Morning all. I will start off by just touching on the run of POMME yesterday at Doncaster. After being off the track for over a year, she ran an absolute cracker to finish 4th. Indeed had she jumped the last couple of flights better she would have probably placed. The way she travelled into the race suggests that all of that ability is still there that I had hoped and she certainly becomes a project moving forward. I assume that they may take the option of a run in an equally competitive race next time so that they can get her a nice enough mark. Certainly one to follow with interest.
On to the action on Saturday and I have a couple to pass on that caught the eye last time. I will start with the obvious one in HEAD SPACE (4.15 Lingfield). He was a moral winner given the draw when last seen a week ago having got badly out of his ground and coming with a late rattle weaving between runners to get 2nd on the line. From stall 1 today, Kirby should be able to take a slightly more daring passage and if the splits come at the right time he could be hard to contain.
The 2nd runner that went on to the slightly interesting list last week is one to take a bit of a chance with tonight at Kempton. PULSATING runs in the 7.15 and is available to back as I write this on Friday night at a general 20/1. She caught the eye last week under Milly Naseb when getting slightly caught on heels and knocked about turning for home before picking up quite nicely in the straight in the end to be beaten only a length over what is an inadequate five furlongs. This improved effort came with the introduction of first time blinkers which seem to perk her up. They go with first time visor on Saturday which is no bad thing. There is plenty of pace in here with both White Royal and Ninety Years Young likely to go forward and with Kieran Schofield’s 7lb claim she has a lovely racing weight back at six furlongs which is a big plus. The down side is this is a much better race than she has been running in for a while and whilst that is a negative, we are getting 20/1. I think she should be played each way and if things go to plan and the splits come, we could have a nice voucher in our hands come 7.17!
So the bets away from the main action today are as follows:
Head Space 4.15 Lingfield – Win
Pulsating 7.15 Kempton – E/W.
Enjoy the star-studded card at Cheltenham today, I’m on TV duty all day so will soak it all up from the studio.
All the best
Just a couple to note today. The first of which I’m quite keen on a big price. I like the chances of Divine Call (5.45 Wolverhampton) who has been running ok in similar races without troubling the judge. Again last time out here he was only beaten 2 lengths in the end despite being last turning for home. Under both of his last two rides I scribbled “would be very interesting under Baker” and hey presto! George is riding today. He will be patient, he will probably need some luck and will certainly need a pace to run at but with Spowarticus in the field, coupled with several young riders, I think they might go a real good clip. If they do and George can time things right then he is surely overpriced off a mark that is 6lbs lower than his last winning one. There are obvious dangers but Risk N Reward has been winning at Southwell and needs a career best on a track he hasn’t sparkled at so happy to take him on. I thought ITALIAN TOM might be the main danger. He has dropped to a very dangerous mark and is probably worth monitoring. All in all Divine Call looks a real interesting each way bet at a swanky price.
DIVINE CALL – 2pts each way @ 12/1 with Bet365 & WilliamHill
The second horse I will back today is LAST SHADOW (2.30 Kempton). Won off 105 on reappearance at Uttoxeter back in November before an average effort off today’s mark on New Years Day. That was right in the middle of Jonjo’s cold snap and with the yard absolutely thriving over the last few days it is not hard to see him continue that potential promise of improvement today.
LAST SHADOW – 2 pts win @ 7/2 generally.
Of the remainder well it will be great to see WEST WIZARD back on course this afternoon. He has hinted on both occasions that he has been beat that a step up in trip might be the making of him. He is 33/1 for the Neptune this morning, that might look a very big price come 2.10 this afternoon. I hope he wins really well. Elsewhere I thought THE FRIARY was very interesting up in trip at Bangor (3.15). Whilst at Wolverhampton tonight I liked the look of TOP COP in the opener (5.15) as there is plenty of pace on there and he might just sit and pounce down in grade. Steve Rogers should win again up in trip and Cookie Ring ran better than the form suggests last time. Stepping up to seven should suit him and he is the least exposed in that race.
All in all good to have a full day’s racing back. Let’s hope George can pull all the string s later on!
Apologies don’t have much time this morning but will quickly blast through today’s selections.
WALK LIKE A GIANT – 2.30 Chelmsford – 1 pt win @ 9/2 generally.
THIRD STRIKE/DUKE OF DUNTON 2.35 Kempton – 1 pt win each @ 10/1 @ 9/2.
WENTWORTH FALLS 3.40 Chelmsford – 3 pts win @ 15/8
RIZAL PARK 4.45 Kempton – 2 pts win @ 9/2
More crossbar hitting action again yesterday. Sea Tiger travelled well through the race but got locked in a pocket against the rail as they came down the hill and quickened things up. He barged through to finish fourth without having a hard race and will be of obvious interest over the coming weeks off a basement mark, it was very encouraging how much money came for him.
I’m still not quite sure how Rat Catcher didn’t win. I suspect now that he actually got to the front too soon and is going to be a horse you have to produce on the line. He traded at 1.18 in running. Still he was always going to be an each way certainty in that line up so no damage done and we go again.
We have lost the two jump meetings today so the action revolves around Southwell and Kempton. I’m on Coral TV duties today so I’ll keep it short and sweet.
I’m sure I’m not the only person that added BENNELONG to the horse watcher after his run at Lingfield four days ago. He was held up off a steady pace by his inexperienced rider and never got into the race despite never coming off the bridle. He has dropped to his last winning mark of 59 and has generally saved his best performances for Kempton so in a weak looking race he must come here with outstanding claims. He is a strong traveller that is versatile in his run style but I would exect Amir to have him close to the pace in here.
BENNELONG 3.15 Kempton Park- 2.5 pts win @ 7/2 generally (best odds guaranteed)
I’m sure we have a great opportunity to back ARTIST CRY (4.40 Southwell) this afternoon to get off the mark for Richard Fahey. Progressed with each of three runs in maidens and was actually unlucky not to go close last time after some trouble in running and being well backed. Have the feeling a mark of 60 probably underestimates him and I would be disappointed if he was not good enough to win this.
ARTIST CRY – 4.40 SOUTHWELL – 4pts win @ 9/4 (William Hill – Best odds guaranteed)
Be lucky today
Mixed emotions really about the action on Wednesday as we had a decent winner at 7/1 that was very well backed and two rather disappointing efforts either side. There was money for Daring Dragon and to be fair the race wasn’t really run to suit so he remains of interest in the short-term. With Dutch S the writing was on the wall before the off as she drifted drastically close to post time. Should always remember not to back against the West Ham theme as Pretty Bubbles won well again.
On to Friday’s action and I have managed to find a few particularly interesting runners to get involved with.
First up we got to Lingfield at 1.30 to back FEB THIRTYFIRST. Sheena West’s six-year-old had five starts on the level back in 2012 and was largely disappointing. A switch to hurdling brought about some rapid improvement and he has shown a fair level of form in most starts over timber on some bad ground. He is lightly raced for his age and is now potentially thrown in here off a mark of 46 (was rated 124 over hurdles). This huge drop in grade should bring about a great winning opportunity back on the level.
FEB THIRTYFIRST 2.5pts win @ 4/1 Bet365/Betfair Sportsbook.
Next on the hit list today is THE WEE CHIEF (2.35 Lingfield). Has gone down the weights like me off the ten metre board on splash! Thus there is an element of doubt attached to this one. He has however run well fresh in the past (back off a 213 day break) and Jimmy Fox has just started to have a few winners. With Luke Morris on board for the first time, he looks primed and ready to run well especially if plenty of money comes for him. On a side note to this race keep your eyes on VOLITO. He is totally being lined up for a winning sequence in my opinion. His habit of missing the break doesn’t help but he is also well handicapped now. Initially they booked George Baker for today but he is now elsewhere. Today probably not the day but I would not put you off having a little saver just in case. Keep your eyes on him in the run.
THE WEE CHIEF 1.5 pts win @ 9/2 with PaddyPower
0.5 pts saver on VOLITO at any price you like on Betfair.
The most interesting horse of the day for me though runs at Wolverhampton in the 6.45 in the form of Lady Cecil’s SYNAESTHESIA. Just four starts in maiden company for the daughter of High Chaparral (out of a Selkirk mare) and shown just modest form. The eye catcher for me though was last time when she ran better than the bare form suggested under an interesting ride. She travelled well enough and when they quickened off the bend Ted Durcan decided to switch her up the inside rail at Lingfield (not advised). He also, never at any point, touched her with the whip. I don’t think the drop back in trip will be an issue as there is not a lot of pace in the race so I can imagine that Adam Kirby will have her handy so he can kick and dictate off the bend. She is certainly bred to be better than 66 and she is very close to maximum bet material for me.
SYNAESSTHESIA – 4 pts win @ 4/1 generally.
Slightly off topic but it seems that Tom Segal came to pretty much the same conclusion to me about the Arkle so hopefully plenty of you managed to get on when we put up up a week or so ago at 25/1. The price hasn’t altered too much since but nice to be ahead of the market and I’m sure he will be much shorter come race time.
Have an awesome Friday and be lucky!
All the best
Morning campers. Just a little recap on Monday. Disappointing that the main bet Master Of Disguise couldn’t win having been in a perfect position all the way round. Columbia won well enough though to make it a winning day.
First interest of the day today comes at Chelmsford in the 2.40 in the form of Derek Shaw’s DARING DRAGON. His form for the past year has been sketchy to say the least but as a result has dropped to a pound below his only winning mark. He switched to Shaw’s yard in August and just had the one run so has now had plenty of time to acclimatise. He has gone well fresh in the past and his better efforts have come on polytrack. I just felt that at morning prices this morning he is probably overpriced and was therefore worth an investment.
DARING DRAGON 1pt each way @ 12/1 generally.
Next up on the interesting list is the Daniel Kubler trained TRIMOULET (4.10 Chelmsford). Handicap debut this afternoon off a mark of 65. There is strong reason to believe that this mark is generous. Giving the impression the last twice that there is plenty of improvement in him. Given the fact that a step up to ten furlongs may also bring about a bit more I think he is clearly very interesting today.
TRIMOULET 1 pt win @ 7/1 generally.
DUTCH S (6.15 Kempton) is really interesting later on. She didn’t quite finish her summer off as expected but has been given a bit of time (a regular feature of Clive Cox) and I expect a big run from her. One or two of her speed figures suggest that she is very capable of winning off 73 and I think she is a really interesting bet tonight and would expect to see money for her with Kirby on board.
DUTCH S 3 pts win @ 7/2 (Stan James)
Have a great day and be lucky,
Morning campers. Well yesterday left me feeling like ten rounds with Mr Tyson. Dream Child drifted like a barge on Betfair and was around 8/1 at the off then duly won on the bridle like the well handicapped horse I expected. Anton Chigurgh got smashed all the way down to 11/8 but again there was absolutely no pace on which has cost him as Danny Brock used up loads of petrol to get to the front. Game over. Then Logan’s Lad after being smashed to pieces in the betting again ran a blinder, but was trapped six wide the whole way round and actually went via Milton Keynes to try to win. That effort can firmly be marked up and he is very capable off his new mark. You have to love the game when getting so much right, yet you’re still wrong!
On to today’s action and we have just one runner from the eye-catchers today. A horse that won really well for me last time at Sandown in the form of ONLY TEN PER CENT (5.20 Nottingham). He has taken full advantage of his lower turf mark in recent weeks with two wins from the last three starts. It was the Sandown victory last time that was most pleasing as he actually did it like a horse that is potentially capable of better still. One thing I love in sprinters in form and although he is up 5lbs, this race is no stronger that the Sandown one so I feel he has another good shout today. The early market has spoken in the favour of several others which means he is available to back at 11/1 in most places. Great chance.
1 pt each way at 11/1 generally.
PHILBA – 3.10 Nottingham. Mick Appleby’s son of Cockney Rebel could not have been anymore eye-catching if he tried last time at Sandown. He will relish this step up in trip on handicap debut and in a moderate race I expect him to win well!
4 pts win @ 7/4 generally
BASEM – 3.55 Salisbury. Brother to Farhh that still looks very well treated off 95 now stepping up in trip. He has been well backed but I expect him to win so I will have a few shillings on but the main choice is to double him up with PHILBA.
PHILBA/BASEM 3 pts win double that should pay around 6/1.
Enjoy the day today. All work and no play for me!