Fire Up The Testa Rossa!

Proform

I won’t dwell on yesterday. As I’d feared the mile was just no good for Gold Return and once she missed the break she was a million. She is certainly not one to give up on and will remain on the interesting list when conditions are more suitable.

I have a couple that I must throw into the mix today. First off I’ve had my first decent go on one since I started blogging again in the form of TESTA ROSSA (7.45 Newcastle). He has improved immeasurably over the last over the last 3 or 4 months and it is almost exclusively down to the test that the all-weather track provides. I am absolutely convinced that he would have won again on Jan 21st had he not been stopped in the run not once but twice. He gets to race off the same mark of 80 in here again tonight and I see no reason why he will not win again granted a clear passage. He is actually 2lbs better off as Lewis Edmunds can claim 5lbs rather than the 3 of Downing. The drop back to 7f doesn’t worry me, there is a chance given how he has raced that it may even suit better and there should be plenty of pace on.

Clearly Safe Voyage is a sharp improver and could be a huge danger but I had them much closer together in the market than they are and at 7/1 I think he represents a decent bet. If it is your way I couldn’t put you off backing him each way as I can’t see him out the first three, but he’s a decent bet for me at the prices.

The other one I have to give a positive mention too is FLY TRUE (2.30 Lingfield). Jeremy Gask’s filly should in my opinion have won last time and I’ll be backing her to gain some compensation today. She’s a hold up horse with an excellent turn of foot. Granted round here she will need some luck, but if the gaps come she will go very close. With Mossgo and Come On Dave in here they should go a relentless clip that will bring the closers in to play. It will be hair-raising late doors but I’m convinced she’s better than her current mark.

TESTA ROSSA – 7.45 Newcastle – 3pts win @ 7/1.

FLY TRUE – 2.30 Lingfield – 1 pt win 9/2.

Be lucky today with your punting….oh and COYI

Proform

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Friday’s action…

Proform

Morning one and all. I hope and trust all is well and that you’ve all been smashing in winners left right and centre. After a dismal day hosting Sussex vs Essex on Wednesday in the Royal London Cup (not due to the cricket, but due to the weather) I finally managed to get back on the horse on the racing front in the last 24 hours or so. Had a good go on Tasleet in the opener at York yesterday. My main bet of the day though was on the Godolphin filly Mistrusting in the last. After her win in the four runner handicap at Newmarket last week I’d convinced myself that she was a potential group horse. I think the way she travelled through the race yesterday lead me to believe that again, it was a nervy last 100 yards but she held on well, possibly just idling in front.

I have started going through the videos, so within a few days we will have a nice big bank of eye catchers and horses to follow. Before we get on to today’s racing, just thought I should give a mention to the test match. It is a really flat pitch. A typical five day Oval pitch. The Aussies showed yesterday that if you get through those early overs, then the afternoon is normally a batters paradise. The next two days are set for very good weather, then there are storms and rain forecast for Sunday and Monday. The draw is available at 7/4 in places this morning. Providing England bat well later on today I cannot see this being anything other than a draw. I think the prices are wrong. I’ve backed the draw. If today follows a similar pattern to yesterday, then I expect the draw will be about 4/7 by the close of play. Tradetastic for all you that like to “cash out”.

I’m still coming to terms with the fact that I can’t click a race replay on RacingPost.com whilst looking at a race. The basic membership is about £14 a month now, and £26 if you include all the tipping pages. Cannot imagine that anyone is paying for that. I use the basic package but only due to the fact that all of my notes are stored on the database. Once I upgrade my office computer, I think I many well transfer all my notes onto the Proform database so that it’s all in one place. Taking the videos off the website I’m sure is a big mistake.

Found the opening race at York difficult. Plenty of possibilities, but nothing that leapt out for a bet. I don’t have a strong opinion in the Yorkshire Cup either. I wouldn’t be surprised if anyone of them won to be honest.

First bet of the day will be Richard Pankhurst in the Sky Bet City Of York Stakes at 3.05. I know he’s only had two starts and has had 426 days off since winning the Chesham last year but that was a really taking victory, one that suggested he was going to be better than listed class. He is in great hands and I’m sure he’ll be ready. He is a general 13/2 chance this morning, if that had been at this years Royal Ascot he’d be 6/4 so I think he represents value and if he is anywhere near his best; I think he’ll be really hard to beat. I will be having a small saver on Short Squeeze. He was given one of the rides of the season in a big handicap here last year by Smullen and he is back on board today. Whilst he is probably better at a mile, there is a good chance this will be frantic. Salateen, Toocoolforschool and Glory Awaits all have double figure pace figures on Proform so I’m expecting a strong gallop and this brings Short Squeeze into calculations. At 12/1 I’ll be saving on him.

On to the feature race of the day the Nunthorpe at 3.4o and I cannot get away from ACAPULCO. She ran to a topspeed figure of 110 at Ascot. Only Muthmir (111) has run anywhere near that this season. She gets a 24lb allowance from her elders here which whatever way you look at it makes her very very hard to beat. Tactics may be important. There is the smallest chance things could get to her jockey Irad Ortiz Jr, who is not guaranteed to get the best of receptions from the patriotic’s. The Nunthorpe is a race that can throw up an odd result too. All things said, I honestly could’t go against her. I hope she wins. Whether she is bankable at 2/1 or not I’ll leave up to you. She might go in a multiple.

acapulco-easton-angel_3315932

I’ll jump to the evening card at Wolverhampton for the next interest. BUSH BEAUTY (8.20) is mildly interesting in the class 6, 6 furlong handicap. Normally better over slightly longer she needs a real test at six to figure but I think we may well get that tonight as Cloak And Degas, Captain Future, Bosham and Indian Affair all like to rattle along. We have to forgive the run last time but she has never shown much on turf. Back on tapeta she is drawn in stall 2 so Rachel Richardson can just pop out and take her time. If they go stupid up front then she will be a big player when they turn for home. She comes out top on the PROFORM  ratings by some way too. She’s 10/1 in places this morning and must represent a fairly good each way bet.

At Sandown in the opener I thought KOMEDY (2.20) may be interesting. She has a piece of form (debut) that would make her particularly interesting off an opening mark of 64. Her last run in a maiden certainly smacked of “nursery type” and the yard are in much better form than earlier in the year. I’ve had a small interest on her at 7/1.

On a totally separate note, the Redskins went 2-0 in pre-season last night after beating Detroit 21-17, that unfortunately though does not tell the story. The first two quarters, the offensive line decided not to block for RG3, he got hit 7 times and sacked 3 more. He ended with a  busted shoulder and a concussion. This is clearly unacceptable and this needs to be addressed as soon as possible. We moved the ball with ease once Colt McCoy came in. It was all too similar a story to last year when RG3 was in. The pocket was collapsing with ridiculous ease. I hope there is no skulduggery going on.

For the first time I’m starting to think that it might be time to trade him as there are clearly some trust issues within the team.

Have a good day today, be lucky.

MG

Proform

Friday’s selection at a big price

Proform

Just a couple to note today. The first of which I’m quite keen on a big price. I like the chances of Divine Call (5.45 Wolverhampton) who has been running ok in similar races without troubling the judge. Again last time out here he was only beaten 2 lengths in the end despite being last turning for home. Under both of his last two rides I scribbled “would be very interesting under Baker” and hey presto! George is riding today. He will be patient, he will probably need some luck and will certainly need a pace to run at but with Spowarticus in the field, coupled with several young riders, I think they might go a real good clip. If they do and George can time things right then he is surely overpriced off a mark that is 6lbs lower than his last winning one. There are obvious dangers but Risk N Reward has been winning at Southwell and needs a career best on a track he hasn’t sparkled at so happy to take him on. I thought ITALIAN TOM might be the main danger. He has dropped to a very dangerous mark and is probably worth monitoring. All in all Divine Call looks a real interesting each way bet at a swanky price.

DIVINE CALL – 2pts each way @ 12/1 with Bet365 & WilliamHill

The second horse I will back today is LAST SHADOW (2.30 Kempton). Won off 105 on reappearance at Uttoxeter back in November before an average effort off today’s mark on New Years Day. That was right in the middle of Jonjo’s cold snap and with the yard absolutely thriving over the last few days it is not hard to see him continue that potential promise of improvement today.

LAST SHADOW – 2 pts win @ 7/2 generally.

Of the remainder well it will be great to see WEST WIZARD back on course this afternoon. He has hinted on both occasions that he has been beat that a step up in trip might be the making of him. He is 33/1 for the Neptune this morning, that might look a very big price come 2.10 this afternoon. I hope he wins really well. Elsewhere I thought THE FRIARY was very interesting up in trip at Bangor (3.15). Whilst at Wolverhampton tonight I liked the look of TOP COP in the opener (5.15) as there is plenty of pace on there and he might just sit and pounce down in grade. Steve Rogers should win again up in trip and Cookie Ring ran better than the form suggests last time. Stepping up to seven should suit him and he is the least exposed in that race.

All in all good to have a full day’s racing back. Let’s hope George can pull all the string s later on!

Be lucky!

MG

Proform

Thursdays racing

Proform

Morning peeps.  One of those days today where several horses that I have been waiting for are all going and we seemed to have been found some opportunities.

We will start proceedings with TELEGRAPH (2.55 Wolverhampton) who would surely have won last time out with better luck in running. He is currently down to his last winning mark of 57 (equal lowest) and should really have picked up the prize last time out when being trapped on the inside rail and having to be pulled back by John Egan on at least two occasions. As they turned for home both he and the well backed winner went for the same gap, the winner got it and again Egan had to switch, once he regained momentum it was too late and he went down by half a length. This today is a weaker race and whilst I respect one or two who are down to basement marks, I would be disappointed if Telegraph were not good enough.

TELEGRAPH 2 pts win @ 2/1 with SKYBET (Best odds guaranteed).

I really like the chances of CABAL (4.05 Wolverhampton) to follow up his victory from last week. He won well last week when pulling clear with another notebook horse that is also well handicapped after tanking through the race. This if anything looks weaker than that contest and with only a 4lb rise to contend with it is hard to see him not winning again. There is money this morning for the top two which is good news. They are regularly backed but rarely perform and it has pushed our price right out.

CABAL –  4 pts win @ 3/1 with SportingBet. (BOG).

Another with outstanding claims today is CELESTINE ABBEY (4.35) who with slightly more luck would have gone close to winning last time with a better run. Held up last the race developed around her and she never had a chance to land a blow. That was a 0-65 and she has dropped down to 0-55 company this afternoon with the handicapper also generously dropping her another 3lbs. This puts her just a pound above her last winning mark and she should be up to taking this weak affair.

CELESTINE ABBEY 3 pts win @11/4 with Boylesports/Betway.

I feel inclined to throw a point at LITTLE CHOOSEY (6.40 Chelmsford) who we backed last time. She didn’t have the best of runs, constantly wide and giving away ground. The winner that day was ridden by Ali Rawlinson and it’s interesting he takes this ride today as he is perfect for her. If he can sit as quietly as possible on her till as late as possible then I think she’s likely to go close in a race where several of these have something to find.

LITTLE CHOOSEY 1 pt win @ 11/2 generally (BOG).

The 7.10 at Chelmsford is an interesting contest and case can be made for several of the runners. There is so much pace in here however that I felt it might be worth chancing a point on LONG AWAITED. He ran well in some better races last term and might just find several of these falling into his lap late on if he is ready to go after a break.

LONG AWAITED 1 pt win @ 7/2 generally.

I will also place Telegraph, Cabal and Celestine Abbey in a 1 pt treble. Which pays 39/1 via oddschecker.

Be Lucky

MG

Proform

Two selections go in Monday’s log

Proform

Morning peeps. Left slightly frustrated yesterday as things didn’t go my way. At Chelmsford you had to be right on the pace to have any chance so that didn’t pan out. I thought we’d nicked a biggie on KRUZHLININ who went off at a BFSP of 22.4 and traded at 1.17 jumping the last but got chinned by the progressive horse in the race. That was an interesting prep run for his national campaign. I’m sure that plenty of you may have traded out in running for a profit. Bravo if you did.

Unfortunate we’ve lost the jumping action today but we have two fairly decent Monday cards on the all-weather and I do like the look of a few. First up we got to the last race on the card at Lingfield (4.20) to back SEA TIGER. He’s not had much racing to date with just nine starts all told and has dropped right down to a basement mark of 45. He hinted (again) last time that a step up in trip might bring about a bit of improvement and he gets that today. My one worry about the race is that there is hardly any natural pace in here so this potentially could get messy. Hopefully Pat Cosgrave will go forward from stall one (has a sleeper in Munsarim in two) and just sit handy to pounce. We will need some luck and a bit of improvement but both are possible so at 20/1 I think we can throw a bullet at it.

SEA TIGER 1 pt win @ 20/1 BET365 and William Hill.

We have to back RAT CATCHER (5.40 Wolverhamton) later on too. He’s thrown in on some of his back form and has ben running well without winning of late. Although I think he might want six furlongs now this is going to be fast and furious and having been drawn in stall one, Rob Hornby will be able to take his time and pounce as late as possible. Obviously in this type of race we may need a bit of luck but if the gaps appear then I think he will go very close to winning and can’t see him out the frame.

RAT CATCHER 2 pts each way @ 5/1 generally.

Be lucky!

MG

Proform

Friday Blog!

Proform

Mixed emotions really about the action on Wednesday as we had a decent winner at 7/1 that was very well backed and two rather disappointing efforts either side. There was money for Daring Dragon and to be fair the race wasn’t really run to suit so he remains of interest in the short-term. With Dutch S the writing was on the wall before the off as she drifted drastically close to post time. Should always remember not to back against the West Ham theme as Pretty Bubbles won well again.

On to Friday’s action and I have managed to find a few particularly interesting runners to get involved with.

First up we got to Lingfield at 1.30 to back FEB THIRTYFIRST. Sheena West’s six-year-old had five starts on the level back in 2012 and was largely disappointing. A switch to hurdling brought about some rapid improvement and he has shown a fair level of form in most starts over timber on some bad ground. He is lightly raced for his age and is now potentially thrown in here off a mark of 46 (was rated 124 over hurdles). This huge drop in grade should bring about a great winning opportunity back on the level.

FEB THIRTYFIRST 2.5pts win @ 4/1 Bet365/Betfair Sportsbook.

Next on the hit list today is THE WEE CHIEF (2.35 Lingfield). Has gone down the weights like me off the ten metre board on splash! Thus there is an element of doubt attached to this one. He has however run well fresh in the past (back off a 213 day break) and Jimmy Fox has just started to have a few winners. With Luke Morris on board for the first time, he looks primed and ready to run well especially if plenty of money comes for him. On a side note to this race keep your eyes on VOLITO. He is totally being lined up for a winning sequence in my opinion. His habit of missing the break doesn’t help but he is also well handicapped now. Initially they booked George Baker for today but he is now elsewhere. Today probably not the day but I would not put you off having a little saver just in case. Keep your eyes on him in the run.

THE WEE CHIEF 1.5 pts win @ 9/2 with PaddyPower

0.5 pts saver on VOLITO at any price you like on Betfair.

The most interesting horse of the day for me though runs at Wolverhampton in the 6.45 in the form of Lady Cecil’s SYNAESTHESIA. Just four starts in maiden company for the daughter of High Chaparral (out of a Selkirk mare) and shown just modest form. The eye catcher for me though was last time when she ran better than the bare form suggested under an interesting ride. She travelled well enough and when they quickened off the bend Ted Durcan decided to switch her up the inside rail at Lingfield (not advised). He also, never at any point, touched her with the whip. I don’t think the drop back in trip will be an issue as there is not a lot of pace in the race so I can imagine that Adam Kirby will have her handy so he can kick and dictate off the bend. She is certainly bred to be better than 66 and she is very close to maximum bet material for me.

SYNAESSTHESIA – 4 pts win @ 4/1 generally.

Slightly off topic but it seems that Tom Segal came to pretty much the same conclusion to me about the Arkle so hopefully plenty of you managed to get on when we put up up a week or so ago at 25/1. The price hasn’t altered too much since but nice to be ahead of the market and I’m sure he will be much shorter come race time.

Have an awesome Friday and be lucky!

All the best

MG

Proform

The Wednesday Blog

Proform

Morning campers. Just a little recap on Monday. Disappointing that the main bet Master Of Disguise couldn’t win having been in a perfect position all the way round. Columbia won well enough though to make it a winning day.

First interest of the day today comes at Chelmsford in the 2.40 in the form of Derek Shaw’s DARING DRAGON. His form for the past year has been sketchy to say the least but as a result has dropped to a pound below his only winning mark. He switched to Shaw’s yard in August and just had the one run so has now had plenty of time to acclimatise. He has gone well fresh in the past and his better efforts have come on polytrack. I just felt that at morning prices this morning he is probably overpriced and was therefore worth an investment.

DARING DRAGON 1pt each way @ 12/1 generally.

Next up on the interesting list is the Daniel Kubler trained TRIMOULET (4.10 Chelmsford). Handicap debut this afternoon off a mark of 65. There is strong reason to believe that this mark is generous. Giving the impression the last twice that there is plenty of improvement in him. Given the fact that a step up to ten furlongs may also bring about a bit more I think he is clearly very interesting today.

TRIMOULET 1 pt win @ 7/1 generally.

DUTCH S (6.15 Kempton) is really interesting later on. She didn’t quite finish her summer off as expected but has been given a bit of time (a regular feature of Clive Cox) and I expect a big run from her. One or two of her speed figures suggest that she is very capable of winning off 73 and I think she is a really interesting bet tonight and would expect to see money for her with Kirby on board.

DUTCH S 3 pts win @ 7/2 (Stan James)

Have a great day and be lucky,

MG

Proform

Monday’s blog action…

Proform

Not the ideal start to proceedings on Saturday. Both runners a tad unfortunate in the 1.25 and then Kodiac Lady was forced to go up the inside in a race that didn’t really pan out as expected. They all remain of certain interest.

MASTER OF DISGUISE ( 2.40 Wolverhampton) kicks a new week off today. Hasn’t won for three years but as a result has dropped miles in the weights and has been unlucky the last twice. Not a massive fan of backing horses in these amateur races but have no qualms about Serena Brotherton. She is as good as it gets in this grade and from a good middle draw I would be disappointed if he doesn’t win today.

Master of Disguise – 2 pts win @ 7/2 generally

COLOMBIA (3.10 Wolverhampton) caught the eye on handicap debut last time and runs off the same mark here today against her own age group. There is a chance she is going to be a fair bit better in time than 49 and should be backed today.

Colombia 1 pt win @ 4/1 generally

All the best

MG

Proform

Tuesday Blog: Maximum bet time???

Proform

Eye Catchers Coming Soon

Morning everyone. A really nice and quiet few days and not too much to report. The racing today see’s the turn in the tide really as we start to head towards the jumps season. I have managed to find a couple on the card tonight though at Wolverhampton and it is time to open up the shoulders with these….

ANTON CHIGURGH 7.20 Wolverhampton went firmly into the notebook after a solid effort two runs back at Kempton over a mile. They went absolutely no pace that day and as a hold up horse running over a trip which was a bare minimum these days he did well to get within four lengths. Ran in the Silver Cambridgeshire last week but that just didn’t suit. The son of Oasis Dream’s highest rating was 92 and he gets in here off just 74 so he is undoubtedly well handicapped. This is only his 4th start for Philip McBride and with the extra 141 yards to help back on the all-weather tonight, I think he is an absolute must bet.

5 PTS MAXIMUM BET @ 5/2.

DREAM CHILD 6.20 Wolverhampton will also be backed. Three starts in maidens and all fair efforts without setting the world alight. This gives her an opening mark of 75 which looks very workable. The two horses she was behind at Lingfield last time have both won since and are now rated 92 & 85. She was still green last time and has been given three months break. The yard is going well and her two main rivals here (Modernism & Mazaaher) whilst both capable, are also quirky in their own way. She is 3/1 with StanJames and I think she should be favourite with the prospect of plenty more to come with the yard going well.

2 pts win @ 3/1 with StanJames

LOGANS LAD 8.20 Wolverhampton is the last one of the three and is worth a small investment. Put a line through the Redcar run last time and you have a progressive lightly raced four-year old who seems to thrive on the all-weather. Only 3lbs higher than putting up a career best effort back here a month ago and with very similar conditions again tonight I can see him going very close indeed.

1 pt win @ 7/1 with Ladbrokes

All three of the above carry great chances so I would not put you off places them into multiples if you are looking for the bumper payout!

Be lucky!

All the best

MG

Proform

Saturday Blog: Cambridgeshire Day!

Proform

Eye Catchers Coming Soon

Apologies for the shorter nature of today’s blog. I’m on wedding duty so time is tight!

The Cambridgeshire looks a typically difficult puzzle to solve. I have to air on the side of boring and say that I do really like the chances of the morning favourite CORNROW. With the prep run over seven furlongs last time being on the short side of what he wants, I think this has probably been the plan all along. I can see him running a very big race and in a race where you can get six or even seven places with some special offers he is a must back each way.

2 pts e/w with SKYBET @ 13/2 paying 6 places

INSTANT ATTRACTION 8.30 Wolverhampton

He has been on the watch list since his reappearance back in April and won well for me last time out when appreciating the switch to this surface. Only a 5lb rise today and I think there is every reason to believe there could be plenty more to come. He is the best bet of the day for me.

2 pts win @ 11/2 generally.

SURETY – 2.30 Chester

A strong traveller who has not quite been getting home over a mile recently and I have been hoping for a drop back in trip. Gets it today and is well drawn in stall four off bottom weight. I think he is really interesting!

1 pt each way at 12/1.

Again apologies for the short nature of today. Off to see Biggs tie the knot whilst trying to listen to the game at Old Trafford! COYI

All the best

MG

Proform