Winning Without thinking… A final look at the 2017 stats and the P&L.

Evening all. I’d like to start this post off with a little moan about pubs. My parents live in the wonderful small seaside village of Rottingdean down in Sussex. My old man, myself and my brothers all play or have played for the village cricket club at some point through our lives. It’s a wonderful part of the world, but what the hell are the pub landlords playing at? Five pubs all within 200 yards of each other on the high street. Every single one of them has removed their dart boards off the wall. FFS? Must be because they are over flowing with high-end gourmet food customers eh…………………… oh?

Moving on and time to address the multiple in boxes I’ve been getting in regards to the previous posts about the stats betting. The overall line for you all at this point that it continues to prove very profitable indeed. Over the last three-four months or so I have continued to develop several systems that do very well over a substantial period.

I understand that for many of you reading this blog, you will dismiss it immediately. I mean betting on racing purely based on stats? Doesn’t that take away most of the fun of the chase of trying to find that elusive winner? On the other hand the majority will also be people who on the whole; lose from their betting. There are plenty of people who don’t have the attention to detail, skill or indeed the time to be able to find the required angles on a day-to-day basis to find enough winners to make a profit. 95% of twitter are winners, but 99% of punters are losers. You do the maths. The number of people who contacted me on the back of those previous posts shows that there is certainly an interest in that style of betting.

To recap I basically have developed three different strategies. The first one is a take on the Proform Racing DTR (double top rated) system. The basis of it is exactly the same. To be a qualifying selection the horse in question must be top on both the Proform Power Ratings and the LTO Speed Figure. Once this is established the horse must then go through some other parameters to whittle it down. Since the figures for this system began it has NEVER had a losing month. As explained in previous posts, this system relies on being able to back the selections the evening before racing, so bookmaker BOG accounts are needed to make this tick.

Exactly the same is said for system number two. This revolves all around the LTO Speed figures from Proform. I work strictly in handicaps and the selections have to go through several criteria analysis before they are confirmed. Again, BOG accounts are essential for this system to maximise the profits, although it is also very profitable to Betfair SP so this can be run by anyone without being shut down. Backing these the night before however gives approximately a 33% increase to the P&L.

The third system I follow is a combination of about ten mini systems that all show really nice tidy profits over the space of the past five years. I call it the STATBUNDLE. These systems have lots of different angles all together. Everything from sire stats, horses for courses, trainers that do very well first time in handicaps in certain race types, all-weather specialists, track specialist, trainers off a break and so on. It is very varied and really fun to follow. In November alone the pack has produced winners at 66/1 (Betfair SP of 191) and 33/1. It’s taken plenty of time to put all these together but it has also been a lot of fun.

I won’t break it all down completely but I will give you a rough guide as to the three different systems have fared so far in 2017.

THE DTR SYSTEM WITH A TWIST

+505 pts

10/10 winning months in 2017

THE SPEED FIGURES SYSTEM

+310 pts

7/10 winning months in 2017

THE STAT BUNDLE

+767 pts.

9/10 winning months in 2017

So you can see that if you had followed all of the above to 1pt stakes over the course of the year you would have made 1,582 pts. So whilst stat based betting might not be everyone’s cup of tea, it certainly seems to be profitable over time if you put the effort in. What is important from the above figures is that the speed figures system and the stat bundle are all calculated to Betfair SP. So they can be operated by anyone without losing any accounts.

For those of you that have already been in touch and for anyone interested in following these systems, please feel free to follow me on Twitter: @markagrantham

For now though, happy punting!

All the best

MG

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s