Seasons greetings and all. I trust you have had a wonderful festive period and you are looking forward to the new gym membership in the new year! With racing at its quietest point of the year for me personally I have taken the last day or so to go through the markets in the other sports that I have a long-term interest in. The turn of the year is always a decent time to look at the NHL as we are pretty much at the mid-season point and there are always a few ricks from the books as they are fairly lazy about the prices as they really don’t see much long-term money for them. I have managed to find a few that are of definite interest and hopefully you can get a few shillings on before they cut them.
I will apologise in advance for the first one as I’m not sure how much you will really be able to get on but the biggest mistake in the outright market is for the VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS who are currently 33/1 with 188Bet. They are also the wrong price to win their division but I’ll get to that in a moment.
A brand new franchise this year, they recruited very well. Shot data is excellent and they have been imperious at home. The Golden Knights currently have the 2nd best record in the league, lead the Western Conference and therefore should not be anywhere near 33/1. They are generally around a 16/1 chance which is more in line with their actual price (although I think that is still on the high side). As I said, I don’t what you will get on but the 33/1 should be taken before it disappears. Please have some on for me too whilst you’re at it!!
The Vegas lads should also be backed to win their division with Coral/Ladbrokes at 7/2. I struggle to see both Anaheim and San Jose making up the ground on LA and Vegas. I have it as a two runner affair, therefore the 7/2 looks a good bet as in reality they should be around 2/1.
Second error on the outright market are the vastly improved NEW JERSEY DEVILS. Second in the Eastern Conference and with a 22-9-5 record, the Devils are starting to roll. Most firms have wised to it but 888 sport and Unibet are both 30/1. That is too big for a team of their quality.
Teams improving at a rate of knots are always dangerous when it comes to the back-end of the season and there are two to keep an eye on. The Washington Capitals are post season regulars and have looked much better over the last month or so. They are 16/1 with Boylesports in the outright market and that is another price to be interested in. They are 7/2 to win the Metropolitan Division and I’d be looking to get heavily involved in that price if it wasn’t for the Devils being in there too (5/1). Split stakes on the two would not be your worst bet of 2017.
The other one, and this is not biased in any way is the Boston Bruins. The B’s are hot going 8-1-1 in their last ten and seem to have finally shaken the TD Garden voodoo with a much better home record this year. Boston’s youngsters have added some real depth and whilst they cannot catch Tampa for the division, William Hill’s view that they are a 33/1 shot to go all the way is wrong.
Finally I’ll finish with my main bet, and that is the NASHVILLE PREDATORS to win the Central Division at 2/1 with Bet365. I won’t go in-depth other than to say I think they are the best team in that division and having played fewer games than the chasing pack, I think they are going to be very hard to knock off the top. They are about a 5/4 shot so the 2/1 is a nice price.
Vegas Golden Knights (*what you can at 33/1)
New Jersey Devils – 1pt @ 30/1
Washington Capitals – 2pts @ 16/1
Boston Bruins – 1 pt @33/1
Whilst this is 3/1 Eastern Conference heavy, you could add Nashville if you wanted to be evenly split.
Vegas (Pacific) – 2pts @ 7/2
Washington/NJ (Metropolitan) 2 pts Wash @ 7/2 (Lads/Coral) 1 pt NJ @ 5/1 general.
Nashville (Central) 5 pts win @ 2/1.
15 pts outlay.
Hopefully these will give you plenty of fun across the remainder of the season, and more importantly some decent profit.
All the best
Afternoon one and all. Great to see how many of you have been engaging about the potential of using the Proform software to enhanced your betting experiences. Had several emails and messages to look at some angles for various friends on Twitter and we have highlighted one or two interesting angles.
I have barely touched the jumps scene yet and this is something that I am concentrating on for most of this week. The speed figures and power ratings when used correctly are very powerful indeed on the flat and the all-weather. Now I need to put them to proper use over the sticks too.
One thing I know is always of interest early on is the constant reference to trainers that “do well in October” or “have them well forward early”. So what I did for a little bit of fun today is just run a very quick query in to Proform to see how the profitable trainers performed early season in 2016.
So I looked at all trainers form last year for October and November over hurdles, chases and bumpers. I added in a couple of parameters in to the mix to only give us trainers over 20% strike rate, that showed an overall profit, plus one or two other requirements. This is what we ended up with…..
So an interesting collection of trainers that had their string well forward at the beginning of last season. One or two obvious names in there. From these names I just had a quick gander at the winners from the opening jumps meeting at Chepstow. Rebecca Curtis was 3/10, whilst Paul Nicholls, Fergal O’Brien and Colin Tizzard also had quick starts. Between the four of them at Chepstow last year they had a level stakes profit of 43.01 pts on the opening fixture.
Just a small piece today for some early season jumps interest. If you are considering joining Proform, I believe they are running a 50% sign up offer at the moment. All the details can be found on their Twitter account.
All the best
We hear about various forms of ratings on a daily basis in the pundit world. Racing Post Ratings, Timeform Ratings, Proform Power Ratings etc, but can we use any of these to make us some cash. Having had a few months away from the scene (working not jollying), I took some serious time to have a good look at the Proform Ratings to see if anything what I could uncover.
For those of you that are unfamiliar with Proform, it is just about the most in-depth piece of software available for racing fans. A full form book database that also provides its most valuable feature, the system builder.
Having been an avid user of Proform for some years, even I have barely scratched the surface with this weapon of mass destruction. For Proform subscribers, you will have heard Proform’s top man Simon Walton talking a bit about the DTR System. This is a system that highlights the “double top rated” on both power rating and speed figures. For 90% of people that will have an interest in this piece, this system is hard to run as it relies largely on having plenty of access to BOG bookmaker accounts. Something that has not been seen in these parts for a while. From the emails that Simon passed on, the figures surrounding the Proform Speed Figures really pricked my interest as they seemed to out perform the others by some way, so I spent many hours having a look at if I could eek out some profitability using them.
So as a base to my interest, I ran a system query on all the horses that were the TOP or JOINT TOP speed figure for every race in the UK & Ireland since 1st Jan 2010. Here is the result of that query…..
So the initial look shows that from 105,524 selections, we would have had 22,076 winners but would have done our conkers to the tune of -£825.07 to a £1 stake to BFSP. So clearly from the bottom line, backing all the TOP rated on speed figures would mean the day job continues.
So how can I break this down to see if there is anything we are missing. Next, I asked Proform to break these numbers down by RACE TYPE to see if any codes are better than others….
So from the breakdown of my second report, all of a sudden, maybe there is something to work with. Turf races since Jan 1st 2010 show a profit of £428.73 to £1 stakes to BFSP. At a nice tidy strike rate of 20.74%. All of the other codes show a significant loss. Now whilst this is certainly a step in the right direction, on average this equates to 61.24 points profit per year. So now it is time for me to concentrate solely on the turf figures and see if we can drill this down to improve the overall strike rate and more importantly. The P&L.
So what can we look at next? The variables are enormous. Ground, trip, race type, course…we could go on. So first stop here is to break all of the turf figures down by the classification of the races to see if we can grind out another angle. Here is what was returned….
So from the above image you can now start to draw more of a picture of where the main part of the profits are coming from. Whilst a few of these do tick over a small profit over the time, you can clearly see from this that HANDICAPS are a very profitable angle to work from. So let’s chuck everything else out and have a look at handicaps only and the bottom line that they produce.
So a profit of £487.34 to £1 at stakes to BFSP for all turf handicaps over the past seven years. Again though this does not really give us enough points profit for the amount of work you are going to have getting all these bets on each day. I hope at this point we are starting to build just how effective the Proform system builder can be. Now obviously when we get to this stage, I’m going to be a bit of a tease.I spent a lot of time on this and have found a breakdown that I’ve been following for a while now which is going really well. At the moment, it all goes into a spreadsheet every night is being monitored until the end of the year…
To give you and idea, I played around with the race classifications, race distance which was a big factor and ground conditions too. Once I nailed all this down to be the most efficient I could find it this is what I managed to get the final “system” to produce.
So I’ve managed to almost double the profit to BFSP by playing around with the huge number of variables available on the Proform System Builder. Winners from odds on right the way through to 40/1. What do these figures mean and how do with improve them even more?
Take Hugh Taylor as an example. A fantastic race reader and tipster for Attheraces. I dread to think how many hours a week, Hugh spends watching racing, making notes and assembling his list of horses for potential future bets. As I’ve already mentioned Hugh averages about 206 points profit per year just on his ATR selections. My botched up system above is averaging 116.25 points profit over the last seven years. One thing that will hopefully be a new addition to the software is that evening price figure that Simon has been working with for about 18 months now. By backing all of the system qualifiers the night before ( I normally look at about 7pm) your profit on the above figures at an estimate would at least double. The amount of Proform Top Speed Figure horses that shorten in the market over night are phenomenal. Whilst I have only been collecting these figures on the evening prices for 5 weeks or so, Simon’s figures from the last 18 months more than back this up.
My rough estimation from the evening prices over the same period would suggest that my drilled down system would be approximately 2000 points in profit (285 per year). I will of course each month, give an update on here so anyone that is interested can see how it develops. So far to date in September we are +47.79 points before Friday’s racing. The great thing about Proform is that once your system parameters are saved, the software automatically alerts you of all the qualifiers on the home screen, making placing your bets very easy. They are just as easily copied into spreadsheets too.
The biggest draw down to this system is that you obviously need access plenty of BOG bookmaker accounts too take advantage of the evening before prices. Given the plethora of accounts available, you should have absolutely no problem following this type of system for some time before you run out of options… and as a last resort, it is still very profitable to Betfair SP.
If you have not seen Proform before, check out the website:
Hope this has given you some food for thought on finding some winners based purely on statistics.
An absolutely fantastic time of the year, my favourite without doubt as we head towards the summer season, the flat, cricket and sunny days!
Here are the latest additions to the Proform Horse Watcher that you should be looking to back…..
Steady improvement in 2016 and actually ran really well in a race where they didn’t go quick on re-appearance at Newcastle. Race was won by Wild Hacked which stacks up with the Big Country form and is very strong indeed. Considering he was hampered up the straight and they didn’t go a great pace, he did really well to get as close as he did. Quite possibly a pattern horse moving forward and should be followed under optimum conditions.
A very interesting run after completely missing the break at Newcastle on 14th April 17. He has shown a real liking to this place and is on a nice mark. After missing the break he effectively finished on the bridle after just getting stuck behind a wall of horses about a furlong and a half out. He has clearly come on for his initial outing and is surely ready to win and should be kept on the right side of.
Having won his maiden really easily at Newcastle in January he took another step forward with his run on handicap debut at Nottingham 12th april. Held up out the back he made smooth headway to come through the field to finish 2nd to what looked like an absolute handicap blot in Justanotherbottle. He won this off 73 but could be at least a 90+ horse so I have to mark up Scuzeme. If you watch the video closely, Phil Makin can see that the race is gone and is very sympathetic with him close home yet he still comfortably picks up 2nd. There is every chance on pedigree that he may appreciate a step up to 6 at some point too. One to follow with interest.
A large eye catcher at Nottingham on his re-appearance 12/4/17. Downside to this one is that his run would have been picked up by all the decent race readers and might not be any price at all. Firstly it was a day at Notts were being handy was an advantage. He was noted travelling really well back in the field and as the race developed he had to wait for the gaps to appear before moving to the outside to challenge. He made ground up quickly and was surely unlucky. He has come on for his first run in his first two seasons so should be of major interest in the coming weeks with conditions to suit. Bearing in mind he’s a Lope De Vega, soft ground should not be a problem at all.
She’s only rated 72 and is one of the lesser lights for Gosden but again she has shaped here (12th April – Nottingham) like she is going to be a middle distance horse. Outpaced and slightly unbalanced as the race quickened turning for home, once she was switched out wide she stayed on really nicely without ever really looking like winning. She looks a 12f+ horse to me on all evidence and when stepped up in trip, if placed well she’ll be wining races soon.
Not one for maximum faith but quite interesting all the same. Having steadily dropped down the weights over the last six months he is on an attractive mark. His run at Catterick 12th April has pricked my interest. He was in first time blinkers off a career low mark of 65 and was a little slowly into stride which meant that he was poorly placed at the rear of the field. After coming four wide off the bend, he played bumper cars for the first furlong in the straight but once seeing clear daylight he picked up really well without the weapons being chucked at him. One to keep on side
The Armed Man
This is only a minor entry. Seems to have done well over the winter and travelled really smoothly at Catterick in apprentice race on re-appearance when given a really poor ride by Paula Muir. The horse effectively carried her and nothing more, she took about 100 yards to get her stick sorted. Having tickled down the weights, chances are he’s on a winning mark.
Looks to have done well from 3 to 4 and was absolutely desperate on re-appearance at Ponte 11th April. He was in last on the rail turning in and couldn’t get a clear run. When the gaps came he absolutely flew and just failed to get there. He’ll probably get a rise in the weights for this and would have been picked up by quite a few eyes but he looks like a seriously well handicapped horse on that evidence.
Has changed hands several times which may mean all is not grand but since his switch to Richard Ford he has managed to get him dropped another ten pounds to 67. Peak rating of 80 after his maiden win means he’s on a nice mark now and if you watch his comeback run at Pontefract 11th april 17 you might be salivating. Jockey never moved a muscle on him after a tardy start until long after the race had gone and to the untrained eye it looked like he was just plugging on for a nice fourth place. Watch more closely and you’ll see there is very minimal effort. Chances are he will get dropped a coupled more for this and will become very interesting now in the coming weeks.
A note to remind you all that NEXT STAGE is entered at Newmarket on Tuesday. He hated the soft ground on his final run last year but on what he showed us previously, must be ahead of his mark and should be backed with the ground drying out.
Well February has got off to a flying start. Of the nine eye-catchers I’ve given positive mentions too on the blog over the last few weeks, a total of zero have won. One or two have shown promise for next time, one or two have simply ran terribly. Really disappointed with Big Windmill yesterday. He jumped poorly in truth and was just on the back foot from the first fence. He shaped like that track/trip is too sharp for him. Line through it and move on.
I’m writing this Sunday evening as I’ll be up till god knows what time watching Tom Brady win the Superbowl MVP and Lady Gaga lighting up half time (food break and beer).
Two average meetings on Monday, just a couple of Proform notes in terms of trainer form. Ken Slack, Tracy Waggott and Chris Dwyer have all had a 66.67% strike rate of win & placed horses the last 2 weeks. Ian Williams has sent out 23 runners in the last 14 days, 9 have won.
I will only pass on one horse today from the list and hopefully this one will break the blog hoodoo. HYMN FOR THE DUDES (5.50 Wolverhampton) was a huge eye-catcher two starts back when basically finishing on the bridle back on the 31st May. On the back of that run he was off the track for 8 months before re-appearing at Wolverhampton on Jan 23rd. He clearly needed it and after travelling well through the race he was forced wide and weakened late on in a race where Adam Kirby seemed to be given a charmed life if you get my drift.
The key to this is, I’m sure this was a quiet ride to get him spot on. He is clearly better than his mark of 51 and even more importantly, Adam Kirby has been booked for the ride too. Whilst I am writing this his price is already starting to go tonight, but there is still some 5/1 about so I am happy to put him up.
COLD FUSION is in the same race and it will be interesting to see how she fares back here compared to Southwell last week. I may have a final tiny saver on her as a last chance saloon before she is dropped off the list.
Hymn For The Dudes – 2pts win @ 5/1.
Have fun tonight and be lucky tomorrow!
Just very briefly.
One to note today is COLD FUSION (4.15 Southwell).
Caught the eye a couple of times and it seems this is more his trip. Fibresand suits and he could run well at a very big price. 40/1 in places.