Trying to find a golden nugget for the coming weeks…

Evening one and all. Hope this post finds everyone well and full of winners. An interesting week in the racing world with nothing much happening in terms of major news, other than Aidan O’Brien getting ever closer to Bobby Frankel’s record for group one winners. Enable will also stay in training at four, which is fantastic news. Longchamp anyone?

My one note from the action the past week or so would be that I’ve convinced myself that Clemmie is now the real deal. Given her pedigree she is surely going to improve for going up in trip and is very exciting. Whether she goes on to win the Guineas next spring is something we have to wait seven months to find out. One thing I’m pretty sure of though is if she doesn’t run again this season and she turns up at Newmarket in May, she’ll be 6/4 on the day, so if you like long-term investments, the 4/1 around is probably for you.

For those of you that follow my ante-post NFL prop bets it was great to see Leonard Fournette have a big weekend. Through five weeks he now has 466 yards and the each way money at 40/1 for leading rusher is definitely a live voucher. Whilst I still have him outside the top three, the way the Jag’s D keeps them in games, their run first nature can only assist in the rookie having a big first season. Let’s hope he stays healthy.

Right so this week, with little time on my hands I wanted to take a slightly different approach and just see if I could find a little nugget for the upcoming jumps season. I started off playing around with the Proform system builder and looking at the fate of favourites and horses at the front of the market to see if I could see any glaring angles.

Not an awful lot showed up, other than similarly to the flat, there are a handful of tracks where favourites have an excellent record. So I changed tack slightly and given we are at the start of the season I started to look at trainers that have their horses in good nick on the back of a break. So I ran a query in to Proform looking at all trainers performance in National Hunt races (chase, hurdle & NHF) on the back of a minimum 60 day break. This threw up plenty of profitable trainers but almost of them were on the back of the odd massive priced winner that skewed the P&L figures.

So again a bit of trimming down and I decided to limit the next search to handicaps only and now we start to pick up one or two potential angles. Five trainers stood out with exceptional strike rates and a lovely healthy profit. I won’t mention them all but I’ll certainly give a positive mention to Olly Murphy who has had a terrific start to his training career in 2017.

From the above criteria, Olly has had 12 runners and 4 winners. So as the winter progresses, he is certainly someone to keep an eye on.

The trainer that stood out above everyone else though was the excellent KEITH DALGLEISH. These figures are represented as always from Jan 1st 2010.

Keith has had just 26 runners in handicaps chases/hurdles in that time on the back of 60+ days off the track, of which 13 have gone on to win with a profit of 41.26pts to BFSP. That is a 50% winning strike rate. What is just as interesting about these figures is that of the 13 that got beat, 9 of those traded at 50% or less of their BFSP in running. So there is no doubt at all that Keith has his horses bouncing and ready to roll in the national hunt season on the back of a break in handicaps. Certainly an interesting angle for all of you that like to trade pre-race or in running.

One thing I would add in to the argument is that all of the winners were priced between 6/4 and 8/1 which would suggest that they were well fancied too. If we run the system again looking at his runners that had an SP of less than 9/1, suddenly the strike rate leaps to 72.22% (83.33% win & place). A total of 13 winners from 18 runners.

So whilst it’s short and sweet this week, and won’t throw up that many selections. When Keith Dalgleish  has a runner in a handicap hurdle or chase on the back of a minimum 60 day break and is a single figure price, you should probably have it on side.

I’m open to any kind of suggestion for something to look at for next week. Feel free to post in the comments and I will take a look.

Have a top week. Thank god the international break is over!

Mark

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Early season jumps form from Proform. Who was hot in 2016?

Afternoon one and all. Great to see how many of you have been engaging about the potential of using the Proform software to enhanced your betting experiences. Had several emails and messages to look at some angles for various friends on Twitter and we have highlighted one or two interesting angles.

I have barely touched the jumps scene yet and this is something that I am concentrating on for most of this week. The speed figures and power ratings when used correctly are very powerful indeed on the flat and the all-weather. Now I need to put them to proper use over the sticks too.

One thing I know is always of interest early on is the constant reference to trainers that “do well in October” or “have them well forward early”. So what I did for a little bit of fun today is just run a very quick query in to Proform to see how the profitable trainers performed early season in 2016.

So I looked at all trainers form last year for October and November over hurdles, chases and bumpers. I added in a couple of parameters in to the mix to only give us trainers over 20% strike rate, that showed an overall profit, plus one or two other requirements. This is what we ended up with…..

So an interesting collection of trainers that had their string well forward at the beginning of last season. One or two obvious names in there. From these names I just had a quick gander at the winners from the opening jumps meeting at Chepstow. Rebecca Curtis was 3/10, whilst Paul Nicholls, Fergal O’Brien and Colin Tizzard also had quick starts. Between the four of them at Chepstow last year they had a level stakes profit of 43.01 pts on the opening fixture.

Just a small piece today for some early season jumps interest. If you are considering joining Proform, I believe they are running a 50% sign up offer at the moment. All the details can be found on their Twitter account.

http://www.proformracing.com

All the best

Mark

 

 

The final word on the Proform Speed Figures and month end results!

As I’m writing this on Sunday afternoon it would be rude not to start with a mention for Enable. She’s just won the Arc in a hack canter. She is some filly and has been an absolute pleasure to watch throughout the summer months. John Gosden’s handling of her has once again been absolutely exemplary.

So on to the main topic of this blog post as Septemeber has come to an end and I can asses the performance of the various systems that I have been closely monitoring using Proform. I should stress that if this is the first time you have stumbled across this blog, you should probably give the original post a quick gander. It can be found here:

https://mgsportsramblings.wordpress.com/2017/09/22/are-speed-figuresratings-profitable-lets-take-a-look-at-proform_racing/

So how did we do in September? Well first off the double top rated system, which is what is says on the tin. Top on the Proform power ratings and top on the LTO Proform speed ratings. This is a system which produces steady profits month on month and this is how it fared in Sept:

352 qualifying selections, 99 winners, 28.13% strike rate & +43.42pts with a 12.34% ROI.

A reminder that these figures are taken from the prices available the evening before racing and that is now 17 consecutive profitable months from the DTR system. 100% from when Proform started to collect the evening prices last May.

Right, that’s the housekeeping done, so what of the system that I put together using the LTO speed ratings from Proform. Another really good month and I have thoroughly enjoyed tracking all the runners and seeing how it pans out on a daily basis. A reminder that the system that I developed uses the horse that had the highest speed rating LTO in all handicaps on the flat. It then has several other parameters that will remain a secret whilst I continue to develop it. This is how we got on…

542 qualifying selections, 92 winners, 16.97% strike rate & +105.78pts with an ROI of 18.86%. (Profit to BFSP= +35.71 points).

So another brilliant month that now puts it +930.32 points in 2017. The 1000 point marker is firmly in sight. The major negative with the way this works is the sheer volume of selections that it throws up. Through September an average of 18 per day, but in reality in peak summer it is much higher than this.

The highlight of the month was Fire Leopard winning at 20/1 having absolutely cantered through the race from the rear of the field.

There are so many positives though and it is something that I am very much looking forward to monitoring over the coming months. The daily numbers for the system will drop off quite a bit over the winter months as the turf racing comes to an end.

Away from the two main projects I have also been working on about 5/6 other much smaller sample size systems that all show a nice profit over time. For the sake of future analysis I have grouped them all together to become a main “system” as such. They attack various elements of the game. I have already blogged about the Southwell one. I have also developed a lovely little program for some very profitable trainers that have horses returning after a break. I also stumbled across a nice little earner revolving around Godolphin horses. Another string to add to the bow revolves around using the Proform Power Ratings in certain national hunt races and to finish off certain trainers have an excellent record running their horses in maiden races on the flat.

So it seems it will be a very interesting few months following all of the above. The pace will drop for sure until the turf flat season gets into full swing again next spring. I will continue to give occasional updates on how all of it goes.

Happy punting

@markagrantham

 

As winter draws in, let’s tuck in to the good stuff! Southwell anyone?

Firstly thanks for all the feedback on last weeks blog post. It is great to see how many people are taking an interest in not only Proform but also the different approaches you can add to your betting portfolio. Things are going well again in September with winners up to 22/1 so far. The system had a good day on Monday throwing up winners at 9/4, 7/1 and 14/1 as well as a 10/1 winner on Tuesday. Having had a brief conversation with Simon on Friday I can confirm that using the evening before prices makes an enormous difference to the P&L. My estimation was nowhere near as much as reality. As I mentioned Simon only had the evening before prices back as far as May 2016, so for 17 months of data. Having shown a profit of 813.81 from 1st Jan 2010 on the figures I had, Simon confirmed that the actual evening before price profit since last year was +1432.56 which is staggering. There is obviously a deduction to come off this from rule 4’s but it is only minimal in reality. So as things stand, I’m hopefully on to something very interesting. I will continue to monitor this.

As I write this on Tuesday evening this month is currently +35.79 pts in profit. Although not following it as closely, I believe the DTR system is running at about the same sort of figure.

So what next? What’s the next angle to look at? Well given the time of the year and with the flat coming to an end, I thought that I’d have a look at the winter action but hold on, no I’m not like 90% of Twitter. I refuse to start talking about the Cheltenham Festival in September! Although having said that, I do plan to have a look at the festival stats at some point in the next week or two. If you know me well, you know that when it comes to the winter it is all about the all-weather Racing! To narrow my search down I am going to have a good look at Southwell which I’m sure there are a few angles.

So where to start with trying to find a profitable angle when it comes to betting at Southwell. Well my immediate thought is with my own involvement with horses at the track and pals horses that have been shrewdly purchased. We’ve had some wonderful success there, and a lot of it comes from the fact that we managed to get hold of horses that were by Speightstown. Southwell is our only track in the UK that comes close to replicating the conditions of dirt racing in the US and the progeny of Speightstown have an excellent record on the fibresand surface, especially first time up.

So this got me thinking, how do horses perform on the surface based on which country they are bred from. This was my first query into Proform, again using 1st Jan 2010 onwards. The results were as expected, lots of red numbers all over the screen apart from three countries that had the following numbers to BFSP:

France +102.60

Canada +10.73

USA + 649.01

On the back of these numbers I clustered these three countries together and had a look at plenty of the usual variables. Race distance, age etc. The only real variable that had a large impact on the numbers was the race type. Again, lots of red numbers all over the screen, but three very decent plus numbers as follows:

Auction Races: +131.72

Handicaps: +630.34

Maiden Races: +173.34

So once I drilled down all the variables these are the final figures that came out from my system builder results:

Horses from either USA, FRANCE or CANADA, in all AUCTIONS, MAIDENS & HANDICAPS at SOUTHWELL on the AW.

1706 Qualifiers, 292 winners @17.12% strike rate. +£765.48 to £1 at stakes at BFSP and a 44.87% ROI.

Whilst thinking that age and race distance may have an impact on the results, they made very little difference to the outcome.

All in all this equates to an average profit of 109.35pts per year. Which to many people will not seem like a great deal, but remember we are looking at putting together a portfolio of profitable systems that win without you having to do any kind of work other than updating the Proform software and putting the bets on. So this is another one to add to the portfolio and one that I will also monitor over the coming months.


Whilst looking at the above system my mind starting to think about another angle I constantly refer too. It largely comes from an old hunch I used to have that sprinters that ran well and turned up to the track again within a few days seemed to have a good record. Although I never actually had any stats to back this up, was it a myth or reality? So off I went again… searching through Proform System Builder looking for another angle.

My findings were not quite what I hoped but still showed a profitable angle. I basically looked at all horses from Jan 1st 2010 that had finished in the first three of their race and were running again within seven days. Across all racing this showed a very small profit. Once I started to play with all the variables again I managed to start to eek out the negative elements of another potential system.

In the end if you eliminated all races on the all-weather and concentrated solely on turf racing this improved things. Once again, then just using handicaps and removing all other races, the profit grew.

In the end these were the final figures I got too without too much effort since Jan 1st 2010:

12,452 qualifiers, 2,685 winners at a strike rate of 21.56%. +£344.45 to £1 stakes. +2.77% ROI. So this system whilst I think has some legs, doesn’t currently offer enough a profit for me to be interested in it. I will continue to tweek this until I find something more robust and at the moment can be parked on the “in progress” shelf. I also on the back of this started to play around with winners LTO that were returning to the track within seven days. It returned far less qualifiers obviously but very similar figures in the P&L, so this is another one that I will play around with over the coming months.

If anyone reading this has an idea they would like me to look at, I’m more than happy to delve in to the system builder and have a play around.

Hope some of this inspires you to start to have play with Proform yourself. If you have any questions or comments I’m always available on Twitter: @markagrantham. Roll on the fibresand season!

All the best

Mark

 

 

 

Are speed figures/ratings profitable? Let’s take a look at @Proform_racing

Proform

We hear about various forms of ratings on a daily basis in the pundit world. Racing Post Ratings, Timeform Ratings, Proform Power Ratings etc, but can we use any of these to make us some cash. Having had a few months away from the scene (working not jollying), I took some serious time to have a good look at the Proform Ratings to see if anything what I could uncover.

For those of you that are unfamiliar with Proform, it is just about the most in-depth piece of software available for racing fans. A full form book database that also provides its most valuable feature, the system builder.

Having been an avid user of Proform for some years, even I have barely scratched the surface with this weapon of mass destruction. For Proform subscribers, you will have heard Proform’s top man Simon Walton talking a bit about the DTR System. This is a system that highlights the “double top rated” on both power rating and speed figures. For 90% of people that will have an interest in this piece, this system is hard to run as it relies largely on having plenty of access to BOG bookmaker accounts. Something that has not been seen in these parts for a while. From the emails that Simon passed on, the figures surrounding the Proform Speed Figures really pricked my interest as they seemed to out perform the others by some way, so I spent many hours having a look at if I could eek out some profitability using them.

So as a base to my interest, I ran a system query on all the horses that were the TOP or JOINT TOP speed figure for every race in the UK & Ireland since 1st Jan 2010. Here is the result of that query…..

1. General Breakdwon

So the initial look shows that from 105,524 selections, we would have had 22,076 winners but would have done our conkers to the tune of -£825.07 to a £1 stake to BFSP. So clearly from the bottom line, backing all the TOP rated on speed figures would mean the day job continues.

So how can I break this down to see if there is anything we are missing. Next, I asked Proform to break these numbers down by RACE TYPE to see if any codes are better than others….

2. Race type

So from the breakdown of my second report, all of a sudden, maybe there is something to work with. Turf races since Jan 1st 2010 show a profit of £428.73 to £1 stakes to BFSP. At a nice tidy strike rate of 20.74%. All of the other codes show a significant loss. Now whilst this is certainly a step in the right direction, on average this equates to 61.24 points profit per year. So now it is time for me to concentrate solely on the turf figures and see if we can drill this down to improve the overall strike rate and more importantly. The P&L.

So what can we look at next? The variables are enormous. Ground, trip, race type, course…we could go on. So first stop here is to break all of the turf figures down by the classification of the races to see if we can grind out another angle. Here is what was returned….

Breakdown by race classification

So from the above image you can now start to draw more of a picture of where the main part of the profits are coming from. Whilst a few of these do tick over a small profit over the time, you can clearly see from this that HANDICAPS are a very profitable angle to work from. So let’s chuck everything else out and have a look at handicaps only and the bottom line that they produce.

Handicaps only botom line

So a profit of £487.34 to £1 at stakes to BFSP for all turf handicaps over the past seven years. Again though this does not really give us enough points profit for the amount of work you are going to have getting all these bets on each day. I hope at this point we are starting to build just how effective the Proform system builder can be. Now obviously when we get to this stage, I’m going to be a bit of a tease.I spent a lot of time on this and have found a breakdown that I’ve been following for a while now which is going really well. At the moment, it all goes into a spreadsheet every night is being monitored until the end of the year…

To give you and idea, I played around with the race classifications, race distance which was a big factor and ground conditions too. Once I nailed all this down to be the most efficient I could find it this is what I managed to get the final “system” to produce.

final

So I’ve managed to almost double the profit to BFSP by playing around with the huge number of variables available on the Proform System Builder. Winners from odds on right the way through to 40/1. What do these figures mean and how do with improve them even more?

Take Hugh Taylor as an example. A fantastic race reader and tipster for Attheraces. I dread to think how many hours a week, Hugh spends watching racing, making notes and assembling his list of horses for potential future bets. As I’ve already mentioned Hugh averages about 206 points profit per year just on his ATR selections. My botched up system above is averaging 116.25 points profit over the last seven years. One thing that will hopefully be a new addition to the software is that evening price figure that Simon has been working with for about 18 months now. By backing all of the system qualifiers the night before ( I normally look at about 7pm) your profit on the above figures at an estimate would at least double. The amount of Proform Top Speed Figure horses that shorten in the market over night are phenomenal. Whilst I have only been collecting these figures on the evening prices for 5 weeks or so, Simon’s figures from the last 18 months more than back this up.

My rough estimation from the evening prices over the same period would suggest that my drilled down system would be approximately 2000 points in profit (285 per year). I will of course each month, give an update on here so anyone that is interested can see how it develops. So far to date in September we are +47.79 points before Friday’s racing. The great thing about Proform is that once your system parameters are saved, the software automatically alerts you of all the qualifiers on the home screen, making placing your bets very easy. They are just as easily copied into spreadsheets too.

The biggest draw down to this system is that you obviously need access plenty of BOG bookmaker accounts too take advantage of the evening before prices. Given the plethora of accounts available, you should have absolutely no problem following this type of system for some time before you run out of options… and as a last resort, it is still very profitable to Betfair SP.

If you have not seen Proform before, check out the website:

http://www.proformracing.com

Hope this has given you some food for thought on finding some winners based purely on statistics.

Happy punting

MG

Proform

Updated eye catchers and today’s interests!

I know the blogs over the winter were few and far between but I hope that plenty of you slotted Cullingworth into your trackers from the early posts. He re-appeared at Mussleburgh this week and travelled really well through the race before coming through well to win. He was available in the morning at fancy prices and returned at 16/1. Absolutely delighted with the performance of Next Stage at Newmarket on Tuesday too, the Defrocked form from last year was strong and back on better ground he was excellent.

A couple running today out of the Proform Watcher. That is Mystique Moon (5.20 Newmarket). I liked the way he dominated a slowly run four runner contest first time in a handicap. The result doesnt do him justice for how much he was on top and a 6lb rise won’t stop him. This should suit even better and he is well worth backing at a general 5/1 today, personally I’ve invested 3 points.

Final is a horse that I’m just a bit baffled at the campaigning of. He has shaped more times than I can remember like 12 furlongs plus is where he desperately needs to be. It may be that MJ has a long term target (Ebor maybe) and that he is trying to get as much out of him at 10 first. Anyhow he goes again today over that trip at Ripon and if he can get an early position and they go quick enough, he could well have a say in the finish. I’ve had one point to win (15/2) and will be having more points on him in the place and 4TBP markets.

On to all the lastest entries to Proform from the last week……..

Dinneratmidnight

Tends to come on for first run so highly encouraging effort on return at Wolves 17/4/17. All his wins have come at 6 furlongs so this was especially interesting over a quick five here. They went quick and he travelled really well from off the pace and was just punched out by Fanning close home.  He is on his last winning mark of 77 and should be very interesting in the next few weeks.

Rose Berry

A small note of a horse to follow. Been pitched in at the deep end a couple of times. Firstly her last run last season in a group 3, then on her return to action at Wolverhampton 17th April was thrown straight into a competitive 0-85 contest. She travelled ok through the race which was won from the front and was never asked too much of. That should have blown away the cobwebs and she looks well capable off 77 to me. I would assume next time they will look to slip her into a less competitive 0-80 and we can see her progress again.

Whitecliff Park

Not one at all for maximum faith but shaped encouragingly at Wolverhampton on 17th April 17. Held up off a steady pace he went through it quite nicely, but got outpaced as the quicker horse accelerated. He was closest at the finish. this was 9.5f, his best efforts have been over a mile and a half and with his knee action and bit of juice might be ideal on turf. Going back through his form, surprised to see that he has not tried beyond a mile and a half yet. certainly one to have on side moving forward up in trip. Jockey bookings could be crucial.

Medahim

A nice horse. He sluiced in on debut just before Christmas and re-appeared at Wolves 17th April when travelling through the race like much the best horse off an opening mark of 87. He was tucked in a pocket and was second to Original Choice (Haggas) who mas given a masterful ride by De Sousa. Frankie didn’t overdo it once it was clear he couldn’t win and I think on a more conventional track (straight) we might see him progress some way past 87. He has an entry in the 2000 Guineas, but they may take the option to bring him along steadily and take in a couple of handicaps instead.

Mutarakez

Interesting if not all together decisive. A couple of lack lustre efforts to get him race fit this year before being pretty well backed at Newmarket 18th April. The race was won by the unexposed Next Stage of Godolphin (who I was extremely keen on) from the front in a race where they didn’t go mad up front. Mutakarez was held up out the back and went comfortably through it. When the pace quickened he just got caught on heels once or twice and was forced to switch and was doing all his best work late on. Bearing in mind his mark has dropped from 101 down to 89 it seems he may be worth following for a few starts given his conditions as he was clearly better than the result shows. One note of caution would be that his head carriage wasn’t great. His best speed figures and ratings have been on genuine good ground.

Vibrant Chords

Like so many sprinters, especially from this yard, he seems to have come on leaps and bounds from 3 to 4. He was heavily backed ahead of his reappearance at Newmarket 18/4/17 and it was absolute head in hands stuff. He tanked through the race off a strong gallop but just as the race developed he got squeezed out at a crucial stage. Once in the clear he flew but it was too late and he finished on the heels of the leaders, i’ve absolutely no doubt he would have run out a ready winner. Given he’s already rated 90, not sure what will be next as they may well head in to pattern company, but if they stay in handicaps he is a must bet next time. Definitely one to follow with interest.

Stradivarius

Very much learning on the job and after scrambling home in his maiden he moved into handicap company for the first time at Beverley 19/4. Moving up to ten furlongs for the first time, the further he went the better and he laughed at his rivals close hom on what is ultimately a speed favouring track off his opening mark of 78. Mr Handicapper is likely to give him a sharp rise for this, probably 10lbs I would imagine but that should not be stopping the progress as his pedigree screams a mile and a half. As he steps up in trip, keep following.

Powerallied

Just a small note, he didn’t run as badly as the result may suggest at Beverley on his return 19/4. He came on a bit for first run last year and has a good record round Chester, so would be interesting if he turns up there off what is a winnable mark, especially as he may got another small drop for this effort.

Our Charlie Brown

Held up on return off a strong pace at Beverly 19th April, he ran on late passed some beaten horses and shaped with much encouragement. This should bring him on quite a bit and I would expect him to take a step forward from this in the coming weeks.

Inshaa

One for a bit of a health warning as he’s still a maiden after 18 starts. He has though, managed to fall down the weights as a result and would surely have gone incredibly close to winning at Wolves 19th April but for 2 or 3 run stopping moves. The ay he finished off the race was eye-catching to say the least. That just may be him all over but in this basement grade stuff he is surely playable.

The flat is back! Week one eye catchers

An absolutely fantastic time of the year, my favourite without doubt as we head towards the summer season, the flat, cricket and sunny days!

Here are the latest additions to the Proform Horse Watcher that you should be looking to back…..

Lord George

Steady improvement in 2016 and actually ran really well in a race where they didn’t go quick on re-appearance at Newcastle. Race was won by Wild Hacked which stacks up with the Big Country form and is very strong indeed. Considering he was hampered up the straight and they didn’t go a great pace, he did really well to get as close as he did. Quite possibly a pattern horse moving forward and should be followed under optimum conditions.

Amood

A very interesting run after completely missing the break at Newcastle on 14th April 17. He has shown a real liking to this place and is on a nice mark. After missing the break he effectively finished on the bridle after just getting stuck behind a wall of horses about a furlong and a half out. He has clearly come on for his initial outing and is surely ready to win and should be kept on the right side of.

Scuzeme

Having won his maiden really easily at Newcastle in January he took another step forward with his run on handicap debut at Nottingham 12th april. Held up out the back he made smooth headway to come through the field to finish 2nd to what looked like an absolute handicap blot in Justanotherbottle. He won this off 73 but could be at least a 90+ horse so I have to mark up Scuzeme. If you watch the video closely, Phil Makin can see that the race is gone and is very sympathetic with him close home yet he still comfortably picks up 2nd. There is every chance on pedigree that he may appreciate a step up to 6 at some point too. One to follow with interest.

Weekend Offender

A large eye catcher at Nottingham on his re-appearance 12/4/17. Downside to this one is that his run would have been picked up by all the decent race readers and might not be any price at all. Firstly it was a day at Notts were being handy was an advantage. He was noted travelling really well back in the field and as the race developed he had to wait for the gaps to appear before moving to the outside to challenge. He made ground up quickly and was surely unlucky. He has come on for his first run in his first two seasons so should be of major interest in the coming weeks with conditions to suit. Bearing in mind he’s a Lope De Vega, soft ground should not be a problem at all.

Hertford Dancer

She’s only rated 72 and is one of the lesser lights for Gosden but again she has shaped here (12th April – Nottingham) like she is going to be a middle distance horse. Outpaced and slightly unbalanced as the race quickened turning for home, once she was switched out wide she stayed on really nicely without ever really looking like winning. She looks a 12f+ horse to me on all evidence and when stepped up in trip, if placed well she’ll be wining races soon.

Masarzain

Not one for maximum faith but quite interesting all the same. Having steadily dropped down the weights over the last six months he is on an attractive mark. His run at Catterick 12th April has pricked my interest. He was in first time blinkers off a career low mark of 65 and was a little slowly into stride which meant that he was poorly placed at the rear of the field. After coming four wide off the bend, he played bumper cars for the first furlong in the straight but once seeing clear daylight he picked up really well without the weapons being chucked at him. One to keep on side

The Armed Man

This is only a minor entry. Seems to have done well over the winter and travelled really smoothly at Catterick in apprentice race on re-appearance when given a really poor ride by Paula Muir. The horse effectively carried her and nothing more, she took about 100 yards to get her stick sorted. Having tickled down the weights, chances are he’s on a winning mark.

Desert Ruler

Looks to have done well from 3 to 4 and was absolutely desperate on re-appearance at Ponte 11th April. He was in last on the rail turning in and couldn’t get a clear run. When the gaps came he absolutely flew and just failed to get there. He’ll probably get a rise in the weights for this and would have been picked up by quite a few eyes but he looks like a seriously well handicapped horse on that evidence.

Melabi

Has changed hands several times which may mean all is not grand but since his switch to Richard Ford he has managed to get him dropped another ten pounds to 67. Peak rating of 80 after his maiden win means he’s on a nice mark now and if you watch his comeback run at Pontefract 11th april 17 you might be salivating. Jockey never moved a muscle on him after a tardy start until long after the race had gone and to the untrained eye it looked like he was just plugging on for a nice fourth place. Watch more closely and you’ll see there is very minimal effort. Chances are he will get dropped a coupled more for this and will become very interesting now in the coming weeks.

A note to remind you all that NEXT STAGE is entered at Newmarket on Tuesday. He hated the soft ground on his final run last year but on what he showed us previously, must be ahead of his mark and should be backed with the ground drying out.

 

 

Pomme’s time to shine & a large priced dart…

Proform

I’m looking forward to Pomme switching to a mares race ahead of the 2.50 at Carlisle tomorrow. She has shown lots of promise on all her starts so far and I’m pretty sure if you look at the figures that you can make a good case for her to be favourite in this race.

If you want more details on why I like her then you can read back through previous posts. Which One Is Which and Lastbutnotleast make this an interesting contest. The latter has a penalty to carry but has shaped like this step up in trip will suit, whilst the former is under priced on what she’s achieved.

They clearly had a choice here with Pomme of going for a similar race to last time and getting her a nice mark or going for a mares race with a big chance of a gaining a win. The way she travels should suit Carlisle and she’ll hopefully be the last off the bridle before going on to score. Bet365 have opened up at 3/1. I think she should be favourite.

Elsewhere, I do have one of the interesting horses running today in the form of CASTANEA (5.20 Kempton). Now let’s not go mad, he’s a 42 rated 18 race maiden. So let that sink in, this is not a bank job and it has health risks attached to it but I do think there is a case to be made.

I get the feeling there may have been one or two issues in 2016 as he started to look awkward. He was given a six month break on the back of his last run in July before making a very interesting return over an inadequate 8.5f at Wolverhampton on Jan 26th. Here are my Proform notes.

This is probably one to come with a health warning. An 18 race maiden that has clearly had a few issues. Throw in the fact that he’s now rated just 42 and this should not be one to go over board with but certainly of interest as we’ll get some juice in the price because of the profile.

I’d urge you to watch the replay of the run at Wolverhampton on January 26th 17, which was his first run for 6 months having previously been seen running terribly at Ffos Las and Brighton in mid summer. Now watch closely. The first thing to note is that the trip was short of what he needs, he clearly wants about 10f, so it was obviously intended as a prep run or cobweb blower. Second thing to note is watch the draw, missing the break, wide trip early, and the effort on board to actually get close….

Now I must stress that there could just be a chance that he is a rogue and that he was really well and fresh ahead of this run. There could also be a small chance that whatever was the issue previously has been sorted and he is ready to rock and roll.

His price is going to allow us some fun. He has opened up at 16/1 tonight and is a really good each way bet. The only negative might be that it may have been picked up by other race readers so he may get well backed. If he does, then he may not even try.

Before we go I must just give you the details of a horse to follow in the early part of 2017. CULLINGWORTH is the one, here are the notes…

I think he’s potentially quite nice horse to follw for 2017. Ran in quite a few conditions races early on before having a mid summer break. Most intersting run was certainly the last start of 2016 when running in a messy race at Chester 9/9/16 when a horse fell and traffic problems. The way he travelled through that race and the fact that he was hampered were both interesting considring how he finshed off. Although well beaten was doing excellent work late on. Definitely capable of achieving much more than 81 this year. The form of this race has worked out really well too.

Pomme – 2.50 Carlisle

Castanea – 5.20 Kempton. E/W.

Be lucky today.

MG

Proform

The dudes are waiting!

Proform

Well February has got off to a flying start. Of the nine eye-catchers I’ve given positive mentions too on the blog over the last few weeks, a total of zero have won. One or two have shown promise for next time, one or two have simply ran terribly. Really disappointed with Big Windmill yesterday. He jumped poorly in truth and was just on the back foot from the first fence. He shaped like that track/trip is too sharp for him. Line through it and move on.

I’m writing this Sunday evening as I’ll be up till god knows what time watching Tom Brady win the Superbowl MVP and Lady Gaga lighting up half time (food break and beer).

Two average meetings on Monday, just a couple of Proform notes in terms of trainer form. Ken Slack, Tracy Waggott and Chris Dwyer have all had a 66.67% strike rate of win & placed horses the last 2 weeks. Ian Williams has sent out 23 runners in the last 14 days, 9 have won.

I will only pass on one horse today from the list and hopefully this one will break the blog hoodoo. HYMN FOR THE DUDES (5.50 Wolverhampton) was a huge eye-catcher two starts back when basically finishing on the bridle back on the 31st May. On the back of that run he was off the track for 8 months before re-appearing at Wolverhampton on Jan 23rd. He clearly needed it and after travelling well through the race he was forced wide and weakened late on in a race where Adam Kirby seemed to be given a charmed life if you get my drift.

The key to this is, I’m sure this was a quiet ride to get him spot on. He is clearly better than his mark of 51 and even more importantly, Adam Kirby has been booked for the ride too. Whilst I am writing this his price is already starting to go tonight, but there is still some 5/1 about so I am happy to put him up.

COLD FUSION is in the same race and it will be interesting to see how she fares back here compared to Southwell last week. I may have a final tiny saver on her as a last chance saloon before she is dropped off the list.

Hymn For The Dudes – 2pts win @ 5/1.

Have fun tonight and be lucky tomorrow!

MG

Proform

Hoping the windmill will blow away the Saturday tears!

Proform

Ahh. How annoying was yesterday. Testa Rossa got absolutely hammered late doors into 4/1 from 7’s. Unfortunately the dropping back to seven didn’t really help but in truth he was given a poor ride. Edmunds let him get squeezed out and then just sat behind the whole field. I was shouting at the screen 5 furlongs out for him to switch wide.

I don’t think enough of the jockeys watch enough of the racing. When the horses come under pressure at Newcastle on the all-weather, the majority of them tend to drift to the far side. Horses that try to weave through have a very poor record. Once he switched wide and got daylight he took off but it was too late in a really steadily run race.

I will for now consider it money borrowed. As he is still thriving and will clearly win again soon. Preferably over a mile.

Anyway on to the Sunday action and I will grace you with the first maximum bet for February. I have had the max on BIG WINDMILL (3.20 Taunton). He was one of my eye-catchers in the WeighedInRacing magazine this month. Here are my Proform Notes…..

He’s had the typical education, very much slowly slowly with an eye to chasing I believe. He made his chase debut in a novice handicap off a mark of 112 on January 25th and having been nibbled most of the day he jumped the first three fences really well before seeming to slip or catch heels of the horse in front and unshipped Adrian Heskin.

He looks a big natural chasing type and I really liked the way he jumped the first three fences. He should be followed with interest in the coming weeks..

It’s about time they started winning so fingers crossed the max lands! It should be an interesting few days as plenty of this month’s eye catchers are entered this week so things should really start to pick up!

BIG WINDMILL – 3.20 Taunton – 5pts Max bet @ 9/4 (bog).

Top result for the hammers yesterday. Seems the lads are playing with far more freedom away from home at the moment. Good result at a difficult place to go. Top half finish looks more likely each week whilst the relegation race is wide open!

So looking forward to the Superbowl tonight. Should be an absolute belter. Fingers crossed the windmill will give us plenty of ammo to have an interest!

Be lucky today!

All the best

MG

 

Proform