NFL Thanksgiving Feast! Skybet running for cover!

Happy Thanksgiving!

I trust that today’s blog finds you in good form and you are looking forward to tucking into your turkey and roast spuds (cooked in goose fat of course) later with lashings of gravy and three big divisional rivalries!

Firstly lets touch on the racing. Yesterday was painful. Again I was in the “I’ve backed a winner” camp when getting on Shore Performer at 14/1 in the morning and see it get smashed into 4/1 fav. At this point you generally feel like a very smug punter who is already counting the cash. Well it doesn’t always work out that way does it? She was much too free and finished out the back. Brimestone Hill didn’t add to my elation either. He travelled like a dream, showed the world what a well handicapped horse he is, got stuck on the rail, couldn’t get out and finished on the bridle. Double bugger.

We have lost two of today’s meetings due to this beautiful english weather. Racing goes ahead at Market Rasen but I couldn’t find a single angle there at all. So I’ve gone into detail on the Kempton card in an attempt to pay for tonight’s festivities!

For what it is worth I think ESTEDAAMA (6.40) is still ahead of the handicapper and I think he will win again. Stanjames are sticking their neck out at 7/4 so that will be the target for the bullseye.

The first of my three strong fancies comes in the 4.40 in the form of MY SWEET LORD. He has taken his time to learn his trade but has actually run a bit better than his results suggest. He has been missing the break and struggling to get back on terms. This is probably the weakest race he has contested and if they go quick (which they should) I though he was of major interest tonight to get us off to a winning start.

I do really like the chances of SELKIES FRIEND (6.10) and would just about make him the best bet of the day. Henry Candy’s gelding has only had the one start to date when winning a soft ground maiden at Newmarket back in July. On the back of that he has been given an opening mark of 78 and some of the horses behind him that day have gone on to achieve better (one is rated 93). He is US bred so a switch to an artificial surface is likely to be in his favour. He also gets a 2lb weight for age allowance and sneaks in off bottom weight. Massive chance and a decent bet at 9/2.

SUGARFORMYHONEY (7.40) travelled like a dream last time and almost led them a merry dance from the front. She struggled to see out the mile that day and she could be a very well handicapped animal dropped back in trip and hopefully Charles Bishop can time it just right.

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys – 9pm

Every now and again a little golden nugget comes along when the odds compilers at all the major firms just show that they don’t know enough about the sports they are betting on. The NFL is one of those sports and tonight we have a mortgage job. Firstly the facts…..the Cowboys and Redskins have played each other six times on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys have won all six. A big factor to this stat is that Dallas have been the home team on all six occasions. This year the Cowboys are 5-5 and the Skins are 4-6. However these records do not tell the full story. The Redkins are really struggling on defense but there offense is very potent under RG3. I watched the Cowboys game against Philly two Sundays back and both teams were dire, it was painful to watch and Dallas eventually came out on top due to a couple of late turnovers. When I priced this game up I had thought the enemy would honestly go 10/11 the pair. So as you can imagine I nearly choked on my corn flakes on Tuesday when I saw SKYBET were going 13/8 Washington and 1/2 Dallas. MAJOR BALLSUP!! I told as many people as I possibly could at the time and needless to say that 13/8 didn’t last too long. They are still readily available at 6/4 which in no uncertain terms is a maximum bet of epic proportions.

Why? Well Dallas have beaten only two teams with winning records. The Giants in week one when New York were too bad to be true and Tampa who are 6-4 but are flattered by a soft schedule. Their other wins have come against Carlolina (2-8) Philly (3-7) and Cleveland (2-8). Three of the worst teams in the NFL by some way. In comparison Washington have beaten New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Philly. They have also lost in tight games to Atlanta (9-1) NYG (6-4) and Cincinatti (5-5) in games you could argue that they probably should have won.

The major outcome of this game lies with the Redksins defence as offensively the Skins will definitely out score Dallas. If the skins D steps up then that 13/8 will be bloody lovely and they actually match up really well against this Dallas team!

I have backed Washington maximum outright and have put them into a treble with Houston and New England!

It should be a cracking night’s entertainment and I hope you enjoy. A big thanks to Skybet……ooooooooosssshhh.

Be lucky today!

MG

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