Pomme’s time to shine & a large priced dart…

Proform

I’m looking forward to Pomme switching to a mares race ahead of the 2.50 at Carlisle tomorrow. She has shown lots of promise on all her starts so far and I’m pretty sure if you look at the figures that you can make a good case for her to be favourite in this race.

If you want more details on why I like her then you can read back through previous posts. Which One Is Which and Lastbutnotleast make this an interesting contest. The latter has a penalty to carry but has shaped like this step up in trip will suit, whilst the former is under priced on what she’s achieved.

They clearly had a choice here with Pomme of going for a similar race to last time and getting her a nice mark or going for a mares race with a big chance of a gaining a win. The way she travels should suit Carlisle and she’ll hopefully be the last off the bridle before going on to score. Bet365 have opened up at 3/1. I think she should be favourite.

Elsewhere, I do have one of the interesting horses running today in the form of CASTANEA (5.20 Kempton). Now let’s not go mad, he’s a 42 rated 18 race maiden. So let that sink in, this is not a bank job and it has health risks attached to it but I do think there is a case to be made.

I get the feeling there may have been one or two issues in 2016 as he started to look awkward. He was given a six month break on the back of his last run in July before making a very interesting return over an inadequate 8.5f at Wolverhampton on Jan 26th. Here are my Proform notes.

This is probably one to come with a health warning. An 18 race maiden that has clearly had a few issues. Throw in the fact that he’s now rated just 42 and this should not be one to go over board with but certainly of interest as we’ll get some juice in the price because of the profile.

I’d urge you to watch the replay of the run at Wolverhampton on January 26th 17, which was his first run for 6 months having previously been seen running terribly at Ffos Las and Brighton in mid summer. Now watch closely. The first thing to note is that the trip was short of what he needs, he clearly wants about 10f, so it was obviously intended as a prep run or cobweb blower. Second thing to note is watch the draw, missing the break, wide trip early, and the effort on board to actually get close….

Now I must stress that there could just be a chance that he is a rogue and that he was really well and fresh ahead of this run. There could also be a small chance that whatever was the issue previously has been sorted and he is ready to rock and roll.

His price is going to allow us some fun. He has opened up at 16/1 tonight and is a really good each way bet. The only negative might be that it may have been picked up by other race readers so he may get well backed. If he does, then he may not even try.

Before we go I must just give you the details of a horse to follow in the early part of 2017. CULLINGWORTH is the one, here are the notes…

I think he’s potentially quite nice horse to follw for 2017. Ran in quite a few conditions races early on before having a mid summer break. Most intersting run was certainly the last start of 2016 when running in a messy race at Chester 9/9/16 when a horse fell and traffic problems. The way he travelled through that race and the fact that he was hampered were both interesting considring how he finshed off. Although well beaten was doing excellent work late on. Definitely capable of achieving much more than 81 this year. The form of this race has worked out really well too.

Pomme – 2.50 Carlisle

Castanea – 5.20 Kempton. E/W.

Be lucky today.

MG

Proform

Hoping the windmill will blow away the Saturday tears!

Proform

Ahh. How annoying was yesterday. Testa Rossa got absolutely hammered late doors into 4/1 from 7’s. Unfortunately the dropping back to seven didn’t really help but in truth he was given a poor ride. Edmunds let him get squeezed out and then just sat behind the whole field. I was shouting at the screen 5 furlongs out for him to switch wide.

I don’t think enough of the jockeys watch enough of the racing. When the horses come under pressure at Newcastle on the all-weather, the majority of them tend to drift to the far side. Horses that try to weave through have a very poor record. Once he switched wide and got daylight he took off but it was too late in a really steadily run race.

I will for now consider it money borrowed. As he is still thriving and will clearly win again soon. Preferably over a mile.

Anyway on to the Sunday action and I will grace you with the first maximum bet for February. I have had the max on BIG WINDMILL (3.20 Taunton). He was one of my eye-catchers in the WeighedInRacing magazine this month. Here are my Proform Notes…..

He’s had the typical education, very much slowly slowly with an eye to chasing I believe. He made his chase debut in a novice handicap off a mark of 112 on January 25th and having been nibbled most of the day he jumped the first three fences really well before seeming to slip or catch heels of the horse in front and unshipped Adrian Heskin.

He looks a big natural chasing type and I really liked the way he jumped the first three fences. He should be followed with interest in the coming weeks..

It’s about time they started winning so fingers crossed the max lands! It should be an interesting few days as plenty of this month’s eye catchers are entered this week so things should really start to pick up!

BIG WINDMILL – 3.20 Taunton – 5pts Max bet @ 9/4 (bog).

Top result for the hammers yesterday. Seems the lads are playing with far more freedom away from home at the moment. Good result at a difficult place to go. Top half finish looks more likely each week whilst the relegation race is wide open!

So looking forward to the Superbowl tonight. Should be an absolute belter. Fingers crossed the windmill will give us plenty of ammo to have an interest!

Be lucky today!

All the best

MG

 

Proform

 

 

Fire Up The Testa Rossa!

Proform

I won’t dwell on yesterday. As I’d feared the mile was just no good for Gold Return and once she missed the break she was a million. She is certainly not one to give up on and will remain on the interesting list when conditions are more suitable.

I have a couple that I must throw into the mix today. First off I’ve had my first decent go on one since I started blogging again in the form of TESTA ROSSA (7.45 Newcastle). He has improved immeasurably over the last over the last 3 or 4 months and it is almost exclusively down to the test that the all-weather track provides. I am absolutely convinced that he would have won again on Jan 21st had he not been stopped in the run not once but twice. He gets to race off the same mark of 80 in here again tonight and I see no reason why he will not win again granted a clear passage. He is actually 2lbs better off as Lewis Edmunds can claim 5lbs rather than the 3 of Downing. The drop back to 7f doesn’t worry me, there is a chance given how he has raced that it may even suit better and there should be plenty of pace on.

Clearly Safe Voyage is a sharp improver and could be a huge danger but I had them much closer together in the market than they are and at 7/1 I think he represents a decent bet. If it is your way I couldn’t put you off backing him each way as I can’t see him out the first three, but he’s a decent bet for me at the prices.

The other one I have to give a positive mention too is FLY TRUE (2.30 Lingfield). Jeremy Gask’s filly should in my opinion have won last time and I’ll be backing her to gain some compensation today. She’s a hold up horse with an excellent turn of foot. Granted round here she will need some luck, but if the gaps come she will go very close. With Mossgo and Come On Dave in here they should go a relentless clip that will bring the closers in to play. It will be hair-raising late doors but I’m convinced she’s better than her current mark.

TESTA ROSSA – 7.45 Newcastle – 3pts win @ 7/1.

FLY TRUE – 2.30 Lingfield – 1 pt win 9/2.

Be lucky today with your punting….oh and COYI

Proform

Friday’s blog…On Thursday night. Hoping for a Gold Return!

Proform

Hello one and all. Threw a small dart at The Lock Master yesterday but although he ran well he wasn’t quite up to it. Looks like his best days are done now but no surprise to see him win a similar event in the near future.

One other note to make from the meeting was something completely off the cuff. Whilst looking at the form for a 50/1 shot, I looked at some sire stats and noticed that Poets Voice is building himself quite a nice book on fibresand. That is a line at Southwell that I will start to follow with interest over the coming months.

I’ll kick thing off today with some trainer Proform stats for you…. these are trainers that have an outstanding win & place strike rate in the last 14 days that have had a minimum of 5 runners.

Marco Botti – 87.50%

John Gosden – 76.92%

Jeremy Gask – 71.43%

James Tate – 66.67%

From Marco Botti’s last 8 runners 7 have finished in the frame. He has Basheer entered today in the 6.15 Kempton. I feel I should give a mention as well to a few trainers that are having plenty of winners. Jonathan Portman has sent out 5 runners in the last two weeks of which 3 have won. Ian Williams and Jamie Osbourne have also been responsible for 14 winners between them in the last fortnight.

So where are we going today? Well a just a couple of chancy ones for you. The first one I will mention, I’m a bit annoyed about the entry, as there is every chance they are just running her to lower her mark. I’m talking about GOLD RETURN (2.00 Ling). As I write this on Thursday night, she’s the complete outsider of the four with Ryan Moore’s mount, Remember Me a short priced favourite.

Now the negative is I think she needs slightly further than a mile, but there are quite a few positives. To start with her are my Proform notes on her from her last run……

“An interesting addition. A fairly lightly raced 4-year-old who was with David Lanigan until December 2016. We all know how Lanigan likes to profile his horses and bring them along slowly with handicap marks in mind. She has now switched to John Ryan and after a couple of quiet runs for this yard (planned), she goes into the book on the back of her run at Wolverhampton 26th Jan 17. She was held up in last which is her style before staying on really well under what we will call a fairly inexperienced ride by young Jonathon Fisher. They went no pace at all early and after an awkward start she did remarkably well to finish as close as she did.

Given a better/stronger ride she would have gone very close to winning this race and can be marked up. Her last win for Lanigan was off 60 and this was off 62. I think 9f should be classed as her minimum now and that a future step up in trip to 10f plus could bring about some more improvement. She should be followed with interest. Likely that she will get well backed next time.”

I hope this clears up why I think she’s interesting. If you find this intriguing just watch that video of her last run. I don’t think having Darragh Keenan on board is a bad thing. He looked really stylish when winning on Piazon a few weeks back. I hope he’s patient as with Skidby Mill in there they should go a fair gallop.

Don’t get me wrong she should probably be the outsider of the four on what we have seen, but I don’t think she should be 14/1. On figures all three of her rivals will need a career best to win this so she is far from out of it. I am concerned this could be another quiet run before the main event but I’m prepared to take the chance at the prices. Even though the mile may be sharp enough.

She will be quite interesting to play in the place and 3TBP markets in a four runner race too assuming her price holds up.

Next up I am going to give one chance and one chance only to a horse in the opening race at Kempton (5.45) called PLEADINGS. He has shown improved form the last twice and was particularly promising at Lingfield last time. He has shaped like a step back up in trip from 6f would be a real good move. Here are the notes I made from his last run.

No real form to talk of before a small note from his run at Lingfield 27th Jan 17 when Shane Kelly seemed to let others go by him before giving him a smack. He is very lowly rated but his pedigree and this run both suggests 6f would be way short of his potential best. Could find a poor race for him.

As you can see from the race is doesn’t get much lower than a class 7, 0-50 at Kempton that he has managed to sneak in to here off top weight. Shane Kelly has kept the ride. He is by Street Cry, whose progeny do well here operating at about a 15% strike rate and I think he has lots going for him. He also comes out well clear at the top of the Proform Power Ratings too.

I don’t think he’s a long-term project but is worth a bet tonight.

GOLD RETURN – 2.00 Lingfield 1 pt win @ 14/1.

PLEADINGS – 5.45 Kempton 2 pts win @ 9/2.

I will probbaly pop them into a small double too for a bit of light entertainment.

Fingers crossed for two good runs. Best of luck with your punting today!

All the best

Mark.

Proform

Proform

Morning all. Good to see from the entries that the diary for all the eye-catchers is starting to fill up nicely over the coming days. I will do my best to get them out nice and early unlike today.

I’ve had a one point bet today on THE LOCK MASTER (2.20 Southwell) at 16/1. In the time it’s taken me to get to London on the train and double-check his price I see it has halved so not much use now but he’s a really well handicapped horse. He loves it round Southwell and if you watch the comeback run last time he travelled really well in that race behind two very well handicapped horses before getting tired turning for home. Bear in mind it wasn’t that long ago he was running in a class 2 off a mark of 92 and today he is down to 70.

If he has come on from that run then he will probably laugh at this lot and you can still have a small interest at around 10/1.

THE LOCK MASTER – 1pt Win at 10/1.

Proform

Another blank day! Article writing time for @weighedinracing

Proform

Morning all, just a post to let you know we have no eye catchers running today. Having been doing racing commentaries for the last three days I will be spending today in my office doing all the videos since Saturday so we should have plenty more to add to the interesting list.

I will also be writing my first eye-catchers article for Weighed In Racing (@weighedinracing) today too. This will contain 3 or 4 of the months biggest eye catchers that have yet to run since and should be placed firmly in your trackers.

Just to touch on one or two of the horses that I’ve mentioned so far. Pulsating is definitely being messed about with so we’ll strike her off. Cold Fusion got pretty well backed at Southwell, well from 40’s into 25’s, but just ran terribly. I will keep an eye on him for now but can’t see him being a betting proposition in the near future on the back of that.

Good luck today!

All the best

MG

Proform

A couple of eye catchers for today and a word on Pomme

Proform

Morning all. I will start off by just touching on the run of POMME yesterday at Doncaster. After being off the track for over a year, she ran an absolute cracker to finish 4th. Indeed had she jumped the last couple of flights better she would have probably placed. The way she travelled into the race suggests that all of that ability is still there that I had hoped and she certainly becomes a project moving forward. I assume that they may take the option of a run in an equally competitive race next time so that they can get her a nice enough mark. Certainly one to follow with interest.

On to the action on Saturday and I have a couple to pass on that caught the eye last time. I will start with the obvious one in HEAD SPACE (4.15 Lingfield). He was a moral winner given the draw when last seen a week ago having got badly out of his ground and coming with a late rattle weaving between runners to get 2nd on the line. From stall 1 today, Kirby should be able to take a slightly more daring passage and if the splits come at the right time he could be hard to contain.

The 2nd runner that went on to the slightly interesting list last week is one to take a bit of a chance with tonight at Kempton. PULSATING runs in the 7.15 and is available to back as I write this on Friday night at a general 20/1. She caught the eye last week under Milly Naseb when getting slightly caught on heels and knocked about turning for home before picking up quite nicely in the straight in the end to be beaten only a length over what is an inadequate five furlongs. This improved effort came with the introduction of first time blinkers which seem to perk her up. They go with first time visor on Saturday which is no bad thing. There is plenty of pace in here with both White Royal and Ninety Years Young likely to go forward and with Kieran Schofield’s 7lb claim she has a lovely racing weight back at six furlongs which is a big plus. The down side is this is a much better race than she has been running in for a while and whilst that is a negative, we are getting 20/1. I think she should be played each way and if things go to plan and the splits come, we could have a nice voucher in our hands come 7.17!

So the bets away from the main action today are as follows:

Head Space 4.15 Lingfield – Win

Pulsating 7.15 Kempton – E/W.

Enjoy the star-studded card at Cheltenham today, I’m on TV duty all day so will soak it all up from the studio.

All the best

Mark

Proform

A couple for your trackers, one for today.

Proform

Morning all, as I mentioned yesterday there is nothing on the all-weather from the eye catchers running today but I did just want to make a note of a horse that is entered over hurdles at Donny and pass on one from midweek which I think is interesting going forward.

First up at Doncaster today in the 4.25 just pop POMME into your trackers. She’s an interesting horse having made her hurdles debut some 413 days ago one can only assume she’s had the odd problem but that was a debut full of promise. She made a terrible mistake at the 2nd flight and lost plenty of ground as a result. Conor O’Farrell was easy on her after that and let her do things in her own time but she made up plenty of ground and at the finish was only beaten 12 lengths. The race was won by Winter Escape who we know all about and is now rated 140 and is heading for the Betfair Hurdle. The horses around Pomme on this day have won a total of 16 races between them since. So the form has plenty of substance.

Had she not made that mistake on debut who knows how close she would have gone. We have no idea if she is match fit today so I’m not saying we should be steaming in at 25/1, but she is probably worthy of say a half point e/w bet with a look to the future. The chances are that they may take their medicine now, be quite quiet with her and hold her back for handicaps, or indeed mares races at which point she’d be real interesting.

So stick Pomme in your Proform Horse Watcher, or whichever tracker you use and watch with interest this afternoon.

The other one I wanted to give a mention too is a chaser of Tom George’s called BIG WINDMILL. He’s had the typical education, very much slowly slowly with an eye to chasing I believe. He made his chase debut in a novice handicap off a mark of 112 on Wednesday and having been nibbled most of the day he jumped the first three fences really well before seeming to slip or catch heels of the horse in front and unshipped Adrian Heskin.

He looks a big natural chasing type and I really liked the way he jumped the first three fences. Stick him again in your Proform Horse Watcher or your trackers for the coming weeks. He should pay his way in handicaps.

That’s all for today. Another 15 horses went in to the eye-catchers report yesterday, of which 6 were straight on the very interesting list!

Best of luck today!

Mark

Proform

The new blog for 2017 and a trip to the USA!

Proform

Well a belated happy new year to one and all. I certainly hope that the first blog of the new year finds you in good fettle. I won’t go into a long-winded story of how lame my blogging attempts were for 2016, we’ll just need to move on and quickly.

The truth of the matter is that using being too busy as an excuse not to chuck a few words down is just not really acceptable and I will be publishing on a much more frequent basis this year. The main reason for this is that my eye catchers report has taken off and I feel that I can certainly put some of the pieces and information from the report onto the blog without hindering it in any way.

There are currently a list of 101 horses that are on the interesting list as we move into 2017. About half of these will be saved for the turf later in the year, the other half I’m sure will start to appear on the all-weather over the coming weeks. Of the 101, there are approximately 20 horses that are on the VERY INTERESTING list. These are horses that have knocked my eye balls out and should be followed with real interest. I will do my best to put most of these on the blog, probably just before racing. This gives the clients that receive my eye catchers report more than adequate time to have any bets on that they want and I won’t ruffle any feathers.

Amongst the 101 horses I’m currently monitoring, there is a list of 27 that are “horses to follow” for 2017 and of those, a list of approximately 10 that would be outstanding purchases. If you are on the look out for a horse for your club, or owners, I’m sure these may be of interest to you.

I know from when I was a frequent blogger that many of you liked the daily stats and Proform bits and pieces. I will do my very best to add these into the daily ramblings too. Now from almost all of my previous on here you will also recall that I am almost always a flat man. I do watch and to a degree get involved in jumps racing, but nowhere near the level on the flat. That is not to say that I do not put horses in to the eye catchers over timber, in fact one went in to the report yesterday. Just be aware that I do operate at about 95% Flat to 5% jumps.

Over the next month or so I will also be putting together my Horses to Follow list for 2017. Probably around about horses for the upcoming flat turf season that should be profitable to follow.

At the back end of 2016 I had for the first time the opportunity to go racing in the US. I attended a Friday afternoon card at Belmont Park whilst I was in New York and then had the pleasure of attending the Breeders Cup at Santa Anita for the first time. It was a real eye opener and a terrific experience.

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 Here are a couple of pictures from my visit to Belmont Park. It is a huge place. An amazing racecourse. On a mid-week meeting like this is was a bit of a shell of a place as there were literally no more than 1000 punters there on the day. The one thing that did impress me was that it was simply $4 for entry.

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 I was lucky enough to spend both the Friday and the Saturday at the Breeder’s Cup at Santa Anita. It was a great experience and it is such a beautiful setting. It was a priveledge to be on the winning line as California Chrome and Arrogate did battle up the lane. Here are just a  few of the pics from the two days in Arcadia……

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Frankie on Queens Trust…. was trying to capture the flying dismount wiht about 50 others!

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And here is the champ……

Really was a trip of a lifetime. If you have never been I can’t recommend it highly enough.

Ok back to the video study for me! There are no flat horses for Friday but I do have a couple for you to stick into your various trackers for the jumps and one going to Doncaster.

All the best

MG

Proform

A couple to keep on side this evening……

Proform

Afternoon all. A couple of lovely results yesterday with Mischief Maisy getting very well backed from 20’s into 10’s and getting a very good ride to win. That may well be the limit of her ability but we bagged it on the good day. Mister Bob drifted all day right out to 10/1 then duly did the business too so good results all round. Refulgence is finally, off the list.

Just a couple to note that are running this evening.

7.30 Newbury – Loaded – 9/1 Generally – 1pt win

I think he’s a nice horse and potentially a bit better than his opening mark of 82 suggests. At Chester last time I think he hated the undulations and looked certain to want a bit further in time. A few of these have already played their hands in handicaps where as this lad looks cherry ripe for tonight.

9.10 Newbury – Siri & Severus – 25/1 & 16/1 2x 1pt singles.

A couple to play against the field in the concluding handicap on the card. You have to be forgiving for both last runs but I’m happy to do so. Siri messed about in the stalls at Carlisle, got restless and missed the break. They went no real pace and she was always on the back foot and not persevered with. She is better than that and can prove it tonight. I’m astonished she’s 25/1, if you watch the video back from Sandown the time before she was desperately unlucky not to win what was a better race than this.

Severus hated the heavy ground over a mile at Newmarket last time and drops back to seven on fast ground this evening. He travelled up strongly to a point that day and today should suit much more. They are both rated 72 but with the allowances Siri gets 8lbs off Severus so I slightly favour her. Play them both against the field of largely exposed beasts.

Good luck

Mg

Proform