NHL Delight

Evening all. Apologies for the lack of posting recently. Life has been hectic as I’m working hard to build up my freelance duties. I just wanted to write a quick note to thank everyone for the kind messages about the NHL bets. With the Washington Capitals putting up a terrific road performance in Tampa in game 7 last night we have managed to secure both teams in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Vegas at 33/1 (1pt) and Washington 16/1 (2pts) means we are guaranteed a lovely payday. It should be a terrific series and all the more enjoyable having backed both at Christmas. This is another example of the US sports markets that are largely left untouched by the books until past the mid season point (with the exception of the NFL). With the earlier divisional bets already winners we have a guaranteed 41pts profit from the ante-post bets.

There will be some racing blogs on the horizon. The systems analysis went through a brutal period due to the weather in the first quarter of the year. Now the flat is back it has all returned to normal and I will touch on those a bit more over the coming weeks.

Enjoy the rest of the hockey, and alas…. the NFL is only just over 3 months away!!

All the best

 

MG

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Sunday 20th October!

Proform

Afternoon campers. I hope you all enjoyed a great days sport yesterday. Champions day went pretty well with a stunning victory for Farhh in the feature. Lots of credit has to go to the team for having him fit and ready off such a long lay off. He will now head straight for stud duties…. lucky sod. Jack Dexter ran an absolute blinder in the sprint but just failed to get to Slade Power. When previewing the race in the morning with Dicko on Coral TV he was worried about the lack of an out and out front runner and he said SP was a solid bet. A really great shout (again). Very pleased with Dark Lover winning at Cheltenham, although a little lucky as Balder Success looked in control when falling two out. Delighted to see Balthazar King lead at a good pace, jump like a stag and win. I know a lot of people fancied him yesterday.

At Wolverhampton things didn’t pan out. Ajeeb ran a stinker and is probably gone at the game. I won’t touch him again unless I see strong early money. He could do with a change of yard. Available ran well to be 3rd but for one who likes to be on the pace he had to go via Milton Keynes to get near the lead after traveling well into the race. Hannah’s Turn was much to keen and didn’t really do herself justice. I cannot wait to see her back on fibresand where she will win!

Nothing from the http://www.proformracing.com horse watcher today. I do think that Fitzwilly (2.30 Bath) is interesting if getting a soft lead. Maybe a play in running!

NFL SUNDAY

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions

Two improved teams on what we saw last year and I think we are in for a tight one in the early game on Skysports this evening. Both sides have weapons on each side of the ball and I have really enjoyed the progress of Giovani Bernard and Tyler Eifert for the Bengals. They are finally a franchise moving in the right direction. Andy Dalton is not the greatest QB in the game but he is a very good game manager and I expect them to push the Lions all the way. Turnovers could end up being the difference between these two teams today so defense is going to play a huge part. I think the handicap line is so tight here it doesn’t justify a play. I think the under 47 total points is the best play in the game market with the NAP coming on GB to score anytime.

UNDER 47 pts @ 10/11 with William Hill

GIOVANI BERNARD anytime touchdown scorer with Paddy Power at 7/5 (NAP)

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

The later game on sky is a tale of two franchises in opposite ends of the scale that we expected. Houston we have a problem has been used more times than ever in the last few weeks! QB problems a plenty they will be ripe for the picking at Arrowhead tonight. Kansas are 6-0 but they are not a genuine 6-0 team. They have had a soft schedule so far and we will see them in a much better light when they play Denver in two weeks. I think I’ve found a cracker in here though in the sacks market.

SkyBet are going 10/11 on over 5.5 sacks! Neither offensive line is particularly strong and you should get as much as SkyBet will allow on!

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts

One simple and easy bet for you here. OVER 55 PTS. Maximum bet material.

New England Patriots at New York Jets

Once again last week Tom Brady showed why he is probably the best ever. The Pats 4th quarter winning drive was just a joy to behold and had his rookie receivers held on to the ball better in recent weeks they would still be unbeaten. I was very disappointed with the Jets last week and I had the Pats in as 7 pt favs here so the fact you can get -3 on the handicap across the board is a bonus.

NEW ENGLAND -3pts @ 10/11.

I may well stick Bernard (7/5), Pats -3 (10/11), over 55 pts (den v ind) in a sexy treble!

Enjoy the games!

MG

NFL Sunday!!

Proform

Well here we are again, the waiting is over. Sunday’s are no longer spent trying to get a ton at the Dean, it’s now all about the NFL. Fantasy team drafts and picks done, it’s time for the talking to stop and the hitting to start!

We kick off the new season with three cracking games. Sky’s coverage starts with a potential burn up as the Atlanta Falcons travel to New Orleans who are once again under the guidance of Sean Peyton. The later offering is another belter as the Packers travel to last year Superbowl losers the San Fransisco 49ers. The late Sunday night game which again this year will be covered by Channel 4 is an all NFC East showdown between the much talked about Cowboys and Giants in Dallas.

The best news from a TV point of view to come out in the last few days is that Monday Night Football will this year be covered by Eurosport! Now whilst we can’t comment on what the coverage will be like, at the very least this enables the option to record games on busy weeks, an option which was not available on the red button last year when the rights were held by the BBC. Let’s hope that Eurosport have recruited some knowledgeable presenters and not just some standard team members that will fumble their way through it.

Just one more note to any of you that may have missed it. Channel 4 are showing a new series called American Football Hard Knocks which follows a few teams through training camp. It is excellent and shows a side of the game that many of you in this country wouldn’t have seen before. Well worth a watch, set your Sky to record it next week and catch this weeks on 4OD.

Before we get into today’s games let’s have a brief look at the outright markets. The Superbowl market is so tight there is hardly any value to have. The Broncos are jollies at around 6/1 which is barmy short in reality. If this was a 32 runner 6f handicap we would be minimum 10/1 the field. Yes they showed what they are about against Baltimore on Thursday Night but it wasn’t all rosey. Cast your mind back to the 2nd play of the 2nd half. Manning handed the ball off to the RB for no gain…….. what ensued? BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. Sorry was I watching Philly? Crowd getting edgy and booing the play calls that early? Fickle as anything. The game then turns on a 3rd down INCOMPLETE pass that amazingly Harbaugh didn’t challenge. Don’t get me wrong, Denver have a lot of weapons and they also have probably the best game manager the NFL has ever seen in Manning but offenses don’t win Superbowls. In particularly in the first half you saw how key Von Miller is to the Broncos. Without his pass rush Joe Flacco had time for a cup of earl grey, a scone and to gloat about his 120 million dollar contract before releasing the ball. Against read option teams the Broncos games could go over 90 points! I will stick my neck out here and say that the Broncos will not be champions this year. When looking for teams to back in the outright market it is always worth looking at teams that you think will make the playoffs. Then you are in a great hedging situation week by week. Also ignore bookmakers. Betfair’s prices are inflated in the season markets and again give you a wheel for trading in the post season. At this point, the playoff contenders that are big prices on Betfair are as follows:

San Fransisco 9.2 (Shouldn’t be a bigger price than Denver)

Green Bay 14.5

Cincinnati 23

Washington 42

Indianapolis 60

Carolina 80

Minnesota 100

Buffalo 310

Potentially the biggest one of the above is obviously the Redskins. Their season and chances completely revolve around the fitness of RG3. They were ridiculously hot when he got injured in the playoff game against Seattle and the season came to a crashing end. Recovering from an ACL is never easy, but just look how effective Adrian Peterson has been since he had the same surgery. If and it is a big if, he is healthy, then in my opinion (completely unbiased) they will win the NFC East and be big players come Playoff time. I can see them trading on BF at around 10/1 within 4/5 weeks.

You can make a case for some potential improvers. The Bengals could have a good season and should be pushing for a playoff place. I also think the Bills are building a nice franchise and the 16/1 about them to pinch the AFC East is not the worst bet I’ve ever seen. The Patriots are obviously short priced favs but they have lost some key weapons this year and there is definitely an argument for taking them on. I can’t have the Dolphins (sorry Craig) so maybe the Bills at 16’s could surprise a few. They play the Pat’s in the season opener tonight and are massive on the handicap!

PLAYERS TO WATCH!

Without doubt the player I am most looking forward to seeing this year is the Rookie out of Notre Dame TYLER EIFERT. He’s looked good in pre-season and the rumblings coming out of Cincinnati are that he is a beast. He plays Tight End and should see a lot of the ball. He could be a fantasy dream.

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

A great season opener. The Saints will be rejuvenated by the return of head coach Sean Peyton after his year ban due to his part in the bounty scandal. He is a great play calling head coach and the Saints will surely be better than their 7-9 record last year. They lead the league in offense but the big problem was the fact that the D gave up 7042 yards, which is an NFL record. Atlanta have some key additions on both sides of the ball. Steven Jackson has signed from St Louis and British born Osi Umenyiora has joined from the New York Giants. Either way you chalk this up it looks like we are going to get a good old-fashioned slug fest and I expect a gun slinging points fest.

Over 54.5 points with BETFRED @ 10/11

Drew Brees over 326.5 Yards with Hills

Green Bay Packers @ San Fransisco 49ers

Boom. A great way to start. These two are big players in the race for the NFC Championship this year and we should get an opening cracker. The 49ers notched up a 45-31 beating in the post season match up between these two but I don’t expect a huge points fest this time around. The Packers will be delighted to have linebackers Clay Matthews and Nick Perry back and fully fit ahead of the new season which is a huge plus. The negative comes in the secondary as they have lost Charles Woodson (lost his marbles and gone to the Raiders) and Casey Hayward is struggling with a dodgy hamstring so I expect Kaepernick to through the odd deep ball.

On offense the Packers have the major issue of no Bryan Bulaga at left tackle who is out for the year. I fear that Aaron Rogers may have more than one turf sandwich this evening. Main receiver Greg Jennings has joined rivals the Minnesota Vikings and running back DJ Harris is done with a bad knee injury. This should open the door for the potentially very exciting Eddie Lacy who basically ran Alabama to a national championship last year.

Kaepernick has issues too with both Crabtree and Manningham out for a couple of months. As a result the 49ers traded a sixth round pick for Anquan Boldin who 7 months ago, gave them the runaround in the Superbowl.

A game to watch and enjoy without too much involvement but CORAL are going 11/8 Kaepernick anytime scorer. That will do nicely.

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

The division of death (NFC East) opens up with a big rivalry. Both teams failed to make the playoffs last year with defensive issues plaguing both sides. The major change comes in Dallas where defensive co-ordinator Monty Kiffin has replaced Rob Ryan. Under Kiffin Dallas will almost certainly revert to a 4-3 defense.

There are the usual pre-season ramblings coming out of Dallas that they have improved, are hungry and are potential players this year. Yeah yeah, same we’ve heard for the last five years. A big contract extension for Tony Romo (still hope for me yet) means to me much the same. When you talk about much the same……the Giants have won in Dallas for the last four years and Dallas tonight are 4/7 on the money line! No thank you!

Should be fairly brutal and although they were poor at the back-end of last year there is not much between these two at all and whereas Manning is clutch, Romo is an interception throwing, fumbling choker.

New York Giants to win @ 13/8 is enormous.

Victor Cruz over 73.5 yards with Paddy Power @ 10/11

BET OF THE WEEK…..

That would have to be The Bills +10 at home to New England. A Barmy points line in a game that the Bills should be very competitive.

Looking forward to a 10 hour marathon! Hope you all enjoy!

Be Lucky

MG

BING BONG, stewards enquiry, stewards enquiry!

pro5

There are certain things in our sport that drive us mad. Small number cloths, awful rides, non triers, pathetic each way terms, being stuck in the 1960’s…..and so on. Then there are the things that tip you over the edge. Yet again the winning margin has lured the stewards into amending a result when the simple fact of the matter is the better horse won on the day. At the end of a grueling three miles and half a furlong both Rebel Swing and Bishophill Jack under Samantha Drake and Nick Scholfield respectively are out on their feet climbing the Towcester mountain. Both jump the last markedly right-handed before both horses then drifted back towards the rail in a tight finish. Samantha Drake tried her best to change her whip hand but just didn’t have the time, or ability in which to do so. Rebel swing held on in a tight finish and other than a small bump 40 yards from the line there was minimal contact. Now the stewards have come to the conclusion that had there been no interference, Bishophill Jack would have won. Pardon? If they had both run in a straight line over the last, Rebel Swing would have won. Fact.

The inconsistencies within the stewards is baffling and this has finally drawn me to the conclusion that we need to move on and have full-time professional stewards. To rub salt into the wound Samantha was handed a two-day ban………..she has my full sympathy.

 Most of you will know that most of my video study is concentrated on handicaps but I have stuck a few in the notebook from maidens over the last week. DISKO caught my eye at Bath last week and is one to note. As is WIKI TIKI who ran at Windsor on Monday night. Twice now Wiki Tiki has run over 5f and been readily outpaced despite travelling ok. On pedigree she is likely to need at least a mile, probably further and I would expect to see her over 5 or 6 again soonish to get a mark and she might then be held back for a nursery later in the year off a very workable mark. A slightly more obvious one was COSSETED who ran at Nottingham this week in the colours of Cheveley Park. Stayed on really nicely into 2nd with the jockey taking things very easily.

From the last seven days my handicapper to follow is GLOSSY POSSE from the Richard Hannon stable. She endured a really troubled passage at Doncaster last week and Richard Hughes gave up a long way out when he was still travelling very well as she was never going to get close. This was over seven furlongs and she is likely to appreciate a step up in trip too (by Dubawi out of a Fantastic Light mare) and looks like a well handicapped filly off 66!

Today’s cards are tough and I don’t have any eye catchers running. One horse that I do think is interesting to a degree though is RIDGEWAY HAWK (5.20 Southwell). I’m not really an each way punter but he looks a bit of a first three certainty. He can find trouble but he goes well here and is likely to reverse the form with Thorpe Bay from a couple of runs back and maybe we could play it with one point to win and two points to place on the old Betfair machine!

Working on Coral TV today with Martin Kelly. So I will be doing my best to try to make him laugh or mess things up through the day.

Great news that West Ham have made big moves already signing Rat from Shaktar looks a very good piece of business and we have agreed a deal with Liverpool for Andy Carroll. Fingers crossed the personal terms can be agreed. The Bruins won game three last night too and now lead 3-0. A place in the conference finals is within touching distance!

If anyone has a cure for Psoriasis please let me know. Mine has gone bonkers.

Be lucky today,

MG

pro5

Tuesday 4th December

ProformProform

I have to admit to sleeping through my alarm today and I also apologise to the neighbours for the noise late into the night! Another really good performance from RG3 and the Redskins to knock off the Giants and get back to 6-6. It has thrown the division wide open and I have to say gives us an outstanding chance of getting to 10-6. We play Baltimore at home this Sunday which will be crucial, we then have relatively soft games against Cleveland, Philly and finish at home to Dallas. We are basically already into play off football. I hope plenty of you managed to get on the RG3 rushing yards with Laddies. They took the market down a couple of hours after I posted but he covered it comfortably.

Good day on the racing front too as Rapid Water went in at a very tasty price of 10/1.

Today’s racing is on the moderate side but it is good to be racing. I see temperatures are set to drop again later in the week! There are still no entries available for the Tingle Creek? I’ll be there on Saturday to see the delights of Sprinter Sacre vs Sanctuaire….bearing in mind the entries are not yet out I hope we are not looking at a potential 2/3 horse race?

I really like the look of KNOWE HEAD (1.40 WOLV) this afternoon and he is without doubt the bet of the day for me . He is back down to his last winning mark today and actually ran a lot better than the bare result suggested last time where he got stopped in his run at a crucial stage. That was a 0-85 contest and was much warmer than today’s 0-75 where he picks up top weight. I think he looks set to run a really big race and the 12/1 around earlier on has been well and truly mopped up!

I also like the look of FORTUNATE BID (5.10 Wolv) for all the same reasons as I mentioned the other day before he was subject of the abandoned meeting. He is 8/1 with Bet365 which is much too big!

I’m also pretty luke warm on UPTO SOMETHING (1.50 Towcester). He ran poorly last time but had been progressive before that. The Uttoxeter race might actually end up being pretty good as the winner (CONEYGREE) bolted up at Cheltenham next time in what looked a decent novice hurdle. Forgive him that run today and he is a really big player!

I have just gone through the draw for the World Darts Championships which was made this morning. From what I can see it looks like Phil Taylor will be very pleased. He might have to play Adrian Lewis in the 3rd round but he won’t be worried about anyone else on his side of the draw. The top half looks brutal! Barney or Newton will play Anderson in the second round. Huybrechts and Hamilton will probably meet in round 2! Nicholson, Whitlock, Van Gerwen and Chisnall are all set to meet early on aswell! That 3/1 about Taylor last week all of a sudden looks a distant memory! Can’t wait for it to start, just wish i’d got tickets!

Be lucky today,

MG

Proform

Monday 3rd December! NFC East Showdown in DC!

Proform

Well what a weekend to behold! Things got underway in super fashion at Upton Park with the mighty hammers given Chelsea a good beating. I was travelling back from Coral TV at the time and I think a few people on the M23 thought I was a nutter when West Ham scored. At home especially we are picking up points against the big boys so we are making progress and a top ten finish is not out of the question now.

Got home just in time to see Bob’s Worth make a mockery of his mark of 160. He travelled really well and jumped nicely on the whole and looks sure to be a player in the main event at the festival. Well done to all that weighed in. Tidal Bay ran another absolute blinder in finishing 2nd. He’s a remarkable horse. Hold On Julio ran on well to pick up 5th but in truth his jumping just didn’t hold up. He hit 2 or 3 down the back pretty hard and losing 2/3 lengths a time in a race of that nature is unforgiving.

The weekends NFL action was nothing short of Carnage! Andrew Luck’s performance in Detroit was amazing, as was the finish in Chicago! Everyone just continues to beat everyone, it is the most wide open season I can ever remember. Denver are getting really hot under Manning but it is hard to really know how good they are as they have had a pretty soft schedule. The Broncos have only played 4 teams with winning records and have lost three of those games! Tonight’s game is a huge one with the NFC East so tight.

Looks like the weather is finally starting to settle down and we are going to get a good week of racing. Interesting stuff today but I have only managed to find a couple of semi interesting bets. One solid one and one from left field.

RAPID WATER (4.20 KEMP) is a really interesting runner. He was a little unlucky two starts back when not getting the best of runs. His latest effort can be forgiven as he doesn’t get the trip. Back in distance today he is on a very nice mark and gets in today off bottom weight. He was running off marks in the 80’s a couple of years ago and gets in here off 55! The 8/1 around this morning is lovely!

BALTIC PRINCE (4.30 WOLV) is lightly raced and is definitely over priced for his return to Wolverhampton and more importantly 7f today. Still a maiden but is potentially on a fair mark given what we have seen so far around here and there is no way he is a 33/1 chance and there is every chance he could be in the mix up!

New York Giants @ Washington Redskins

Just enormous play off implications going into this contest tonight for MNF. The Giants lead the NFC East on 7-5 and the Skins are 5-6. So if Washington win tonight it will blow the division wide open with 4 weeks to go. Dallas won last night to go to 6-6 too so it is literally tighter than Wonga at the bar. Tonight’s game is a real head scratcher. The game in New York was tight with the Redskins going ahead in the final minute only to give up a big play to Victor Cruz with seconds remaining to give the victory to NY. Giants are slight favourites tonight and that is probably just about right.

The worry for Washington is that their defence is just not good enough although they have played much tougher the last two weeks. The Giants are hot and cold. In New York they really struggled to cope with RG3 and I’m expecting much the same tonight and I think that is where the bet may lie…

Ladbrokes are going RG3 rushing yards at OVER 48.5! Yes please I’ll have the 10/11 as he is likely to bust that in one or two plays…

Should be a quality game and a guaranteed late night! Should also say a big happy 30th to Dicko today. He’s at the HWPA awards and is sure to travel strongly through the day, he might weaken late on and be given a break on the back of it though.

Be lucky today!

MG

pro5Proform

NFL Sunday!

Afternoon campers. A lazy Sunday with no racing and therefore no alarm clock set resulting in waking up at Midday! Cheeky!

Currently watching West Ham at the Spuds. White Hart Lane is so quiet……COYI

Ok on to tonight’s action and it is going to be another late night! Three very intriguing games to get involved with!

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

A huge divisional rivalry tonight from the NFC North with huge play off implications. There is just one game between these two in the race for the playoffs and the winner tonight will have a huge advantage. The Bears have promised much but in the last few weeks have offered little and with QB Jay Cutler suffering from concussion, it is not yet confirmed he will play. Minnesota are the typical transition franchise. Plenty of up and coming youngsters mixed with a few veterans that are certain to be a real force in the coming years. First things first on the money line Chicago are way too short at 2/5. They are the better team if healthy but they are not 2/5 shots which instantly makes the Vikes interesting on the handicap getting 6.5 points. When we saw Houston play in Chicago two weeks ago Arian Foster had a big day and I can see exactly the same happening today with Adrian Peterson. On his day he is the best rusher in the NFL and his comeback from injury so far this year has been immense as he is averaging 5.8 yards per carry. In a hostile environment I think the Vikes will be keen to stay in the game and will run it a lot which should also open things up for the play action pass.

Minnesota +6.5pts – 1pt @ 10/11

ADRIAN PETERSON – OVER 90.5 YARDS – 4 PTS @ 10/11 WITH LADBROKES.

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants

What a game this is going to be and what an effect this is going to have on the play-offs! Green Bay are scrapping for the NFC North title with the two teams in the live early game whilst the Giants have lost their tight grip on the NFC East lead. If they lose tonight they have the task of going to Washington next week with the prospect of being overtaken by the skins. A massive game that has a lot of recent history.

This is a really tight game to call and with personal preference for an obvious Packers win (big Redskins fan) then I can’t really find any value in the win markets. It could be explosive and with both teams a little short on defence I think the play here is to look for the overs on the points.

OVER 51 points generally available at 10/11.

San Fransisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints

This should be another cracker. The Saints are on the march after a more than shaky start and if they keep winning, will get themselves into the playoff race. The 49ers are all over the place. Alex Smith (who I do not rate) gets a concussion, so Colin Kaerpernick comes in and plays a blinder! Who do they go with? Who knows. This has got points written all over it as always in New Orleans but I don’t think you can truly trust either side. One thing you can trust though is Drew Brees’s arm and he is the play here as it is very tough to run on the 49ers.

DREW BREES OVER 290.5 YARDS – 3 PTS @ 10/11 WITH WILLIAM HILL

I hope you enjoy another massive night of NFL action and we can continue the winning streak!

MG

Friday 23rd November!

Morning campers. Well what a fun day yesterday was! the turkey, spuds and gravy was flowing here as we were treated to a couple of NFL crackers for thanksgiving.

My day started with the treat of popping to my nearest Ladbrokes shop, the kind lady behind the counter kindly told me their shop price for the Redskins was 21/11 when I said “bugger, wish I had more cash on me” she looked a little startled.

The hardest game to watch without doubt was the first as Houston never really looked capable of stopping Detroit. For the neutral it was a superb start to the triple header, first the first leg of the treble it was painful to watch and we probably owe the officials a few quid in commission after some barmy penalty calls.

The Redskins game was just about dead and buried by half time. RG3 was imperious and you have to say with their schedule the Skins are still live runners for the NFC East title. My NFL punting guru (@bickers56) keeps telling me I am mad for thinking this, but the Redskins host the Giants next Sunday which all of a sudden is the classic 6 pointer. I would just like to raise a glass collectively to Skybet, Ladbrokes and the lemmings on Betfair that offered baffling prices. Do your research next time. 😉 Thanks for all your messages, it seems plenty of you followed me in on the Redskins and on the treble so we’ve picked up a nice few quid this morning.

My best bet of the day today comes in the form of THE TATTING (6.10 Wolverhampton) He is a progressive horse and looks to be well in under a penalty to me this evening. I expect him to win again. I will be having a saver on Aragorn Rouge as I’ve backed him the last twice and he probably should have won last week.

I really like the chance of KAYLEE (4.10 Wolverhampton) Gary Moore’s lightly raced three-year old has slowly got the hang of things and actually travelled really well last time before being hampered and being given no real chance of winning. This basement mark of 50 looks very nice indeed.She was only half a stride behind Venetia’s Dream that day yet she is priced up as 3/1 fav? Prices are wrong and Kaylee should run a big race and each way at 10/1 is a pretty solid bet for me!

I have also backed IDOL DEPUTY (7.10 Wolv). Looks progressive and a little over priced.

I should wish my sister a happy birthday! She’s currently sunning herself in Australia so at the time I’m writing this she is almost certainly pissed!

Be lucky today

MG

 

NFL Thanksgiving Feast! Skybet running for cover!

Happy Thanksgiving!

I trust that today’s blog finds you in good form and you are looking forward to tucking into your turkey and roast spuds (cooked in goose fat of course) later with lashings of gravy and three big divisional rivalries!

Firstly lets touch on the racing. Yesterday was painful. Again I was in the “I’ve backed a winner” camp when getting on Shore Performer at 14/1 in the morning and see it get smashed into 4/1 fav. At this point you generally feel like a very smug punter who is already counting the cash. Well it doesn’t always work out that way does it? She was much too free and finished out the back. Brimestone Hill didn’t add to my elation either. He travelled like a dream, showed the world what a well handicapped horse he is, got stuck on the rail, couldn’t get out and finished on the bridle. Double bugger.

We have lost two of today’s meetings due to this beautiful english weather. Racing goes ahead at Market Rasen but I couldn’t find a single angle there at all. So I’ve gone into detail on the Kempton card in an attempt to pay for tonight’s festivities!

For what it is worth I think ESTEDAAMA (6.40) is still ahead of the handicapper and I think he will win again. Stanjames are sticking their neck out at 7/4 so that will be the target for the bullseye.

The first of my three strong fancies comes in the 4.40 in the form of MY SWEET LORD. He has taken his time to learn his trade but has actually run a bit better than his results suggest. He has been missing the break and struggling to get back on terms. This is probably the weakest race he has contested and if they go quick (which they should) I though he was of major interest tonight to get us off to a winning start.

I do really like the chances of SELKIES FRIEND (6.10) and would just about make him the best bet of the day. Henry Candy’s gelding has only had the one start to date when winning a soft ground maiden at Newmarket back in July. On the back of that he has been given an opening mark of 78 and some of the horses behind him that day have gone on to achieve better (one is rated 93). He is US bred so a switch to an artificial surface is likely to be in his favour. He also gets a 2lb weight for age allowance and sneaks in off bottom weight. Massive chance and a decent bet at 9/2.

SUGARFORMYHONEY (7.40) travelled like a dream last time and almost led them a merry dance from the front. She struggled to see out the mile that day and she could be a very well handicapped animal dropped back in trip and hopefully Charles Bishop can time it just right.

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys – 9pm

Every now and again a little golden nugget comes along when the odds compilers at all the major firms just show that they don’t know enough about the sports they are betting on. The NFL is one of those sports and tonight we have a mortgage job. Firstly the facts…..the Cowboys and Redskins have played each other six times on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys have won all six. A big factor to this stat is that Dallas have been the home team on all six occasions. This year the Cowboys are 5-5 and the Skins are 4-6. However these records do not tell the full story. The Redkins are really struggling on defense but there offense is very potent under RG3. I watched the Cowboys game against Philly two Sundays back and both teams were dire, it was painful to watch and Dallas eventually came out on top due to a couple of late turnovers. When I priced this game up I had thought the enemy would honestly go 10/11 the pair. So as you can imagine I nearly choked on my corn flakes on Tuesday when I saw SKYBET were going 13/8 Washington and 1/2 Dallas. MAJOR BALLSUP!! I told as many people as I possibly could at the time and needless to say that 13/8 didn’t last too long. They are still readily available at 6/4 which in no uncertain terms is a maximum bet of epic proportions.

Why? Well Dallas have beaten only two teams with winning records. The Giants in week one when New York were too bad to be true and Tampa who are 6-4 but are flattered by a soft schedule. Their other wins have come against Carlolina (2-8) Philly (3-7) and Cleveland (2-8). Three of the worst teams in the NFL by some way. In comparison Washington have beaten New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Philly. They have also lost in tight games to Atlanta (9-1) NYG (6-4) and Cincinatti (5-5) in games you could argue that they probably should have won.

The major outcome of this game lies with the Redksins defence as offensively the Skins will definitely out score Dallas. If the skins D steps up then that 13/8 will be bloody lovely and they actually match up really well against this Dallas team!

I have backed Washington maximum outright and have put them into a treble with Houston and New England!

It should be a cracking night’s entertainment and I hope you enjoy. A big thanks to Skybet……ooooooooosssshhh.

Be lucky today!

MG

Monday Monday……….

A new day, a new week, hopefully plenty more winners!

Good day at Cheltenham yesterday that was almost very good. Close House ran well and looks better than 133 but he just bumped into one on the day.  Coneygree won really nicely and looks a horse with considerable potential. Really pleased for Matt, he deserves another good un.

A lovely winning treble on the NFL last night too as the Redksins, Packers and the Broncos all did the business. The Patriots and the Colts did indeed turn into a scoring fest so hope you did the overs. The bad news coming out of that game is that Rob Gronkowski is having surgery today and will be out for a month. That whatever way you look at it is a massive loss.

It’s the usual Monday fare on the racing front today. I thought the only interesting horse at Leicester was Ciceron in the 2.10 but you can’t back him with any confidence as his seem to leave with Santa last year….. he would beat these comfortably on his hurdles form and with the yard going so well he could be of interest. He will need to bounce back though. I thought Lord Singer (2.20) was mildly interesting at Plumpton. He might be overpriced but I haven’t convinced myself to back him.

My bet of the day by some way though comes over at Wolverhampton in the form of JUNGLE BAY (4.00). Jane Chapple-Hyam’s gelding has been running with real credit of late in some tough races. Today he gets a drop in class, gets in off bottom weight and is actually on a really nice mark. Ian Burns is going to take off a very handy 7lbs and the draw is spot on. He has had one run at Wolverhampton over this course and distance which resulted in a win. Everything is pointing towards a big run and he is massively overpriced at 10/1 this morning and I have arranged for the turkey, stuffing and mince-pie money to be collected each way.

I can’t really leave today without a little mention for everyone bawling on about the X-Factor. The whole thing is a tv farce. Saturday Tullisa was getting on her high horse about how much of a joke it was etc. I should remind her that two Saturdays ago she had the opportunity to send Rylan home and she kept him in. You play the game it bites your arse. I really wish they would stop referring to it as “a singing competition”. It is no such thing, otherwise half the final 12 wouldn’t even make it to live shows. It is a popularity contest. The majority demographic of people actually voting are probably 85% female and 85% 12-18 year olds. Hence why the young shit males acts always do well. Look at the illustrious list of names that have finished in the top 2 that are now world-wide chart toppers……

Ray Quinn…….Leon Jackson………Joe McElderry……..Matt Cardle……..Marcus Collins….

Yes thats right, it’s a popularity contest. James Arthur is by far the most talented person by a country mile yet he was in the bottom two. Speechless. His saving performance of Falling was incredible so at least one good thing has come out of the show. I actually hope Rylan now goes on to win it so the whole thing becomes a complete farce and ITV give up. The whole judging panel needs changing. Just watch one episode of the USA version and you will see the gulf in difference. Mr Cowell knows it is a dying flower this side of the pond and has quite rightly jumped ship. At least Derm still gives it a little credibility.

I would like to finish todays note by saying….”Come on you irons”!! 3 pts tonight against Stoke will push us up to 5th in the table……….there are no sign of any bubbles bursting here!!!!

Be lucky

MG