2018 horses to follow blog with a difference. 21 Horses to add to your trackers for the coming weeks. Photo credit to @FranAltoftPhoto

With the festival just days away, most of the racing community is firmly in the jumps mould but for myself this is my favourite time of year for a multitude of reasons. It’s like the last hour before dark when you’re carp fishing. Simply the best time of the sporting year. Not only do we have Cheltenham and Aintree but also the start of the cricket season, the snooker World Champs and of course The Masters at Augusta. Throw in to the mix all the football ante-post bets winning or losing and of course the main course is the start of the flat season!

I seem to be looking forward to it more than ever this time around. Probably due to the fact that I missed a lot of it last year due to my work commitments abroad. This time though I am raring to go.

So I thought I would do something a little different. There are so many “horses to follow” pieces that you can read. Most of them concentrate on potential stars or three-year-olds likely to make it to pattern company from handicaps. What I’ve done is compile a list of 21 horses from my Proform Horse Watcher that will hopefully win you some money over the first few weeks of the turf season. They are  a mixture of promising types, well handicapped horses at the bottom of the scale and indeed a couple that seem ready to win either on turf or the all-weather. I have also thrown a few wild cards in at the bottom that may also make an unexpected appearance in the winners enclosure in 2018.

The Three-Year-Olds

Rather than strength of interest I will do them in age order and you can easily add them to your trackers.

BATTLE LINES – JAMES TATE – OR 77

Nothing too flashy to start with. A horse that has had six starts to date and seems to be better than his current mark of 77. I’m not pointing you in the direction of a superstar and he has been well found (favourite first three handicap runs) but I believe he is better than 77. His main trait so far has been his keenness in his races. If you go back to his handicap debut at Newcastle he clearly didn’t relish a stiff ten furlongs so the drop back to eight/nine will be his optimum at the moment. It looks very much like we could squeeze a win out of him before going for some headgear. He actually should have won at Wolverhampton last time in my opinion, just getting trapped in a pocket as the leader took advantage on a day it paid to be handy. He will be winning soon.

DANDIESQUE – RICHARD HANNON – OR 67

A nice handicapper for the upcoming season to follow. I’m sure she went into a few notebooks on the back of her second at Salisbury under Ryan Moore back in September on handicap debut. That booking alone may have hinted Hannon thought she was better than her opening mark of 67. She was lazy early on but as the race progressed she warmed to the task but got into a bit of bother against the rail before finishing nicely. Next time out she got messed about at the start and on her final start she was given a very clever ride out the back at Lingfield. She was dropped 1lb for that last run too. I think we have a potentially well handicapped filly on our hands here who could win us a few races over a mile this season.

GALACTIC – RICHARD HANNON – OR 61

Awarded an opening mark of 68 on the back of three average runs in novice events mid-season. He has dropped 7lbs in the weights on the back of six further win-less efforts. Several of those though caught my attention and although beaten by five lengths on his final start at HQ, the winner there was absolutely lobbed in and I’m sure we have something to work with. He’s by Roderic O’Connor. His progeny all show a level stakes profit in all race types.

All-Weather +95.50 pts

Turf +82.44 pts

Interestingly though stick them on soft ground and his figures improve (+125.09 pts). So I will be interested to see him appear early season when there is some soft in the description. Either way with a winter in him, growth and natural progression I think the Hannon’s have another potentially well handicapped animal to go to war with.

INDIAN WARRIOR – ED DUNLOP – OR 72

Looks a sure-fire winner waiting to happen. He was backed off the boards at Wolverhampton in September (first AW run) but got into all sorts of trouble turning for home and had no chance. On the back of that he was too keen to finish off up the hill at Newcastle and then hated being out the back at Chelmsford on his last run. I found it interesting that he was allowed to drift to 25/1 on this occasion having been so well backed previously. It was no surprise to see him out the back early. He has been gelded on the back of that run and given some time off. We may well see a different horse when he returns, but be very aware of when the money comes for him.

SANDAMA – RICHARD FAHEY – OR 51

One right at the bottom of the scale to add to the squad. Pedigree suggests that at least a mile but likely further will really suit the daughter of Footstepsinthesand. It was very interesting how she was campaigned over mostly six furlongs at two. Even on her final start (most interesting) at Newcastle over seven, she struggled to lie up with them early doors. The further she went the better she went in a race where the front two had gone clear. She finished with loads of running left in her and can be marked up for that run even though the handicapper dropped her another 3lbs. When stepped up in trip this season I think she could be absolutely chucked in off 51.

TRANQUIL SOUL – DAVID LANIGAN – OR 65

Another filly but this time for David Lanigan. David always gives his horses plenty of time to mature and they tend to blossom as they get to three and sometimes even four. The real eye-catching moment was her run at Kempton in September where she showed that she is clearly going to be better than her current mark at some stage (held up off the pace and flew home) ridden by Ted Durcan the last three runs, I like the angle of horses finishing their two-year-old careers at Chelmsford as you can put a line through so many races there for one reason or another. She will win races this season.

ZOFFINIA – RICHARD FAHEY – OR 57

Most punters find it difficult to get excited about a filly rated 57 that has shown very little so far but for me it makes the game at times. If you have a spare five minutes today, take the time to watch back her videos. All five runs were at seven furlongs or a mile and in all of them she shaped like she will be much better suited to middle distances. Her pedigree also hints that this will aid her too. Lots of people see Zoffany as a sire and think speed. All his best form was up to a mile and his peak RPR was 120 at Ascot over that trip. His progeny though show level stakes profits when going over that trip (9f +112.97 and 10f +112.69 to BFSP) and a near 15% strike rate. Given the stamina on the dam side she is sure to appreciate going further this year and I’m sure Fahey will find her some juicy openings of a lowly mark. Exciting.

The Four-Year-Olds

DIAMOND BEAR – SIR MARK PRESCOTT – OR 68

A rather typical Sir Mark slow burner who I’m pretty sure is a bit quirky. He has shaped several times that he might be a slow maturing horse that wants further and probably some head-gear. It’s interesting that you can make the case that he seemed to really enjoy the undulations of both Brighton and Epsom. He arguably would have won at Epsom but for getting in bother at a crucial stage (possibly his own fault). If you then take into account his run behind the very well handicapped PLY at Kempton (hampered at crucial stage when making ground) and his interesting run on his final start. I think he will laugh at this mark over 1m4f plus this season. The blinkers haven’t been tried yet either and I think he could really make giant strides this year. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’s rated in the mid 80’s before we know it.

MAM’SELLE – WILLIAM HAGGAS – OR 89

The daughter of Teofilo didn’t race at two but made giant strides in a short space of time last year. Winning at Lingfield off 72, she then won the Ladies Derby at Newbury off 80 before running a massively eye-catching race in a big handicap at Ascot is September. That performance hinted that a bit further may see her step up into the big time this season. You can ignore her run in France in November as the ground was worse than a three-mile bog round Ffos Las. She should pay her way in 2018.

NICK VEDDER – MICHAEL WIGHAM – OR 73 (AW) 67 (TURF)

I like him. Moved to Michael Wigham from Karl Burke at Christmas and ran a very interesting race on New Years Eve when travelling strongly but never really put in to it. Jockey reported he hung right (eyebrows). He then ran in one of the most bizarre races of the winter when Testa Rossa actually behaved like his name and duly throttled clear. This caught several of the jockeys out shall we say and they ultimately had no chance. He was due to run at Wolverhampton on the 23rd February but managed to bag stall 11 over seven furlongs so was duly pulled out. I think he’s a well handicapped horse who should be kept on side over the coming weeks.

ODEN – NICK GIFFORD – OR 85

One of my favourite winners of last year when he bounded up the hill at Brighton in September on his final start for Roger Varian. The ground was worse than the description that day and one of my favourite angles on turf is to tuck into Lope De Vega’s progeny the first time they encounter bad ground. Admittedly he didn’t beat much and the 9lb slap from the handicapper is far from ideal but I just think he’s interesting. He was sold for 52,000 gns in the HIT sale on the back of this and having gone to Nick’s there is a chance he may now be switched to jumping. Given that performance, I’ll be very  much looking forward to seeing him on soft ground over further this year. Could be a dark horse for pattern races or a big handicap.

OUT OF ORDER – TIM EASTERBY – OR 63

Won’t go into too much detail as I’ve written about him before. He’s a well handicapped horse but he’s been off the track for a year now so has clearly had some problems. I’ve dropped Tim an email to see if he’s still in training, I wonder if I’ll get a reply, will update if I do.

PIONEERTOWN – SIR MARK PRESCOTT – OR 83

He’s another one to add to the list of rapid Sir Mark improvers. He won really nicely twice at the back-end of the year at Newcastle off marks of 73 and 77. Now rated 83, he is sure to improve again this year for going a bit further. He could be a serious weapon going two miles this summer. He has taken a real shine to artificial surfaces so he may even be targeted at some of the bigger races back at Newcastle.

SCUZEME – DAVID BARRON – OR 74

A few of reasons for including Scuzeme in the list. Firstly I’m convinced he’s a well treated animal off his current mark of 74. He in my opinion, has also shaped several times like he will improve a bit for going up to six furlongs having raced exclusively at five. Mr Barron is a master at getting the best out of these sprinting types as they mature and that may well have just been the plan all along. He ran much better than the book suggests on his re-appearance last year behind Justanotherbottle who was chucked in and is now rated 94 (21lbs higher) so it may be that catching him fresh will pay dividends. I’d be very keen on him first time out if he’s upped to six furlongs, but equally an interesting sprinter to follow this season.

STORM OVER – ROBERT COWELL – OR 91

Not the most obvious type for this article given he’s already rated 91. He has shown a real liking for soft ground and has been pulled out a few times when it’s been quicker. He is another one who may sneak under the radar in big sprint handicaps or even pattern company when the rain comes this summer so should be included.

WARRIOR’S SPIRIT – RICHARD HANNON – OR 70

Won his maiden at Newbury over seven furlongs back in September 2016. Awarded an opening mark of 81 he has raced at seven furlongs but mostly a mile. Now you see loads of horses when watching racing that shape like they want further but every now and again you will come across one that you are convinced could be dropped in trip. He is the classic case. I think he’d be really interesting tried over six furlongs. Either way, having dropped 11lbs in the weights we now have a well handicapped beast to add to the squad.

WELOOF – JOHN BUTLER – OR 60

Thought I’d finish the four-year-olds off with a bang. A ridiculously well handicapped animal that has dropped a total of 21lbs in a about six months. If you are wondering how he made the cut, watch the video of his run at Lingfield on 31st December. Obviously he is connected with gamblers so the bigger guess may well be what is the going day but he is just too well in to ignore and I expect him to pay for at least one trip to America this year.

Five-Year-Olds

ALAADEL – STUART WILLIAMS – OR 85

I get to start this section with the horse I originally was most looking forward to seeing from the list. He’s a beautiful son of Dubawi that caught my eye every time he ran last year shaping like he was running over a trip way too short for him.  Francesca Altoft got a couple of cracking pictures of him at Newbury.

Well he proved more than up to the six furlong task when given an absolute peach of a ride from Jim Crowley at Newbury in October on soft ground. Coming from off the pace with a well-timed run to win off a mark of 79.

Given the potential to improve when stepping up in trip I was also really interested to see him entered in the HIT sale at Tatts on the back of this. Not surprisingly he was a little out of my price range and went for 90,000 gns. He was purchased by Mr Morley and has been sent to Stuart Williams. This for the purpose of my punting is not really the best news as the new owner is well-connected to some high-profile gamblers but nevertheless,  I’m sure he’s a well handicapped animal and he will be really interesting in some big handicaps over seven furlongs and upwards this year!

FOREST LAKES – PAUL D’ARCY – OR 57

Talking of big gambles, that leads me nicely on to this lady. Originally with Godolphin for three maiden runs in 2015 she was given a mark of 71. She then spent 2016 in the hands of George Scott. Having tumbled a stone in the weights she re-appeared in January last year having moved to Paul D’arcy for 10,000 gns in the HIT sale. Watch the run at Wolverhampton 13th Jan 17. Very interesting. Clearly though, she has had problems as we haven’t seen her since. If she is still in training, then when she re-appears, she is very well treated.

FOREVER YOURS – DEAN IVORY – OR 58

Looks fairly well lobbed in to me off a career low mark of 58. Absolutely tanked through his race at Lingfield on New Years Eve and should have won but for getting messed about on the bend as the winner kicked for home. Non runner ten days later and hasn’t been seen since which is often the case when connections want an obviously unlucky run to be forgotten. May have just been given a break, but should be winning real soon if all is well.

The Wild Cards!

In this section I’ve just thrown a few random horses in here that are not very obvious but are in my Proform Horse Watcher and are interesting for one reason or another moving forward. I won’t go into too much detail but will give a rough guide.

ANOTHER ANGEL (72) is trained now by Antony Brittain. Shaped like the best horse in the race on final start for Michael Dods at Newcastle and is probably better than his mark of 72. APEX PREDATOR was punted off the boards on the third start in a maiden angle but was withdrawn on vet’s advice. Clearly better than we have seen in his two starts to date and one to keep track of. JUST US TWO (76) finished on the bridle at Musselburgh in September before moving to Mark Pattinson. Had one run for Mark (100/1) and got thrashed out of sight, dropped 5lbs for that run he has now moved to Phil McEntee and should be monitored. MAD ROSE (50) was rated 72 when arriving in this country a year ago. Has fallen down the ladder quicker than Sunderland have the football league and after some “interesting” rides will no doubt be funding a trip to the Bahamas at some point in the near future. POETIC FORCE (84 aw, 71 turf) is an enigma. Been withdrawn a couple of times due to soft ground over the last year when I’m convinced he absolutely wants it soft. Would have gone very close to winning at Epsom but for terrible luck in running on heavy ground in October. On turf, in soft ground he’s a winner waiting to happen. SHAMAR (55) is one to keep on side having been added to the wrong trip/interesting rides list at the back-end of the year. I’ll finish with THIRD TIME LUCKY (95) who I’m convinced is better than his current mark and should exploit it at some point. He has an entry in the Lincoln which is a meeting his trainer does particularly well at.

I hope all of the above with provide you with some exciting anticipation for the upcoming flat season. I am well and truly ready now. These are just a handful of the entries in my Proform and hopefully they will bag us a few quid over the coming weeks. Enjoy the festival, I don’t really have too much to shout about in terms of ante-post positions this year. DIDTHEYLEAVEYOUOUTTO is just about my strongest winner in the bumper. I really like Footpad although I think we will get at least 13/8 maybe bigger about him on the day. Wicklow Brave will probably out run his odds in the Champion Hurdle. I also think Minella Rocco is well worth backing in all the various place markets and at big exchange prices for the Gold Cup. So many of them have questions to answer and just like last year, he’s likely to run past plenty of them up the hill. I think Wonderful Charm will run a huge race in the Foxhunters but my main bet on Friday will be Apple’s Shakira.

Have a wonderful few weeks and be lucky!

MG

 

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Proform Power Ratings Profits? Can It Be Done?

Afternoon one and all, I hope this blog entry finds you all well after the festive season. Happy new year to everyone. In the words of John Lennon Let’s hope it’s a good one, without any fear.

So in 2017 I had a good look at various aspects of trying to win without thinking using the data we get from Proform. As mentioned many times before the DTR system put together by Proform continues to work very well. The speed figure systems that were on previous blogs also continue to perform, although they are certainly more effective on the turf than the all-weather. On the back of previous posts I got a lot of feedback and messages revolving around the issue of backing them all with bookmakers that provide best odds guaranteed, the difficulty of getting on, and if there are angles to look at for Betfair SP, thus making it much easier for people to get on. So today I thought I would have a good look at the POWER RATINGS and see if there are any smaller angles we can find simply revolving around them and how we can try to making a profit simply from using Betfair SP that can add a bit more in the way of the profit column.

So first things first let’s run the system builder and get the results of the top power rated horse in all races since January 1st 2011……

 

So as you can see, backing them blind over the course of the last 6 years would not have been a sharp route to the Bahamas. Over 2341 pts lost to BFSP over the period.  Just to get absolute clarity and a clearer picture I’ll break down those results and present them year by year….

 

So quite clearly you get a fairly consistent strike rate in and around 25% but a healthy loss to go with it to Betfair SP. So just like on previous efforts how can we now break this down to try to find an angle or two to turn those negative results in to positives? Let’s start by having a look at all of the same results but this time around I will break them down by their different race types. Maybe they are more profitable on the flat than jumps etc. Here is what we get…..

 

The first thing to obviously notice is that bumpers have a much better performance than anything else, clearly 94 points profit over the span of 6 years is not going to get the juices flowing though. That is a topic that I will almost certainly touch on in the near future as there are definitely some angles to be exploited in bumpers. Largely though, this breakdown doesn’t tell us an awful lot more. Mostly negative figures, especially on the turf, which is completely the opposite to looking at the speed figures. Before I try some other things just to get a bit more clarity, I want to run the same report again but this time I want to look at the different race classifications, just to make a mental note of any particular races that the Power Ratings are very strong in. Here is what we got…

 

Making some notes from what we get here you can see that races at the highest level seem to do pretty well. So grade 1-3 and group 1-3. That is fairly obvious, the top rated in the highest level contests tend to be the best horses in training and should produce a high strike rate. I will write a separate blog post on this area at another time as we approach the flat season. So to sum up at this stage there are no glaring angles to producing a high profit return, so it’s time to start thinking slightly out of the box. What can I change, or look at that may increase the profitability of those Power Ratings.

So what is the most common thing we hear across the world of social media when it comes to making a long-term profit from your betting? That’s right, VALUE. What happens if we look at horses that are top rated, but the market underestimates their chance? Surely this provides us with some value if the horse is top rated but the market has them at a big price? Bearing in mind that the overall loss on all the runners was -2341.60 pts, I started to run the reports in stages to see how the profit and loss reacted to gradually increasing the SP of the top rated horse. Here is what happened…..

The above represents all top rated with an SP of larger than 3/1.

This one represents all top rated with an SP of larger than 5/1. Starting to get the feeling this is going somewhere as that negative figure is getting smaller and smaller.

We move on to an SP of 8/1 and above. Only minus 62, so we are getting ever closer to a profit.

Ta da!!!!  We’ve made it to some profit. 10/1 and above.  A profit of 560.77 across the 6 years gives us an average of 93.46 pts per year. Whilst this is not a huge amount, it is another positive figure to add to the overall figures from your statistical betting. Clearly this is a system that will not suit a lot of punters. It has a very low strike rate of just under 6% and a lot of patience will be needed. Having said that, patience will provide some rewards, it only provides approximately 3 selections per day. 12th February 2011, What A Warrior won at Warwick as the top rated at a Betfair SP of 126.98.

Before I closed the book on this I wanted to have one last look, and this time taking those positive figures from above and once again having a quick look at the results through their race type just to make sure there isn’t something I’m missing.

You can see that chases have a negative impact on the results and that if you put a line through jumps racing and just ran this on the flat, all-weather and in bumpers, you would increase your profitability once again.

The big downside to this approach is that it works off SP. Clearly at 8am when we may be placing our bets, you have no idea what the SP will be, so to give it a very accurate reflection, you would need quite a hands on approach and placing your SP bets close to off time. I’m pretty sure that if you use the overnight prices as a guide and place BFSP bets on anything that is 10/1 or bigger at 8am for instance. This will still show a very similar profit level. If you have the luxury of BOG accounts, then this system again is fairly simple to operate. 93 pts a year is certainly not life changing, but when you add it to the portfolio we have already to started to build, it is more money in the profit column. I hope you have found this mildly interesting again. If you haven’t yet stumbled across Proform before, feel free to click on the image below which will take you directly to the website, where you can find all the information you need.  I will be back in the next few weeks with another piece on yet more Proform angles. Happy punting!

All the best

MG

 

 

Trying to find a golden nugget for the coming weeks…

Evening one and all. Hope this post finds everyone well and full of winners. An interesting week in the racing world with nothing much happening in terms of major news, other than Aidan O’Brien getting ever closer to Bobby Frankel’s record for group one winners. Enable will also stay in training at four, which is fantastic news. Longchamp anyone?

My one note from the action the past week or so would be that I’ve convinced myself that Clemmie is now the real deal. Given her pedigree she is surely going to improve for going up in trip and is very exciting. Whether she goes on to win the Guineas next spring is something we have to wait seven months to find out. One thing I’m pretty sure of though is if she doesn’t run again this season and she turns up at Newmarket in May, she’ll be 6/4 on the day, so if you like long-term investments, the 4/1 around is probably for you.

For those of you that follow my ante-post NFL prop bets it was great to see Leonard Fournette have a big weekend. Through five weeks he now has 466 yards and the each way money at 40/1 for leading rusher is definitely a live voucher. Whilst I still have him outside the top three, the way the Jag’s D keeps them in games, their run first nature can only assist in the rookie having a big first season. Let’s hope he stays healthy.

Right so this week, with little time on my hands I wanted to take a slightly different approach and just see if I could find a little nugget for the upcoming jumps season. I started off playing around with the Proform system builder and looking at the fate of favourites and horses at the front of the market to see if I could see any glaring angles.

Not an awful lot showed up, other than similarly to the flat, there are a handful of tracks where favourites have an excellent record. So I changed tack slightly and given we are at the start of the season I started to look at trainers that have their horses in good nick on the back of a break. So I ran a query in to Proform looking at all trainers performance in National Hunt races (chase, hurdle & NHF) on the back of a minimum 60 day break. This threw up plenty of profitable trainers but almost of them were on the back of the odd massive priced winner that skewed the P&L figures.

So again a bit of trimming down and I decided to limit the next search to handicaps only and now we start to pick up one or two potential angles. Five trainers stood out with exceptional strike rates and a lovely healthy profit. I won’t mention them all but I’ll certainly give a positive mention to Olly Murphy who has had a terrific start to his training career in 2017.

From the above criteria, Olly has had 12 runners and 4 winners. So as the winter progresses, he is certainly someone to keep an eye on.

The trainer that stood out above everyone else though was the excellent KEITH DALGLEISH. These figures are represented as always from Jan 1st 2010.

Keith has had just 26 runners in handicaps chases/hurdles in that time on the back of 60+ days off the track, of which 13 have gone on to win with a profit of 41.26pts to BFSP. That is a 50% winning strike rate. What is just as interesting about these figures is that of the 13 that got beat, 9 of those traded at 50% or less of their BFSP in running. So there is no doubt at all that Keith has his horses bouncing and ready to roll in the national hunt season on the back of a break in handicaps. Certainly an interesting angle for all of you that like to trade pre-race or in running.

One thing I would add in to the argument is that all of the winners were priced between 6/4 and 8/1 which would suggest that they were well fancied too. If we run the system again looking at his runners that had an SP of less than 9/1, suddenly the strike rate leaps to 72.22% (83.33% win & place). A total of 13 winners from 18 runners.

So whilst it’s short and sweet this week, and won’t throw up that many selections. When Keith Dalgleish  has a runner in a handicap hurdle or chase on the back of a minimum 60 day break and is a single figure price, you should probably have it on side.

I’m open to any kind of suggestion for something to look at for next week. Feel free to post in the comments and I will take a look.

Have a top week. Thank god the international break is over!

Mark

Fire Up The Testa Rossa!

Proform

I won’t dwell on yesterday. As I’d feared the mile was just no good for Gold Return and once she missed the break she was a million. She is certainly not one to give up on and will remain on the interesting list when conditions are more suitable.

I have a couple that I must throw into the mix today. First off I’ve had my first decent go on one since I started blogging again in the form of TESTA ROSSA (7.45 Newcastle). He has improved immeasurably over the last over the last 3 or 4 months and it is almost exclusively down to the test that the all-weather track provides. I am absolutely convinced that he would have won again on Jan 21st had he not been stopped in the run not once but twice. He gets to race off the same mark of 80 in here again tonight and I see no reason why he will not win again granted a clear passage. He is actually 2lbs better off as Lewis Edmunds can claim 5lbs rather than the 3 of Downing. The drop back to 7f doesn’t worry me, there is a chance given how he has raced that it may even suit better and there should be plenty of pace on.

Clearly Safe Voyage is a sharp improver and could be a huge danger but I had them much closer together in the market than they are and at 7/1 I think he represents a decent bet. If it is your way I couldn’t put you off backing him each way as I can’t see him out the first three, but he’s a decent bet for me at the prices.

The other one I have to give a positive mention too is FLY TRUE (2.30 Lingfield). Jeremy Gask’s filly should in my opinion have won last time and I’ll be backing her to gain some compensation today. She’s a hold up horse with an excellent turn of foot. Granted round here she will need some luck, but if the gaps come she will go very close. With Mossgo and Come On Dave in here they should go a relentless clip that will bring the closers in to play. It will be hair-raising late doors but I’m convinced she’s better than her current mark.

TESTA ROSSA – 7.45 Newcastle – 3pts win @ 7/1.

FLY TRUE – 2.30 Lingfield – 1 pt win 9/2.

Be lucky today with your punting….oh and COYI

Proform

A couple for your trackers, one for today.

Proform

Morning all, as I mentioned yesterday there is nothing on the all-weather from the eye catchers running today but I did just want to make a note of a horse that is entered over hurdles at Donny and pass on one from midweek which I think is interesting going forward.

First up at Doncaster today in the 4.25 just pop POMME into your trackers. She’s an interesting horse having made her hurdles debut some 413 days ago one can only assume she’s had the odd problem but that was a debut full of promise. She made a terrible mistake at the 2nd flight and lost plenty of ground as a result. Conor O’Farrell was easy on her after that and let her do things in her own time but she made up plenty of ground and at the finish was only beaten 12 lengths. The race was won by Winter Escape who we know all about and is now rated 140 and is heading for the Betfair Hurdle. The horses around Pomme on this day have won a total of 16 races between them since. So the form has plenty of substance.

Had she not made that mistake on debut who knows how close she would have gone. We have no idea if she is match fit today so I’m not saying we should be steaming in at 25/1, but she is probably worthy of say a half point e/w bet with a look to the future. The chances are that they may take their medicine now, be quite quiet with her and hold her back for handicaps, or indeed mares races at which point she’d be real interesting.

So stick Pomme in your Proform Horse Watcher, or whichever tracker you use and watch with interest this afternoon.

The other one I wanted to give a mention too is a chaser of Tom George’s called BIG WINDMILL. He’s had the typical education, very much slowly slowly with an eye to chasing I believe. He made his chase debut in a novice handicap off a mark of 112 on Wednesday and having been nibbled most of the day he jumped the first three fences really well before seeming to slip or catch heels of the horse in front and unshipped Adrian Heskin.

He looks a big natural chasing type and I really liked the way he jumped the first three fences. Stick him again in your Proform Horse Watcher or your trackers for the coming weeks. He should pay his way in handicaps.

That’s all for today. Another 15 horses went in to the eye-catchers report yesterday, of which 6 were straight on the very interesting list!

Best of luck today!

Mark

Proform

Today’s racing blog #HorseRacing

Proform

Morning all. I hope today’s blog finds you well. Hopefully you are not a pound overweight and haven’t dispensed with your slippers in order to do todays correct weight. I have had to lose the shoes, bag, trousers, shirt, underwear and I’ve still been jocked off. Seriously what was Seb thinking? Have an actual full day off today which means you know the cricket season is coming to an end! I will be slouched on the sofa for a lot of the day watching the ODI and keeping my eye on events at New Road as we cheer Sussex to victory in the LV=County Championship. Obviously I want Sussex to stay up, but also tipped up Worcester for relegation. A win for Sussex today/tomorrow is close to a double whammy! I will also be finishing off my jumps horses to follow which I’ll be sending out soon.

I’ll kick things off with a few stats from Proform. Simon and the team are holding training seminars on the Proform software throughout the Autumn at various locations around the UK. You can find all the details on the website if you click on the Proform logo it will take you directly there.

Here are a lost of trainers that have exceptional win and place strike rates over the last 14 days:

Jed O’Keeffe 87.50%

Iain Jardine 70%

John Ferguson 68.75%

Jose Santos 66.67%

Saeed Bin Suroor 65.38%

M O’Callaghan 60%

One note of caution on those stats are that although Jed’s runners are running very well. He hasn’t had a winner but 7/8 have placed at prices ranging from 9/4 to 16/1. Three of those runners traded odds on in the run too. He has Desert Ruler entered in a couple of nurseries over the coming days who could be interesting. Iain Jardine’s horses are running well and he has Push Me entered in the 3.55 at Sedgefield today. He’s been pretty well backed but would need a career best. Still interesting to a degree.

Good card at Salisbury today but I found it hard to eek out any value anywhere. I do think that MELODIOUS is worth backing in CGA “PERSIAN PUNCH” CONDITIONS STAKES at 4.50. She gets weight off the favourite and with the step up in trip arguably going to bring about a bit of improvement, there is a case to say she could be favourite herself. Flying officer is 8/11 and she is 15/8. Well worth backing at that price.

I’m quite keen on the chances of STAR RIDER (6.45 Chelmsford) for Hughie Morrison. She loved the surface at Chelmsford when winning her maiden. She has hinted a few times on turf that she is still potentially better than her current mark and this is the weakest race she has run in this season. Back here with Charlie Bennett claiming 7lbs I think she is potentially on a really nice mark and is well worth a go. She is readily available at 5/1.

They are the two for me today. Be back tomorrow with more bits and pieces.

Be lucky

MG

Proform

Friday’s action…

Proform

Morning one and all. I hope and trust all is well and that you’ve all been smashing in winners left right and centre. After a dismal day hosting Sussex vs Essex on Wednesday in the Royal London Cup (not due to the cricket, but due to the weather) I finally managed to get back on the horse on the racing front in the last 24 hours or so. Had a good go on Tasleet in the opener at York yesterday. My main bet of the day though was on the Godolphin filly Mistrusting in the last. After her win in the four runner handicap at Newmarket last week I’d convinced myself that she was a potential group horse. I think the way she travelled through the race yesterday lead me to believe that again, it was a nervy last 100 yards but she held on well, possibly just idling in front.

I have started going through the videos, so within a few days we will have a nice big bank of eye catchers and horses to follow. Before we get on to today’s racing, just thought I should give a mention to the test match. It is a really flat pitch. A typical five day Oval pitch. The Aussies showed yesterday that if you get through those early overs, then the afternoon is normally a batters paradise. The next two days are set for very good weather, then there are storms and rain forecast for Sunday and Monday. The draw is available at 7/4 in places this morning. Providing England bat well later on today I cannot see this being anything other than a draw. I think the prices are wrong. I’ve backed the draw. If today follows a similar pattern to yesterday, then I expect the draw will be about 4/7 by the close of play. Tradetastic for all you that like to “cash out”.

I’m still coming to terms with the fact that I can’t click a race replay on RacingPost.com whilst looking at a race. The basic membership is about £14 a month now, and £26 if you include all the tipping pages. Cannot imagine that anyone is paying for that. I use the basic package but only due to the fact that all of my notes are stored on the database. Once I upgrade my office computer, I think I many well transfer all my notes onto the Proform database so that it’s all in one place. Taking the videos off the website I’m sure is a big mistake.

Found the opening race at York difficult. Plenty of possibilities, but nothing that leapt out for a bet. I don’t have a strong opinion in the Yorkshire Cup either. I wouldn’t be surprised if anyone of them won to be honest.

First bet of the day will be Richard Pankhurst in the Sky Bet City Of York Stakes at 3.05. I know he’s only had two starts and has had 426 days off since winning the Chesham last year but that was a really taking victory, one that suggested he was going to be better than listed class. He is in great hands and I’m sure he’ll be ready. He is a general 13/2 chance this morning, if that had been at this years Royal Ascot he’d be 6/4 so I think he represents value and if he is anywhere near his best; I think he’ll be really hard to beat. I will be having a small saver on Short Squeeze. He was given one of the rides of the season in a big handicap here last year by Smullen and he is back on board today. Whilst he is probably better at a mile, there is a good chance this will be frantic. Salateen, Toocoolforschool and Glory Awaits all have double figure pace figures on Proform so I’m expecting a strong gallop and this brings Short Squeeze into calculations. At 12/1 I’ll be saving on him.

On to the feature race of the day the Nunthorpe at 3.4o and I cannot get away from ACAPULCO. She ran to a topspeed figure of 110 at Ascot. Only Muthmir (111) has run anywhere near that this season. She gets a 24lb allowance from her elders here which whatever way you look at it makes her very very hard to beat. Tactics may be important. There is the smallest chance things could get to her jockey Irad Ortiz Jr, who is not guaranteed to get the best of receptions from the patriotic’s. The Nunthorpe is a race that can throw up an odd result too. All things said, I honestly could’t go against her. I hope she wins. Whether she is bankable at 2/1 or not I’ll leave up to you. She might go in a multiple.

acapulco-easton-angel_3315932

I’ll jump to the evening card at Wolverhampton for the next interest. BUSH BEAUTY (8.20) is mildly interesting in the class 6, 6 furlong handicap. Normally better over slightly longer she needs a real test at six to figure but I think we may well get that tonight as Cloak And Degas, Captain Future, Bosham and Indian Affair all like to rattle along. We have to forgive the run last time but she has never shown much on turf. Back on tapeta she is drawn in stall 2 so Rachel Richardson can just pop out and take her time. If they go stupid up front then she will be a big player when they turn for home. She comes out top on the PROFORM  ratings by some way too. She’s 10/1 in places this morning and must represent a fairly good each way bet.

At Sandown in the opener I thought KOMEDY (2.20) may be interesting. She has a piece of form (debut) that would make her particularly interesting off an opening mark of 64. Her last run in a maiden certainly smacked of “nursery type” and the yard are in much better form than earlier in the year. I’ve had a small interest on her at 7/1.

On a totally separate note, the Redskins went 2-0 in pre-season last night after beating Detroit 21-17, that unfortunately though does not tell the story. The first two quarters, the offensive line decided not to block for RG3, he got hit 7 times and sacked 3 more. He ended with a  busted shoulder and a concussion. This is clearly unacceptable and this needs to be addressed as soon as possible. We moved the ball with ease once Colt McCoy came in. It was all too similar a story to last year when RG3 was in. The pocket was collapsing with ridiculous ease. I hope there is no skulduggery going on.

For the first time I’m starting to think that it might be time to trade him as there are clearly some trust issues within the team.

Have a good day today, be lucky.

MG

Proform

It’s been a while!

Proform

Well it has certainly been a while since the last time I rambled on. The cricket season as always takes up my time in the summer. As well as my frequent visits back to my second home in Zante. Unfortunately, the knee injury I’ve been ignoring for a year has finally taken its toll and I am pretty much done. Waiting for a specialist appointment which I’m told will take 6-8 weeks. We all know the actual spread is 16-18.

My coverage of racing has taken a back seat as per usual over the main summer months. Which is probably not the best idea considering my flat racing far outweighs my jump racing analysis. Looking forward to tackling the racing again with some gusto into the back end of the season and into the all-weather (the boos from the back of the room can be heard all round).

The first thing I’ll touch on will be the beloved West Ham. Overall I have to consider the summer a slight success. Whilst a lot of know it alls will say we were mad to part company with Allerdyce, they are also the people that don’t watch us week in week out. His gusto had gone. We started last season playing much better football, attacking with gusto and going after the better teams. Whilst I knew we wouldn’t sustain our top 4 place, to drop away like we did with such timid and poor performances it was clear the time had come. There were times in his reign that Sam got things bang on. The 3-0 win at White Hart Line was a touch of managerial beauty. There were other times when we had no plan B, selected weak teams because he felt we couldn’t win the game. He also relentlessly picked Kevin Nolan, which meant we had to play 4-5-1 to accommodate his old legs, which other teams worked out and took full advantage of. Nolan is his prime was a master at reading the game and knowing where to be. Last season, he was unfortunately way off the pace. The fact no side (even championship) has shown any interest in him says all you need. He will be Big Sam’s assistant in his next job (NAP).

So we move onto the Bilic era. I think he was the right choice for now. I like his ethos and attitude towards the game and what he wants to achieve at the club. I couldn’t give two hoots about playing kids in the Europa League and an early exit. Means nothing. English teams that get in to the group stages have terrible records in the Premier League. Our sole concentration, should be on going to the Olympic Stadium next year on the back of a top ten finish and progress. A massive positive is the signing of Payet from Marseille. He looks a classy player with the ball at his feet. He can beat a man with trickery, pace and strength. His assist stats are phenomenal. Everyone saw at the Emirates last week what an asset he is going to be. Very pleased with the additions of Obiang and Ogbonna. My one criticism would be that on the back of Enner Valencia’s injury news we should have gone and got a striker straight away. Sakho is streets ahead of the others but cannot play alone all the time. Who knows if Carroll will be back, when he’ll be back and how long he’ll last.

I still think we have the basis of a good squad and I really hope that a top ten finish should be doable comfortably. There are some really very average sides in the league this year. If Sunderland don’t finish bottom I’ll be shocked. They were a disgrace on Saturday. Players walking all over the pitch. Watch Cattermole for the 2nd goal. He don’t care.

Cricket hasn’t been too enjoyable over the summer. Whilst I’m very much at the back end of my career we are playing the highest level we ever have down at Rottingdean. It shows. We are 4/5 players short of where we need to be in all honesty. Playing for a year on dodgy knee ligaments has all but done me in. For Sussex again it’s been disappointing. Thought the squad looked capable of challenging in the Championship this season but they have been poor. Managed to get to the quarter finals of the T20 Blast largely down to Luke Wright, but again a poor home performance (said that on repeat the last two years) meant defeat. Let’s just hope having Chris Jordan back for the final few games means that they can have enough fire power to leapfrog Worcester in the table and stay up.

The positive about the cricket season coming to an end means that the NFL season is just a few weeks away! 25 days to be precise. Literally cannot wait this year. I will run a blog on a season preview at some point in the coming months. Could be all change this year. The Seahawks look like they are going to try and throw the ball. The Patriots have plenty of new faces and don’t look like they’ll have Brady for the first 6 weeks (still be 5-1). The Packers look very good, as do the Colts. There are a couple of cracking bets I’ve lined up at bigger prices but I’ll touch on them another day.

With regards to the racing. I’m hearing from Proform Racing towers that a brand new feature is being prepared for the upcoming jump season called the Cheltenham Trail. It will preview up to 80 of the major races that lead to your Cheltenham Festival bets, with facts, figures, stats and trends. Looks a cracking development and I will give you more details as and when they come through to me.

Looking forward to York this week. The Juddmonte looks an absolute belter with Gleneagles taking on Golden Horn. Time Test is no back number either. Should be the race of the year so far. Very much looking forward to seeing Acapulco in the Nunthorpe. She looked an absolute beast at Ascot and gets more allowances than the cast of benefit street. She might break the track record. Gutted that for the 3rd year in a row I can’t go. Bad planning on my part. I’m hosting Sussex vs Essex on Wednesday then on Coral TV duties the rest of the week.

I must end this edition with a note to my beloved pal Bryn Jones who we tragically lost in a car crash in Zante at the weekend. So many fond memories I wouldn’t know where to start on talking about them. He was an infectious character that just made life great. He was my neighbour for a few years with his Mrs Cat, who for the record is just nothing short of a diamond. My heart goes out to her and all of their family. Bryn was 29 and a massive hammers fan. We went away together and always bumped into each other at Upton Park. We were together just a few days ago celebrating beating the Arsenal and being general boys amongst a crowd of gooners. The Zante family has shown themselves to be nothing short of remarkable in their efforts to support Bryn’s family. Saturday was a particularly tough day. Being so far away has not helped. Rest in piece pal. You know that every time I ever sing bubbles I’ll be thinking of you. Now have a word with the big man upstairs and get us in the Champions League.

Mark

Proform

Thursdays racing

Proform

Morning peeps.  One of those days today where several horses that I have been waiting for are all going and we seemed to have been found some opportunities.

We will start proceedings with TELEGRAPH (2.55 Wolverhampton) who would surely have won last time out with better luck in running. He is currently down to his last winning mark of 57 (equal lowest) and should really have picked up the prize last time out when being trapped on the inside rail and having to be pulled back by John Egan on at least two occasions. As they turned for home both he and the well backed winner went for the same gap, the winner got it and again Egan had to switch, once he regained momentum it was too late and he went down by half a length. This today is a weaker race and whilst I respect one or two who are down to basement marks, I would be disappointed if Telegraph were not good enough.

TELEGRAPH 2 pts win @ 2/1 with SKYBET (Best odds guaranteed).

I really like the chances of CABAL (4.05 Wolverhampton) to follow up his victory from last week. He won well last week when pulling clear with another notebook horse that is also well handicapped after tanking through the race. This if anything looks weaker than that contest and with only a 4lb rise to contend with it is hard to see him not winning again. There is money this morning for the top two which is good news. They are regularly backed but rarely perform and it has pushed our price right out.

CABAL –  4 pts win @ 3/1 with SportingBet. (BOG).

Another with outstanding claims today is CELESTINE ABBEY (4.35) who with slightly more luck would have gone close to winning last time with a better run. Held up last the race developed around her and she never had a chance to land a blow. That was a 0-65 and she has dropped down to 0-55 company this afternoon with the handicapper also generously dropping her another 3lbs. This puts her just a pound above her last winning mark and she should be up to taking this weak affair.

CELESTINE ABBEY 3 pts win @11/4 with Boylesports/Betway.

I feel inclined to throw a point at LITTLE CHOOSEY (6.40 Chelmsford) who we backed last time. She didn’t have the best of runs, constantly wide and giving away ground. The winner that day was ridden by Ali Rawlinson and it’s interesting he takes this ride today as he is perfect for her. If he can sit as quietly as possible on her till as late as possible then I think she’s likely to go close in a race where several of these have something to find.

LITTLE CHOOSEY 1 pt win @ 11/2 generally (BOG).

The 7.10 at Chelmsford is an interesting contest and case can be made for several of the runners. There is so much pace in here however that I felt it might be worth chancing a point on LONG AWAITED. He ran well in some better races last term and might just find several of these falling into his lap late on if he is ready to go after a break.

LONG AWAITED 1 pt win @ 7/2 generally.

I will also place Telegraph, Cabal and Celestine Abbey in a 1 pt treble. Which pays 39/1 via oddschecker.

Be Lucky

MG

Proform

Wednesdays action!

Proform

Apologies don’t have much time this morning but will quickly blast through today’s selections.

WALK LIKE A GIANT – 2.30 Chelmsford – 1 pt win @ 9/2 generally.

THIRD STRIKE/DUKE OF DUNTON 2.35 Kempton – 1 pt win each @ 10/1 @ 9/2.

WENTWORTH FALLS 3.40 Chelmsford – 3 pts win @ 15/8

RIZAL PARK 4.45 Kempton – 2 pts win @ 9/2

Be lucky

MG

Proform