Proform Power Ratings Profits? Can It Be Done?

Afternoon one and all, I hope this blog entry finds you all well after the festive season. Happy new year to everyone. In the words of John Lennon Let’s hope it’s a good one, without any fear.

So in 2017 I had a good look at various aspects of trying to win without thinking using the data we get from Proform. As mentioned many times before the DTR system put together by Proform continues to work very well. The speed figure systems that were on previous blogs also continue to perform, although they are certainly more effective on the turf than the all-weather. On the back of previous posts I got a lot of feedback and messages revolving around the issue of backing them all with bookmakers that provide best odds guaranteed, the difficulty of getting on, and if there are angles to look at for Betfair SP, thus making it much easier for people to get on. So today I thought I would have a good look at the POWER RATINGS and see if there are any smaller angles we can find simply revolving around them and how we can try to making a profit simply from using Betfair SP that can add a bit more in the way of the profit column.

So first things first let’s run the system builder and get the results of the top power rated horse in all races since January 1st 2011……

 

So as you can see, backing them blind over the course of the last 6 years would not have been a sharp route to the Bahamas. Over 2341 pts lost to BFSP over the period.  Just to get absolute clarity and a clearer picture I’ll break down those results and present them year by year….

 

So quite clearly you get a fairly consistent strike rate in and around 25% but a healthy loss to go with it to Betfair SP. So just like on previous efforts how can we now break this down to try to find an angle or two to turn those negative results in to positives? Let’s start by having a look at all of the same results but this time around I will break them down by their different race types. Maybe they are more profitable on the flat than jumps etc. Here is what we get…..

 

The first thing to obviously notice is that bumpers have a much better performance than anything else, clearly 94 points profit over the span of 6 years is not going to get the juices flowing though. That is a topic that I will almost certainly touch on in the near future as there are definitely some angles to be exploited in bumpers. Largely though, this breakdown doesn’t tell us an awful lot more. Mostly negative figures, especially on the turf, which is completely the opposite to looking at the speed figures. Before I try some other things just to get a bit more clarity, I want to run the same report again but this time I want to look at the different race classifications, just to make a mental note of any particular races that the Power Ratings are very strong in. Here is what we got…

 

Making some notes from what we get here you can see that races at the highest level seem to do pretty well. So grade 1-3 and group 1-3. That is fairly obvious, the top rated in the highest level contests tend to be the best horses in training and should produce a high strike rate. I will write a separate blog post on this area at another time as we approach the flat season. So to sum up at this stage there are no glaring angles to producing a high profit return, so it’s time to start thinking slightly out of the box. What can I change, or look at that may increase the profitability of those Power Ratings.

So what is the most common thing we hear across the world of social media when it comes to making a long-term profit from your betting? That’s right, VALUE. What happens if we look at horses that are top rated, but the market underestimates their chance? Surely this provides us with some value if the horse is top rated but the market has them at a big price? Bearing in mind that the overall loss on all the runners was -2341.60 pts, I started to run the reports in stages to see how the profit and loss reacted to gradually increasing the SP of the top rated horse. Here is what happened…..

The above represents all top rated with an SP of larger than 3/1.

This one represents all top rated with an SP of larger than 5/1. Starting to get the feeling this is going somewhere as that negative figure is getting smaller and smaller.

We move on to an SP of 8/1 and above. Only minus 62, so we are getting ever closer to a profit.

Ta da!!!!  We’ve made it to some profit. 10/1 and above.  A profit of 560.77 across the 6 years gives us an average of 93.46 pts per year. Whilst this is not a huge amount, it is another positive figure to add to the overall figures from your statistical betting. Clearly this is a system that will not suit a lot of punters. It has a very low strike rate of just under 6% and a lot of patience will be needed. Having said that, patience will provide some rewards, it only provides approximately 3 selections per day. 12th February 2011, What A Warrior won at Warwick as the top rated at a Betfair SP of 126.98.

Before I closed the book on this I wanted to have one last look, and this time taking those positive figures from above and once again having a quick look at the results through their race type just to make sure there isn’t something I’m missing.

You can see that chases have a negative impact on the results and that if you put a line through jumps racing and just ran this on the flat, all-weather and in bumpers, you would increase your profitability once again.

The big downside to this approach is that it works off SP. Clearly at 8am when we may be placing our bets, you have no idea what the SP will be, so to give it a very accurate reflection, you would need quite a hands on approach and placing your SP bets close to off time. I’m pretty sure that if you use the overnight prices as a guide and place BFSP bets on anything that is 10/1 or bigger at 8am for instance. This will still show a very similar profit level. If you have the luxury of BOG accounts, then this system again is fairly simple to operate. 93 pts a year is certainly not life changing, but when you add it to the portfolio we have already to started to build, it is more money in the profit column. I hope you have found this mildly interesting again. If you haven’t yet stumbled across Proform before, feel free to click on the image below which will take you directly to the website, where you can find all the information you need.  I will be back in the next few weeks with another piece on yet more Proform angles. Happy punting!

All the best

MG

 

 

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Wednesday 3rd Jan

Morning all. It has been an interesting few days across all sports. Well done to those of you that backed Native Robin the other day, he was so weak in the betting throughout the day, but the result was never really in any doubt. He absolutely tanked through the race and could have been called the winner a long way out. The SP of 11/1 (16 BFSP) was a decent touch for those of you with BOG.

On the NHL front, good to see Vegas and Boston continue to win and contract in price. Some of the bookmakers reacted to the bets and prices from the other day, some are still sleeping. Hills cut Boston from 33/1 into 14’s within a day or so. They were mightily impressive again last night winning 5-1 on the road in New York.

Trainers with runners today that have a win and place strike rate of above 50% in the last 10 days:

Nick Williams 75%

Warren Greatrex 72.73%

Kim Bailey 63.64%

Donald McCain 52%

Tim Easterby 50%

A couple of eye catchers worth noting going today. CRITICAL THINKING (7.10) would have gone very close to winning last time had he not got caught out off a slow pace. He’s well handicapped on his old form. Back up in trip with Cameron Noble claiming 3lbs off his back, he looks a cracking bet today at about 9/2. I have had a small saver on SANAM in the same race who could be absolutely lobbed in on his first handicap start for Ed Dunlop.

At Southwell today there are a few speculative wagers to look out for too. In the 1.10 FABELLA BERE steps up in trip. She got outpaced and plugged on last time over a mile. She is bred to like the surface and the slower tempo today might find her in the mix. She’s about 20’s on Betfair. Later on in the final race (3.40) the two complete outsiders MINING ROCKS and GONEWITHTHEWIND are both of the smallest interest. Mining Rocks has never been here before and is bred to appreciate the surface. He’s on a tumbling mark and another 7lbs is taken off by the young rider. Gonewiththewind has dropped to a career low mark, the rider takes off another 3lbs, he’s down in grade. They are 34’s and 60’s on the machine, so I’ll be having small plays at those prices with slightly better interests in the place markets.

Good luck today.

MG

Sunday 31st December Racing Notes

Evening all. Having had a good delve in to the racing on the final day of 2017, I have come across one or two that are worth throwing a couple of quid at.

First up I’ll give you some latest Proform Stats that could help with your punting today.

Trainers In Form:

Trainers with a win & pl strike rate of over 50% over the last 10 days.
Nick Williams 85.71%
Mark Johnston 80%
Michael Easterby  66.67%
T Lacey 66.67%
John Butler 60%
Robert Stephens 60 %
Kim Bailey 57.14%
Jennie Candlish  54.55%
Simon Dow 50%
C Byrnes 50%

 

NATIVE ROBIN (2.35 Warwick) caught the eye and went in the horse watcher on the back of his run at Exeter a month ago. He’s been out of sorts since his return to the track after 18 months on the side lines but at Exeter showed a bit more when getting outpaced over a trip short of his best, before running on a bit once beaten. He’s been dropped another 3lbs for that so is now 6lbs lower than his last winning mark. Add into the mix going back up in trip and a drop in grade back to a 0-105 and he looks an interesting contender. If he’s come on for those two runs he’s a decent bet.

On the opening shows he is available at 6/1 general. 2 pts win.

ADMIRAL BLAKE (3.00 UTTOX) is another well handicapped beast that should be monitored in the betting. Testing conditions are no problem for him and his run in what turned out to be a betting farce at Exeter last time should not be underestimated. Although beaten a long way he plugged on ok at a trip short of his best. Having won at the turn of the year off 75 & 82 a couple of years ago, he should be very capable back down to this basement mark. James Best takes back over in the saddle and he gets in this race off a lovely racing weight of 10 stone. Not beyond the realm of possibility that he returns to some form here.

At 16/1 (Bet365) he is definitely worth having a point each way.

Nap of the day though without doubt has to be MYSTIQUE MOON (1.45 Lingfield). The son of Shamardal has won two of his three starts so far, only losing out to another rapidly progressive Godolphin inmate last time out at Chelmsford. He’s been raised 9lbs for being beaten last time but that race is full of decent form. His successor Arabian Hope won the Ganton Stakes (Listed) at York. Native Soldier won off 75 and Ebbesbourne won off 80. Whilst plenty of these are on the way down, Mystique Moon is still on the up and can take this with a view to being back here on Good Friday.  Alfred Hutchinson is well handicapped and likes it here so should be a danger and monitor the run of Cherbourg. Out of the weights here, but may end up better than this mark at some point in the near future.

Opened at 11/4 tonight with Bet365. I’d be surprised if he was better than 6/4 at the off. 3 pts win @ 2/1 general price.

Will update any others later.

MG

 

 

 

Pomme’s time to shine & a large priced dart…

Proform

I’m looking forward to Pomme switching to a mares race ahead of the 2.50 at Carlisle tomorrow. She has shown lots of promise on all her starts so far and I’m pretty sure if you look at the figures that you can make a good case for her to be favourite in this race.

If you want more details on why I like her then you can read back through previous posts. Which One Is Which and Lastbutnotleast make this an interesting contest. The latter has a penalty to carry but has shaped like this step up in trip will suit, whilst the former is under priced on what she’s achieved.

They clearly had a choice here with Pomme of going for a similar race to last time and getting her a nice mark or going for a mares race with a big chance of a gaining a win. The way she travels should suit Carlisle and she’ll hopefully be the last off the bridle before going on to score. Bet365 have opened up at 3/1. I think she should be favourite.

Elsewhere, I do have one of the interesting horses running today in the form of CASTANEA (5.20 Kempton). Now let’s not go mad, he’s a 42 rated 18 race maiden. So let that sink in, this is not a bank job and it has health risks attached to it but I do think there is a case to be made.

I get the feeling there may have been one or two issues in 2016 as he started to look awkward. He was given a six month break on the back of his last run in July before making a very interesting return over an inadequate 8.5f at Wolverhampton on Jan 26th. Here are my Proform notes.

This is probably one to come with a health warning. An 18 race maiden that has clearly had a few issues. Throw in the fact that he’s now rated just 42 and this should not be one to go over board with but certainly of interest as we’ll get some juice in the price because of the profile.

I’d urge you to watch the replay of the run at Wolverhampton on January 26th 17, which was his first run for 6 months having previously been seen running terribly at Ffos Las and Brighton in mid summer. Now watch closely. The first thing to note is that the trip was short of what he needs, he clearly wants about 10f, so it was obviously intended as a prep run or cobweb blower. Second thing to note is watch the draw, missing the break, wide trip early, and the effort on board to actually get close….

Now I must stress that there could just be a chance that he is a rogue and that he was really well and fresh ahead of this run. There could also be a small chance that whatever was the issue previously has been sorted and he is ready to rock and roll.

His price is going to allow us some fun. He has opened up at 16/1 tonight and is a really good each way bet. The only negative might be that it may have been picked up by other race readers so he may get well backed. If he does, then he may not even try.

Before we go I must just give you the details of a horse to follow in the early part of 2017. CULLINGWORTH is the one, here are the notes…

I think he’s potentially quite nice horse to follw for 2017. Ran in quite a few conditions races early on before having a mid summer break. Most intersting run was certainly the last start of 2016 when running in a messy race at Chester 9/9/16 when a horse fell and traffic problems. The way he travelled through that race and the fact that he was hampered were both interesting considring how he finshed off. Although well beaten was doing excellent work late on. Definitely capable of achieving much more than 81 this year. The form of this race has worked out really well too.

Pomme – 2.50 Carlisle

Castanea – 5.20 Kempton. E/W.

Be lucky today.

MG

Proform

Hoping the windmill will blow away the Saturday tears!

Proform

Ahh. How annoying was yesterday. Testa Rossa got absolutely hammered late doors into 4/1 from 7’s. Unfortunately the dropping back to seven didn’t really help but in truth he was given a poor ride. Edmunds let him get squeezed out and then just sat behind the whole field. I was shouting at the screen 5 furlongs out for him to switch wide.

I don’t think enough of the jockeys watch enough of the racing. When the horses come under pressure at Newcastle on the all-weather, the majority of them tend to drift to the far side. Horses that try to weave through have a very poor record. Once he switched wide and got daylight he took off but it was too late in a really steadily run race.

I will for now consider it money borrowed. As he is still thriving and will clearly win again soon. Preferably over a mile.

Anyway on to the Sunday action and I will grace you with the first maximum bet for February. I have had the max on BIG WINDMILL (3.20 Taunton). He was one of my eye-catchers in the WeighedInRacing magazine this month. Here are my Proform Notes…..

He’s had the typical education, very much slowly slowly with an eye to chasing I believe. He made his chase debut in a novice handicap off a mark of 112 on January 25th and having been nibbled most of the day he jumped the first three fences really well before seeming to slip or catch heels of the horse in front and unshipped Adrian Heskin.

He looks a big natural chasing type and I really liked the way he jumped the first three fences. He should be followed with interest in the coming weeks..

It’s about time they started winning so fingers crossed the max lands! It should be an interesting few days as plenty of this month’s eye catchers are entered this week so things should really start to pick up!

BIG WINDMILL – 3.20 Taunton – 5pts Max bet @ 9/4 (bog).

Top result for the hammers yesterday. Seems the lads are playing with far more freedom away from home at the moment. Good result at a difficult place to go. Top half finish looks more likely each week whilst the relegation race is wide open!

So looking forward to the Superbowl tonight. Should be an absolute belter. Fingers crossed the windmill will give us plenty of ammo to have an interest!

Be lucky today!

All the best

MG

 

Proform

 

 

A couple for your trackers, one for today.

Proform

Morning all, as I mentioned yesterday there is nothing on the all-weather from the eye catchers running today but I did just want to make a note of a horse that is entered over hurdles at Donny and pass on one from midweek which I think is interesting going forward.

First up at Doncaster today in the 4.25 just pop POMME into your trackers. She’s an interesting horse having made her hurdles debut some 413 days ago one can only assume she’s had the odd problem but that was a debut full of promise. She made a terrible mistake at the 2nd flight and lost plenty of ground as a result. Conor O’Farrell was easy on her after that and let her do things in her own time but she made up plenty of ground and at the finish was only beaten 12 lengths. The race was won by Winter Escape who we know all about and is now rated 140 and is heading for the Betfair Hurdle. The horses around Pomme on this day have won a total of 16 races between them since. So the form has plenty of substance.

Had she not made that mistake on debut who knows how close she would have gone. We have no idea if she is match fit today so I’m not saying we should be steaming in at 25/1, but she is probably worthy of say a half point e/w bet with a look to the future. The chances are that they may take their medicine now, be quite quiet with her and hold her back for handicaps, or indeed mares races at which point she’d be real interesting.

So stick Pomme in your Proform Horse Watcher, or whichever tracker you use and watch with interest this afternoon.

The other one I wanted to give a mention too is a chaser of Tom George’s called BIG WINDMILL. He’s had the typical education, very much slowly slowly with an eye to chasing I believe. He made his chase debut in a novice handicap off a mark of 112 on Wednesday and having been nibbled most of the day he jumped the first three fences really well before seeming to slip or catch heels of the horse in front and unshipped Adrian Heskin.

He looks a big natural chasing type and I really liked the way he jumped the first three fences. Stick him again in your Proform Horse Watcher or your trackers for the coming weeks. He should pay his way in handicaps.

That’s all for today. Another 15 horses went in to the eye-catchers report yesterday, of which 6 were straight on the very interesting list!

Best of luck today!

Mark

Proform

A couple to keep on side this evening……

Proform

Afternoon all. A couple of lovely results yesterday with Mischief Maisy getting very well backed from 20’s into 10’s and getting a very good ride to win. That may well be the limit of her ability but we bagged it on the good day. Mister Bob drifted all day right out to 10/1 then duly did the business too so good results all round. Refulgence is finally, off the list.

Just a couple to note that are running this evening.

7.30 Newbury – Loaded – 9/1 Generally – 1pt win

I think he’s a nice horse and potentially a bit better than his opening mark of 82 suggests. At Chester last time I think he hated the undulations and looked certain to want a bit further in time. A few of these have already played their hands in handicaps where as this lad looks cherry ripe for tonight.

9.10 Newbury – Siri & Severus – 25/1 & 16/1 2x 1pt singles.

A couple to play against the field in the concluding handicap on the card. You have to be forgiving for both last runs but I’m happy to do so. Siri messed about in the stalls at Carlisle, got restless and missed the break. They went no real pace and she was always on the back foot and not persevered with. She is better than that and can prove it tonight. I’m astonished she’s 25/1, if you watch the video back from Sandown the time before she was desperately unlucky not to win what was a better race than this.

Severus hated the heavy ground over a mile at Newmarket last time and drops back to seven on fast ground this evening. He travelled up strongly to a point that day and today should suit much more. They are both rated 72 but with the allowances Siri gets 8lbs off Severus so I slightly favour her. Play them both against the field of largely exposed beasts.

Good luck

Mg

Proform

Friday’s selection at a big price

Proform

Just a couple to note today. The first of which I’m quite keen on a big price. I like the chances of Divine Call (5.45 Wolverhampton) who has been running ok in similar races without troubling the judge. Again last time out here he was only beaten 2 lengths in the end despite being last turning for home. Under both of his last two rides I scribbled “would be very interesting under Baker” and hey presto! George is riding today. He will be patient, he will probably need some luck and will certainly need a pace to run at but with Spowarticus in the field, coupled with several young riders, I think they might go a real good clip. If they do and George can time things right then he is surely overpriced off a mark that is 6lbs lower than his last winning one. There are obvious dangers but Risk N Reward has been winning at Southwell and needs a career best on a track he hasn’t sparkled at so happy to take him on. I thought ITALIAN TOM might be the main danger. He has dropped to a very dangerous mark and is probably worth monitoring. All in all Divine Call looks a real interesting each way bet at a swanky price.

DIVINE CALL – 2pts each way @ 12/1 with Bet365 & WilliamHill

The second horse I will back today is LAST SHADOW (2.30 Kempton). Won off 105 on reappearance at Uttoxeter back in November before an average effort off today’s mark on New Years Day. That was right in the middle of Jonjo’s cold snap and with the yard absolutely thriving over the last few days it is not hard to see him continue that potential promise of improvement today.

LAST SHADOW – 2 pts win @ 7/2 generally.

Of the remainder well it will be great to see WEST WIZARD back on course this afternoon. He has hinted on both occasions that he has been beat that a step up in trip might be the making of him. He is 33/1 for the Neptune this morning, that might look a very big price come 2.10 this afternoon. I hope he wins really well. Elsewhere I thought THE FRIARY was very interesting up in trip at Bangor (3.15). Whilst at Wolverhampton tonight I liked the look of TOP COP in the opener (5.15) as there is plenty of pace on there and he might just sit and pounce down in grade. Steve Rogers should win again up in trip and Cookie Ring ran better than the form suggests last time. Stepping up to seven should suit him and he is the least exposed in that race.

All in all good to have a full day’s racing back. Let’s hope George can pull all the string s later on!

Be lucky!

MG

Proform

Thursdays racing

Proform

Morning peeps.  One of those days today where several horses that I have been waiting for are all going and we seemed to have been found some opportunities.

We will start proceedings with TELEGRAPH (2.55 Wolverhampton) who would surely have won last time out with better luck in running. He is currently down to his last winning mark of 57 (equal lowest) and should really have picked up the prize last time out when being trapped on the inside rail and having to be pulled back by John Egan on at least two occasions. As they turned for home both he and the well backed winner went for the same gap, the winner got it and again Egan had to switch, once he regained momentum it was too late and he went down by half a length. This today is a weaker race and whilst I respect one or two who are down to basement marks, I would be disappointed if Telegraph were not good enough.

TELEGRAPH 2 pts win @ 2/1 with SKYBET (Best odds guaranteed).

I really like the chances of CABAL (4.05 Wolverhampton) to follow up his victory from last week. He won well last week when pulling clear with another notebook horse that is also well handicapped after tanking through the race. This if anything looks weaker than that contest and with only a 4lb rise to contend with it is hard to see him not winning again. There is money this morning for the top two which is good news. They are regularly backed but rarely perform and it has pushed our price right out.

CABAL –  4 pts win @ 3/1 with SportingBet. (BOG).

Another with outstanding claims today is CELESTINE ABBEY (4.35) who with slightly more luck would have gone close to winning last time with a better run. Held up last the race developed around her and she never had a chance to land a blow. That was a 0-65 and she has dropped down to 0-55 company this afternoon with the handicapper also generously dropping her another 3lbs. This puts her just a pound above her last winning mark and she should be up to taking this weak affair.

CELESTINE ABBEY 3 pts win @11/4 with Boylesports/Betway.

I feel inclined to throw a point at LITTLE CHOOSEY (6.40 Chelmsford) who we backed last time. She didn’t have the best of runs, constantly wide and giving away ground. The winner that day was ridden by Ali Rawlinson and it’s interesting he takes this ride today as he is perfect for her. If he can sit as quietly as possible on her till as late as possible then I think she’s likely to go close in a race where several of these have something to find.

LITTLE CHOOSEY 1 pt win @ 11/2 generally (BOG).

The 7.10 at Chelmsford is an interesting contest and case can be made for several of the runners. There is so much pace in here however that I felt it might be worth chancing a point on LONG AWAITED. He ran well in some better races last term and might just find several of these falling into his lap late on if he is ready to go after a break.

LONG AWAITED 1 pt win @ 7/2 generally.

I will also place Telegraph, Cabal and Celestine Abbey in a 1 pt treble. Which pays 39/1 via oddschecker.

Be Lucky

MG

Proform

Wednesdays action!

Proform

Apologies don’t have much time this morning but will quickly blast through today’s selections.

WALK LIKE A GIANT – 2.30 Chelmsford – 1 pt win @ 9/2 generally.

THIRD STRIKE/DUKE OF DUNTON 2.35 Kempton – 1 pt win each @ 10/1 @ 9/2.

WENTWORTH FALLS 3.40 Chelmsford – 3 pts win @ 15/8

RIZAL PARK 4.45 Kempton – 2 pts win @ 9/2

Be lucky

MG

Proform