Proform Power Ratings Profits? Can It Be Done?

Afternoon one and all, I hope this blog entry finds you all well after the festive season. Happy new year to everyone. In the words of John Lennon Let’s hope it’s a good one, without any fear.

So in 2017 I had a good look at various aspects of trying to win without thinking using the data we get from Proform. As mentioned many times before the DTR system put together by Proform continues to work very well. The speed figure systems that were on previous blogs also continue to perform, although they are certainly more effective on the turf than the all-weather. On the back of previous posts I got a lot of feedback and messages revolving around the issue of backing them all with bookmakers that provide best odds guaranteed, the difficulty of getting on, and if there are angles to look at for Betfair SP, thus making it much easier for people to get on. So today I thought I would have a good look at the POWER RATINGS and see if there are any smaller angles we can find simply revolving around them and how we can try to making a profit simply from using Betfair SP that can add a bit more in the way of the profit column.

So first things first let’s run the system builder and get the results of the top power rated horse in all races since January 1st 2011……

 

So as you can see, backing them blind over the course of the last 6 years would not have been a sharp route to the Bahamas. Over 2341 pts lost to BFSP over the period.  Just to get absolute clarity and a clearer picture I’ll break down those results and present them year by year….

 

So quite clearly you get a fairly consistent strike rate in and around 25% but a healthy loss to go with it to Betfair SP. So just like on previous efforts how can we now break this down to try to find an angle or two to turn those negative results in to positives? Let’s start by having a look at all of the same results but this time around I will break them down by their different race types. Maybe they are more profitable on the flat than jumps etc. Here is what we get…..

 

The first thing to obviously notice is that bumpers have a much better performance than anything else, clearly 94 points profit over the span of 6 years is not going to get the juices flowing though. That is a topic that I will almost certainly touch on in the near future as there are definitely some angles to be exploited in bumpers. Largely though, this breakdown doesn’t tell us an awful lot more. Mostly negative figures, especially on the turf, which is completely the opposite to looking at the speed figures. Before I try some other things just to get a bit more clarity, I want to run the same report again but this time I want to look at the different race classifications, just to make a mental note of any particular races that the Power Ratings are very strong in. Here is what we got…

 

Making some notes from what we get here you can see that races at the highest level seem to do pretty well. So grade 1-3 and group 1-3. That is fairly obvious, the top rated in the highest level contests tend to be the best horses in training and should produce a high strike rate. I will write a separate blog post on this area at another time as we approach the flat season. So to sum up at this stage there are no glaring angles to producing a high profit return, so it’s time to start thinking slightly out of the box. What can I change, or look at that may increase the profitability of those Power Ratings.

So what is the most common thing we hear across the world of social media when it comes to making a long-term profit from your betting? That’s right, VALUE. What happens if we look at horses that are top rated, but the market underestimates their chance? Surely this provides us with some value if the horse is top rated but the market has them at a big price? Bearing in mind that the overall loss on all the runners was -2341.60 pts, I started to run the reports in stages to see how the profit and loss reacted to gradually increasing the SP of the top rated horse. Here is what happened…..

The above represents all top rated with an SP of larger than 3/1.

This one represents all top rated with an SP of larger than 5/1. Starting to get the feeling this is going somewhere as that negative figure is getting smaller and smaller.

We move on to an SP of 8/1 and above. Only minus 62, so we are getting ever closer to a profit.

Ta da!!!!  We’ve made it to some profit. 10/1 and above.  A profit of 560.77 across the 6 years gives us an average of 93.46 pts per year. Whilst this is not a huge amount, it is another positive figure to add to the overall figures from your statistical betting. Clearly this is a system that will not suit a lot of punters. It has a very low strike rate of just under 6% and a lot of patience will be needed. Having said that, patience will provide some rewards, it only provides approximately 3 selections per day. 12th February 2011, What A Warrior won at Warwick as the top rated at a Betfair SP of 126.98.

Before I closed the book on this I wanted to have one last look, and this time taking those positive figures from above and once again having a quick look at the results through their race type just to make sure there isn’t something I’m missing.

You can see that chases have a negative impact on the results and that if you put a line through jumps racing and just ran this on the flat, all-weather and in bumpers, you would increase your profitability once again.

The big downside to this approach is that it works off SP. Clearly at 8am when we may be placing our bets, you have no idea what the SP will be, so to give it a very accurate reflection, you would need quite a hands on approach and placing your SP bets close to off time. I’m pretty sure that if you use the overnight prices as a guide and place BFSP bets on anything that is 10/1 or bigger at 8am for instance. This will still show a very similar profit level. If you have the luxury of BOG accounts, then this system again is fairly simple to operate. 93 pts a year is certainly not life changing, but when you add it to the portfolio we have already to started to build, it is more money in the profit column. I hope you have found this mildly interesting again. If you haven’t yet stumbled across Proform before, feel free to click on the image below which will take you directly to the website, where you can find all the information you need.  I will be back in the next few weeks with another piece on yet more Proform angles. Happy punting!

All the best

MG

 

 

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Wednesday 3rd Jan

Morning all. It has been an interesting few days across all sports. Well done to those of you that backed Native Robin the other day, he was so weak in the betting throughout the day, but the result was never really in any doubt. He absolutely tanked through the race and could have been called the winner a long way out. The SP of 11/1 (16 BFSP) was a decent touch for those of you with BOG.

On the NHL front, good to see Vegas and Boston continue to win and contract in price. Some of the bookmakers reacted to the bets and prices from the other day, some are still sleeping. Hills cut Boston from 33/1 into 14’s within a day or so. They were mightily impressive again last night winning 5-1 on the road in New York.

Trainers with runners today that have a win and place strike rate of above 50% in the last 10 days:

Nick Williams 75%

Warren Greatrex 72.73%

Kim Bailey 63.64%

Donald McCain 52%

Tim Easterby 50%

A couple of eye catchers worth noting going today. CRITICAL THINKING (7.10) would have gone very close to winning last time had he not got caught out off a slow pace. He’s well handicapped on his old form. Back up in trip with Cameron Noble claiming 3lbs off his back, he looks a cracking bet today at about 9/2. I have had a small saver on SANAM in the same race who could be absolutely lobbed in on his first handicap start for Ed Dunlop.

At Southwell today there are a few speculative wagers to look out for too. In the 1.10 FABELLA BERE steps up in trip. She got outpaced and plugged on last time over a mile. She is bred to like the surface and the slower tempo today might find her in the mix. She’s about 20’s on Betfair. Later on in the final race (3.40) the two complete outsiders MINING ROCKS and GONEWITHTHEWIND are both of the smallest interest. Mining Rocks has never been here before and is bred to appreciate the surface. He’s on a tumbling mark and another 7lbs is taken off by the young rider. Gonewiththewind has dropped to a career low mark, the rider takes off another 3lbs, he’s down in grade. They are 34’s and 60’s on the machine, so I’ll be having small plays at those prices with slightly better interests in the place markets.

Good luck today.

MG

A look at the Stanley Cup (NHL) mid season markets……

Seasons greetings and all. I trust you have had a wonderful festive period and you are looking forward to the new gym membership in the new year! With racing at its quietest point of the year for me personally I have taken the last day or so to go through the markets in the other sports that I have a long-term interest in. The turn of the year is always a decent time to look at the NHL as we are pretty much at the mid-season point and there are always a few ricks from the books as they are fairly lazy about the prices as they really don’t see much long-term money for them. I have managed to find a few that are of definite interest and hopefully you can get a few shillings on before they cut them.

I will apologise in advance for the first one as I’m not sure how much you will really be able to get on but the biggest mistake in the outright market is for the VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS who are currently 33/1 with 188Bet. They are also the wrong price to win their division but I’ll get to that in a moment.

A brand new franchise this year, they recruited very well. Shot data is excellent and they have been imperious at home. The Golden Knights currently have the 2nd best record in the league, lead the Western Conference and therefore should not be anywhere near 33/1. They are generally around a 16/1 chance which is more in line with their actual price (although I think that is still on the high side). As I said, I don’t what you will get on but the 33/1 should be taken before it disappears. Please have some on for me too whilst you’re at it!!

The Vegas lads should also be backed to win their division with Coral/Ladbrokes at 7/2. I struggle to see both Anaheim and San Jose making up the ground on LA and Vegas. I have it as a two runner affair, therefore the 7/2 looks a good bet as in reality they should be around 2/1.

Second error on the outright market are the vastly improved NEW JERSEY DEVILS. Second in the Eastern Conference and with a 22-9-5 record, the Devils are starting to roll. Most firms have wised to it but 888 sport and Unibet are both 30/1. That is too big for a team of their quality.

HOT TEAMS

Teams improving at a rate of knots are always dangerous when it comes to the back-end of the season and there are two to keep an eye on. The Washington Capitals are post season regulars and have looked much better over the last month or so. They are 16/1 with Boylesports in the outright market and that is another price to be interested in. They are 7/2 to win the Metropolitan Division and I’d be looking to get heavily involved in that price if it wasn’t for the Devils being in there too (5/1). Split stakes on the two would not be your worst bet of 2017.

The other one, and this is not biased in any way is the Boston Bruins. The B’s are hot going 8-1-1 in their last ten and seem to have finally shaken the TD Garden voodoo with a much better home record this year. Boston’s youngsters have added some real depth and whilst they cannot catch Tampa for the division, William Hill’s view that they are a 33/1 shot to go all the way is wrong.

Finally I’ll finish with my main bet, and that is the NASHVILLE PREDATORS to win the Central Division at 2/1 with Bet365. I won’t go in-depth other than to say I think they are the best team in that division and having played fewer games than the chasing pack, I think they are going to be very hard to knock off the top. They are about a 5/4 shot so the 2/1 is a nice price.

Outright:

Vegas Golden Knights (*what you can at 33/1)

New Jersey Devils – 1pt @ 30/1

Washington Capitals – 2pts @ 16/1

Boston Bruins – 1 pt @33/1

Whilst this is 3/1 Eastern Conference heavy, you could add Nashville if you wanted to be evenly split.

Divisions:

Vegas (Pacific) – 2pts @ 7/2

Washington/NJ (Metropolitan) 2 pts Wash @ 7/2 (Lads/Coral) 1 pt NJ @ 5/1 general.

Nashville (Central) 5 pts win @ 2/1.

15 pts outlay.

Hopefully these will give you plenty of fun across the remainder of the season, and more importantly some decent profit.

All the best

MG

 

Pomme’s time to shine & a large priced dart…

Proform

I’m looking forward to Pomme switching to a mares race ahead of the 2.50 at Carlisle tomorrow. She has shown lots of promise on all her starts so far and I’m pretty sure if you look at the figures that you can make a good case for her to be favourite in this race.

If you want more details on why I like her then you can read back through previous posts. Which One Is Which and Lastbutnotleast make this an interesting contest. The latter has a penalty to carry but has shaped like this step up in trip will suit, whilst the former is under priced on what she’s achieved.

They clearly had a choice here with Pomme of going for a similar race to last time and getting her a nice mark or going for a mares race with a big chance of a gaining a win. The way she travels should suit Carlisle and she’ll hopefully be the last off the bridle before going on to score. Bet365 have opened up at 3/1. I think she should be favourite.

Elsewhere, I do have one of the interesting horses running today in the form of CASTANEA (5.20 Kempton). Now let’s not go mad, he’s a 42 rated 18 race maiden. So let that sink in, this is not a bank job and it has health risks attached to it but I do think there is a case to be made.

I get the feeling there may have been one or two issues in 2016 as he started to look awkward. He was given a six month break on the back of his last run in July before making a very interesting return over an inadequate 8.5f at Wolverhampton on Jan 26th. Here are my Proform notes.

This is probably one to come with a health warning. An 18 race maiden that has clearly had a few issues. Throw in the fact that he’s now rated just 42 and this should not be one to go over board with but certainly of interest as we’ll get some juice in the price because of the profile.

I’d urge you to watch the replay of the run at Wolverhampton on January 26th 17, which was his first run for 6 months having previously been seen running terribly at Ffos Las and Brighton in mid summer. Now watch closely. The first thing to note is that the trip was short of what he needs, he clearly wants about 10f, so it was obviously intended as a prep run or cobweb blower. Second thing to note is watch the draw, missing the break, wide trip early, and the effort on board to actually get close….

Now I must stress that there could just be a chance that he is a rogue and that he was really well and fresh ahead of this run. There could also be a small chance that whatever was the issue previously has been sorted and he is ready to rock and roll.

His price is going to allow us some fun. He has opened up at 16/1 tonight and is a really good each way bet. The only negative might be that it may have been picked up by other race readers so he may get well backed. If he does, then he may not even try.

Before we go I must just give you the details of a horse to follow in the early part of 2017. CULLINGWORTH is the one, here are the notes…

I think he’s potentially quite nice horse to follw for 2017. Ran in quite a few conditions races early on before having a mid summer break. Most intersting run was certainly the last start of 2016 when running in a messy race at Chester 9/9/16 when a horse fell and traffic problems. The way he travelled through that race and the fact that he was hampered were both interesting considring how he finshed off. Although well beaten was doing excellent work late on. Definitely capable of achieving much more than 81 this year. The form of this race has worked out really well too.

Pomme – 2.50 Carlisle

Castanea – 5.20 Kempton. E/W.

Be lucky today.

MG

Proform

Hoping the windmill will blow away the Saturday tears!

Proform

Ahh. How annoying was yesterday. Testa Rossa got absolutely hammered late doors into 4/1 from 7’s. Unfortunately the dropping back to seven didn’t really help but in truth he was given a poor ride. Edmunds let him get squeezed out and then just sat behind the whole field. I was shouting at the screen 5 furlongs out for him to switch wide.

I don’t think enough of the jockeys watch enough of the racing. When the horses come under pressure at Newcastle on the all-weather, the majority of them tend to drift to the far side. Horses that try to weave through have a very poor record. Once he switched wide and got daylight he took off but it was too late in a really steadily run race.

I will for now consider it money borrowed. As he is still thriving and will clearly win again soon. Preferably over a mile.

Anyway on to the Sunday action and I will grace you with the first maximum bet for February. I have had the max on BIG WINDMILL (3.20 Taunton). He was one of my eye-catchers in the WeighedInRacing magazine this month. Here are my Proform Notes…..

He’s had the typical education, very much slowly slowly with an eye to chasing I believe. He made his chase debut in a novice handicap off a mark of 112 on January 25th and having been nibbled most of the day he jumped the first three fences really well before seeming to slip or catch heels of the horse in front and unshipped Adrian Heskin.

He looks a big natural chasing type and I really liked the way he jumped the first three fences. He should be followed with interest in the coming weeks..

It’s about time they started winning so fingers crossed the max lands! It should be an interesting few days as plenty of this month’s eye catchers are entered this week so things should really start to pick up!

BIG WINDMILL – 3.20 Taunton – 5pts Max bet @ 9/4 (bog).

Top result for the hammers yesterday. Seems the lads are playing with far more freedom away from home at the moment. Good result at a difficult place to go. Top half finish looks more likely each week whilst the relegation race is wide open!

So looking forward to the Superbowl tonight. Should be an absolute belter. Fingers crossed the windmill will give us plenty of ammo to have an interest!

Be lucky today!

All the best

MG

 

Proform

 

 

Fire Up The Testa Rossa!

Proform

I won’t dwell on yesterday. As I’d feared the mile was just no good for Gold Return and once she missed the break she was a million. She is certainly not one to give up on and will remain on the interesting list when conditions are more suitable.

I have a couple that I must throw into the mix today. First off I’ve had my first decent go on one since I started blogging again in the form of TESTA ROSSA (7.45 Newcastle). He has improved immeasurably over the last over the last 3 or 4 months and it is almost exclusively down to the test that the all-weather track provides. I am absolutely convinced that he would have won again on Jan 21st had he not been stopped in the run not once but twice. He gets to race off the same mark of 80 in here again tonight and I see no reason why he will not win again granted a clear passage. He is actually 2lbs better off as Lewis Edmunds can claim 5lbs rather than the 3 of Downing. The drop back to 7f doesn’t worry me, there is a chance given how he has raced that it may even suit better and there should be plenty of pace on.

Clearly Safe Voyage is a sharp improver and could be a huge danger but I had them much closer together in the market than they are and at 7/1 I think he represents a decent bet. If it is your way I couldn’t put you off backing him each way as I can’t see him out the first three, but he’s a decent bet for me at the prices.

The other one I have to give a positive mention too is FLY TRUE (2.30 Lingfield). Jeremy Gask’s filly should in my opinion have won last time and I’ll be backing her to gain some compensation today. She’s a hold up horse with an excellent turn of foot. Granted round here she will need some luck, but if the gaps come she will go very close. With Mossgo and Come On Dave in here they should go a relentless clip that will bring the closers in to play. It will be hair-raising late doors but I’m convinced she’s better than her current mark.

TESTA ROSSA – 7.45 Newcastle – 3pts win @ 7/1.

FLY TRUE – 2.30 Lingfield – 1 pt win 9/2.

Be lucky today with your punting….oh and COYI

Proform

Friday’s blog…On Thursday night. Hoping for a Gold Return!

Proform

Hello one and all. Threw a small dart at The Lock Master yesterday but although he ran well he wasn’t quite up to it. Looks like his best days are done now but no surprise to see him win a similar event in the near future.

One other note to make from the meeting was something completely off the cuff. Whilst looking at the form for a 50/1 shot, I looked at some sire stats and noticed that Poets Voice is building himself quite a nice book on fibresand. That is a line at Southwell that I will start to follow with interest over the coming months.

I’ll kick thing off today with some trainer Proform stats for you…. these are trainers that have an outstanding win & place strike rate in the last 14 days that have had a minimum of 5 runners.

Marco Botti – 87.50%

John Gosden – 76.92%

Jeremy Gask – 71.43%

James Tate – 66.67%

From Marco Botti’s last 8 runners 7 have finished in the frame. He has Basheer entered today in the 6.15 Kempton. I feel I should give a mention as well to a few trainers that are having plenty of winners. Jonathan Portman has sent out 5 runners in the last two weeks of which 3 have won. Ian Williams and Jamie Osbourne have also been responsible for 14 winners between them in the last fortnight.

So where are we going today? Well a just a couple of chancy ones for you. The first one I will mention, I’m a bit annoyed about the entry, as there is every chance they are just running her to lower her mark. I’m talking about GOLD RETURN (2.00 Ling). As I write this on Thursday night, she’s the complete outsider of the four with Ryan Moore’s mount, Remember Me a short priced favourite.

Now the negative is I think she needs slightly further than a mile, but there are quite a few positives. To start with her are my Proform notes on her from her last run……

“An interesting addition. A fairly lightly raced 4-year-old who was with David Lanigan until December 2016. We all know how Lanigan likes to profile his horses and bring them along slowly with handicap marks in mind. She has now switched to John Ryan and after a couple of quiet runs for this yard (planned), she goes into the book on the back of her run at Wolverhampton 26th Jan 17. She was held up in last which is her style before staying on really well under what we will call a fairly inexperienced ride by young Jonathon Fisher. They went no pace at all early and after an awkward start she did remarkably well to finish as close as she did.

Given a better/stronger ride she would have gone very close to winning this race and can be marked up. Her last win for Lanigan was off 60 and this was off 62. I think 9f should be classed as her minimum now and that a future step up in trip to 10f plus could bring about some more improvement. She should be followed with interest. Likely that she will get well backed next time.”

I hope this clears up why I think she’s interesting. If you find this intriguing just watch that video of her last run. I don’t think having Darragh Keenan on board is a bad thing. He looked really stylish when winning on Piazon a few weeks back. I hope he’s patient as with Skidby Mill in there they should go a fair gallop.

Don’t get me wrong she should probably be the outsider of the four on what we have seen, but I don’t think she should be 14/1. On figures all three of her rivals will need a career best to win this so she is far from out of it. I am concerned this could be another quiet run before the main event but I’m prepared to take the chance at the prices. Even though the mile may be sharp enough.

She will be quite interesting to play in the place and 3TBP markets in a four runner race too assuming her price holds up.

Next up I am going to give one chance and one chance only to a horse in the opening race at Kempton (5.45) called PLEADINGS. He has shown improved form the last twice and was particularly promising at Lingfield last time. He has shaped like a step back up in trip from 6f would be a real good move. Here are the notes I made from his last run.

No real form to talk of before a small note from his run at Lingfield 27th Jan 17 when Shane Kelly seemed to let others go by him before giving him a smack. He is very lowly rated but his pedigree and this run both suggests 6f would be way short of his potential best. Could find a poor race for him.

As you can see from the race is doesn’t get much lower than a class 7, 0-50 at Kempton that he has managed to sneak in to here off top weight. Shane Kelly has kept the ride. He is by Street Cry, whose progeny do well here operating at about a 15% strike rate and I think he has lots going for him. He also comes out well clear at the top of the Proform Power Ratings too.

I don’t think he’s a long-term project but is worth a bet tonight.

GOLD RETURN – 2.00 Lingfield 1 pt win @ 14/1.

PLEADINGS – 5.45 Kempton 2 pts win @ 9/2.

I will probbaly pop them into a small double too for a bit of light entertainment.

Fingers crossed for two good runs. Best of luck with your punting today!

All the best

Mark.

Proform

Proform

Morning all. Good to see from the entries that the diary for all the eye-catchers is starting to fill up nicely over the coming days. I will do my best to get them out nice and early unlike today.

I’ve had a one point bet today on THE LOCK MASTER (2.20 Southwell) at 16/1. In the time it’s taken me to get to London on the train and double-check his price I see it has halved so not much use now but he’s a really well handicapped horse. He loves it round Southwell and if you watch the comeback run last time he travelled really well in that race behind two very well handicapped horses before getting tired turning for home. Bear in mind it wasn’t that long ago he was running in a class 2 off a mark of 92 and today he is down to 70.

If he has come on from that run then he will probably laugh at this lot and you can still have a small interest at around 10/1.

THE LOCK MASTER – 1pt Win at 10/1.

Proform

Another blank day! Article writing time for @weighedinracing

Proform

Morning all, just a post to let you know we have no eye catchers running today. Having been doing racing commentaries for the last three days I will be spending today in my office doing all the videos since Saturday so we should have plenty more to add to the interesting list.

I will also be writing my first eye-catchers article for Weighed In Racing (@weighedinracing) today too. This will contain 3 or 4 of the months biggest eye catchers that have yet to run since and should be placed firmly in your trackers.

Just to touch on one or two of the horses that I’ve mentioned so far. Pulsating is definitely being messed about with so we’ll strike her off. Cold Fusion got pretty well backed at Southwell, well from 40’s into 25’s, but just ran terribly. I will keep an eye on him for now but can’t see him being a betting proposition in the near future on the back of that.

Good luck today!

All the best

MG

Proform

A couple of eye catchers for today and a word on Pomme

Proform

Morning all. I will start off by just touching on the run of POMME yesterday at Doncaster. After being off the track for over a year, she ran an absolute cracker to finish 4th. Indeed had she jumped the last couple of flights better she would have probably placed. The way she travelled into the race suggests that all of that ability is still there that I had hoped and she certainly becomes a project moving forward. I assume that they may take the option of a run in an equally competitive race next time so that they can get her a nice enough mark. Certainly one to follow with interest.

On to the action on Saturday and I have a couple to pass on that caught the eye last time. I will start with the obvious one in HEAD SPACE (4.15 Lingfield). He was a moral winner given the draw when last seen a week ago having got badly out of his ground and coming with a late rattle weaving between runners to get 2nd on the line. From stall 1 today, Kirby should be able to take a slightly more daring passage and if the splits come at the right time he could be hard to contain.

The 2nd runner that went on to the slightly interesting list last week is one to take a bit of a chance with tonight at Kempton. PULSATING runs in the 7.15 and is available to back as I write this on Friday night at a general 20/1. She caught the eye last week under Milly Naseb when getting slightly caught on heels and knocked about turning for home before picking up quite nicely in the straight in the end to be beaten only a length over what is an inadequate five furlongs. This improved effort came with the introduction of first time blinkers which seem to perk her up. They go with first time visor on Saturday which is no bad thing. There is plenty of pace in here with both White Royal and Ninety Years Young likely to go forward and with Kieran Schofield’s 7lb claim she has a lovely racing weight back at six furlongs which is a big plus. The down side is this is a much better race than she has been running in for a while and whilst that is a negative, we are getting 20/1. I think she should be played each way and if things go to plan and the splits come, we could have a nice voucher in our hands come 7.17!

So the bets away from the main action today are as follows:

Head Space 4.15 Lingfield – Win

Pulsating 7.15 Kempton – E/W.

Enjoy the star-studded card at Cheltenham today, I’m on TV duty all day so will soak it all up from the studio.

All the best

Mark

Proform