Just a little update……

Just thought I would put down a few words as it’s been a while. Firstly thanks for the NHL messages and well done to everyone that backed the divisional bets. For those that missed them, we had 15 points worth of bets at the mid-season point.

Vegas to win the Pacific (2pts @ 7/2) WON +7

Washington to win the Metropolitan (2pts @ 7/2) WON +7

Nashville to win the central (5pts @2/1) WON +10

So we are already 9pts in profit with the outright bets still going. Which are as follows:

Vegas 33/1 now general 8/1

New Jersey 30/1 now general 25’s (will be much shorter if they manage to upset no.1 seeds Tampa in first round of the playoffs).

Washington Capitals (2pts @ 16’s) now general 10’s.

Boston Bruins 33/1 now 6/1 2nd favs.

So we have four lively darts at the jackpot with profit already pocketed. Hopefully at least three of these will get through the first round and we should have great darts at the QF’s.

On the racing front it has been a stupid run. I just cannot remember in my lifetime a sustained period like we are experiencing of bad weather and terrible ground. Speed figures have largely been useless since the turn of the year.

I’ve been chomping at the bit to be running my turf flat season data but the weather has cost us all meetings worth of note so far. I very much doubt I will start them properly until May now. Of all the Proform systems that I’ve developed the Power Ratings System continues to go really well. After finishing 2017 +791.50 pts it is already +114 pts to the good so far in 2018. It is proving to be very reliable indeed. This system has been made available to Proform Platinum subscribers in the new Whatsapp group that has loads of development ideas.

I have been working on a host of new ideas too, some for myself and some for others. One thing to keep your eye on for the time being is horses running second time after a wind op. This is about +50pts so far and is being monitored.

It looks like in the next week or so the weather will finally turn. I’m sure it will take a few weeks for the form to start to settle down but we will soon be up and running.

I’ll be back with more soon.

Enjoy Aintree

MG

 

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2018 horses to follow blog with a difference. 21 Horses to add to your trackers for the coming weeks. Photo credit to @FranAltoftPhoto

With the festival just days away, most of the racing community is firmly in the jumps mould but for myself this is my favourite time of year for a multitude of reasons. It’s like the last hour before dark when you’re carp fishing. Simply the best time of the sporting year. Not only do we have Cheltenham and Aintree but also the start of the cricket season, the snooker World Champs and of course The Masters at Augusta. Throw in to the mix all the football ante-post bets winning or losing and of course the main course is the start of the flat season!

I seem to be looking forward to it more than ever this time around. Probably due to the fact that I missed a lot of it last year due to my work commitments abroad. This time though I am raring to go.

So I thought I would do something a little different. There are so many “horses to follow” pieces that you can read. Most of them concentrate on potential stars or three-year-olds likely to make it to pattern company from handicaps. What I’ve done is compile a list of 21 horses from my Proform Horse Watcher that will hopefully win you some money over the first few weeks of the turf season. They are  a mixture of promising types, well handicapped horses at the bottom of the scale and indeed a couple that seem ready to win either on turf or the all-weather. I have also thrown a few wild cards in at the bottom that may also make an unexpected appearance in the winners enclosure in 2018.

The Three-Year-Olds

Rather than strength of interest I will do them in age order and you can easily add them to your trackers.

BATTLE LINES – JAMES TATE – OR 77

Nothing too flashy to start with. A horse that has had six starts to date and seems to be better than his current mark of 77. I’m not pointing you in the direction of a superstar and he has been well found (favourite first three handicap runs) but I believe he is better than 77. His main trait so far has been his keenness in his races. If you go back to his handicap debut at Newcastle he clearly didn’t relish a stiff ten furlongs so the drop back to eight/nine will be his optimum at the moment. It looks very much like we could squeeze a win out of him before going for some headgear. He actually should have won at Wolverhampton last time in my opinion, just getting trapped in a pocket as the leader took advantage on a day it paid to be handy. He will be winning soon.

DANDIESQUE – RICHARD HANNON – OR 67

A nice handicapper for the upcoming season to follow. I’m sure she went into a few notebooks on the back of her second at Salisbury under Ryan Moore back in September on handicap debut. That booking alone may have hinted Hannon thought she was better than her opening mark of 67. She was lazy early on but as the race progressed she warmed to the task but got into a bit of bother against the rail before finishing nicely. Next time out she got messed about at the start and on her final start she was given a very clever ride out the back at Lingfield. She was dropped 1lb for that last run too. I think we have a potentially well handicapped filly on our hands here who could win us a few races over a mile this season.

GALACTIC – RICHARD HANNON – OR 61

Awarded an opening mark of 68 on the back of three average runs in novice events mid-season. He has dropped 7lbs in the weights on the back of six further win-less efforts. Several of those though caught my attention and although beaten by five lengths on his final start at HQ, the winner there was absolutely lobbed in and I’m sure we have something to work with. He’s by Roderic O’Connor. His progeny all show a level stakes profit in all race types.

All-Weather +95.50 pts

Turf +82.44 pts

Interestingly though stick them on soft ground and his figures improve (+125.09 pts). So I will be interested to see him appear early season when there is some soft in the description. Either way with a winter in him, growth and natural progression I think the Hannon’s have another potentially well handicapped animal to go to war with.

INDIAN WARRIOR – ED DUNLOP – OR 72

Looks a sure-fire winner waiting to happen. He was backed off the boards at Wolverhampton in September (first AW run) but got into all sorts of trouble turning for home and had no chance. On the back of that he was too keen to finish off up the hill at Newcastle and then hated being out the back at Chelmsford on his last run. I found it interesting that he was allowed to drift to 25/1 on this occasion having been so well backed previously. It was no surprise to see him out the back early. He has been gelded on the back of that run and given some time off. We may well see a different horse when he returns, but be very aware of when the money comes for him.

SANDAMA – RICHARD FAHEY – OR 51

One right at the bottom of the scale to add to the squad. Pedigree suggests that at least a mile but likely further will really suit the daughter of Footstepsinthesand. It was very interesting how she was campaigned over mostly six furlongs at two. Even on her final start (most interesting) at Newcastle over seven, she struggled to lie up with them early doors. The further she went the better she went in a race where the front two had gone clear. She finished with loads of running left in her and can be marked up for that run even though the handicapper dropped her another 3lbs. When stepped up in trip this season I think she could be absolutely chucked in off 51.

TRANQUIL SOUL – DAVID LANIGAN – OR 65

Another filly but this time for David Lanigan. David always gives his horses plenty of time to mature and they tend to blossom as they get to three and sometimes even four. The real eye-catching moment was her run at Kempton in September where she showed that she is clearly going to be better than her current mark at some stage (held up off the pace and flew home) ridden by Ted Durcan the last three runs, I like the angle of horses finishing their two-year-old careers at Chelmsford as you can put a line through so many races there for one reason or another. She will win races this season.

ZOFFINIA – RICHARD FAHEY – OR 57

Most punters find it difficult to get excited about a filly rated 57 that has shown very little so far but for me it makes the game at times. If you have a spare five minutes today, take the time to watch back her videos. All five runs were at seven furlongs or a mile and in all of them she shaped like she will be much better suited to middle distances. Her pedigree also hints that this will aid her too. Lots of people see Zoffany as a sire and think speed. All his best form was up to a mile and his peak RPR was 120 at Ascot over that trip. His progeny though show level stakes profits when going over that trip (9f +112.97 and 10f +112.69 to BFSP) and a near 15% strike rate. Given the stamina on the dam side she is sure to appreciate going further this year and I’m sure Fahey will find her some juicy openings of a lowly mark. Exciting.

The Four-Year-Olds

DIAMOND BEAR – SIR MARK PRESCOTT – OR 68

A rather typical Sir Mark slow burner who I’m pretty sure is a bit quirky. He has shaped several times that he might be a slow maturing horse that wants further and probably some head-gear. It’s interesting that you can make the case that he seemed to really enjoy the undulations of both Brighton and Epsom. He arguably would have won at Epsom but for getting in bother at a crucial stage (possibly his own fault). If you then take into account his run behind the very well handicapped PLY at Kempton (hampered at crucial stage when making ground) and his interesting run on his final start. I think he will laugh at this mark over 1m4f plus this season. The blinkers haven’t been tried yet either and I think he could really make giant strides this year. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’s rated in the mid 80’s before we know it.

MAM’SELLE – WILLIAM HAGGAS – OR 89

The daughter of Teofilo didn’t race at two but made giant strides in a short space of time last year. Winning at Lingfield off 72, she then won the Ladies Derby at Newbury off 80 before running a massively eye-catching race in a big handicap at Ascot is September. That performance hinted that a bit further may see her step up into the big time this season. You can ignore her run in France in November as the ground was worse than a three-mile bog round Ffos Las. She should pay her way in 2018.

NICK VEDDER – MICHAEL WIGHAM – OR 73 (AW) 67 (TURF)

I like him. Moved to Michael Wigham from Karl Burke at Christmas and ran a very interesting race on New Years Eve when travelling strongly but never really put in to it. Jockey reported he hung right (eyebrows). He then ran in one of the most bizarre races of the winter when Testa Rossa actually behaved like his name and duly throttled clear. This caught several of the jockeys out shall we say and they ultimately had no chance. He was due to run at Wolverhampton on the 23rd February but managed to bag stall 11 over seven furlongs so was duly pulled out. I think he’s a well handicapped horse who should be kept on side over the coming weeks.

ODEN – NICK GIFFORD – OR 85

One of my favourite winners of last year when he bounded up the hill at Brighton in September on his final start for Roger Varian. The ground was worse than the description that day and one of my favourite angles on turf is to tuck into Lope De Vega’s progeny the first time they encounter bad ground. Admittedly he didn’t beat much and the 9lb slap from the handicapper is far from ideal but I just think he’s interesting. He was sold for 52,000 gns in the HIT sale on the back of this and having gone to Nick’s there is a chance he may now be switched to jumping. Given that performance, I’ll be very  much looking forward to seeing him on soft ground over further this year. Could be a dark horse for pattern races or a big handicap.

OUT OF ORDER – TIM EASTERBY – OR 63

Won’t go into too much detail as I’ve written about him before. He’s a well handicapped horse but he’s been off the track for a year now so has clearly had some problems. I’ve dropped Tim an email to see if he’s still in training, I wonder if I’ll get a reply, will update if I do.

PIONEERTOWN – SIR MARK PRESCOTT – OR 83

He’s another one to add to the list of rapid Sir Mark improvers. He won really nicely twice at the back-end of the year at Newcastle off marks of 73 and 77. Now rated 83, he is sure to improve again this year for going a bit further. He could be a serious weapon going two miles this summer. He has taken a real shine to artificial surfaces so he may even be targeted at some of the bigger races back at Newcastle.

SCUZEME – DAVID BARRON – OR 74

A few of reasons for including Scuzeme in the list. Firstly I’m convinced he’s a well treated animal off his current mark of 74. He in my opinion, has also shaped several times like he will improve a bit for going up to six furlongs having raced exclusively at five. Mr Barron is a master at getting the best out of these sprinting types as they mature and that may well have just been the plan all along. He ran much better than the book suggests on his re-appearance last year behind Justanotherbottle who was chucked in and is now rated 94 (21lbs higher) so it may be that catching him fresh will pay dividends. I’d be very keen on him first time out if he’s upped to six furlongs, but equally an interesting sprinter to follow this season.

STORM OVER – ROBERT COWELL – OR 91

Not the most obvious type for this article given he’s already rated 91. He has shown a real liking for soft ground and has been pulled out a few times when it’s been quicker. He is another one who may sneak under the radar in big sprint handicaps or even pattern company when the rain comes this summer so should be included.

WARRIOR’S SPIRIT – RICHARD HANNON – OR 70

Won his maiden at Newbury over seven furlongs back in September 2016. Awarded an opening mark of 81 he has raced at seven furlongs but mostly a mile. Now you see loads of horses when watching racing that shape like they want further but every now and again you will come across one that you are convinced could be dropped in trip. He is the classic case. I think he’d be really interesting tried over six furlongs. Either way, having dropped 11lbs in the weights we now have a well handicapped beast to add to the squad.

WELOOF – JOHN BUTLER – OR 60

Thought I’d finish the four-year-olds off with a bang. A ridiculously well handicapped animal that has dropped a total of 21lbs in a about six months. If you are wondering how he made the cut, watch the video of his run at Lingfield on 31st December. Obviously he is connected with gamblers so the bigger guess may well be what is the going day but he is just too well in to ignore and I expect him to pay for at least one trip to America this year.

Five-Year-Olds

ALAADEL – STUART WILLIAMS – OR 85

I get to start this section with the horse I originally was most looking forward to seeing from the list. He’s a beautiful son of Dubawi that caught my eye every time he ran last year shaping like he was running over a trip way too short for him.  Francesca Altoft got a couple of cracking pictures of him at Newbury.

Well he proved more than up to the six furlong task when given an absolute peach of a ride from Jim Crowley at Newbury in October on soft ground. Coming from off the pace with a well-timed run to win off a mark of 79.

Given the potential to improve when stepping up in trip I was also really interested to see him entered in the HIT sale at Tatts on the back of this. Not surprisingly he was a little out of my price range and went for 90,000 gns. He was purchased by Mr Morley and has been sent to Stuart Williams. This for the purpose of my punting is not really the best news as the new owner is well-connected to some high-profile gamblers but nevertheless,  I’m sure he’s a well handicapped animal and he will be really interesting in some big handicaps over seven furlongs and upwards this year!

FOREST LAKES – PAUL D’ARCY – OR 57

Talking of big gambles, that leads me nicely on to this lady. Originally with Godolphin for three maiden runs in 2015 she was given a mark of 71. She then spent 2016 in the hands of George Scott. Having tumbled a stone in the weights she re-appeared in January last year having moved to Paul D’arcy for 10,000 gns in the HIT sale. Watch the run at Wolverhampton 13th Jan 17. Very interesting. Clearly though, she has had problems as we haven’t seen her since. If she is still in training, then when she re-appears, she is very well treated.

FOREVER YOURS – DEAN IVORY – OR 58

Looks fairly well lobbed in to me off a career low mark of 58. Absolutely tanked through his race at Lingfield on New Years Eve and should have won but for getting messed about on the bend as the winner kicked for home. Non runner ten days later and hasn’t been seen since which is often the case when connections want an obviously unlucky run to be forgotten. May have just been given a break, but should be winning real soon if all is well.

The Wild Cards!

In this section I’ve just thrown a few random horses in here that are not very obvious but are in my Proform Horse Watcher and are interesting for one reason or another moving forward. I won’t go into too much detail but will give a rough guide.

ANOTHER ANGEL (72) is trained now by Antony Brittain. Shaped like the best horse in the race on final start for Michael Dods at Newcastle and is probably better than his mark of 72. APEX PREDATOR was punted off the boards on the third start in a maiden angle but was withdrawn on vet’s advice. Clearly better than we have seen in his two starts to date and one to keep track of. JUST US TWO (76) finished on the bridle at Musselburgh in September before moving to Mark Pattinson. Had one run for Mark (100/1) and got thrashed out of sight, dropped 5lbs for that run he has now moved to Phil McEntee and should be monitored. MAD ROSE (50) was rated 72 when arriving in this country a year ago. Has fallen down the ladder quicker than Sunderland have the football league and after some “interesting” rides will no doubt be funding a trip to the Bahamas at some point in the near future. POETIC FORCE (84 aw, 71 turf) is an enigma. Been withdrawn a couple of times due to soft ground over the last year when I’m convinced he absolutely wants it soft. Would have gone very close to winning at Epsom but for terrible luck in running on heavy ground in October. On turf, in soft ground he’s a winner waiting to happen. SHAMAR (55) is one to keep on side having been added to the wrong trip/interesting rides list at the back-end of the year. I’ll finish with THIRD TIME LUCKY (95) who I’m convinced is better than his current mark and should exploit it at some point. He has an entry in the Lincoln which is a meeting his trainer does particularly well at.

I hope all of the above with provide you with some exciting anticipation for the upcoming flat season. I am well and truly ready now. These are just a handful of the entries in my Proform and hopefully they will bag us a few quid over the coming weeks. Enjoy the festival, I don’t really have too much to shout about in terms of ante-post positions this year. DIDTHEYLEAVEYOUOUTTO is just about my strongest winner in the bumper. I really like Footpad although I think we will get at least 13/8 maybe bigger about him on the day. Wicklow Brave will probably out run his odds in the Champion Hurdle. I also think Minella Rocco is well worth backing in all the various place markets and at big exchange prices for the Gold Cup. So many of them have questions to answer and just like last year, he’s likely to run past plenty of them up the hill. I think Wonderful Charm will run a huge race in the Foxhunters but my main bet on Friday will be Apple’s Shakira.

Have a wonderful few weeks and be lucky!

MG

 

Proform Power Ratings Profits? Can It Be Done?

Afternoon one and all, I hope this blog entry finds you all well after the festive season. Happy new year to everyone. In the words of John Lennon Let’s hope it’s a good one, without any fear.

So in 2017 I had a good look at various aspects of trying to win without thinking using the data we get from Proform. As mentioned many times before the DTR system put together by Proform continues to work very well. The speed figure systems that were on previous blogs also continue to perform, although they are certainly more effective on the turf than the all-weather. On the back of previous posts I got a lot of feedback and messages revolving around the issue of backing them all with bookmakers that provide best odds guaranteed, the difficulty of getting on, and if there are angles to look at for Betfair SP, thus making it much easier for people to get on. So today I thought I would have a good look at the POWER RATINGS and see if there are any smaller angles we can find simply revolving around them and how we can try to making a profit simply from using Betfair SP that can add a bit more in the way of the profit column.

So first things first let’s run the system builder and get the results of the top power rated horse in all races since January 1st 2011……

 

So as you can see, backing them blind over the course of the last 6 years would not have been a sharp route to the Bahamas. Over 2341 pts lost to BFSP over the period.  Just to get absolute clarity and a clearer picture I’ll break down those results and present them year by year….

 

So quite clearly you get a fairly consistent strike rate in and around 25% but a healthy loss to go with it to Betfair SP. So just like on previous efforts how can we now break this down to try to find an angle or two to turn those negative results in to positives? Let’s start by having a look at all of the same results but this time around I will break them down by their different race types. Maybe they are more profitable on the flat than jumps etc. Here is what we get…..

 

The first thing to obviously notice is that bumpers have a much better performance than anything else, clearly 94 points profit over the span of 6 years is not going to get the juices flowing though. That is a topic that I will almost certainly touch on in the near future as there are definitely some angles to be exploited in bumpers. Largely though, this breakdown doesn’t tell us an awful lot more. Mostly negative figures, especially on the turf, which is completely the opposite to looking at the speed figures. Before I try some other things just to get a bit more clarity, I want to run the same report again but this time I want to look at the different race classifications, just to make a mental note of any particular races that the Power Ratings are very strong in. Here is what we got…

 

Making some notes from what we get here you can see that races at the highest level seem to do pretty well. So grade 1-3 and group 1-3. That is fairly obvious, the top rated in the highest level contests tend to be the best horses in training and should produce a high strike rate. I will write a separate blog post on this area at another time as we approach the flat season. So to sum up at this stage there are no glaring angles to producing a high profit return, so it’s time to start thinking slightly out of the box. What can I change, or look at that may increase the profitability of those Power Ratings.

So what is the most common thing we hear across the world of social media when it comes to making a long-term profit from your betting? That’s right, VALUE. What happens if we look at horses that are top rated, but the market underestimates their chance? Surely this provides us with some value if the horse is top rated but the market has them at a big price? Bearing in mind that the overall loss on all the runners was -2341.60 pts, I started to run the reports in stages to see how the profit and loss reacted to gradually increasing the SP of the top rated horse. Here is what happened…..

The above represents all top rated with an SP of larger than 3/1.

This one represents all top rated with an SP of larger than 5/1. Starting to get the feeling this is going somewhere as that negative figure is getting smaller and smaller.

We move on to an SP of 8/1 and above. Only minus 62, so we are getting ever closer to a profit.

Ta da!!!!  We’ve made it to some profit. 10/1 and above.  A profit of 560.77 across the 6 years gives us an average of 93.46 pts per year. Whilst this is not a huge amount, it is another positive figure to add to the overall figures from your statistical betting. Clearly this is a system that will not suit a lot of punters. It has a very low strike rate of just under 6% and a lot of patience will be needed. Having said that, patience will provide some rewards, it only provides approximately 3 selections per day. 12th February 2011, What A Warrior won at Warwick as the top rated at a Betfair SP of 126.98.

Before I closed the book on this I wanted to have one last look, and this time taking those positive figures from above and once again having a quick look at the results through their race type just to make sure there isn’t something I’m missing.

You can see that chases have a negative impact on the results and that if you put a line through jumps racing and just ran this on the flat, all-weather and in bumpers, you would increase your profitability once again.

The big downside to this approach is that it works off SP. Clearly at 8am when we may be placing our bets, you have no idea what the SP will be, so to give it a very accurate reflection, you would need quite a hands on approach and placing your SP bets close to off time. I’m pretty sure that if you use the overnight prices as a guide and place BFSP bets on anything that is 10/1 or bigger at 8am for instance. This will still show a very similar profit level. If you have the luxury of BOG accounts, then this system again is fairly simple to operate. 93 pts a year is certainly not life changing, but when you add it to the portfolio we have already to started to build, it is more money in the profit column. I hope you have found this mildly interesting again. If you haven’t yet stumbled across Proform before, feel free to click on the image below which will take you directly to the website, where you can find all the information you need.  I will be back in the next few weeks with another piece on yet more Proform angles. Happy punting!

All the best

MG

 

 

Wednesday 3rd Jan

Morning all. It has been an interesting few days across all sports. Well done to those of you that backed Native Robin the other day, he was so weak in the betting throughout the day, but the result was never really in any doubt. He absolutely tanked through the race and could have been called the winner a long way out. The SP of 11/1 (16 BFSP) was a decent touch for those of you with BOG.

On the NHL front, good to see Vegas and Boston continue to win and contract in price. Some of the bookmakers reacted to the bets and prices from the other day, some are still sleeping. Hills cut Boston from 33/1 into 14’s within a day or so. They were mightily impressive again last night winning 5-1 on the road in New York.

Trainers with runners today that have a win and place strike rate of above 50% in the last 10 days:

Nick Williams 75%

Warren Greatrex 72.73%

Kim Bailey 63.64%

Donald McCain 52%

Tim Easterby 50%

A couple of eye catchers worth noting going today. CRITICAL THINKING (7.10) would have gone very close to winning last time had he not got caught out off a slow pace. He’s well handicapped on his old form. Back up in trip with Cameron Noble claiming 3lbs off his back, he looks a cracking bet today at about 9/2. I have had a small saver on SANAM in the same race who could be absolutely lobbed in on his first handicap start for Ed Dunlop.

At Southwell today there are a few speculative wagers to look out for too. In the 1.10 FABELLA BERE steps up in trip. She got outpaced and plugged on last time over a mile. She is bred to like the surface and the slower tempo today might find her in the mix. She’s about 20’s on Betfair. Later on in the final race (3.40) the two complete outsiders MINING ROCKS and GONEWITHTHEWIND are both of the smallest interest. Mining Rocks has never been here before and is bred to appreciate the surface. He’s on a tumbling mark and another 7lbs is taken off by the young rider. Gonewiththewind has dropped to a career low mark, the rider takes off another 3lbs, he’s down in grade. They are 34’s and 60’s on the machine, so I’ll be having small plays at those prices with slightly better interests in the place markets.

Good luck today.

MG

Sunday 31st December Racing Notes

Evening all. Having had a good delve in to the racing on the final day of 2017, I have come across one or two that are worth throwing a couple of quid at.

First up I’ll give you some latest Proform Stats that could help with your punting today.

Trainers In Form:

Trainers with a win & pl strike rate of over 50% over the last 10 days.
Nick Williams 85.71%
Mark Johnston 80%
Michael Easterby  66.67%
T Lacey 66.67%
John Butler 60%
Robert Stephens 60 %
Kim Bailey 57.14%
Jennie Candlish  54.55%
Simon Dow 50%
C Byrnes 50%

 

NATIVE ROBIN (2.35 Warwick) caught the eye and went in the horse watcher on the back of his run at Exeter a month ago. He’s been out of sorts since his return to the track after 18 months on the side lines but at Exeter showed a bit more when getting outpaced over a trip short of his best, before running on a bit once beaten. He’s been dropped another 3lbs for that so is now 6lbs lower than his last winning mark. Add into the mix going back up in trip and a drop in grade back to a 0-105 and he looks an interesting contender. If he’s come on for those two runs he’s a decent bet.

On the opening shows he is available at 6/1 general. 2 pts win.

ADMIRAL BLAKE (3.00 UTTOX) is another well handicapped beast that should be monitored in the betting. Testing conditions are no problem for him and his run in what turned out to be a betting farce at Exeter last time should not be underestimated. Although beaten a long way he plugged on ok at a trip short of his best. Having won at the turn of the year off 75 & 82 a couple of years ago, he should be very capable back down to this basement mark. James Best takes back over in the saddle and he gets in this race off a lovely racing weight of 10 stone. Not beyond the realm of possibility that he returns to some form here.

At 16/1 (Bet365) he is definitely worth having a point each way.

Nap of the day though without doubt has to be MYSTIQUE MOON (1.45 Lingfield). The son of Shamardal has won two of his three starts so far, only losing out to another rapidly progressive Godolphin inmate last time out at Chelmsford. He’s been raised 9lbs for being beaten last time but that race is full of decent form. His successor Arabian Hope won the Ganton Stakes (Listed) at York. Native Soldier won off 75 and Ebbesbourne won off 80. Whilst plenty of these are on the way down, Mystique Moon is still on the up and can take this with a view to being back here on Good Friday.  Alfred Hutchinson is well handicapped and likes it here so should be a danger and monitor the run of Cherbourg. Out of the weights here, but may end up better than this mark at some point in the near future.

Opened at 11/4 tonight with Bet365. I’d be surprised if he was better than 6/4 at the off. 3 pts win @ 2/1 general price.

Will update any others later.

MG

 

 

 

Winning Without thinking… A final look at the 2017 stats and the P&L.

Evening all. I’d like to start this post off with a little moan about pubs. My parents live in the wonderful small seaside village of Rottingdean down in Sussex. My old man, myself and my brothers all play or have played for the village cricket club at some point through our lives. It’s a wonderful part of the world, but what the hell are the pub landlords playing at? Five pubs all within 200 yards of each other on the high street. Every single one of them has removed their dart boards off the wall. FFS? Must be because they are over flowing with high-end gourmet food customers eh…………………… oh?

Moving on and time to address the multiple in boxes I’ve been getting in regards to the previous posts about the stats betting. The overall line for you all at this point that it continues to prove very profitable indeed. Over the last three-four months or so I have continued to develop several systems that do very well over a substantial period.

I understand that for many of you reading this blog, you will dismiss it immediately. I mean betting on racing purely based on stats? Doesn’t that take away most of the fun of the chase of trying to find that elusive winner? On the other hand the majority will also be people who on the whole; lose from their betting. There are plenty of people who don’t have the attention to detail, skill or indeed the time to be able to find the required angles on a day-to-day basis to find enough winners to make a profit. 95% of twitter are winners, but 99% of punters are losers. You do the maths. The number of people who contacted me on the back of those previous posts shows that there is certainly an interest in that style of betting.

To recap I basically have developed three different strategies. The first one is a take on the Proform Racing DTR (double top rated) system. The basis of it is exactly the same. To be a qualifying selection the horse in question must be top on both the Proform Power Ratings and the LTO Speed Figure. Once this is established the horse must then go through some other parameters to whittle it down. Since the figures for this system began it has NEVER had a losing month. As explained in previous posts, this system relies on being able to back the selections the evening before racing, so bookmaker BOG accounts are needed to make this tick.

Exactly the same is said for system number two. This revolves all around the LTO Speed figures from Proform. I work strictly in handicaps and the selections have to go through several criteria analysis before they are confirmed. Again, BOG accounts are essential for this system to maximise the profits, although it is also very profitable to Betfair SP so this can be run by anyone without being shut down. Backing these the night before however gives approximately a 33% increase to the P&L.

The third system I follow is a combination of about ten mini systems that all show really nice tidy profits over the space of the past five years. I call it the STATBUNDLE. These systems have lots of different angles all together. Everything from sire stats, horses for courses, trainers that do very well first time in handicaps in certain race types, all-weather specialists, track specialist, trainers off a break and so on. It is very varied and really fun to follow. In November alone the pack has produced winners at 66/1 (Betfair SP of 191) and 33/1. It’s taken plenty of time to put all these together but it has also been a lot of fun.

I won’t break it all down completely but I will give you a rough guide as to the three different systems have fared so far in 2017.

THE DTR SYSTEM WITH A TWIST

+505 pts

10/10 winning months in 2017

THE SPEED FIGURES SYSTEM

+310 pts

7/10 winning months in 2017

THE STAT BUNDLE

+767 pts.

9/10 winning months in 2017

So you can see that if you had followed all of the above to 1pt stakes over the course of the year you would have made 1,582 pts. So whilst stat based betting might not be everyone’s cup of tea, it certainly seems to be profitable over time if you put the effort in. What is important from the above figures is that the speed figures system and the stat bundle are all calculated to Betfair SP. So they can be operated by anyone without losing any accounts.

For those of you that have already been in touch and for anyone interested in following these systems, please feel free to follow me on Twitter: @markagrantham

For now though, happy punting!

All the best

MG

Trying to find a golden nugget for the coming weeks…

Evening one and all. Hope this post finds everyone well and full of winners. An interesting week in the racing world with nothing much happening in terms of major news, other than Aidan O’Brien getting ever closer to Bobby Frankel’s record for group one winners. Enable will also stay in training at four, which is fantastic news. Longchamp anyone?

My one note from the action the past week or so would be that I’ve convinced myself that Clemmie is now the real deal. Given her pedigree she is surely going to improve for going up in trip and is very exciting. Whether she goes on to win the Guineas next spring is something we have to wait seven months to find out. One thing I’m pretty sure of though is if she doesn’t run again this season and she turns up at Newmarket in May, she’ll be 6/4 on the day, so if you like long-term investments, the 4/1 around is probably for you.

For those of you that follow my ante-post NFL prop bets it was great to see Leonard Fournette have a big weekend. Through five weeks he now has 466 yards and the each way money at 40/1 for leading rusher is definitely a live voucher. Whilst I still have him outside the top three, the way the Jag’s D keeps them in games, their run first nature can only assist in the rookie having a big first season. Let’s hope he stays healthy.

Right so this week, with little time on my hands I wanted to take a slightly different approach and just see if I could find a little nugget for the upcoming jumps season. I started off playing around with the Proform system builder and looking at the fate of favourites and horses at the front of the market to see if I could see any glaring angles.

Not an awful lot showed up, other than similarly to the flat, there are a handful of tracks where favourites have an excellent record. So I changed tack slightly and given we are at the start of the season I started to look at trainers that have their horses in good nick on the back of a break. So I ran a query in to Proform looking at all trainers performance in National Hunt races (chase, hurdle & NHF) on the back of a minimum 60 day break. This threw up plenty of profitable trainers but almost of them were on the back of the odd massive priced winner that skewed the P&L figures.

So again a bit of trimming down and I decided to limit the next search to handicaps only and now we start to pick up one or two potential angles. Five trainers stood out with exceptional strike rates and a lovely healthy profit. I won’t mention them all but I’ll certainly give a positive mention to Olly Murphy who has had a terrific start to his training career in 2017.

From the above criteria, Olly has had 12 runners and 4 winners. So as the winter progresses, he is certainly someone to keep an eye on.

The trainer that stood out above everyone else though was the excellent KEITH DALGLEISH. These figures are represented as always from Jan 1st 2010.

Keith has had just 26 runners in handicaps chases/hurdles in that time on the back of 60+ days off the track, of which 13 have gone on to win with a profit of 41.26pts to BFSP. That is a 50% winning strike rate. What is just as interesting about these figures is that of the 13 that got beat, 9 of those traded at 50% or less of their BFSP in running. So there is no doubt at all that Keith has his horses bouncing and ready to roll in the national hunt season on the back of a break in handicaps. Certainly an interesting angle for all of you that like to trade pre-race or in running.

One thing I would add in to the argument is that all of the winners were priced between 6/4 and 8/1 which would suggest that they were well fancied too. If we run the system again looking at his runners that had an SP of less than 9/1, suddenly the strike rate leaps to 72.22% (83.33% win & place). A total of 13 winners from 18 runners.

So whilst it’s short and sweet this week, and won’t throw up that many selections. When Keith Dalgleish  has a runner in a handicap hurdle or chase on the back of a minimum 60 day break and is a single figure price, you should probably have it on side.

I’m open to any kind of suggestion for something to look at for next week. Feel free to post in the comments and I will take a look.

Have a top week. Thank god the international break is over!

Mark

The final word on the Proform Speed Figures and month end results!

As I’m writing this on Sunday afternoon it would be rude not to start with a mention for Enable. She’s just won the Arc in a hack canter. She is some filly and has been an absolute pleasure to watch throughout the summer months. John Gosden’s handling of her has once again been absolutely exemplary.

So on to the main topic of this blog post as Septemeber has come to an end and I can asses the performance of the various systems that I have been closely monitoring using Proform. I should stress that if this is the first time you have stumbled across this blog, you should probably give the original post a quick gander. It can be found here:

https://mgsportsramblings.wordpress.com/2017/09/22/are-speed-figuresratings-profitable-lets-take-a-look-at-proform_racing/

So how did we do in September? Well first off the double top rated system, which is what is says on the tin. Top on the Proform power ratings and top on the LTO Proform speed ratings. This is a system which produces steady profits month on month and this is how it fared in Sept:

352 qualifying selections, 99 winners, 28.13% strike rate & +43.42pts with a 12.34% ROI.

A reminder that these figures are taken from the prices available the evening before racing and that is now 17 consecutive profitable months from the DTR system. 100% from when Proform started to collect the evening prices last May.

Right, that’s the housekeeping done, so what of the system that I put together using the LTO speed ratings from Proform. Another really good month and I have thoroughly enjoyed tracking all the runners and seeing how it pans out on a daily basis. A reminder that the system that I developed uses the horse that had the highest speed rating LTO in all handicaps on the flat. It then has several other parameters that will remain a secret whilst I continue to develop it. This is how we got on…

542 qualifying selections, 92 winners, 16.97% strike rate & +105.78pts with an ROI of 18.86%. (Profit to BFSP= +35.71 points).

So another brilliant month that now puts it +930.32 points in 2017. The 1000 point marker is firmly in sight. The major negative with the way this works is the sheer volume of selections that it throws up. Through September an average of 18 per day, but in reality in peak summer it is much higher than this.

The highlight of the month was Fire Leopard winning at 20/1 having absolutely cantered through the race from the rear of the field.

There are so many positives though and it is something that I am very much looking forward to monitoring over the coming months. The daily numbers for the system will drop off quite a bit over the winter months as the turf racing comes to an end.

Away from the two main projects I have also been working on about 5/6 other much smaller sample size systems that all show a nice profit over time. For the sake of future analysis I have grouped them all together to become a main “system” as such. They attack various elements of the game. I have already blogged about the Southwell one. I have also developed a lovely little program for some very profitable trainers that have horses returning after a break. I also stumbled across a nice little earner revolving around Godolphin horses. Another string to add to the bow revolves around using the Proform Power Ratings in certain national hunt races and to finish off certain trainers have an excellent record running their horses in maiden races on the flat.

So it seems it will be a very interesting few months following all of the above. The pace will drop for sure until the turf flat season gets into full swing again next spring. I will continue to give occasional updates on how all of it goes.

Happy punting

@markagrantham

 

As winter draws in, let’s tuck in to the good stuff! Southwell anyone?

Firstly thanks for all the feedback on last weeks blog post. It is great to see how many people are taking an interest in not only Proform but also the different approaches you can add to your betting portfolio. Things are going well again in September with winners up to 22/1 so far. The system had a good day on Monday throwing up winners at 9/4, 7/1 and 14/1 as well as a 10/1 winner on Tuesday. Having had a brief conversation with Simon on Friday I can confirm that using the evening before prices makes an enormous difference to the P&L. My estimation was nowhere near as much as reality. As I mentioned Simon only had the evening before prices back as far as May 2016, so for 17 months of data. Having shown a profit of 813.81 from 1st Jan 2010 on the figures I had, Simon confirmed that the actual evening before price profit since last year was +1432.56 which is staggering. There is obviously a deduction to come off this from rule 4’s but it is only minimal in reality. So as things stand, I’m hopefully on to something very interesting. I will continue to monitor this.

As I write this on Tuesday evening this month is currently +35.79 pts in profit. Although not following it as closely, I believe the DTR system is running at about the same sort of figure.

So what next? What’s the next angle to look at? Well given the time of the year and with the flat coming to an end, I thought that I’d have a look at the winter action but hold on, no I’m not like 90% of Twitter. I refuse to start talking about the Cheltenham Festival in September! Although having said that, I do plan to have a look at the festival stats at some point in the next week or two. If you know me well, you know that when it comes to the winter it is all about the all-weather Racing! To narrow my search down I am going to have a good look at Southwell which I’m sure there are a few angles.

So where to start with trying to find a profitable angle when it comes to betting at Southwell. Well my immediate thought is with my own involvement with horses at the track and pals horses that have been shrewdly purchased. We’ve had some wonderful success there, and a lot of it comes from the fact that we managed to get hold of horses that were by Speightstown. Southwell is our only track in the UK that comes close to replicating the conditions of dirt racing in the US and the progeny of Speightstown have an excellent record on the fibresand surface, especially first time up.

So this got me thinking, how do horses perform on the surface based on which country they are bred from. This was my first query into Proform, again using 1st Jan 2010 onwards. The results were as expected, lots of red numbers all over the screen apart from three countries that had the following numbers to BFSP:

France +102.60

Canada +10.73

USA + 649.01

On the back of these numbers I clustered these three countries together and had a look at plenty of the usual variables. Race distance, age etc. The only real variable that had a large impact on the numbers was the race type. Again, lots of red numbers all over the screen, but three very decent plus numbers as follows:

Auction Races: +131.72

Handicaps: +630.34

Maiden Races: +173.34

So once I drilled down all the variables these are the final figures that came out from my system builder results:

Horses from either USA, FRANCE or CANADA, in all AUCTIONS, MAIDENS & HANDICAPS at SOUTHWELL on the AW.

1706 Qualifiers, 292 winners @17.12% strike rate. +£765.48 to £1 at stakes at BFSP and a 44.87% ROI.

Whilst thinking that age and race distance may have an impact on the results, they made very little difference to the outcome.

All in all this equates to an average profit of 109.35pts per year. Which to many people will not seem like a great deal, but remember we are looking at putting together a portfolio of profitable systems that win without you having to do any kind of work other than updating the Proform software and putting the bets on. So this is another one to add to the portfolio and one that I will also monitor over the coming months.


Whilst looking at the above system my mind starting to think about another angle I constantly refer too. It largely comes from an old hunch I used to have that sprinters that ran well and turned up to the track again within a few days seemed to have a good record. Although I never actually had any stats to back this up, was it a myth or reality? So off I went again… searching through Proform System Builder looking for another angle.

My findings were not quite what I hoped but still showed a profitable angle. I basically looked at all horses from Jan 1st 2010 that had finished in the first three of their race and were running again within seven days. Across all racing this showed a very small profit. Once I started to play with all the variables again I managed to start to eek out the negative elements of another potential system.

In the end if you eliminated all races on the all-weather and concentrated solely on turf racing this improved things. Once again, then just using handicaps and removing all other races, the profit grew.

In the end these were the final figures I got too without too much effort since Jan 1st 2010:

12,452 qualifiers, 2,685 winners at a strike rate of 21.56%. +£344.45 to £1 stakes. +2.77% ROI. So this system whilst I think has some legs, doesn’t currently offer enough a profit for me to be interested in it. I will continue to tweek this until I find something more robust and at the moment can be parked on the “in progress” shelf. I also on the back of this started to play around with winners LTO that were returning to the track within seven days. It returned far less qualifiers obviously but very similar figures in the P&L, so this is another one that I will play around with over the coming months.

If anyone reading this has an idea they would like me to look at, I’m more than happy to delve in to the system builder and have a play around.

Hope some of this inspires you to start to have play with Proform yourself. If you have any questions or comments I’m always available on Twitter: @markagrantham. Roll on the fibresand season!

All the best

Mark

 

 

 

Are speed figures/ratings profitable? Let’s take a look at @Proform_racing

Proform

We hear about various forms of ratings on a daily basis in the pundit world. Racing Post Ratings, Timeform Ratings, Proform Power Ratings etc, but can we use any of these to make us some cash. Having had a few months away from the scene (working not jollying), I took some serious time to have a good look at the Proform Ratings to see if anything what I could uncover.

For those of you that are unfamiliar with Proform, it is just about the most in-depth piece of software available for racing fans. A full form book database that also provides its most valuable feature, the system builder.

Having been an avid user of Proform for some years, even I have barely scratched the surface with this weapon of mass destruction. For Proform subscribers, you will have heard Proform’s top man Simon Walton talking a bit about the DTR System. This is a system that highlights the “double top rated” on both power rating and speed figures. For 90% of people that will have an interest in this piece, this system is hard to run as it relies largely on having plenty of access to BOG bookmaker accounts. Something that has not been seen in these parts for a while. From the emails that Simon passed on, the figures surrounding the Proform Speed Figures really pricked my interest as they seemed to out perform the others by some way, so I spent many hours having a look at if I could eek out some profitability using them.

So as a base to my interest, I ran a system query on all the horses that were the TOP or JOINT TOP speed figure for every race in the UK & Ireland since 1st Jan 2010. Here is the result of that query…..

1. General Breakdwon

So the initial look shows that from 105,524 selections, we would have had 22,076 winners but would have done our conkers to the tune of -£825.07 to a £1 stake to BFSP. So clearly from the bottom line, backing all the TOP rated on speed figures would mean the day job continues.

So how can I break this down to see if there is anything we are missing. Next, I asked Proform to break these numbers down by RACE TYPE to see if any codes are better than others….

2. Race type

So from the breakdown of my second report, all of a sudden, maybe there is something to work with. Turf races since Jan 1st 2010 show a profit of £428.73 to £1 stakes to BFSP. At a nice tidy strike rate of 20.74%. All of the other codes show a significant loss. Now whilst this is certainly a step in the right direction, on average this equates to 61.24 points profit per year. So now it is time for me to concentrate solely on the turf figures and see if we can drill this down to improve the overall strike rate and more importantly. The P&L.

So what can we look at next? The variables are enormous. Ground, trip, race type, course…we could go on. So first stop here is to break all of the turf figures down by the classification of the races to see if we can grind out another angle. Here is what was returned….

Breakdown by race classification

So from the above image you can now start to draw more of a picture of where the main part of the profits are coming from. Whilst a few of these do tick over a small profit over the time, you can clearly see from this that HANDICAPS are a very profitable angle to work from. So let’s chuck everything else out and have a look at handicaps only and the bottom line that they produce.

Handicaps only botom line

So a profit of £487.34 to £1 at stakes to BFSP for all turf handicaps over the past seven years. Again though this does not really give us enough points profit for the amount of work you are going to have getting all these bets on each day. I hope at this point we are starting to build just how effective the Proform system builder can be. Now obviously when we get to this stage, I’m going to be a bit of a tease.I spent a lot of time on this and have found a breakdown that I’ve been following for a while now which is going really well. At the moment, it all goes into a spreadsheet every night is being monitored until the end of the year…

To give you and idea, I played around with the race classifications, race distance which was a big factor and ground conditions too. Once I nailed all this down to be the most efficient I could find it this is what I managed to get the final “system” to produce.

final

So I’ve managed to almost double the profit to BFSP by playing around with the huge number of variables available on the Proform System Builder. Winners from odds on right the way through to 40/1. What do these figures mean and how do with improve them even more?

Take Hugh Taylor as an example. A fantastic race reader and tipster for Attheraces. I dread to think how many hours a week, Hugh spends watching racing, making notes and assembling his list of horses for potential future bets. As I’ve already mentioned Hugh averages about 206 points profit per year just on his ATR selections. My botched up system above is averaging 116.25 points profit over the last seven years. One thing that will hopefully be a new addition to the software is that evening price figure that Simon has been working with for about 18 months now. By backing all of the system qualifiers the night before ( I normally look at about 7pm) your profit on the above figures at an estimate would at least double. The amount of Proform Top Speed Figure horses that shorten in the market over night are phenomenal. Whilst I have only been collecting these figures on the evening prices for 5 weeks or so, Simon’s figures from the last 18 months more than back this up.

My rough estimation from the evening prices over the same period would suggest that my drilled down system would be approximately 2000 points in profit (285 per year). I will of course each month, give an update on here so anyone that is interested can see how it develops. So far to date in September we are +47.79 points before Friday’s racing. The great thing about Proform is that once your system parameters are saved, the software automatically alerts you of all the qualifiers on the home screen, making placing your bets very easy. They are just as easily copied into spreadsheets too.

The biggest draw down to this system is that you obviously need access plenty of BOG bookmaker accounts too take advantage of the evening before prices. Given the plethora of accounts available, you should have absolutely no problem following this type of system for some time before you run out of options… and as a last resort, it is still very profitable to Betfair SP.

If you have not seen Proform before, check out the website:

http://www.proformracing.com

Hope this has given you some food for thought on finding some winners based purely on statistics.

Happy punting

MG

Proform