Evening one and all. I have decided for longevity purposes that if I come up with some shit once a week then I can get all it all out in one go instead of trying to get some daily bits and pieces up whilst on the road.
This will be a lot broader than previous blogs. So no specific bets as such for you punters but each week I will certainly give you the details of all the weeks eye catchers, with full reasoning as to why they should be followed, which in turn should give you plenty of winners. In the short-term I really don’t see this having a negative effect and crashing the price of said runners so until that starts to happen it will be all good. I will touch on any other racing matters of interest and indeed anything sport related that needs airing.
I will also at some point in the next week be discussing Proform. Simon and the team are in the process of making some excellent additions to not only the software, but also the only race guides and two new projects for the upcoming national hunt season. Amazing to think that we are already starting to think about Cheltenham.
Ok so on to the eye catchers. This is how I operate. My meat is all flat handicaps (turf & AW) from 5-12f. This gives me a specific area to work on. Although I do watch most other racing this is not the area I will concentrate on. From each weeks video study I can add anything from 1-50 horses on to the interesting list. I rate each entry with either 1, 2 or 3 stars. 1 star is where a run/ride has caught my eye for any reason. 2 is a strong interest. 3 stars is simply a must follow and back next time.
I will give all the 3 star eye catchers every week and then give a mention to the others if I feel appropriate. This gives you the chance to stick them in any trackers you may have and keep your eyes on entries.
This weeks 3 stars:
RATEEL – James Tate
Three runs in maidens spread out over the summer and beaten similar distances in all of them meant an opening handicap mark of 67 for a nursery at Chelmsford on 3rd September. The first time hood was applied which meant he was keen early on but having travelled really well turning for home he got into a tight spot and the leaders had gone. I’m not sure that Chelmsford will really play to his strengths and the handicapper took note and has raised him 2lbs for that run. The fact that he had the hood on and he’s lost his nuts already suggest that he is clearly a character but I am very confident he is better than 67 and should be followed over the coming weeks. He has no current entries.
MOONLIGHT SONATA – Sir Michael Stoute
Beaten favourite on his return in April before winning a weak class 5 maiden when stepping up to a mile and a half at Lingfield in August. That resulted in an opening handicap mark of 80 for a ten furlong contest at Bath on 2nd Sept. Cue a Ted Durcan special. I honestly to this day don’t know how he has got that job. He is currently head to head with James Sullivan on the Lester’s tactically inept rider of the year award. There were only seven runners at Bath, but Durcan took every wrong choice and ended up getting trapped on the inside before switching out late doors (when leaders had gone) and flew home. First off, she is clearly well handicapped (been raised to 82 for that run) and when she steps back up to a mile and a half plus she could be potentially thrown in. She is beautifully bred and Sir Michael wouldn’t persist if he didn’t feel he could get a good deal out of her. There is a case for saying that with time she could be a three figure horse over staying trips.
She should be followed closely. Especially in handicap company. Jesus if Ryan was fit she would be a mortgage job next time over a mile and a half. As I write this she has no entries.
ROOSEY – William Haggas
One to get the old tummy tingling this. I am absolutely convinced this son of acclamation is a stakes horse. Currently rated 93 he ran a cracker at York (6th September) when not getting the best of runs and finishing fourth. you can put a line through the run at Newmarket as the ground went against him and he raced away from the action. Previous to that he finished behind Magical Memory (since run a blinder in the group 1 Sprint Cup) also at HQ. Both of those runs suggest to me he has a big run in him off 93 when getting quick ground. He had several entries at Ayr this week which I’m sure was the target but the ground has gone against him. The worry could be that he is not certain between now and the end of the season to get ground that will suit. He may well be held back by Haggas for next year. There is a possibility he could run on the all-weather as there would be valuable options for him on All-Weather finals day at Lingfield. He must be followed with interest, preferably on quick ground. Again as things stand he has no entries.
CARTMELL CLEAVE – Stuart Kittow
Ted Durcan episode two. This one was probably even worse. A rapidly improving sprinter for Stuart Kittow who really should have won at Ascot on 5th September. He was running all over his rivals through most of the race and would have won had Durcan not been texting and riding at the same time. this was off 90, having bolted up off 82 the time before at Newmarket. I don’t think I’m telling you much that most people didn’t see at Ascot. He seems to handle any ground with form on all types of ground including the all-weather. With that in mind there should be several possibilities before the end of the year. I do like sprinters in form so I hope the next run is sooner rather than later and I would be even more encouraged should Kittow opt for a very good apprentice. I would imagine there is a sprint handicap at Ascot first weekend of October which will suit. Follow him and his entries. At this stage he has none.
BIG TIME – David Nicholls
A one time very smart colt that was 5th behind Kingman in the Irish Guineas. His peak rating was 114 when with John Joseph Murphy. Over the last 16 months his form has kinda fallen off the face of the earth but he caught my eye in the entries when I noticed he had been switched to Nicholls ahead of his run at Haydock on 4th September off his new handicap mark of 89!
Well if that pricked my attention then the run pricked every single part of me and jizzed all over the room. He travelled really well through the race before being angled back to the inside behind runners (cheeky) and was not touched with the whip in any shape or form. You don’t often see horses that you think should go back in trip but the way he travelled and his back class suggest to me that Dandy may have the same idea. We all know how much of a dab hand he is with his sprinters. The handicapper who had clearly had a lovely afternoon also took the opportunity to drop him another 2lbs to 87.
He could be a long-term project. He could also be gone at the game. There was more than enough at Haydock for me to think he is a clearly well handicapped horse that Nicholls could win some very nice pots with and fingers crossed that run has fallen way under the radar.
He was entered at Ayr this week but didn’t go through with that engagement which I think is wise. He is hot property in my book and should be followed with real interest.
No current entries.
MERCY ME – John Ryan
There will be no surprise to some that the final three star eye catcher this week was ridden by Adam Kirby at Kempton 9th September. She won a handicap at Leicester at the start of the year off 71 and has steadily dropped back down the weights. This run came off 72 where she was steadied and trapped four wide for much of the race (nice) then mad a move all the way around the field as they turned for home. The front two had long gone (and are both very progressive for the grade) whilst once Kirby gave her a smack, she took off. Once realising that she was going to make significant progress, Kirby stood up in the irons as she couldn’t win by then.
The handicapper was watching an episode of Eastenders at the time and has kindly dropped Mercy Me another 3lbs to 69 on the back of that. Party time is surely just around the corner.
She has no current entries, but should be followed over the coming weeks. She though is the classic case of a horse that could be a huge plunge.
That is all for this week’s three stars. Here are a selection of 2 stars to keep an eye on.
MALLYMKUN – Karl Burke
Dropped from 71 to 58 and after a good third behind Maymyo (won again since) she blew the start at Wolverhampton on 5th September before running on to get 2nd. She was pretty well backed that day suggesting that she is ready to win. Interesting. No entries.
GRAVITY FLOW – William Haggas
A rare maiden eye catcher. The word was out before her debut but she completely fluffed her lines at the stalls. Once the penny dropped she absolutely took off and was only beaten a quarter of a length. She is entered at Kempton on 21st September (Fillies Maiden) and should take a lot of beating.
DISTAIN – Lady Cecil
Very well backed prior to run at York (6th Sept). Missed the break and was being bumped along from a long way out. Still showing significant signs of greenness. Once the penny dropped again she took off out wide shaping like a step back up in trip will be ideal. She is entered in a fillies handicap on Saturday 19th and will win.
GET KNOTTED – Michael Dods
Given a poor ride at Thirsk last time that can be ignored. He is progressive and shouldn’t have stopped winning this year. Entered on Saturday at Ayr in a race his trainer does well in.
ORION’S BOW – David Nicholls
Dropped to a really tempting mark and absolutely tanked to the front at Thirsk 5th September before getting tired late doors on soft ground. He is entered on good to firm up at Hamilton on Sunday 20th Sept and will be very interesting up there off 71.
Hopefully that gives us plenty to get our teeth into. I will be back after the weekend with an update.
Be lucky over the weekend!