Trying to find a golden nugget for the coming weeks…

Evening one and all. Hope this post finds everyone well and full of winners. An interesting week in the racing world with nothing much happening in terms of major news, other than Aidan O’Brien getting ever closer to Bobby Frankel’s record for group one winners. Enable will also stay in training at four, which is fantastic news. Longchamp anyone?

My one note from the action the past week or so would be that I’ve convinced myself that Clemmie is now the real deal. Given her pedigree she is surely going to improve for going up in trip and is very exciting. Whether she goes on to win the Guineas next spring is something we have to wait seven months to find out. One thing I’m pretty sure of though is if she doesn’t run again this season and she turns up at Newmarket in May, she’ll be 6/4 on the day, so if you like long-term investments, the 4/1 around is probably for you.

For those of you that follow my ante-post NFL prop bets it was great to see Leonard Fournette have a big weekend. Through five weeks he now has 466 yards and the each way money at 40/1 for leading rusher is definitely a live voucher. Whilst I still have him outside the top three, the way the Jag’s D keeps them in games, their run first nature can only assist in the rookie having a big first season. Let’s hope he stays healthy.

Right so this week, with little time on my hands I wanted to take a slightly different approach and just see if I could find a little nugget for the upcoming jumps season. I started off playing around with the Proform system builder and looking at the fate of favourites and horses at the front of the market to see if I could see any glaring angles.

Not an awful lot showed up, other than similarly to the flat, there are a handful of tracks where favourites have an excellent record. So I changed tack slightly and given we are at the start of the season I started to look at trainers that have their horses in good nick on the back of a break. So I ran a query in to Proform looking at all trainers performance in National Hunt races (chase, hurdle & NHF) on the back of a minimum 60 day break. This threw up plenty of profitable trainers but almost of them were on the back of the odd massive priced winner that skewed the P&L figures.

So again a bit of trimming down and I decided to limit the next search to handicaps only and now we start to pick up one or two potential angles. Five trainers stood out with exceptional strike rates and a lovely healthy profit. I won’t mention them all but I’ll certainly give a positive mention to Olly Murphy who has had a terrific start to his training career in 2017.

From the above criteria, Olly has had 12 runners and 4 winners. So as the winter progresses, he is certainly someone to keep an eye on.

The trainer that stood out above everyone else though was the excellent KEITH DALGLEISH. These figures are represented as always from Jan 1st 2010.

Keith has had just 26 runners in handicaps chases/hurdles in that time on the back of 60+ days off the track, of which 13 have gone on to win with a profit of 41.26pts to BFSP. That is a 50% winning strike rate. What is just as interesting about these figures is that of the 13 that got beat, 9 of those traded at 50% or less of their BFSP in running. So there is no doubt at all that Keith has his horses bouncing and ready to roll in the national hunt season on the back of a break in handicaps. Certainly an interesting angle for all of you that like to trade pre-race or in running.

One thing I would add in to the argument is that all of the winners were priced between 6/4 and 8/1 which would suggest that they were well fancied too. If we run the system again looking at his runners that had an SP of less than 9/1, suddenly the strike rate leaps to 72.22% (83.33% win & place). A total of 13 winners from 18 runners.

So whilst it’s short and sweet this week, and won’t throw up that many selections. When Keith Dalgleish  has a runner in a handicap hurdle or chase on the back of a minimum 60 day break and is a single figure price, you should probably have it on side.

I’m open to any kind of suggestion for something to look at for next week. Feel free to post in the comments and I will take a look.

Have a top week. Thank god the international break is over!

Mark

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Friday’s action…

Proform

Morning one and all. I hope and trust all is well and that you’ve all been smashing in winners left right and centre. After a dismal day hosting Sussex vs Essex on Wednesday in the Royal London Cup (not due to the cricket, but due to the weather) I finally managed to get back on the horse on the racing front in the last 24 hours or so. Had a good go on Tasleet in the opener at York yesterday. My main bet of the day though was on the Godolphin filly Mistrusting in the last. After her win in the four runner handicap at Newmarket last week I’d convinced myself that she was a potential group horse. I think the way she travelled through the race yesterday lead me to believe that again, it was a nervy last 100 yards but she held on well, possibly just idling in front.

I have started going through the videos, so within a few days we will have a nice big bank of eye catchers and horses to follow. Before we get on to today’s racing, just thought I should give a mention to the test match. It is a really flat pitch. A typical five day Oval pitch. The Aussies showed yesterday that if you get through those early overs, then the afternoon is normally a batters paradise. The next two days are set for very good weather, then there are storms and rain forecast for Sunday and Monday. The draw is available at 7/4 in places this morning. Providing England bat well later on today I cannot see this being anything other than a draw. I think the prices are wrong. I’ve backed the draw. If today follows a similar pattern to yesterday, then I expect the draw will be about 4/7 by the close of play. Tradetastic for all you that like to “cash out”.

I’m still coming to terms with the fact that I can’t click a race replay on RacingPost.com whilst looking at a race. The basic membership is about £14 a month now, and £26 if you include all the tipping pages. Cannot imagine that anyone is paying for that. I use the basic package but only due to the fact that all of my notes are stored on the database. Once I upgrade my office computer, I think I many well transfer all my notes onto the Proform database so that it’s all in one place. Taking the videos off the website I’m sure is a big mistake.

Found the opening race at York difficult. Plenty of possibilities, but nothing that leapt out for a bet. I don’t have a strong opinion in the Yorkshire Cup either. I wouldn’t be surprised if anyone of them won to be honest.

First bet of the day will be Richard Pankhurst in the Sky Bet City Of York Stakes at 3.05. I know he’s only had two starts and has had 426 days off since winning the Chesham last year but that was a really taking victory, one that suggested he was going to be better than listed class. He is in great hands and I’m sure he’ll be ready. He is a general 13/2 chance this morning, if that had been at this years Royal Ascot he’d be 6/4 so I think he represents value and if he is anywhere near his best; I think he’ll be really hard to beat. I will be having a small saver on Short Squeeze. He was given one of the rides of the season in a big handicap here last year by Smullen and he is back on board today. Whilst he is probably better at a mile, there is a good chance this will be frantic. Salateen, Toocoolforschool and Glory Awaits all have double figure pace figures on Proform so I’m expecting a strong gallop and this brings Short Squeeze into calculations. At 12/1 I’ll be saving on him.

On to the feature race of the day the Nunthorpe at 3.4o and I cannot get away from ACAPULCO. She ran to a topspeed figure of 110 at Ascot. Only Muthmir (111) has run anywhere near that this season. She gets a 24lb allowance from her elders here which whatever way you look at it makes her very very hard to beat. Tactics may be important. There is the smallest chance things could get to her jockey Irad Ortiz Jr, who is not guaranteed to get the best of receptions from the patriotic’s. The Nunthorpe is a race that can throw up an odd result too. All things said, I honestly could’t go against her. I hope she wins. Whether she is bankable at 2/1 or not I’ll leave up to you. She might go in a multiple.

acapulco-easton-angel_3315932

I’ll jump to the evening card at Wolverhampton for the next interest. BUSH BEAUTY (8.20) is mildly interesting in the class 6, 6 furlong handicap. Normally better over slightly longer she needs a real test at six to figure but I think we may well get that tonight as Cloak And Degas, Captain Future, Bosham and Indian Affair all like to rattle along. We have to forgive the run last time but she has never shown much on turf. Back on tapeta she is drawn in stall 2 so Rachel Richardson can just pop out and take her time. If they go stupid up front then she will be a big player when they turn for home. She comes out top on the PROFORM  ratings by some way too. She’s 10/1 in places this morning and must represent a fairly good each way bet.

At Sandown in the opener I thought KOMEDY (2.20) may be interesting. She has a piece of form (debut) that would make her particularly interesting off an opening mark of 64. Her last run in a maiden certainly smacked of “nursery type” and the yard are in much better form than earlier in the year. I’ve had a small interest on her at 7/1.

On a totally separate note, the Redskins went 2-0 in pre-season last night after beating Detroit 21-17, that unfortunately though does not tell the story. The first two quarters, the offensive line decided not to block for RG3, he got hit 7 times and sacked 3 more. He ended with a  busted shoulder and a concussion. This is clearly unacceptable and this needs to be addressed as soon as possible. We moved the ball with ease once Colt McCoy came in. It was all too similar a story to last year when RG3 was in. The pocket was collapsing with ridiculous ease. I hope there is no skulduggery going on.

For the first time I’m starting to think that it might be time to trade him as there are clearly some trust issues within the team.

Have a good day today, be lucky.

MG

Proform

It’s been a while!

Proform

Well it has certainly been a while since the last time I rambled on. The cricket season as always takes up my time in the summer. As well as my frequent visits back to my second home in Zante. Unfortunately, the knee injury I’ve been ignoring for a year has finally taken its toll and I am pretty much done. Waiting for a specialist appointment which I’m told will take 6-8 weeks. We all know the actual spread is 16-18.

My coverage of racing has taken a back seat as per usual over the main summer months. Which is probably not the best idea considering my flat racing far outweighs my jump racing analysis. Looking forward to tackling the racing again with some gusto into the back end of the season and into the all-weather (the boos from the back of the room can be heard all round).

The first thing I’ll touch on will be the beloved West Ham. Overall I have to consider the summer a slight success. Whilst a lot of know it alls will say we were mad to part company with Allerdyce, they are also the people that don’t watch us week in week out. His gusto had gone. We started last season playing much better football, attacking with gusto and going after the better teams. Whilst I knew we wouldn’t sustain our top 4 place, to drop away like we did with such timid and poor performances it was clear the time had come. There were times in his reign that Sam got things bang on. The 3-0 win at White Hart Line was a touch of managerial beauty. There were other times when we had no plan B, selected weak teams because he felt we couldn’t win the game. He also relentlessly picked Kevin Nolan, which meant we had to play 4-5-1 to accommodate his old legs, which other teams worked out and took full advantage of. Nolan is his prime was a master at reading the game and knowing where to be. Last season, he was unfortunately way off the pace. The fact no side (even championship) has shown any interest in him says all you need. He will be Big Sam’s assistant in his next job (NAP).

So we move onto the Bilic era. I think he was the right choice for now. I like his ethos and attitude towards the game and what he wants to achieve at the club. I couldn’t give two hoots about playing kids in the Europa League and an early exit. Means nothing. English teams that get in to the group stages have terrible records in the Premier League. Our sole concentration, should be on going to the Olympic Stadium next year on the back of a top ten finish and progress. A massive positive is the signing of Payet from Marseille. He looks a classy player with the ball at his feet. He can beat a man with trickery, pace and strength. His assist stats are phenomenal. Everyone saw at the Emirates last week what an asset he is going to be. Very pleased with the additions of Obiang and Ogbonna. My one criticism would be that on the back of Enner Valencia’s injury news we should have gone and got a striker straight away. Sakho is streets ahead of the others but cannot play alone all the time. Who knows if Carroll will be back, when he’ll be back and how long he’ll last.

I still think we have the basis of a good squad and I really hope that a top ten finish should be doable comfortably. There are some really very average sides in the league this year. If Sunderland don’t finish bottom I’ll be shocked. They were a disgrace on Saturday. Players walking all over the pitch. Watch Cattermole for the 2nd goal. He don’t care.

Cricket hasn’t been too enjoyable over the summer. Whilst I’m very much at the back end of my career we are playing the highest level we ever have down at Rottingdean. It shows. We are 4/5 players short of where we need to be in all honesty. Playing for a year on dodgy knee ligaments has all but done me in. For Sussex again it’s been disappointing. Thought the squad looked capable of challenging in the Championship this season but they have been poor. Managed to get to the quarter finals of the T20 Blast largely down to Luke Wright, but again a poor home performance (said that on repeat the last two years) meant defeat. Let’s just hope having Chris Jordan back for the final few games means that they can have enough fire power to leapfrog Worcester in the table and stay up.

The positive about the cricket season coming to an end means that the NFL season is just a few weeks away! 25 days to be precise. Literally cannot wait this year. I will run a blog on a season preview at some point in the coming months. Could be all change this year. The Seahawks look like they are going to try and throw the ball. The Patriots have plenty of new faces and don’t look like they’ll have Brady for the first 6 weeks (still be 5-1). The Packers look very good, as do the Colts. There are a couple of cracking bets I’ve lined up at bigger prices but I’ll touch on them another day.

With regards to the racing. I’m hearing from Proform Racing towers that a brand new feature is being prepared for the upcoming jump season called the Cheltenham Trail. It will preview up to 80 of the major races that lead to your Cheltenham Festival bets, with facts, figures, stats and trends. Looks a cracking development and I will give you more details as and when they come through to me.

Looking forward to York this week. The Juddmonte looks an absolute belter with Gleneagles taking on Golden Horn. Time Test is no back number either. Should be the race of the year so far. Very much looking forward to seeing Acapulco in the Nunthorpe. She looked an absolute beast at Ascot and gets more allowances than the cast of benefit street. She might break the track record. Gutted that for the 3rd year in a row I can’t go. Bad planning on my part. I’m hosting Sussex vs Essex on Wednesday then on Coral TV duties the rest of the week.

I must end this edition with a note to my beloved pal Bryn Jones who we tragically lost in a car crash in Zante at the weekend. So many fond memories I wouldn’t know where to start on talking about them. He was an infectious character that just made life great. He was my neighbour for a few years with his Mrs Cat, who for the record is just nothing short of a diamond. My heart goes out to her and all of their family. Bryn was 29 and a massive hammers fan. We went away together and always bumped into each other at Upton Park. We were together just a few days ago celebrating beating the Arsenal and being general boys amongst a crowd of gooners. The Zante family has shown themselves to be nothing short of remarkable in their efforts to support Bryn’s family. Saturday was a particularly tough day. Being so far away has not helped. Rest in piece pal. You know that every time I ever sing bubbles I’ll be thinking of you. Now have a word with the big man upstairs and get us in the Champions League.

Mark

Proform

Tuesday blog!

Proform

More crossbar hitting action again yesterday. Sea Tiger travelled well through the race but got locked in a pocket against the rail as they came down the hill and quickened things up. He barged through to finish fourth without having a hard race and will be of obvious interest over the coming weeks off a basement mark, it was very encouraging how much money came for him.

I’m still not quite sure how Rat Catcher didn’t win. I suspect now that he actually got to the front too soon and is going to be a horse you have to produce on the line. He traded at 1.18 in running. Still he was always going to be an each way certainty in that line up so no damage done and we go again.

We have lost the two jump meetings today so the action revolves around Southwell and Kempton. I’m on Coral TV duties today so I’ll keep it short and sweet.

I’m sure I’m not the only person that added BENNELONG to the horse watcher after his run at Lingfield four days ago. He was held up off a steady pace by his inexperienced rider and never got into the race despite never coming off the bridle. He has dropped to his last winning mark of 59 and has generally saved his best performances for Kempton so in a weak looking race he must come here with outstanding claims. He is a strong traveller that is versatile in his run style but I would exect Amir to have him close to the pace in here.

BENNELONG 3.15 Kempton Park- 2.5 pts win @ 7/2 generally (best odds guaranteed)

I’m sure we have a great opportunity to back ARTIST CRY (4.40 Southwell) this afternoon to get off the mark for Richard Fahey. Progressed with each of three runs in maidens and was actually unlucky not to go close last time after some trouble in running and being well backed. Have the feeling a mark of 60 probably underestimates him and I would be disappointed if he was not good enough to win this.

ARTIST CRY – 4.40 SOUTHWELL – 4pts win @ 9/4 (William Hill – Best odds guaranteed)

Be lucky today

MG

Proform

Big Saturday blog

Proform

Morning everyone. Another really pleasing day yesterday bagged us two nice winners at Lingfield. Disappointed with the run of SYNAESSTHESIA at Wolverhampton but she is a project to keep an eye on. The market was incredibly negative about her late doors and the horse that was heavily backed most of the day won easily. As expected they didn’t go much of a pace and I think they might have got the tactics wrong on her. Still a nice 12.75pts profit on the day cannot be grumbled at.

We will start with what I consider to be the bet of the day for me in the form of FESTIVE AFFAIR (1.50 Sandown). A frustrating type really for Jonjo O’Neill who has been given some time off after a disappointing return to action at Cheltenham in November (where he was very well backed). His mark of 132 really does look very workable on his beating of Dark Lover last year. I am assuming they were not keen to run him during the yards cold spell and he looks to me to be a type that could thrive in the spring and towards the festival. Very keen on his chances this afternoon and wouldn’t at all be surprised if he was very well backed.

FESTIVE AFFAIR 3 pts win @ 5/1.

2.05 Ffos LasBetway Welsh Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap)

A really competitive affair. The first two winners of this race (Medinas & Saphir Du Rheu) have both proved to be very smart animals but I’m not sure there is anything of that class lurking in here. I put a line through at least half this field with comfort though and I think there are two worth backing. First up, top weight SILSOL. Let’s forgive the latest run at Cheltenham behind Rock On Ruby and concentrate on his handicap exploits of which his form reads 2111. Up another 7lb for winning at Newbury off 144, he was going away at the end there and I don’t think the extra 7lb would have stopped him that day. Jack Sherwood gets on very well with him with two wins from three rides and I think he has been slightly underestimated in the market and therefore should be backed.

The other one that interests me is AWAYWITHTHEGREYS for Peter Bowen and Jamie Moore. I think he likes this type of flat track and he ran well in the race last year which was a stronger race than today. The blinkers go on and I think he might just be overpriced.

SILSOL – 1 pt win @ 10/1 generally

AWAYWITHTHEGREYS 1 pt win @ 16/1 generally

2.40 Ffos Las – Betway West Wales National

Really keen on the chances today of GLOBAL POWER. Oliver Sherwood’s gelding hasn’t had much racing over the last couple of seasons but he has given the impression on several occasions that a step up to extreme trips could bring about plenty of improvement. I think he is an out-and-out stayer and the conditions of today’s race will play into his hands. A really solid bet.

GLOBAL POWER – 2.5pts win @ 11/2.

WEST LEAKE (4.05 Lingfield) hasn’t won for two years but seems to be in the perfect race for me today. He’s a hold up horse who would like to be on the bridle as long as possible and with Bertie Blu Boy in the field they are certain to go a crazy gallop. With one or two of these keen to chase the pace he could well just have everything set up absolutely perfectly. I struggle to see him not being in the first three and if all goes perfectly thee race may just fall into his lap. Last win came off 58 so is on a nice mark and should at the very least go close.

WEST LEAKE 2pts each way @ 6/1.

Now strangely for me too there are also a few in today that I like at short prices. So what I am going to do as it is the last day of the month is put a couple of them in a one point treble.  I won’t go in to too much detail but they are as follows:

KASHTAREE 1.00 Weth

SAMPLE 1.10 Ling

BRISTOL DE MAI 1.15 Sandown

This treble pays 22/1 with Sportingbet and I’ve thrown 1pt at it.

So a really busy Saturday with 12.5 pts at Stake. Confident of a decent day.

Enjoy a cracking day and be lucky!

MG

Proform

The 2015 Challenge & Saturday blog!

Proform

Morning all. Managed to witness Cambridge parking several double deckers in order to secure a 4th round replay at Old Trafford last night. Not the most riveting viewing for the neutral but a scoreline which means that Cambridge United’s financial future is pretty secure. Very much looking forward to our trip to Bristol City on Sunday, although far from impressed by the away allocation due to ground building works.

A couple of you have mentioned about me doing some sort of challenge on the racing front this year in order to keep the blog regular (sorry again), so I have come up with something to keep us all entertained whilst hopefully making you a few quid at the same time. So the challenge is set. The UK’s average salary in 2014 was £26,500. So, can we make the average UK salary in just under a year from backing horses? This is the challenge for the next 11.5 months and is set out below:

I will put up my daily selections on the blog and each horse will be backed on a points system from 1-5 pts depending on the strength of the bet. For the purposes of the challenge, we will bet at £100 a point. This means that on average in need to make 22.5 points profit per month. A sum I am confident we can nail. Keep an eye on the staking, sometimes there will be two against the field which for me is still a very profitable angle in certain races.

Now for the purposes of added incentive maybe if one of our friendly bookmaker representatives or indeed a few of them would like to take on the challenge, maybe we could agree to pay the profits at the end of the year to a few charities? The Injured Jockeys Fund, Racing Welfare & Heros? Maybe a few of you would like to offer even £1 a point or similar for the final points total in December? If anybody outside the bookmaking teams would like to donate then please do feel free to get in contact. My twitter is @markagrantham.

Please feel free to share this with anyone that maybe interested in the head to head and we will see if we can make some money for charity at the same time.

So there really is no time like the present…… let’s get this started!

A superb days racing today with trials day at Cheltenham plus Skybet Chase day at Doncaster. Most of my attention betting wise though will be centered around Lingfield.

First off in the 1.25 we have two interesting runners to concentrate on. Firstly SASKIA’S DREAM went into many notebooks at Chelmsford on the opening day when she stuck to the far rail when most of the winners that day had come up the middle of the track. The negative is she doesn’t win very often but having said that her last win came off 61 and she’s in here off 57 so from a handicapping point of view there is a lot to like. She’s only got 8-13 to carry off bottom weight and is of major interest. The other one in the race that is really interesting is HUMOUR. Looked all over the winner at Wolverhampton last time and traded very short in the run before getting collared on the line by an in-form rival. This drop back to sprinting might just be ideal and should be backed.

SASKIA’S DREAM 1 pt win  @ 11/1 generally, Humour 1 pt win @ 12/1 generally.

Jump to the last race of the day (4.20 Lingfield) and I’m keen on the chances of KODIAC LADY. She hinted on handicap debut last time that a mark of 60 is going to be well within her compass. There is not a load of pace in the race today with several stalkers that will be held up. With Luke Morris up I expect him to just sit in behind the pace and look to make good use of her off the bend. She looks to be overpriced to me at around 8/1.

KODIAC LADY 1 pt each way @ 8/1.

A cracking days racing at Cheltenham today but I failed to feel overly strongly about anything. Really looking forward to seeing Peace and Co again. I know he ran big on all the figures at Doncaster but the thing that lit my fire the most was his hurdling. It was electric. He reminded me of a young Harchibald on how slick he was from one side to the other. I hope he wins really well today.

Enjoy,

All the best

MG

Proform

Saturday Blog: Cambridgeshire Day!

Proform

Eye Catchers Coming Soon

Apologies for the shorter nature of today’s blog. I’m on wedding duty so time is tight!

The Cambridgeshire looks a typically difficult puzzle to solve. I have to air on the side of boring and say that I do really like the chances of the morning favourite CORNROW. With the prep run over seven furlongs last time being on the short side of what he wants, I think this has probably been the plan all along. I can see him running a very big race and in a race where you can get six or even seven places with some special offers he is a must back each way.

2 pts e/w with SKYBET @ 13/2 paying 6 places

INSTANT ATTRACTION 8.30 Wolverhampton

He has been on the watch list since his reappearance back in April and won well for me last time out when appreciating the switch to this surface. Only a 5lb rise today and I think there is every reason to believe there could be plenty more to come. He is the best bet of the day for me.

2 pts win @ 11/2 generally.

SURETY – 2.30 Chester

A strong traveller who has not quite been getting home over a mile recently and I have been hoping for a drop back in trip. Gets it today and is well drawn in stall four off bottom weight. I think he is really interesting!

1 pt each way at 12/1.

Again apologies for the short nature of today. Off to see Biggs tie the knot whilst trying to listen to the game at Old Trafford! COYI

All the best

MG

Proform

Friday’s Blog: Der Meister Strikes!

Proform

Eye Catchers Coming Soon

First and foremost I must kick off today’s blog with a thanks for all the kind messages about yesterday’s results. With Der Meister’s win at 12/1 it was a decent winning day all round but was very nearly much better! Prince Gagarin ran well off a slow pace but could only manage 2nd and after being absolutely smashed up in the betting into 9/4, Thunder Pass also ran well just failing to land the spoils. It seems that plenty of you put them into each way doubles and a treble because of the prices and had a lovely return. I think the place element of the treble paid about 17/1. A special note to Peter Nawab for his donation. The closer Thunder Pass’s race came around the more confident I became. He will come on a bundle for that run you would imagine and in hindsight when you delve into his pedigree, a mile and a half on the turf will probably suit slightly better. Let’s hope the handicapper is not too harsh on him for finishing 2nd.

A really busy day today and plenty of action to get your teeth into and a really quality card at Newmarket. There is very little in the way of value on offer in the feature races. I am very much looking forward to seeing LUCIDA on our shores for the first time in the Rockfel at 2.40. She in the space of a month has very quickly made up into a smart filly. Today’s test is likely to bring about plenty of improvement in her and I struggle to see her getting beat today. Whilst I am not into putting up short priced favourites, I simply could not put you off putting her into your bets today.

Ok in the search of a bit of value today I have managed to find one in the most difficult race of that day that I do actually believe is largely over priced. We are searching for the Friday night crown jewels in the form of COINCIDENTLY in the Silver Cambridgeshire (5.00 Newmarket). She has been in the notebook for a while as a potential improver and duly dotted up off  a mark of 73 at Epsom four starts ago. She then ran poorly on her next start but that was just 48 hours later. She was back to form off her revised mark at Ayr three weeks later and ran a blinder to be second. Again she tried to back that up 48 hours later when traveling very strongly and getting no run whatsoever and Franny Norton gave up some way out and she effectively finished on the bridle. This shows she is still in rude health and also gives me belief that she is very capable of this career high mark. Granted, there are plenty of potential improvers in this field and the younger three-year olds have an outstanding record in the race so she has a task on but let’s look at the positives. Firstly she is a 33/1 shot this morning. She will be much bigger and largely ignored on the exchanges. Her three career wins have come in August, September and October suggesting she is an Autumn filly. Silvestre De Sousa has ridden her just twice and has won on her twice. I am obviously wary of the younger brigade but taking single figure prices in this type of race is the fast way to the poor house. In true Pricewise style I am going for the out of the park home run. I think she will out run those odds considerably and probably should be about 12/1.

1 pt each way at 33/1. Make sure you shop around for prices as some firms are paying five places.

The second one I want to have a good go on today is WILDE INSPIRATION (4.10 Haydock). The lightly raced son of Dandy Man has been ultra consistent this season and still has plenty of scope for improvement having only had nine career starts to date. The main reason for him being a selection today though is down to the step up in trip. Three times on my race notes I have mentioned that he could benefit from a step up in trip and today he gets a mile for the first time. Paul Mulrennan has a good rapport with him and he also has the weight for age allowance. I really respect the chances of the rejuvenated Pearl Nation who has improved enormously for the switch to Mick Appleby but I am confident that Wilde Inspiration will run a big race.

2 pts each way at 8/1 generally.

The two above are the main two interests of the day for me really but I do have a couple of others to throw into the mix. The first of these is PENGLAI PAVILION (3.45 Newmarket) who has had a poor season so far but on his best form, including a staying on fifth in last years Arc, he would win this comfortably. He has been given a break and gelded since his last run and if that has had a positive effect he might go very close to winning this afternoon.

1 pt win @ 9/1 generally

GREEK SPIRIT (6.20 Wolverhampon) has been largely out of sorts recently but just caught the eye last time. She is lightly raced and judged on her win off 6lbs lower last year this mark is workable. A very small interest at big prices.

0.5 pt win @ 18/1 generally

GHOSTING (9.20 Wolverhampton) is slowly slipping from an opening mark of 74 and did well to come from off the pace in an slowly run affair behind a Godolphin improver. This should be run to suit and although there are a few potential lurkers I am more than willing to have a stab at the morning price of 6/1.

1 pt win @ 6/1 generally.

A really busy day then and some quality stuff. Coral TV this morning with an avid eye on the golf. What an atmosphere at Gleneagles this morning!

Cheer home some winners!

All the best

MG

@markagrantham

Proform

Thursdays Blog!

Proform

Apologies for the lack of bloggage over the last few days. My schedule at this time of year is hectic and I simply haven’t had the time! I am actually writing this on Wednesday night just before I hit the sack as I have such a busy day again tomorrow!

I will be up bright and early as I am off to Jamie Poulton’s yard down in Sussex to see our new colt that we have taken a healthy share in. He is by Sakhee and will be hopefully be making his racecourse debut in a couple of weeks time!

Last week was quite tough. We hit the crossbar several times and had plenty that ranpoorly. I suppose on the back of such a good run that was always likely to be the case. I liked two quite strongly today (weds) and they both won well. I didn’t have the time to write about them in the morning but those of you that tuned into Timeform Radio would have heard how strongly I liked them! Monel would surprisingly easily and he is also entered on Thursday. He will  be no sort of price now and the cat is out the bag.

There is a distinct lack of trainers being flagged up on the win and place strike rate hot list from Proform. They are as follows:

Amanda Perrett 66.67%

John Gosden 54.05%

Malcom Jefferson 50%

Highie Morrison 50%

I have always set the bar with this stat at a minimum of 8 or 10 runners in the previous 14 days. This largely ignores smaller yards that can be in form so I have run this separately of one or two trainers have caught my eye this week:

Ron Hodges 75% (4runners)

John Davies 66.67% (3 runners)

Lydia Richards 66.67% (3 runners)

Seamus Durack 66.67% (6 runners)

Ed De Giles 66.67% (3 runners)

Chris Down 66.67% (6 runners)

John Bridger 60%

I hope in one way or another these figures point you in the direction of a winner or two! If you haven’t had a chance to check out Proform yet then you must do so. It is an essential part of any professionals day to day punting now and you will see why once you scratch the surface. Click on the image at the top of the blog and it will link you directly to the website. Simon will be happy to answer any questions that you may have.

Ok on to today and a few that I actaully fancy quite strongly.

First up is BALLYBOUGH GORTA (4.50 Wetherby) who has been most progressive over the last few seasons when given good ground or faster and has climbed a good 56lbs in the weights as a result. Over the winter he has been highly tried in decent races (Sussex and Scottish Nationals) mostly in bad ground which he would have hated. Back on a decent surface today in the weakest race he has run in for a long time (down to class 3) he must have a great chance with the Bowen/Moore combination also firing on all cylinders recently. There are some double figure prices floating about tonight so he should be backed provided there is not too much overnight rain!

BALLYBOUGH GORTA 2 pts win @ 10/1

The first of my two very strong fancies is RUSSIAN REALM (3.50 Goodwood) who looks a pattern performer waiting to happen. He was beaten at Ascot on his re-appearance by the horse we backed that day (Ishikawa) and has been raised 3lbs for the privilege of being beaten. He travelled like the best horse in the race for a long way and if you could give Ryan the ride back again he might not have given the winner so much rope. The drop back a furlong should work the oracle here and I expect Ryan to be extra clinical here today on this beautifully bred colt.

RUSSIAN REALM 4 pts win @ 2/1 (BOG)

The other one on the day is PERFECT MUSE (5.35 Goodwood) who looks a really well handicapped filly to me. Adam Kirby had to get after her a bit earlier than he wanted on her re-appearance at Bath (when she was heavily punted) and she hit the front a bit earlier than I believe he wanted too and got swamped on the line when he thought he had the race in the bag. The extra furlong here should help her travel into the race kindly and if Ryan Tate times it well I fully expect her to win.

PERFECT MUSE 4 pts win @ 15/8 (BOG)

Neither of the two are big prices but I expect them all to run well so for extra interest we will play the following multiples too:

Russian Realm/Perfect Muse 2 pts win double

Russian Realm/Perfect Muse/Ballybough Borta 1 pt win trixie (4 pts)

I hope you all have a lovely day! And lets bag some winners!

All the best

MG

Proform

Who wants to be a millionaire?

Proform

Morning peeps. Very best of luck to you if you are having a go at the massive Scoop 6 today. At first glance I thought it wouldn’t be won. Then I thought about putting a syndicate together to have a real crack, then I thought it wouldn’t be won again. My first effort at a perm came to over £2,500 so I banged my head against the desk, trimmed it right down and put up a small play. If I’ve narrowed down all six winners, this may be the last time you read this blog!

I must give a huge shout to all the team at Sussex County Cricket Club. An enthralling finish to the first of the Natwest T20 blast games against Surrey last night saw the Sharks get 17 off the last over including 8 off the last two balls to secure victory. The place went mad and the shark tank was overflowing!

Such a busy day’s racing today, let’s look at some of the Proform stats for today.

These are trainer’s win& place strike rates with more than 10 runners over the past 14 days:

P J Prendergast 69.23% (13 runners)

Robert Cowell 64.71% (17 runners)

Amanda Perrett 57.14% (14 runners)

Warren Greatrex 54.55% (11 runners)

Dan Skelton 54.55% (11 runners)

David Pipe 54.17% (24 runners)

John Gosden 53.85% (39 runners)

Best winning strike rates go to David Pipe 37.5% and Warren Greatrex 36.36%

Such a difficult day today. Every race of the scoop 6 looks difficult. We do have one or two runners from the interesting list.

You are all well aware of me feelings about STOMP (3.30 Newmarket) who won really well for us just over a week ago on an epic afternoon. He is incredibly progressive and beat another very well handicapped rival last time so the 8lb rise is not too harsh and Joey Haynes claims 5lbs of that back. He can emulate his half-sister Mince on route to pattern company here.

STOMP 3 pts win @ 3/1

You would have seen me tweeting after AEOLUS (2.55 Newmarket) got beat last time in the Free Handicap after meeting trouble in running. His form at the back end of last year took a huge boost when Night Of Thunder won the Guineas and he looks a class act to me. If he’s come on for the run last time I would hope that he might be too good for these today.

AEOLUS 3 pts win @ 4/1

I am really looking forward to seeing TOKEN OF LOVE (5.00 Newbury) again this afternoon. She is a beautifully bred daughter of Cape Cross who was pretty green on debut but still managed to win with plenty in hand. She starts life in handicap company today off an opening mark of 77. She has a group 1 entry in the Coronation so she is clearly thought a lot off which means her opening mark today looks very attractive indeed. The 5/2 about her this morning looks very tempting!

TOKEN OF LOVE 4 pts win @ 5/2.

I have a couple to throw out the back of the hand at big prices for you today too. First up is GO GO GREEN (3.25 Thirsk) who I have had to put into my scoop 6 perm despite being 2lbs out of the handicap. He has won off much higher marks in the past so that is no worry and he has shaped like his turn is coming the last twice. He might be better at six furlongs these days but the nature of this race means they are going to go a frantic pace which should suit off bottom weight. Just a small dart at a big one.

GO GO GREEN 1 pts each way @ 25/1 with William Hill

The other big priced arrow to throw later on is PIXIE CUT (5.25 Doncaster). You should all remember my thoughts on her as she ran in the Sirvino race at Hamilton. I am sure she is well handicapped at the moment off 70. This is a weaker race than that and I would actually fancy her quite strong but for the fact that she is really badly drawn in 19. Hopefully the excellent Rob Fitz who is claiming 5lbs can just get her into an ok slot and she might well run a big race at 12/1.

PIXIE CUT 1 pt each way @ 12/1

Given the nature of the prices today I have played a couple of small multiples too.

STOMP, AEOLUS and TOKEN OF LOVE in a treble & trixie.

GO GO GREEN & PIXIE CUT each way double.

Enjoy the action today, really is something for everyone withe the FA CUP final clashing with the La Liga final games! Good luck to Chris and Martin at Wembley!

All the best,

MG

Proform