ground. Taquin De Seuil may want slightly softer ground but is certainly respected as the setup of the race will suit and Vukovar is completely un-exposed.

I really like WONDERFUL CHARM and he is a strong selection.

2.05 – Pertemps Network Final (A Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)

I wrote an ante-post piece on this race for JPFestival.com. One of my selections is a non runner the other will go with every chance at that is JOSIES ORDERS for Jonjo O’Neill. A rapid improver over the last few months and has been given a break of 48 days since laughing at his rivals at Huntingdon. The son of Milan will need to improve again but with Maurice Linehan on board taking off 5lbs he gets a nice racing weight here and he must have a huge each way shout at 14/1.

There is no doubting the potential class in the race lies with Phillip Hobbs as he will saddle the Exeter first and second FINGAL BAY and IF IN DOUBT. They both have excellent claims. Fingal bay on his day is very classy indeed. He gave Simonsig a beating at Sandown back in 2011. A revised mark of 148 is by no means beyond him and I expect him to run a massive race. If In Doubt I really like. I backed him at Kempton when behind the rapid improver Saphire De Reu. Tom O Brien did not pick up his stick at Exeter and today is very much the day for him. McCoy will be getting the shaleylee out this time around for sure. My only question mark about him is the ground. If he goes on it, he goes very very close.

Being such a competitive race I must throw in a couple at big prices. I would love to see LIE FORRIT run well but this may be too much for him now. I like the chances at big prices of both UTOPIE DES BORDES and ON THE BRIDGE. UDB may seem like the Henderson second string with jockey bookings but I’m not so sure. Back from a break after a couple of runs on desperate ground, she is back to the mark where she ran a blinder behind Gevrey Chanbertin at Haydock bakc in November and she will love this better ground. OTB was a rapid improver last summer, will love the ground and wouldn’t have to improve too much more to take a major hand. There could be some big prices floating around on the exchanges about these two.

Selections:

Josies Orders e/w with savers on Fingal Bay/If In Doubt

Back both Utopie Des Bordes and On the Bridge at big prices on Betfair and in the place market.

2.40 – Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Chase)

A race that for me is fairly straight forward. DYNASTE for me brings by far the best piece of form to the table with his run in the Betfair Chase. We can forgive him his run in the King George as he reportedly pulled muscles that day. If he returns to his best, he will reverse the form from last years Jewson with Benefficient and win. I will be having a money back saver on AL FEROF as he is very classy on his day and he rarely runs a bad race here. If you are looking to back one at a big price then I do think RAJDHANI EXPRESS is likely to out-run his odds.

Strong bet on DYNASTE with a saver on Al Ferof.

3.20 – Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+)

Well the feature of day three is a mouth-watering clash between the people’s champion in Big Bucks and the new girl on the block in Annie Power. I’ve no doubt that AP will go off a very short price favourite. She is clearly very very good as her unbeaten record shows. The main question about her is if she will get the three miles in a championship race up the hill. To give you an idea how good she is as far as mares go, last March she beat Glens Melody (2nd to Quevega in mares race on Tuesday) twelve lengths without coming off the bridle over two and a half miles. I think she will probably get the trip. Big Buck’s is just all class. He undoubtedly needed the run in the Cleeve and will come on a bundle for that. If he retains all his ability this will be another great finish. Paul Nicholls is very bullish, as always.

I’m not as convinced as everyone else is that it is a two-horse race. I do respect At Fishers Cross as Rebecca Curtis’s horses have hit a real hot vein of form. His jumping and love for soft ground would be a concern for me. More of That is still very raw and is unbeaten. He could certainly be involved in the finish as could SALUBRIOUS who was travelling very well before a bad mistake at Ascot in the Long Walk.

Rally a race to savour. My heart will probably make me back BIG BUCKS. He is around 10/11 for a place on Betfair. That is an absolutely cracking bet in my eyes as I really can’t have him out the first three.

4.00 – Byrne Group Plate (A Handicap Chase) Grade 3 (CLASS 1)

A real tough race again this year and one that the class may shine through in the form of old rivals Colour Squadron and JOHNS SPIRIT. They have met twice already this year and the score is 1-1. Johns Spirit is the one I really like. To me he looks like he has potential to be a little bit better than a handicapper and the vibes from the yard over the last few weeks have been very encouraging. He travels strongly and jumps well in the main (made a mistake early last time that knocked him back). If he gets a good passage through and Richie is patient on him I expect him to go very close on this better ground. Colour Squadron is still a maiden over the larger obstacles but he has run some cracking races in defeat. He will surely be in the mix here again and has to be included.

If you are looking for something a bit more adventurous price wise then Third Intention’s Ascot third got a huge boost yesterday and he drops into handicap company off a nice mark.  BLESS THE WINGS and NADIYA DE LE VEGA both have first time headgear for in form trainers at big prices.

Johns Spirit 2pts win @ 10/1, Colour Squadron 1 pt win @ 9/1.

Potential each way savers on Third Intention 16/1, Bless The Wings 25/1, Nadiya De La Vega 25/1

4.40 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)

A nightmare to finish and probably a small stakes race unless we are miles in front. One horse though that jumps off the page at me is OUR FATHER for the David Pipe team. Now he comes with dangers attached as he is a bit of a thinker and is fragile. He is just as likely to finish last as he is first. He is however very dangerously handicapped (though of as a Gold Cup horse at one point) and also has the first time blinkers which may have been needed for some time. He was very well backed ahead of the Hennessy and went off the 11/2 fav on a mark of 147. That would suggest that he could be thrown in here IF and it’s a big IF he’s on a going day. That is factored into the price though and he is as big as 22/1 with Victor Chandler. I would not at all be surprised if he starts an awful lot shorter than that.

There is very likely to be an upset in this, the one towards the head o fthe market I like is SPRING HEELED who should relish being back on better ground and has an excellent pilot.

OUR FATHER STRONG BET AT 22/1, saver on Spring Heeled.

All the best today, back plenty of winners.

MG

@markagrantham

Big Saturday Racing Blog

Proform

It doesn’t matter what your favourite racing blend is on days like today. We have top flat and jumps action as well as the introduction to the new all-weather racing championships at Wolverhampton this evening. If you’re in the area, get yourself along to Dunstall Park. It’s just £10 entry tonight and there is some quality all-weather action http://www.wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk/horse-racing/fixturedetails/281

Whilst there is some cracking action across the cards today, as per usual my Proform racing horse watcher is alight with runners on the slightly lower graded stuff and I think we may well have found a few decent opportunities. Having said that I do like the look of Edgardo Sol in the Old Roan Chase (3.05 Aintree). He is 2-2 at the track and has far fewer miles on the clock than his rivals this afternoon and is surely overpriced at a general 13/2. I also think that Lamb Or Cod has an excellent chance in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow (4.10). He won this race last year off 6lbs lower before struggling on a couple of occasions when things just didn’t fall right (struck into on second occasion). Off since January he could be a bit better than a 130 animal and the 9/1 available is tasty (of the Nandos variety).

On to the main selections of the day. We’ll go in time order rather than strength of fancy.

4.25 Doncaster crownhotel-bawtry.com Nursery Handicap (CLASS 3)

I will be playing two against the field in on paper what looks an open race. The first is MALACHIM MIST who brings a strong piece of form into this race having been a good third last time at Nottingham. The first two in that race in my opinion are clearly group horses in the making and MM did well to finish nicely clear of the rest in third. Dropped another couple of pounds and given the services of Richard Hughes today he is of major interest at 8/1 (StanJames). I will also be having a saver on ARROWZONE. A horse that has been badly campaigned this year. On the back of his three maiden efforts he was given an opening mark of 55. A mark that was a long way under his ability. Had he been held back for nurseries he would have run up a sequence. As it turns out he was kept to maiden company next time and his mark shot up. He is not handicapped out of this though and I like the race he went close in last time at Catterick. He is a battler and is not an 11/1 chance in my book.

5.10 Newbury – Free Bets freebets.co.uk Handicap (For Lady Amateur Riders) (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-75)

An end of season googly for you in the form of SIR BOSS. He caught the eye at Wolverhampton last time when traveling strongly and not getting the best of runs. He gets in here off top weight and is on a winning mark. Whilst it is a lady riders race stakes should be kept to a minimum but the 22/1 (30’s on Betfair) is much too big and I expect you will get a good run for your money.

5.30 Doncaster – Universal Recycling Apprentice Handicap (CLASS 4) (3yo 0-85)

Very very keen on the chances of GLANELY today. He was given a very interesting ride at Kempton last time in a race that didn’t really suit, staying on late in the day when the race had gone. Everything seems in his favour today, the trip, the track and conditions are all likely to play to his strengths and with Lewis Walsh claiming 5lbs he is very interesting indeed. The son of Exceed and Excel has only had 6 starts and I expect him to be much better than a 78 animal in time. Absolute knocking bet at 9/2.

7.15 Wolverhampton – Coral Mobile “Just Three Clicks To Bet” Handicap (CLASS 6) (3yo 0-65)

Another one from out the back of the hand tonight that just strikes me as being overpriced. The race will be made by the favourite (Mystery Drama) who bolted up last time at Southwell but I like the chances of OUR GOLDEN GIRL who has improved for the application of blinkers the last twice. She races a little bit lazy but she does stick to her task nicely and with the way the track has been running the last few nights I just get the feeling that it will suit her this evening. Robert Tart keeps the ride and she is bred to be better than a 55 beast (Dutch Art/ Pivotal Mare). 9/1 is a fair price and I think she is very likely to out run those odds.

8.15 Wolverhampton – 32Red.com Nursery Handicap (CLASS 2) (2yo)

I doubt that today is the day for MONEY TEAM but I couldn’t let this go without at least a mention. The sn of Kodiac was claimed out of Bill Turners after dotting up earlier in the summer. He was given an alarming ride at Pontefract last time which got the button pressing twitchy. Down another pound I am sure that he is being set up for a punt but there hasn’t been a penny about today. I will watch with major interest today and if there is any blue on Oddschecker I will be pleased.

8.45 Wolverhampton – 32Red On The App Store Fillies´ Handicap (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-75)

One of the most interesting horses on the whole day goes in the very last contest of the day in the form of IT’S MY TIME. Richard Fahey’s runner caught the eye last time on the back of a break in behind Tatting who was in the form of his life at the time. He is only 4lbs higher than winning at Chester earlier on in the season and the Fahey team have hit a rich vein of form in the last week or so. I think he is very interesting indeed in the lucky last and is ready available in double figures. Cracking each way value.

I hope we have managed to find you one or two bets to get your teeth into today. Enjoy what is going to be a great day!

All the best

MG

Proform

 

Grand National Saturday!

pro5

Morning everyone. It’s amazing how quickly this day seems to come around each year. We will do well to top last year with Neptune Collonges doing the business for us in grand style at 40/1!! Anyone remembers the hangovers from this Saturday 12 months ago?

4.15 Aintree – John Smith´s Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (7yo+)

Another top quality maximum field assembled for the feature jumps race of the year. Let’s hope for a clean start this time around. I’ve narrowed the field down to five and will play them all.

JOIN TOGETHER – For a long time he has looked like a marathon trip will suit him down to the ground. You can safely put a line through his last run and the most eye-catching piece of form is he fast finishing 2nd in the Beecher Chase in December. He got a little out-paced as they upped the pace that day before staying on strongly. There will be no quickening today and all his main attributes will come to the fore especially when they turn for home. If he can steer a clear passage and jump safely he will be a massive player late in the day and is much too big a price.25/1.

ON HIS OWN – Travelling like a travelly thing when coming down at Beecher’s on the second circuit last year. He has been lightly raced since and has been prepared for this with absolute perfection. Ruby rides who knows the course so well and if he jumps round has to be a big player. 10/1.

IMPERIAL COMMANDER – All the stats are against him. He’s missed so much of the last 18 months through injuries that it seems very unlikely that you put the top weight up in the national. On the plus side he jumps like a stag, loves going right-handed, will relish the ground and is so well handicapped on his old form that he actually could make a mockery of this mark. Time and time again the class horses come to the top in this race and even if top weight stops him winning, he will go very very close if he’s fit and well. 16/1.

ROBERTO GOLDBACK – Bought completely with this is mind at the start of the season and duly bolted up on his first start for Nicky Henderson at Ascot. He won so well that day that he looked like a really well handicapped horse. He has run in bottomless ground since then and hasn’t looked the same. There is every chance that he has been completely laid out for this and is actually only 4lbs higher than when winning at Ascot. 25/1.

SEABASS – The last one to creep onto the short list! Ran a blinder in this last year when up with the pace throughout and given a lovely ride by Katie Walsh. He’s up 5lbs this year which makes life tougher but he looks to have been given a perfect prep and I really couldn’t leave him out.

Of the others I thought that Balthazar’s King was likely to go well and it will be fascinating to see how Chicago Grey goes under the patient Carberry. If you were to ask me to name one at a massive price that will give you a run for your money you could do a lot worse than SWING BILL at 100/1 (170’s on BF). He will relish this in amongst horses and will travel way for a long way, he could realistically be in the shake up and I might play him in a few of the special markets.

All in all it should be a classic. Let’s hope they all come back safe and sound and we are cheering home the winner!

Away from the main event I will also be having a decent go on CANTLOW (3.25). Most of you will know how long he has been on my radar and I was hoping to have a thick bet on him at Cheltenham but he bled down at the start and didn’t take part. He has been absolutely crying out for three miles plus and finally gets ot here today. He’s on a really good mark and this type of race should really suit him. This is also a race that JP likes to target and I think he has a massive chance and I’ll be having a decent bet. 3 pts win @ 7/1 generally.

I am a little bit baffled by the entry for VAN DER NEER in the listed race at Lingfield. He is in my top three horses to follow on the flat this year and looks a real exciting prospect. His run in the Racing Post Trophy was so eye-catching on ground that he didn’t seem to appreciate. On a good surface this summer he could prove to be very smart indeed and maybe this is just a prep to put him bang on for the guineas? He’s 1/2 and no sort of bet today but I’ll be watching with real interest as I think he is very high-class.

I have to give one more chance to KINDIA (5.20 Lingfield) who has caught the eye a couple of times since coming over from france. This drop back to seven might suit her a little better today and with the visor swapped for cheek pieces she is starting to look nicely handicapped. She is 25/1 on Betfair but she is likely to pop up at some point. Last chance for me today. 1 pt win @ 25/1 on Betfair.

I will be throwing a few darts at KEEP IT DARK (5.35 Newcastle) too. Mussleburgh clearly didn’t suit last time and has a decent pull in the weights with the winner today too. Completely unexposed and should go well. 1.5 pts win @ 7/1.

The booking of Kieren Fallon on ALBAQAA (9.20 Wolverhampton) looks interesting as he is seriously well handicapped and should be included in your multiples today.

Good luck with all your bets. It is a cracker jack days racing. Fingers crossed for the National winner once again!

All the best,

MG

pro5

Happy Easter! Saturday 30th March Racing!

pro5

A very good morning/afternoon/evening depending on what time you are casting your eyes on today’s ramblings. I hope you are all well and have lots of festivities planned for the weekend. Mine unfortunately will not include any chocolate (well I’ll try) and although I am due to be attending a big night out on Saturday I doubt it will include any alcohol either. Training is still going well, I’ve just had to change things up a little in the last week or so as my weight had plateaued somewhat. Still being incredibly good all round bout I’d only lost 2lbs in the last 3 weeks so a change is required.

A must give a quick mention to Miako who ran really flat on Wednesday. Luke Morris rode him as midge was banned. He is gonna have a month off now and we will look at possible future plans then. There are not many opportunities at Southwell now for him really until the winter so we may give him a go on turf to see how he does.

As we have a day of no racing today I thought I would really get stuck into the card at Doncaster and see if I can find any gems. I’ve just done the usual browsing through the Proform stats for the last two weeks and there are one or two eye catchers.

Trainers win and place strike rates over the last 14 days….

John Gosden 100%

Hans Adielsson 80%

Marco Botti 70%

Richard Fahey 64.71%

Richard Hannon 62.50%

Steve Gollings, Alan Swinbank, Ed Vaughan all 60%

Doncaster 1.20 6f Class 2 William Hill-No 1 Downloaded Betting App Handicap (4yo plus)

A devilishly difficult start to the day at Doncaster. The last 8 running’s of this contest have seen winning SP’s of 33/1, 40/1, 16/1, 16/1 and 66/1, so whatever you find don’t let a price put you off. Fitness will have to be taken on trust as only Thunderball has run within the last 50 days. King of Jazz for Michael Bell is likely to head the betting as he is starting to look attractively handicapped but he hasn’t won since his maiden which is off-putting. Darren Egan will take off a handy 3lbs mind. By far the most interesting one from a handicapping point fo view is David Barron’s COLONEL MAK. He’s on a good mark on some of his old form and with trip and ground ideal the 5lb claim of Luke Mcniff makes him of real interest if he could return to something like his best. You cannot ignore the claims of Richard Fahey’s runners in these early season contests and both FARLOW and ALEJANDRO make some appeal. The former is likely to be towards the head of the betting and the lightly raced five-year old is only a pound higher than his last win. Most of his best form however does come on a firmer surface which would be a slight concern, but if he handles it, he should go close. Jamaican Bolt was progressive last year and bumped into a bang in from Jack Dexter when second on his last start here in October. The ground will hold no fears at all. All his best form is over five so this might stretch him a little but the yards horses are generally running well. There isn’t an awful lot of early speed in here which might play to the strengths of the consistent mare Spinatrix with Connor Beasley taking off 7lbs.

I’ll be backing Colonel Mak with savers on Farlow, Alejandro and Spinatrix on Betfair at inflated prices.

Doncaster 1.55 William Hill Spring Mile (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+)

A wide open Spring Mile with several potential improvers not least Educate and Nameitwhatyoulike. Dubai Hills has been winning off higher marks around Southwell and comes here in rude health. He does tend to save his best for the fibresand however. This is one fo the races that I like to look for some value and maybe play a few against the field. The first one that jumps off the page at me is PATRIOTIC. Chris Dwyers gelding will be largely ignored in the betting but there is reason to believe that he is a player. Firstly he is fit from the all-weather which includes a win two starts back off a mark of 77. His turf mark is lower than his all-weather mark and he gets in here off 74. The very talented Robert tart will take off a very valuable 5lbs too. His last visit to Doncaster resulted in a win over this course and distance and he has run well on soft ground in the past. The race hasn’t been priced up yet but he’s trading around 32’s on Betfair and I had him in at about 14/1 so that makes him of massive each way interest. I think Extraterrestrial is over priced, as is the race fit Docofthebay. From the front of the market GAUL WOOD makes most appeal. Lightly raced, he is ultra consistent and goes well fresh.

1.5 pts each way Patriotic 33/1, 1 pt win Gaul Wood. 0.5 pts win on Extraterrestrial and Docofthebay.

Doncaster 2.30 William Hill – New iPad App Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)

An interesting renewal with one or two of last years most progressive sprinters. Humidor tends to do most of his winning over 5f and may want a better surface. Captain Ramius and Our Jonathon renew their rivalry and are sure to go well but clear preference is for Jack Dexter who improved leaps and bounds last year and looks set to continue that progress with conditions to suit.

Jack Dexter 1 pt win.

3.05 Doncaster William Hill Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+)

A fascinating renewal of the first big handicap of the season seven days later than expected. Captain Bertie has been very well backed to continue last years progression and the yard are going very well. I think he’s short enough but he does have a very high strike rate when the ground description includes soft or heavy. Strictly Silver comes here on the back of a deserved victory at Wolverhampton but isn’t sure to go on the ground. By far the most interesting one towards the head of the market for me is LAHAAG. Trip and ground are ideal and the yards horses are running very well indeed (100% win and place strike rate last 14 days). He was beaten by Chapter Seven when last seen at York but he was keen that day and is likely to be bigger and stronger this time around. I like him a lot and think he’ll take some beating. Of the others last years winner BRAE HILL will have very chance again off the same mark with conditions to suit. Chosen Character improved leaps and bounds last year and it will be interesting to see how he fares in this much tougher grade. The two at big prices that look over-priced are DUBAI DYNAMO and BANCNUANAHEIRANN. 65’s and 40’s on Betfair are prices that should be taken. DD always needs a couple of runs to put him right and is feasibly handicapped. Mick Aplleby’s runner was acquired from Jim Bolger last summer and ran some cracking races in defeat in big handicaps. The yard is going great runs at the moment and if he is cherry ripe Bancnuanaheirann could really out run his price.

Lahaag 3 pts win @ 8/1, Dubai Dynao and Bancnuanaheirann 1 pt each way @ 65’s and 40/1.

4.15 Doncaster Harriet Powell Handicap (Div I) (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85)

Nice and straight forward here as I am really keen on the chances of EASTERN DESTINY who ran flat on her last start at the end of last season but has progressed nicely before that. If she’s cherry ripe I think she will go very close!

Eastern Destiny 1pt win.

Away from Doncaster I will be backing PEPITE ROSE over at Haydock (3.15) She still looks on a really attractive mark to me and would surely have won at Newbury last time when falling three out. A recovery mission today.

It is of course DUBAI WORLD CUP night aswell on Saturday and if you are a big fan of your international racing I recorded Timeform Radio’s Dubai World Cup International Racing Podcast alongside Stephen Molyneux which you can listen too via http://www.timeform.com/radio it can also be downloaded from the site and of course through itunes. Stephen had one or two strong fancies on the card and is well worth a listen.

The domestic football action is back and the hammers entertain West Brom at Upton Park tomorrow. Three points is a must to re-establish our mid table position.

Enjoy what is a craking weekend of sporting action.

Be lucky and back plenty of winners.

MG

Monday 25th March

pro5

Morning campers. Well today feels a bit weird. I was hoping to be celebrating Tiger Woods winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational this morning but a tropical Florida storm meant that he only completed two holes of his final round. Play will continue at around 2.30pm our time. He did manage to extend his lead to three shots with an excellent birdie at the second hole mind. Rickie Fowler looks the only conceivable danger, although having said that the course is likely to play a lot slower today.

Just the one selection yesterday and he was a very easy winner indeed. He got absolutely hammered in the market and was backed from 3/1 into 11/8 before winning very easily. I hope many of you put him in your bets!

Only the one meeting today but I’ve been sifting through Proform all morning and come up with some interesting insights.

The Proform stats for the last 14 days have thrown up two trainers with high win and place strike rates:

Richard Hannon 66.67% (Mysterial 4.10) and Gay Kellaway 60% (Conducting 5.10)

PRINCE OF BURMA has been on my horses to follow list for a while. If he doesn’t win the first today, he will firmly be dropped off it!

By far the most interesting horse on the card for me today is KINDIA (5.10) trained by Michael Attwater. She started her career in France before racing here for the first time in November and she has shown steady pieces of form since whilst not really having the pace to win over a mile. Today she steps up in trip for the first time and she looks sure to improve for it. Her 2nd at Kempton on 28th January has worked out well and today she drops into 0-70 company for the first time. This does look a good race for the grade but the 16/1 about her this morning is far to tempting to leave alone and is a very good each way price. The favourite MUBTADI is very solid however and the form of his last win has worked out incredibly well and he may be up to progressing again.

You will know I have been following POLARITY (4.40) for a while. She is a massive price again today (50’s on betfair) but I have that nagging feeling that she will pop up soon at a massive price off a tumbling mark. Thomas Brown takes off another 5lbs today which will help further and whilst she is likely to finish last, she is certainly going to pop up at some point so I will back her small and throw some darts at the place market too.

By process of elimination with regards handicap marks and trip, ELUSIVE HAWK (3.10) should be very difficult to beat under a penalty. He won incredibly easily at Kempton the other night and is expected to do so again today. The bottom weight Sannibel may be the danger.

So a couple of big priced arrows to fire on a quiet day. Miako is entered on Wednesday and it looks a good race. I’m off to get the kettle on to watch the Tiger bring home the bacon!

Good luck today, be lucky

MG

Friday 22nd March

pro5

Morning, well afternoon actually. A long four days away and work last night meant the once a week customary sleep in this morning! Woke to great news that all of today’s meetings have beaten the weather, fingers crossed the weather relents for tomorrow.

Another great days for the stats yesterday if you follow them on Proform, with Camachoice and Divine Rule both winning at Kempton. I was disapoointed with the way the race panned out for Clapped but after missing the break he was always up against it. William Van Gogh won really easily and was always going to win. A large bet was had by all and a lovely profit for the day! Ta for the thanks.

A devilishly difficult day today all round with ground likely to be very testing. Here are the top four trainers with win & place strike rates over the last 14 days….

Kevin Ryan 61.54%

Richard Hannon 61.54%

Andrew Balding 54.55%

Laura Mongan 50%

That leads me nicely onto the most interesting horse at Newbury for me today in TUSCAN GOLD (5.30). He looks on a winnable mark as he moves into handicaps over obstacles for the first time. Improving with each run so far this year. The yard is going particularly well and this may not actually be as competitive as it looks on paper. For you each way thieves he is a very backable 5/1.

Also at Newbury I think that a seven pound rise will not stop KAYLIF ARAMIS (4.25). He cruised through the race and looks all about stamina. I would be surprised and disappointed if he wasn’t good enough to follow-up this afternoon and he is just about the best bet of the day.

I will be backing ALLNECESSARYFORCE (2.00 Donc). Richard Fahey’s record in early season (March-April) handicaps reads really well on Proform and judged on his 4th in a listed race at the back-end of last season he could be very well handicapped off a mark of just 78.

I won’t be betting in the 2.30 but will of course be cheering on ART SCHOLAR for obvious reasons. Hope Mick’s Mops Angel goes well in the Brocklesby too.

My best bet of the day though comes in the form of HEAVENS GUEST (3.35 Doncaster). He improved with each run last year and finished with a comfortable success in a Catterick maiden. An initial mark of 77 seems fair enough and he may well just improve bundles for this step back up in trip on soft ground with another winter behind him. Any market support would be a big bonus but the 5/1 about him this morning will do lovely.

On other news when Tiger Woods drifted to 7/2 I couldn’t resist. He largely played very well yesterday and provided that Rose doesn’t have another freaky few days then he is bang there on -3. Looks like West Ham will get the Olympic Stdium…bugger. David Gold has been tweeting all the positives this morning. The main one of course being the football clubs worth in a 60,000 seater stadium David…….oh did you miss that one?

Good luck today. Fingers crossed for the weather!

Be lucky!

MG

Cheltenham Festival Day 3

pro5

Well if you’re in front after the first two days then you’re doing well. The over ten lengths on Sprinter Sacre saved the day for me yesterday after I had plenty more seconditis. We are effectively only at half time and we have reached a really pivotal day as I fancy a few strongly this afternoon. Must just touch on The New One who was mightily impressive in winning yesterday. That puts to bed any worry about NTD horses that are running.

1.30 Cheltenham – Jewson Novices Chase

A real interesting opener and the opportunity for the David Pipe trained DYNASTE to enhance his already tall reputation. He has done nothing wrong to date with his last run being a 9l beating of Hadrian’s Approach in the Feltham at Christmas. On a line of that form you would think that Dynaste would have gone very close to winning the RSA yesterday. This is probably a slightly easier task today. The one worry about him would be that all of his form is generally before Christmas. He was beaten out of sight in the World Hurdle last year, but he looks a more mature horse this time round and if he runs to his ability today I think he will win. The main danger is likely to be CAPTAIN CONAN who also comes into this race unbeaten over fences. He had to really scrap to beat Third Intention at Sandown last time which was far from impressive but conditions here are likely to be more to his liking and although I think he will certainly play a part, I have always had a nagging doubt about him at the highest level.

AUPCHARLIE comes in next and he has some interesting form lines that have already produced the goods this week. It was however very disappointing that he was beaten at Naas last time and the fact that One Cool Shabra wasn’t at all far behind him is off-putting. I think a likely big danger could be TEXAS JACK who has been a model of consistency this season. He beat Lord Windermere at Leopardstown before finishing a nose behind Boston Bob last time which at double figure odds makes him a player and a solid each way proposition.

I’ve backed DYNASTE but I have also had a saver on TEXAS JACK.

2.05 Cheltenham – The Pertemps Final

This is a race I really like mainly down to the fact I’ve had some massive winners in it in the past. Today’s favourite comes here very well backed after two very interesting runs this season. SAM WINNER was 5th at Sandown on the back of a year off and was fairly tenderly handled by Ruby and stayed on quite nicely late on. He then went on to win a jumpers bumper at Kempton and comfortably beat Peddlers Cross in the process. Now it is never wise to try to weigh up the marks of horses in those contests but you have to think that he is starting to look a seriously well handicapped horse off 140. He comes here with every chance and the step up in trip has promised to suit for some time but he is quite short now.

SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR is progressive and has been winning by the smallest of margins. He is up another 9lb in a much better race but more improvement is possible under tha champ. CLOSE HOUSE comes here in rude health on the back of an excellent 2nd behind the well handicapped Double Ross he went on to comfortably dispose of Rangitoto at Wincanton in a race where the front two pulled miles clear. He’s up another 7lb but must be considered. TOPOFTHERANGE improved markedly to win really easily at Sandown last time and is only 5lb higher today. He is another for the short list and BET365 are really sticking their necks out this morning and going 16/1 about him which is too big! HOLLYWELL is up another 5lbs for another solid 2nd last time. He’s now gone up 21lbs in the weights without winning which is incredibly harsh and he is likely to give you another cracking run for your money at a big price.

I have to give one more chance today to CAPTAIN SUNSHINE. Most of you know the bad luck stories we’ve had with this fella and I must admit I would be a lot more comfortable if we had a different jockey. I’m not going to slag off Dominic Elsworth, he is simply just not my cup of tea and this game is all about opinions. He is definitely capable of winning off this mark but sometimes has his own ideas about things. If he jumps off this race could really suit him and I think he’ll go well.

I’ve backed Sam Winner ante-post so I will play up on Captain Sunshine and Close House for a profit.

2.40 Cheltenham – The Ryanair Chase

Really looking forward to this today. Probably the best renewal we have had in my opinion. Several of these would be near the top of the Gold Cup market and would be each way players there. We all know by now how much I love CUE CARD even though he has never really won me any reddies. I’m sure he will run another cracker here today but I do just worry that something may out stay him up the hill in what could be a cracking finish. The rock solid one is FIRST LIETENANT for Mouse Morris. His form in the Hennessy and Lexus is by far the best on offer this season and he would surely have gone to the Gold Cup with a massive chance. If he runs to form here today I think he will be very hard to beat indeed. The market reflects that now as he is a very well backed 9/4 favorite. Last years winner RIVERSIDE THEATRE comes here on the back of only one run this season in the King George. He will need to be cherry ripe to follow-up but you certainly wouldn’t rule him out. Martin Keighley’s horses are running very well and I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Champion Court run a big race and on ground he loves ALBERTAS RUN could be very hard to pass.

All in all this is going to be a cracker. My heart wants CUE CARD to win and I will have a sentimental bet on him but on all form I do think that FIRST LIETENANT will be very very hard to beat and should be backed.

3.20 Cheltenham – Ladbrokes World Hurdle

No Big Bucks this year so this makes the World Hurdle a very attractive betting race. Quite clearly the best horse in the race is Oscar Whiskey and by some way in my opinion. the problem for him comes in the form of the trip and if this track actually suits him. If this race was over 2.5 miles he would be odds on. As it is that extra half a mile makes things very different indeed. The better ground will certainly help him in that respect but I’m still not convinced he will see it out in what is likely to be a fastly run race.

REVE DE SIVOLA has blossomed since returning to hurdles and comes here on the back of two solid victories, including beating Oscar Whiskey here last time. He is without doubt a mud lover though so today’s quicker conditions may not be ideal for him. He should run his usual solid race and be in the mix. Similar sentiments go to BOG WARRIOR who has had an excellent season back over hurdles in Ireland. He has never struck me as a grade one winner though and I would worry about him in here. SOLWHIT has been well backed but would need to improve to turn the tables on Bog Warrior from two starts back. The real interesting ones are SMAD PLACE and WONDERFUL CHARM. Smad Place is very good on his day but has largely had a disappointing season. Both his poor efforts this year have been on bad ground however and he is definitely a horse that appreciates a firmer surface. If he reproduced his form from this race last year he will be bang in the mix. Wonderful Charm is completely unexposed having only had one start in this country when bolting up in the Persian War at Chepstow. He would still need to find something on paper to get involved but there is no knowing how good he could be and is a fascinating runner. Get Me Out Of Here goes well here and if he sees out the three miles has to be a player too.

A cracking race. I have backed Smad Place and Wonderful Charm. If RDS continues to drift I may have a bit on him too.

4.00 Cheltenham – Byrne Group Plate

At last time to let the shoulders go with my best bet of the week. I have been waiting for CANTLOW to go over three miles for some time and he has been absolutely teed up for a big handicap. All three starts over fences have come over much shorter and as a result he gets in here off 143. Paul Webber’s charge was a very good third in the Pertempts final last year so brings festival form to the table. He is a bigger, stronger horse this year and his chase rating completely underestimates his ability. I’m sure he is going to be an out-and-out stayer and this has been the plan for some time. The presence of HUNT BALL means he only has to carry 10-12 which is probably why this race was chosen as his option. I think he will run a massive race and I’ve had 5 pts on each way.

I do massively respect HUNT BALL who travelled very well for a long way in ground he would have hated last time. He is a massive player back on decent ground and will surely trade quite short in running so is an obvious back to lay proposition. I will have to save on him and will look to green up in running. It is just pure guess-work when trying to work out how good BALLYNAGOUR could be. He has a 20lb penalty to deal with on the back of his facile victory at Warwick. That may underestimate his ability but it is pure guess-work and he is a massive player for sure.

VINO GRIEGO has gone up 17lb for his two easy wins and comes here in rude health. Although his is likely to run his race again he may find this a little tougher. Poquelin always runs his race on this course and is a big price.

This is a race that revolves around the front of the market. I am a massive Cantlow fan and he is just about my strongest opinion of the week. I will be looking to play on Hunt Ball and Ballynagour in various ways to ensure a profit. COME ON CANTLOW!!!!

4.40 Cheltenham – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

Wide open.  A race that is fiendishly difficult to win. No surprise that I like the look of ALFIE SHERRIN. He did me a massive turn in the JLT last year and he has been running on ground that wouldn’t have suited so far this year. This will be much more his cup of tea and he can take this on route to winning the Grand National! (We can dream being on at ridiculous prices). Two big dangers though in this race could be the improving ROMANESCO under the excellent Nina Carberry and NO SECRETS off bottom weight for David Pipe and Katie Walsh who is a real eye-catching booking!

I’ll be cheering on Alfie Sherrin with side bets on Romanesco and No Secrets.

My thoughts about the Cross Country if it goes ahead are exactly the same as Tuesday and I will be cheering on Alex Hammond in the charity race aboard Mica Mika!

Hopefully the day today where we fly into a big profit! Be lucky, back plenty of winners and come on CANTLOW!!

MG

Proform

Cheltenham Festival Day 2

Proform

What a thrilling start to the week yesterday with Hurricane Fly taking the feature and regaining the Champion Hurdle crown to ecstatic scenes in the stands as the well backed favorite flew up the Cheltenham hill.It wasn’t all plain sailing as Ruby looked far from happy as they reached the top of the hill after a good pace had been set by Rock On Ruby. I was surprised to see on reflection that the Champion was 4 seconds slower than the Supreme Novice Hurdle won by Champagne Fever earlier on the card. Similar scenes also followed 35 minutes later when Quevega overcame tripping and nearly losing Ruby Walsh at the top of the hill to power through the field and win her 5th mares hurdle on the bounce. She is remarkable but I can’t help but think about what if…………World Hurdle?

Simonsig was a fairly comfortable winner of the Arkle in a much less impressive fashion than was anticipated. It is the least fluent I’ve seen him jump but I just think this was down to how quick they went. He looks a surefire Gold Cup horse of the future for me.

We move onto day two and a day that looks like a winnable card.

JOHN OAKSEY NATIONAL HUNT CHASE – 1.30 Cheltenham

Judging by the state of the ground today this is really going to take some getting and could be a real slog. Don’t be surprised if there aren’t many finishers. I have to confess to think that the two horses at the front of the market are absolutely bomb proof and are the likely winners. Both BACK IN FOCUS and BUDDY BOLERO come here with solid credentials. Both strong travelers that jump and stay well they come here with all the right attributes  and I’m sure one or the other will win.

It’s not highly original as they are best priced 3/1 and 9/2 but I will be splitting stakes on them in a hope to get a flyer on day two.

NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES´ HURDLE – 2.05 Cheltenham

A fascinating renewal for the staying novices and a potential high-class one too. Must start with a horse I am very fond of in the form of PONT ALEXANDRE for the Mullins/Walsh combination that had three winners on day one. He comes here with a tall reputation, but that is a reputation that has been backed up thus far. He has been beating horses rated in the high 130’s+ with consummate ease and he is surely going to be very difficult to beat here with conditions and the track likely to suit. The way Ruby talks about him reminds me of the way he used to talk about Kauto in the early days. He could be very good indeed and I think he is a worthy and solid favorite.

Although I think Pont Alexandre will win I have to say that I am also very interested in RULE THE WORLD who has looked every bit a high-class hurdler himself to date. If your after a solid each way bet in the race then he is definitely it at about 7/1 as I write this on Tuesday evening. His form was given a real boost yesterday when Champagne Fever won the Supreme as he gave him a pasting last time out. On that evidence he should be second favorite and therefore must represent plenty of each way value at 7/1. The shrewdies will be out in force to mop this price up overnight I’m sure.

TAQUIN DE SEUIL comes here with every chance after a bloodless win in the Challow last time. His form was also given a boost when My Tent Or Yours ran so well in the Supreme yesterday. On that line of form though you would say on balance that Rule The World may have his measure. THE NEW ONE will have plenty of supporters again tomorrow but he was put in his place by At Fishers Cross last time and the health of the yard would have to be a major worry.

I think that Pont Alexandre will be very hard to beat and I will be having 4 points on him but also must back Rule The World  each way as a saver tonight at 7/1 as I’m convinced he should be second fav.

RSA CHASE – 2.40 Cheltenham

Just about my best bet of the day today will come in the form of Paul Nicholls UNIONISTE in the RSA. He was a very impressive winner of a grade 3 handicap before Christmas off a mark of 143. He followed that up by beating Hadrian’s Approach at Newbury and is better off with that rival at the weights today being the only five-year old in the race. Having only had four starts over fences in this country there is untold potential there and I think he will be very hard to beat.

Boston Bob is a viable alternative for the Irish Challenge but i think the fact Ruby opts for Unioniste is significant. Boston Bob has looked like a dour stayer in the making and so conditions will be up his street. I just worry that there maybe one or two that have too much speed for him at the business end. He looks nailed on to be a Grand National horse to me.

Clear preference is for UNIONISTE and I will be having 5 pts win @ around 7/2.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE – 3.20 Cheltenham

Not too much to report here other than to sit back with a cup of tea and watch one of the most exciting jumpers you will ever see be crowned champion. I was lucky enough to be there the day MASTER MINDED thrashed his field in 2008 and I think you might see something similar today. If there are any “how far” markets I will be very interested in the overs as I think today might be the day we see the hand brake taken off. On a side note I am interested to see how Mail De Bierve goes.

THE CORAL CUP – 4.00 Cheltenham

An absolute minefield for punters and we are likely to see 7 or 8/1 the field. There are plenty of concessions available though and most firms are going 5 places so there is lots of scope for some value.

We’ll start at the obvious point of PENDRA who has been at the top of the betting for this since his very good second to Melodic Rendezvous at Sandown last time. Unfortunately the winner didn’t take his place in the Supreme yesterday so we don’t know the strength of the form. The other line through Puffin Billy now looks just fair and you can pick holes in his Plumpton win. ABBEY LANE has been very well backed on the back of the Mullins/Walsh three timer yesterday and will come here with an obvious chance after a convincing win in the Boylesports Hurdle last time. He is up a stone for that win in a better race which means I would be inclined to look elsewhere.

Not being overly convinced by the front of the market means that there must be some value elsewhere (we hope). Cash and Go has been disappointing for me and he needs to improve markedly to be considered. Master Of The Sea is up another 12lbs (52 in total) on his quest for a five timer. This could be a step too far and I would be worried about the yard so that means we have ruled out the top four in the market, which could be very shrewd or very stupid.

As always I will be throwing several arrows at this race in the hope of picking up a tidy profit. The first of those darts is the Irish raider UN BEAU MATIN who is a general 16/1 chance. He is a lightly raced five-year old that ran a cracker in a grade 2 last time that suggests to me that he might be on a feasible mark. Conditions should suit and he will form the first part of my profile. Second dart at the treble twenty is ERICHT who seems to be a new horse all of a sudden. His win off 122 last time was impressive and was greeted with a 12lb handshake from Sir Handicapper. Gary Derwin’s excellent 10lb claim largely offsets that rise in the weights and he must be of major interest in here and is a whopping 16/1. The more I look at this race the more I fancy him. He does have his quirks and may well throw in a stinker, but he looked like a horse at Kempton that had turned a corner and he is much too big a price.

I’m not sure who the man with the mic is tomorrow but I’m sure they have prepared a line for BONDAGE. He will need to have improved since he was last seen to be winning off 145 but the break of three months may well have been just what he needed. I think Carberry will be a good partner too and also at 16/1 he has to be part of the portfolio.

The last one I am going to add is BLACK THUNDER who is definitely capable of winning off this mark and I think the undulations of Prestbury Park are perfect for him. He’s a strong stayer as we saw at Haydock when Ruby was livid with himself for letting the leaders get away. He was messed about last time at Kempton and Harry Derham was not overly hard on him. Daryl Jacob takes over and the 35/1 available on Betfair is as Dizzee Rascal would say……B B B B B  B BONKERS.

A four pronged attack.

ERICHT @ 16/1, UN BEAU MATIN @ 16/1, Bondage @ 16/1, Black Thunder 1 pt e/w @ 33/1!

FRED WINTER JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE – 4.40 Cheltenham

This looks an absolute punting minefield unless you have a strong view on a particular runner. There are many unexposed runners in this race. The two that I liked the look of the most were COUNSEL and MEGALYPOS with slight preference for the latter who looks completely unexposed having only had one start in this country on terrible ground at Chepstow. He could be very interesting indeed and would be my overall selection.

WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER – 5.15

It is very rare that I come into this race with a strong opinion but I have to say I was just about the most taken I have ever been with a bumper horse when I watched in amazement how easily REGAL ENCORE won at Chepstow back in October. He looks like a bit of a machine and the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th from that race all have so fair form in the book since that race. He’s about a 9/1 chance tonight and will be my only bet in the race.

Another cracking day in prospect and hopefully loads of winners along the way!

Enjoy and be lucky!

MG

Proform

Greetings Readers! 5 days to go!

Proform

Morning peeps. I must start (again) by apologising for the lack of activity on here over the last few weeks. I’ve been involved in a couple of projects that have taken up a lot of my time that are now out the way so I will be back on a daily basis. I know many of you will be keen to hear how the 70lb challenge for Macmillan Cancer Support has been going. Well I am bang on track as after the first two months I am down two stone. I have managed to shed countless chins and many inches so I am now really starting to see the results. Thank you for all of your ongoing support.

I must send my thanks for all your messages about Miako last week. I’ve been involved in racing in one way or another for many years but I can honestly say it was the biggest thrill and best day of my career to become a winning owner. It was a fantastic day. We are very lucky to be in a great team and have an excellent trainer. The Grinch (handicapper) has given him a ten pound rise for the win which on the face of it was expected really. The Racing Post comment the next day of “he won with embarrassing ease” was probably ringing in his ears. Still onwards and upwards, we step up in grade with him now and hopefully he can win a few more times for us. To sum how the rest of that day went, Dicko is still on crutches and most of them are still hungover!

I still have to pinch myself when we say there are only 5 days to go until the festival! amazing how quickly it has all come around. My ante-post book looks like a bit of raw chicken that has been on the sideboard for three months (I ignored the possibility of a horse meat gag). Cinders and Ashes has shortened up in the last couple of days so there is still a glimmer of hope there, but let’s be honest that is really clutching at straws. The only other one I have backed that is shorter or close to the same price is Pique Sous in the Supreme but I honestly cannot see past My Tent Or Yours. He’ll be too short to back on the day but he just oozed class in the Betfair and will surely be too good.

I have spent a lot of time over the last couple of months really getting my teeth into Proform. If you don’t use it or haven’t seen it before then please click on the Proform logo at the top and bottom of the blog and check out the website. It is a truly astonishing piece of kit and a must for anyone that follows racing seriously. Simon will gladly answer any questions you may have.

On we move to today’s racing and there are one or two interesting bets floating about. I’ve just run a system on Proform for the last 14 days and here are the trainers that have an exceptionally high Win & Place strike rate indicating all of their horses are going well……..

Alan Swinbank 83.33%, Julie Fielden 80%, Ed Vaughan 75%, David Nicholls 66.67%, Jeremy Gask 62.50%, Barry Murtagh, Keith Dalgleish and Richard Fahey all 60%.

I would also chuck a couple of others in there with David Simcock (57.14%) as he has a high winning strike rate of 35.71% and do keep an eye on Henry Daly. He hasn’t had many runners but the ones he has had have been flying.

My first bet today is ROYAL BAJAN 5.00 Southwell. He is another one of the horses that has long been on the waiting list for Southwell to re-open. It is a major boost that he managed to win at Wolverhampton two starts back as he is quite clearly going to be a lot better on fibresand as he is by Speightstown. He is 1/1 at the track and he might have several of these off the bridle a long way out. This will require a career best to be winning but he is totally unexposed on the surface and I think he represents a bit of value at 9/2 in this small field.

GLENNACREIM (2.00 Wincanton). Looks particularly interesting off bottom weight in the opener at Wincanton. The Old Vic gelding has been struggling of late but as a result his mark has been tumbling down to a career low of 64. On the pick of some of his old Irish form that makes him a seriously well handicapped horse and whilst he is just as likely to finish last as he is first, the 10/1 available is a reflection of that and therefore I’ll give him a chance.

I like the look of the chances of MITCHELLS WAY (2.10 Carlisle) this afternoon too. He is 4lb higher than his last winning mark but he tends to save his best efforts for this track and the yard could not be going any better as the figures above indicate. This is not as competitive as the numbers actually suggest and he makes plenty of each way appeal at 10/1. He has the assistance of Thomas Garner which is a likely plus in this line up.

The race in which Rudemeister and BALDING BANKER ran in last time looks one to follow and the latter makes definite appeal to me today at the prices. He undoubtedly needs to brush up his jumping but the way he travelled that day suggests to me that he looks a well handicapped horse on paper and he must be backed this afternoon! Rudemeister is an obvious danger given the way he went in that race and quite clearly didn’t see out the trip!  He has been well backed accordingly but I will side with BB and take some of the 5/1 on offer as it reresents a good deal of value.

Hopefully we can bag a few winners and have a nice positive return with the blog! I will of course be previewing all four days of the festival next week.

Be lucky today and back plenty of winners!

MG

Proform