Proform Power Ratings Profits? Can It Be Done?

Afternoon one and all, I hope this blog entry finds you all well after the festive season. Happy new year to everyone. In the words of John Lennon Let’s hope it’s a good one, without any fear.

So in 2017 I had a good look at various aspects of trying to win without thinking using the data we get from Proform. As mentioned many times before the DTR system put together by Proform continues to work very well. The speed figure systems that were on previous blogs also continue to perform, although they are certainly more effective on the turf than the all-weather. On the back of previous posts I got a lot of feedback and messages revolving around the issue of backing them all with bookmakers that provide best odds guaranteed, the difficulty of getting on, and if there are angles to look at for Betfair SP, thus making it much easier for people to get on. So today I thought I would have a good look at the POWER RATINGS and see if there are any smaller angles we can find simply revolving around them and how we can try to making a profit simply from using Betfair SP that can add a bit more in the way of the profit column.

So first things first let’s run the system builder and get the results of the top power rated horse in all races since January 1st 2011……

 

So as you can see, backing them blind over the course of the last 6 years would not have been a sharp route to the Bahamas. Over 2341 pts lost to BFSP over the period.  Just to get absolute clarity and a clearer picture I’ll break down those results and present them year by year….

 

So quite clearly you get a fairly consistent strike rate in and around 25% but a healthy loss to go with it to Betfair SP. So just like on previous efforts how can we now break this down to try to find an angle or two to turn those negative results in to positives? Let’s start by having a look at all of the same results but this time around I will break them down by their different race types. Maybe they are more profitable on the flat than jumps etc. Here is what we get…..

 

The first thing to obviously notice is that bumpers have a much better performance than anything else, clearly 94 points profit over the span of 6 years is not going to get the juices flowing though. That is a topic that I will almost certainly touch on in the near future as there are definitely some angles to be exploited in bumpers. Largely though, this breakdown doesn’t tell us an awful lot more. Mostly negative figures, especially on the turf, which is completely the opposite to looking at the speed figures. Before I try some other things just to get a bit more clarity, I want to run the same report again but this time I want to look at the different race classifications, just to make a mental note of any particular races that the Power Ratings are very strong in. Here is what we got…

 

Making some notes from what we get here you can see that races at the highest level seem to do pretty well. So grade 1-3 and group 1-3. That is fairly obvious, the top rated in the highest level contests tend to be the best horses in training and should produce a high strike rate. I will write a separate blog post on this area at another time as we approach the flat season. So to sum up at this stage there are no glaring angles to producing a high profit return, so it’s time to start thinking slightly out of the box. What can I change, or look at that may increase the profitability of those Power Ratings.

So what is the most common thing we hear across the world of social media when it comes to making a long-term profit from your betting? That’s right, VALUE. What happens if we look at horses that are top rated, but the market underestimates their chance? Surely this provides us with some value if the horse is top rated but the market has them at a big price? Bearing in mind that the overall loss on all the runners was -2341.60 pts, I started to run the reports in stages to see how the profit and loss reacted to gradually increasing the SP of the top rated horse. Here is what happened…..

The above represents all top rated with an SP of larger than 3/1.

This one represents all top rated with an SP of larger than 5/1. Starting to get the feeling this is going somewhere as that negative figure is getting smaller and smaller.

We move on to an SP of 8/1 and above. Only minus 62, so we are getting ever closer to a profit.

Ta da!!!!  We’ve made it to some profit. 10/1 and above.  A profit of 560.77 across the 6 years gives us an average of 93.46 pts per year. Whilst this is not a huge amount, it is another positive figure to add to the overall figures from your statistical betting. Clearly this is a system that will not suit a lot of punters. It has a very low strike rate of just under 6% and a lot of patience will be needed. Having said that, patience will provide some rewards, it only provides approximately 3 selections per day. 12th February 2011, What A Warrior won at Warwick as the top rated at a Betfair SP of 126.98.

Before I closed the book on this I wanted to have one last look, and this time taking those positive figures from above and once again having a quick look at the results through their race type just to make sure there isn’t something I’m missing.

You can see that chases have a negative impact on the results and that if you put a line through jumps racing and just ran this on the flat, all-weather and in bumpers, you would increase your profitability once again.

The big downside to this approach is that it works off SP. Clearly at 8am when we may be placing our bets, you have no idea what the SP will be, so to give it a very accurate reflection, you would need quite a hands on approach and placing your SP bets close to off time. I’m pretty sure that if you use the overnight prices as a guide and place BFSP bets on anything that is 10/1 or bigger at 8am for instance. This will still show a very similar profit level. If you have the luxury of BOG accounts, then this system again is fairly simple to operate. 93 pts a year is certainly not life changing, but when you add it to the portfolio we have already to started to build, it is more money in the profit column. I hope you have found this mildly interesting again. If you haven’t yet stumbled across Proform before, feel free to click on the image below which will take you directly to the website, where you can find all the information you need.  I will be back in the next few weeks with another piece on yet more Proform angles. Happy punting!

All the best

MG

 

 

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Wednesday 3rd Jan

Morning all. It has been an interesting few days across all sports. Well done to those of you that backed Native Robin the other day, he was so weak in the betting throughout the day, but the result was never really in any doubt. He absolutely tanked through the race and could have been called the winner a long way out. The SP of 11/1 (16 BFSP) was a decent touch for those of you with BOG.

On the NHL front, good to see Vegas and Boston continue to win and contract in price. Some of the bookmakers reacted to the bets and prices from the other day, some are still sleeping. Hills cut Boston from 33/1 into 14’s within a day or so. They were mightily impressive again last night winning 5-1 on the road in New York.

Trainers with runners today that have a win and place strike rate of above 50% in the last 10 days:

Nick Williams 75%

Warren Greatrex 72.73%

Kim Bailey 63.64%

Donald McCain 52%

Tim Easterby 50%

A couple of eye catchers worth noting going today. CRITICAL THINKING (7.10) would have gone very close to winning last time had he not got caught out off a slow pace. He’s well handicapped on his old form. Back up in trip with Cameron Noble claiming 3lbs off his back, he looks a cracking bet today at about 9/2. I have had a small saver on SANAM in the same race who could be absolutely lobbed in on his first handicap start for Ed Dunlop.

At Southwell today there are a few speculative wagers to look out for too. In the 1.10 FABELLA BERE steps up in trip. She got outpaced and plugged on last time over a mile. She is bred to like the surface and the slower tempo today might find her in the mix. She’s about 20’s on Betfair. Later on in the final race (3.40) the two complete outsiders MINING ROCKS and GONEWITHTHEWIND are both of the smallest interest. Mining Rocks has never been here before and is bred to appreciate the surface. He’s on a tumbling mark and another 7lbs is taken off by the young rider. Gonewiththewind has dropped to a career low mark, the rider takes off another 3lbs, he’s down in grade. They are 34’s and 60’s on the machine, so I’ll be having small plays at those prices with slightly better interests in the place markets.

Good luck today.

MG

Sunday 31st December Racing Notes

Evening all. Having had a good delve in to the racing on the final day of 2017, I have come across one or two that are worth throwing a couple of quid at.

First up I’ll give you some latest Proform Stats that could help with your punting today.

Trainers In Form:

Trainers with a win & pl strike rate of over 50% over the last 10 days.
Nick Williams 85.71%
Mark Johnston 80%
Michael Easterby  66.67%
T Lacey 66.67%
John Butler 60%
Robert Stephens 60 %
Kim Bailey 57.14%
Jennie Candlish  54.55%
Simon Dow 50%
C Byrnes 50%

 

NATIVE ROBIN (2.35 Warwick) caught the eye and went in the horse watcher on the back of his run at Exeter a month ago. He’s been out of sorts since his return to the track after 18 months on the side lines but at Exeter showed a bit more when getting outpaced over a trip short of his best, before running on a bit once beaten. He’s been dropped another 3lbs for that so is now 6lbs lower than his last winning mark. Add into the mix going back up in trip and a drop in grade back to a 0-105 and he looks an interesting contender. If he’s come on for those two runs he’s a decent bet.

On the opening shows he is available at 6/1 general. 2 pts win.

ADMIRAL BLAKE (3.00 UTTOX) is another well handicapped beast that should be monitored in the betting. Testing conditions are no problem for him and his run in what turned out to be a betting farce at Exeter last time should not be underestimated. Although beaten a long way he plugged on ok at a trip short of his best. Having won at the turn of the year off 75 & 82 a couple of years ago, he should be very capable back down to this basement mark. James Best takes back over in the saddle and he gets in this race off a lovely racing weight of 10 stone. Not beyond the realm of possibility that he returns to some form here.

At 16/1 (Bet365) he is definitely worth having a point each way.

Nap of the day though without doubt has to be MYSTIQUE MOON (1.45 Lingfield). The son of Shamardal has won two of his three starts so far, only losing out to another rapidly progressive Godolphin inmate last time out at Chelmsford. He’s been raised 9lbs for being beaten last time but that race is full of decent form. His successor Arabian Hope won the Ganton Stakes (Listed) at York. Native Soldier won off 75 and Ebbesbourne won off 80. Whilst plenty of these are on the way down, Mystique Moon is still on the up and can take this with a view to being back here on Good Friday.  Alfred Hutchinson is well handicapped and likes it here so should be a danger and monitor the run of Cherbourg. Out of the weights here, but may end up better than this mark at some point in the near future.

Opened at 11/4 tonight with Bet365. I’d be surprised if he was better than 6/4 at the off. 3 pts win @ 2/1 general price.

Will update any others later.

MG

 

 

 

A look at the Stanley Cup (NHL) mid season markets……

Seasons greetings and all. I trust you have had a wonderful festive period and you are looking forward to the new gym membership in the new year! With racing at its quietest point of the year for me personally I have taken the last day or so to go through the markets in the other sports that I have a long-term interest in. The turn of the year is always a decent time to look at the NHL as we are pretty much at the mid-season point and there are always a few ricks from the books as they are fairly lazy about the prices as they really don’t see much long-term money for them. I have managed to find a few that are of definite interest and hopefully you can get a few shillings on before they cut them.

I will apologise in advance for the first one as I’m not sure how much you will really be able to get on but the biggest mistake in the outright market is for the VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS who are currently 33/1 with 188Bet. They are also the wrong price to win their division but I’ll get to that in a moment.

A brand new franchise this year, they recruited very well. Shot data is excellent and they have been imperious at home. The Golden Knights currently have the 2nd best record in the league, lead the Western Conference and therefore should not be anywhere near 33/1. They are generally around a 16/1 chance which is more in line with their actual price (although I think that is still on the high side). As I said, I don’t what you will get on but the 33/1 should be taken before it disappears. Please have some on for me too whilst you’re at it!!

The Vegas lads should also be backed to win their division with Coral/Ladbrokes at 7/2. I struggle to see both Anaheim and San Jose making up the ground on LA and Vegas. I have it as a two runner affair, therefore the 7/2 looks a good bet as in reality they should be around 2/1.

Second error on the outright market are the vastly improved NEW JERSEY DEVILS. Second in the Eastern Conference and with a 22-9-5 record, the Devils are starting to roll. Most firms have wised to it but 888 sport and Unibet are both 30/1. That is too big for a team of their quality.

HOT TEAMS

Teams improving at a rate of knots are always dangerous when it comes to the back-end of the season and there are two to keep an eye on. The Washington Capitals are post season regulars and have looked much better over the last month or so. They are 16/1 with Boylesports in the outright market and that is another price to be interested in. They are 7/2 to win the Metropolitan Division and I’d be looking to get heavily involved in that price if it wasn’t for the Devils being in there too (5/1). Split stakes on the two would not be your worst bet of 2017.

The other one, and this is not biased in any way is the Boston Bruins. The B’s are hot going 8-1-1 in their last ten and seem to have finally shaken the TD Garden voodoo with a much better home record this year. Boston’s youngsters have added some real depth and whilst they cannot catch Tampa for the division, William Hill’s view that they are a 33/1 shot to go all the way is wrong.

Finally I’ll finish with my main bet, and that is the NASHVILLE PREDATORS to win the Central Division at 2/1 with Bet365. I won’t go in-depth other than to say I think they are the best team in that division and having played fewer games than the chasing pack, I think they are going to be very hard to knock off the top. They are about a 5/4 shot so the 2/1 is a nice price.

Outright:

Vegas Golden Knights (*what you can at 33/1)

New Jersey Devils – 1pt @ 30/1

Washington Capitals – 2pts @ 16/1

Boston Bruins – 1 pt @33/1

Whilst this is 3/1 Eastern Conference heavy, you could add Nashville if you wanted to be evenly split.

Divisions:

Vegas (Pacific) – 2pts @ 7/2

Washington/NJ (Metropolitan) 2 pts Wash @ 7/2 (Lads/Coral) 1 pt NJ @ 5/1 general.

Nashville (Central) 5 pts win @ 2/1.

15 pts outlay.

Hopefully these will give you plenty of fun across the remainder of the season, and more importantly some decent profit.

All the best

MG

 

Winning Without thinking… A final look at the 2017 stats and the P&L.

Evening all. I’d like to start this post off with a little moan about pubs. My parents live in the wonderful small seaside village of Rottingdean down in Sussex. My old man, myself and my brothers all play or have played for the village cricket club at some point through our lives. It’s a wonderful part of the world, but what the hell are the pub landlords playing at? Five pubs all within 200 yards of each other on the high street. Every single one of them has removed their dart boards off the wall. FFS? Must be because they are over flowing with high-end gourmet food customers eh…………………… oh?

Moving on and time to address the multiple in boxes I’ve been getting in regards to the previous posts about the stats betting. The overall line for you all at this point that it continues to prove very profitable indeed. Over the last three-four months or so I have continued to develop several systems that do very well over a substantial period.

I understand that for many of you reading this blog, you will dismiss it immediately. I mean betting on racing purely based on stats? Doesn’t that take away most of the fun of the chase of trying to find that elusive winner? On the other hand the majority will also be people who on the whole; lose from their betting. There are plenty of people who don’t have the attention to detail, skill or indeed the time to be able to find the required angles on a day-to-day basis to find enough winners to make a profit. 95% of twitter are winners, but 99% of punters are losers. You do the maths. The number of people who contacted me on the back of those previous posts shows that there is certainly an interest in that style of betting.

To recap I basically have developed three different strategies. The first one is a take on the Proform Racing DTR (double top rated) system. The basis of it is exactly the same. To be a qualifying selection the horse in question must be top on both the Proform Power Ratings and the LTO Speed Figure. Once this is established the horse must then go through some other parameters to whittle it down. Since the figures for this system began it has NEVER had a losing month. As explained in previous posts, this system relies on being able to back the selections the evening before racing, so bookmaker BOG accounts are needed to make this tick.

Exactly the same is said for system number two. This revolves all around the LTO Speed figures from Proform. I work strictly in handicaps and the selections have to go through several criteria analysis before they are confirmed. Again, BOG accounts are essential for this system to maximise the profits, although it is also very profitable to Betfair SP so this can be run by anyone without being shut down. Backing these the night before however gives approximately a 33% increase to the P&L.

The third system I follow is a combination of about ten mini systems that all show really nice tidy profits over the space of the past five years. I call it the STATBUNDLE. These systems have lots of different angles all together. Everything from sire stats, horses for courses, trainers that do very well first time in handicaps in certain race types, all-weather specialists, track specialist, trainers off a break and so on. It is very varied and really fun to follow. In November alone the pack has produced winners at 66/1 (Betfair SP of 191) and 33/1. It’s taken plenty of time to put all these together but it has also been a lot of fun.

I won’t break it all down completely but I will give you a rough guide as to the three different systems have fared so far in 2017.

THE DTR SYSTEM WITH A TWIST

+505 pts

10/10 winning months in 2017

THE SPEED FIGURES SYSTEM

+310 pts

7/10 winning months in 2017

THE STAT BUNDLE

+767 pts.

9/10 winning months in 2017

So you can see that if you had followed all of the above to 1pt stakes over the course of the year you would have made 1,582 pts. So whilst stat based betting might not be everyone’s cup of tea, it certainly seems to be profitable over time if you put the effort in. What is important from the above figures is that the speed figures system and the stat bundle are all calculated to Betfair SP. So they can be operated by anyone without losing any accounts.

For those of you that have already been in touch and for anyone interested in following these systems, please feel free to drop me an email at: magracing78@gmail.com

For now though, happy punting!

All the best

MG

Trying to find a golden nugget for the coming weeks…

Evening one and all. Hope this post finds everyone well and full of winners. An interesting week in the racing world with nothing much happening in terms of major news, other than Aidan O’Brien getting ever closer to Bobby Frankel’s record for group one winners. Enable will also stay in training at four, which is fantastic news. Longchamp anyone?

My one note from the action the past week or so would be that I’ve convinced myself that Clemmie is now the real deal. Given her pedigree she is surely going to improve for going up in trip and is very exciting. Whether she goes on to win the Guineas next spring is something we have to wait seven months to find out. One thing I’m pretty sure of though is if she doesn’t run again this season and she turns up at Newmarket in May, she’ll be 6/4 on the day, so if you like long-term investments, the 4/1 around is probably for you.

For those of you that follow my ante-post NFL prop bets it was great to see Leonard Fournette have a big weekend. Through five weeks he now has 466 yards and the each way money at 40/1 for leading rusher is definitely a live voucher. Whilst I still have him outside the top three, the way the Jag’s D keeps them in games, their run first nature can only assist in the rookie having a big first season. Let’s hope he stays healthy.

Right so this week, with little time on my hands I wanted to take a slightly different approach and just see if I could find a little nugget for the upcoming jumps season. I started off playing around with the Proform system builder and looking at the fate of favourites and horses at the front of the market to see if I could see any glaring angles.

Not an awful lot showed up, other than similarly to the flat, there are a handful of tracks where favourites have an excellent record. So I changed tack slightly and given we are at the start of the season I started to look at trainers that have their horses in good nick on the back of a break. So I ran a query in to Proform looking at all trainers performance in National Hunt races (chase, hurdle & NHF) on the back of a minimum 60 day break. This threw up plenty of profitable trainers but almost of them were on the back of the odd massive priced winner that skewed the P&L figures.

So again a bit of trimming down and I decided to limit the next search to handicaps only and now we start to pick up one or two potential angles. Five trainers stood out with exceptional strike rates and a lovely healthy profit. I won’t mention them all but I’ll certainly give a positive mention to Olly Murphy who has had a terrific start to his training career in 2017.

From the above criteria, Olly has had 12 runners and 4 winners. So as the winter progresses, he is certainly someone to keep an eye on.

The trainer that stood out above everyone else though was the excellent KEITH DALGLEISH. These figures are represented as always from Jan 1st 2010.

Keith has had just 26 runners in handicaps chases/hurdles in that time on the back of 60+ days off the track, of which 13 have gone on to win with a profit of 41.26pts to BFSP. That is a 50% winning strike rate. What is just as interesting about these figures is that of the 13 that got beat, 9 of those traded at 50% or less of their BFSP in running. So there is no doubt at all that Keith has his horses bouncing and ready to roll in the national hunt season on the back of a break in handicaps. Certainly an interesting angle for all of you that like to trade pre-race or in running.

One thing I would add in to the argument is that all of the winners were priced between 6/4 and 8/1 which would suggest that they were well fancied too. If we run the system again looking at his runners that had an SP of less than 9/1, suddenly the strike rate leaps to 72.22% (83.33% win & place). A total of 13 winners from 18 runners.

So whilst it’s short and sweet this week, and won’t throw up that many selections. When Keith Dalgleish  has a runner in a handicap hurdle or chase on the back of a minimum 60 day break and is a single figure price, you should probably have it on side.

I’m open to any kind of suggestion for something to look at for next week. Feel free to post in the comments and I will take a look.

Have a top week. Thank god the international break is over!

Mark

Early season jumps form from Proform. Who was hot in 2016?

Afternoon one and all. Great to see how many of you have been engaging about the potential of using the Proform software to enhanced your betting experiences. Had several emails and messages to look at some angles for various friends on Twitter and we have highlighted one or two interesting angles.

I have barely touched the jumps scene yet and this is something that I am concentrating on for most of this week. The speed figures and power ratings when used correctly are very powerful indeed on the flat and the all-weather. Now I need to put them to proper use over the sticks too.

One thing I know is always of interest early on is the constant reference to trainers that “do well in October” or “have them well forward early”. So what I did for a little bit of fun today is just run a very quick query in to Proform to see how the profitable trainers performed early season in 2016.

So I looked at all trainers form last year for October and November over hurdles, chases and bumpers. I added in a couple of parameters in to the mix to only give us trainers over 20% strike rate, that showed an overall profit, plus one or two other requirements. This is what we ended up with…..

So an interesting collection of trainers that had their string well forward at the beginning of last season. One or two obvious names in there. From these names I just had a quick gander at the winners from the opening jumps meeting at Chepstow. Rebecca Curtis was 3/10, whilst Paul Nicholls, Fergal O’Brien and Colin Tizzard also had quick starts. Between the four of them at Chepstow last year they had a level stakes profit of 43.01 pts on the opening fixture.

Just a small piece today for some early season jumps interest. If you are considering joining Proform, I believe they are running a 50% sign up offer at the moment. All the details can be found on their Twitter account.

http://www.proformracing.com

All the best

Mark

 

 

The final word on the Proform Speed Figures and month end results!

As I’m writing this on Sunday afternoon it would be rude not to start with a mention for Enable. She’s just won the Arc in a hack canter. She is some filly and has been an absolute pleasure to watch throughout the summer months. John Gosden’s handling of her has once again been absolutely exemplary.

So on to the main topic of this blog post as Septemeber has come to an end and I can asses the performance of the various systems that I have been closely monitoring using Proform. I should stress that if this is the first time you have stumbled across this blog, you should probably give the original post a quick gander. It can be found here:

https://mgsportsramblings.wordpress.com/2017/09/22/are-speed-figuresratings-profitable-lets-take-a-look-at-proform_racing/

So how did we do in September? Well first off the double top rated system, which is what is says on the tin. Top on the Proform power ratings and top on the LTO Proform speed ratings. This is a system which produces steady profits month on month and this is how it fared in Sept:

352 qualifying selections, 99 winners, 28.13% strike rate & +43.42pts with a 12.34% ROI.

A reminder that these figures are taken from the prices available the evening before racing and that is now 17 consecutive profitable months from the DTR system. 100% from when Proform started to collect the evening prices last May.

Right, that’s the housekeeping done, so what of the system that I put together using the LTO speed ratings from Proform. Another really good month and I have thoroughly enjoyed tracking all the runners and seeing how it pans out on a daily basis. A reminder that the system that I developed uses the horse that had the highest speed rating LTO in all handicaps on the flat. It then has several other parameters that will remain a secret whilst I continue to develop it. This is how we got on…

542 qualifying selections, 92 winners, 16.97% strike rate & +105.78pts with an ROI of 18.86%. (Profit to BFSP= +35.71 points).

So another brilliant month that now puts it +930.32 points in 2017. The 1000 point marker is firmly in sight. The major negative with the way this works is the sheer volume of selections that it throws up. Through September an average of 18 per day, but in reality in peak summer it is much higher than this.

The highlight of the month was Fire Leopard winning at 20/1 having absolutely cantered through the race from the rear of the field.

There are so many positives though and it is something that I am very much looking forward to monitoring over the coming months. The daily numbers for the system will drop off quite a bit over the winter months as the turf racing comes to an end.

Away from the two main projects I have also been working on about 5/6 other much smaller sample size systems that all show a nice profit over time. For the sake of future analysis I have grouped them all together to become a main “system” as such. They attack various elements of the game. I have already blogged about the Southwell one. I have also developed a lovely little program for some very profitable trainers that have horses returning after a break. I also stumbled across a nice little earner revolving around Godolphin horses. Another string to add to the bow revolves around using the Proform Power Ratings in certain national hunt races and to finish off certain trainers have an excellent record running their horses in maiden races on the flat.

So it seems it will be a very interesting few months following all of the above. The pace will drop for sure until the turf flat season gets into full swing again next spring. I will continue to give occasional updates on how all of it goes.

Happy punting

@markagrantham

 

As winter draws in, let’s tuck in to the good stuff! Southwell anyone?

Firstly thanks for all the feedback on last weeks blog post. It is great to see how many people are taking an interest in not only Proform but also the different approaches you can add to your betting portfolio. Things are going well again in September with winners up to 22/1 so far. The system had a good day on Monday throwing up winners at 9/4, 7/1 and 14/1 as well as a 10/1 winner on Tuesday. Having had a brief conversation with Simon on Friday I can confirm that using the evening before prices makes an enormous difference to the P&L. My estimation was nowhere near as much as reality. As I mentioned Simon only had the evening before prices back as far as May 2016, so for 17 months of data. Having shown a profit of 813.81 from 1st Jan 2010 on the figures I had, Simon confirmed that the actual evening before price profit since last year was +1432.56 which is staggering. There is obviously a deduction to come off this from rule 4’s but it is only minimal in reality. So as things stand, I’m hopefully on to something very interesting. I will continue to monitor this.

As I write this on Tuesday evening this month is currently +35.79 pts in profit. Although not following it as closely, I believe the DTR system is running at about the same sort of figure.

So what next? What’s the next angle to look at? Well given the time of the year and with the flat coming to an end, I thought that I’d have a look at the winter action but hold on, no I’m not like 90% of Twitter. I refuse to start talking about the Cheltenham Festival in September! Although having said that, I do plan to have a look at the festival stats at some point in the next week or two. If you know me well, you know that when it comes to the winter it is all about the all-weather Racing! To narrow my search down I am going to have a good look at Southwell which I’m sure there are a few angles.

So where to start with trying to find a profitable angle when it comes to betting at Southwell. Well my immediate thought is with my own involvement with horses at the track and pals horses that have been shrewdly purchased. We’ve had some wonderful success there, and a lot of it comes from the fact that we managed to get hold of horses that were by Speightstown. Southwell is our only track in the UK that comes close to replicating the conditions of dirt racing in the US and the progeny of Speightstown have an excellent record on the fibresand surface, especially first time up.

So this got me thinking, how do horses perform on the surface based on which country they are bred from. This was my first query into Proform, again using 1st Jan 2010 onwards. The results were as expected, lots of red numbers all over the screen apart from three countries that had the following numbers to BFSP:

France +102.60

Canada +10.73

USA + 649.01

On the back of these numbers I clustered these three countries together and had a look at plenty of the usual variables. Race distance, age etc. The only real variable that had a large impact on the numbers was the race type. Again, lots of red numbers all over the screen, but three very decent plus numbers as follows:

Auction Races: +131.72

Handicaps: +630.34

Maiden Races: +173.34

So once I drilled down all the variables these are the final figures that came out from my system builder results:

Horses from either USA, FRANCE or CANADA, in all AUCTIONS, MAIDENS & HANDICAPS at SOUTHWELL on the AW.

1706 Qualifiers, 292 winners @17.12% strike rate. +£765.48 to £1 at stakes at BFSP and a 44.87% ROI.

Whilst thinking that age and race distance may have an impact on the results, they made very little difference to the outcome.

All in all this equates to an average profit of 109.35pts per year. Which to many people will not seem like a great deal, but remember we are looking at putting together a portfolio of profitable systems that win without you having to do any kind of work other than updating the Proform software and putting the bets on. So this is another one to add to the portfolio and one that I will also monitor over the coming months.


Whilst looking at the above system my mind starting to think about another angle I constantly refer too. It largely comes from an old hunch I used to have that sprinters that ran well and turned up to the track again within a few days seemed to have a good record. Although I never actually had any stats to back this up, was it a myth or reality? So off I went again… searching through Proform System Builder looking for another angle.

My findings were not quite what I hoped but still showed a profitable angle. I basically looked at all horses from Jan 1st 2010 that had finished in the first three of their race and were running again within seven days. Across all racing this showed a very small profit. Once I started to play with all the variables again I managed to start to eek out the negative elements of another potential system.

In the end if you eliminated all races on the all-weather and concentrated solely on turf racing this improved things. Once again, then just using handicaps and removing all other races, the profit grew.

In the end these were the final figures I got too without too much effort since Jan 1st 2010:

12,452 qualifiers, 2,685 winners at a strike rate of 21.56%. +£344.45 to £1 stakes. +2.77% ROI. So this system whilst I think has some legs, doesn’t currently offer enough a profit for me to be interested in it. I will continue to tweek this until I find something more robust and at the moment can be parked on the “in progress” shelf. I also on the back of this started to play around with winners LTO that were returning to the track within seven days. It returned far less qualifiers obviously but very similar figures in the P&L, so this is another one that I will play around with over the coming months.

If anyone reading this has an idea they would like me to look at, I’m more than happy to delve in to the system builder and have a play around.

Hope some of this inspires you to start to have play with Proform yourself. If you have any questions or comments I’m always available on Twitter: @markagrantham. Roll on the fibresand season!

All the best

Mark

 

 

 

Are speed figures/ratings profitable? Let’s take a look at @Proform_racing

Proform

We hear about various forms of ratings on a daily basis in the pundit world. Racing Post Ratings, Timeform Ratings, Proform Power Ratings etc, but can we use any of these to make us some cash. Having had a few months away from the scene (working not jollying), I took some serious time to have a good look at the Proform Ratings to see if anything what I could uncover.

For those of you that are unfamiliar with Proform, it is just about the most in-depth piece of software available for racing fans. A full form book database that also provides its most valuable feature, the system builder.

Having been an avid user of Proform for some years, even I have barely scratched the surface with this weapon of mass destruction. For Proform subscribers, you will have heard Proform’s top man Simon Walton talking a bit about the DTR System. This is a system that highlights the “double top rated” on both power rating and speed figures. For 90% of people that will have an interest in this piece, this system is hard to run as it relies largely on having plenty of access to BOG bookmaker accounts. Something that has not been seen in these parts for a while. From the emails that Simon passed on, the figures surrounding the Proform Speed Figures really pricked my interest as they seemed to out perform the others by some way, so I spent many hours having a look at if I could eek out some profitability using them.

So as a base to my interest, I ran a system query on all the horses that were the TOP or JOINT TOP speed figure for every race in the UK & Ireland since 1st Jan 2010. Here is the result of that query…..

1. General Breakdwon

So the initial look shows that from 105,524 selections, we would have had 22,076 winners but would have done our conkers to the tune of -£825.07 to a £1 stake to BFSP. So clearly from the bottom line, backing all the TOP rated on speed figures would mean the day job continues.

So how can I break this down to see if there is anything we are missing. Next, I asked Proform to break these numbers down by RACE TYPE to see if any codes are better than others….

2. Race type

So from the breakdown of my second report, all of a sudden, maybe there is something to work with. Turf races since Jan 1st 2010 show a profit of £428.73 to £1 stakes to BFSP. At a nice tidy strike rate of 20.74%. All of the other codes show a significant loss. Now whilst this is certainly a step in the right direction, on average this equates to 61.24 points profit per year. So now it is time for me to concentrate solely on the turf figures and see if we can drill this down to improve the overall strike rate and more importantly. The P&L.

So what can we look at next? The variables are enormous. Ground, trip, race type, course…we could go on. So first stop here is to break all of the turf figures down by the classification of the races to see if we can grind out another angle. Here is what was returned….

Breakdown by race classification

So from the above image you can now start to draw more of a picture of where the main part of the profits are coming from. Whilst a few of these do tick over a small profit over the time, you can clearly see from this that HANDICAPS are a very profitable angle to work from. So let’s chuck everything else out and have a look at handicaps only and the bottom line that they produce.

Handicaps only botom line

So a profit of £487.34 to £1 at stakes to BFSP for all turf handicaps over the past seven years. Again though this does not really give us enough points profit for the amount of work you are going to have getting all these bets on each day. I hope at this point we are starting to build just how effective the Proform system builder can be. Now obviously when we get to this stage, I’m going to be a bit of a tease.I spent a lot of time on this and have found a breakdown that I’ve been following for a while now which is going really well. At the moment, it all goes into a spreadsheet every night is being monitored until the end of the year…

To give you and idea, I played around with the race classifications, race distance which was a big factor and ground conditions too. Once I nailed all this down to be the most efficient I could find it this is what I managed to get the final “system” to produce.

final

So I’ve managed to almost double the profit to BFSP by playing around with the huge number of variables available on the Proform System Builder. Winners from odds on right the way through to 40/1. What do these figures mean and how do with improve them even more?

Take Hugh Taylor as an example. A fantastic race reader and tipster for Attheraces. I dread to think how many hours a week, Hugh spends watching racing, making notes and assembling his list of horses for potential future bets. As I’ve already mentioned Hugh averages about 206 points profit per year just on his ATR selections. My botched up system above is averaging 116.25 points profit over the last seven years. One thing that will hopefully be a new addition to the software is that evening price figure that Simon has been working with for about 18 months now. By backing all of the system qualifiers the night before ( I normally look at about 7pm) your profit on the above figures at an estimate would at least double. The amount of Proform Top Speed Figure horses that shorten in the market over night are phenomenal. Whilst I have only been collecting these figures on the evening prices for 5 weeks or so, Simon’s figures from the last 18 months more than back this up.

My rough estimation from the evening prices over the same period would suggest that my drilled down system would be approximately 2000 points in profit (285 per year). I will of course each month, give an update on here so anyone that is interested can see how it develops. So far to date in September we are +47.79 points before Friday’s racing. The great thing about Proform is that once your system parameters are saved, the software automatically alerts you of all the qualifiers on the home screen, making placing your bets very easy. They are just as easily copied into spreadsheets too.

The biggest draw down to this system is that you obviously need access plenty of BOG bookmaker accounts too take advantage of the evening before prices. Given the plethora of accounts available, you should have absolutely no problem following this type of system for some time before you run out of options… and as a last resort, it is still very profitable to Betfair SP.

If you have not seen Proform before, check out the website:

http://www.proformracing.com

Hope this has given you some food for thought on finding some winners based purely on statistics.

Happy punting

MG

Proform