Evening all. Apologies for the lack of posting recently. Life has been hectic as I’m working hard to build up my freelance duties. I just wanted to write a quick note to thank everyone for the kind messages about the NHL bets. With the Washington Capitals putting up a terrific road performance in Tampa in game 7 last night we have managed to secure both teams in the Stanley Cup Finals.
Vegas at 33/1 (1pt) and Washington 16/1 (2pts) means we are guaranteed a lovely payday. It should be a terrific series and all the more enjoyable having backed both at Christmas. This is another example of the US sports markets that are largely left untouched by the books until past the mid season point (with the exception of the NFL). With the earlier divisional bets already winners we have a guaranteed 41pts profit from the ante-post bets.
There will be some racing blogs on the horizon. The systems analysis went through a brutal period due to the weather in the first quarter of the year. Now the flat is back it has all returned to normal and I will touch on those a bit more over the coming weeks.
Enjoy the rest of the hockey, and alas…. the NFL is only just over 3 months away!!
All the best
Just thought I would put down a few words as it’s been a while. Firstly thanks for the NHL messages and well done to everyone that backed the divisional bets. For those that missed them, we had 15 points worth of bets at the mid-season point.
Vegas to win the Pacific (2pts @ 7/2) WON +7
Washington to win the Metropolitan (2pts @ 7/2) WON +7
Nashville to win the central (5pts @2/1) WON +10
So we are already 9pts in profit with the outright bets still going. Which are as follows:
Vegas 33/1 now general 8/1
New Jersey 30/1 now general 25’s (will be much shorter if they manage to upset no.1 seeds Tampa in first round of the playoffs).
Washington Capitals (2pts @ 16’s) now general 10’s.
Boston Bruins 33/1 now 6/1 2nd favs.
So we have four lively darts at the jackpot with profit already pocketed. Hopefully at least three of these will get through the first round and we should have great darts at the QF’s.
On the racing front it has been a stupid run. I just cannot remember in my lifetime a sustained period like we are experiencing of bad weather and terrible ground. Speed figures have largely been useless since the turn of the year.
I’ve been chomping at the bit to be running my turf flat season data but the weather has cost us all meetings worth of note so far. I very much doubt I will start them properly until May now. Of all the Proform systems that I’ve developed the Power Ratings System continues to go really well. After finishing 2017 +791.50 pts it is already +114 pts to the good so far in 2018. It is proving to be very reliable indeed. This system has been made available to Proform Platinum subscribers in the new Whatsapp group that has loads of development ideas.
I have been working on a host of new ideas too, some for myself and some for others. One thing to keep your eye on for the time being is horses running second time after a wind op. This is about +50pts so far and is being monitored.
It looks like in the next week or so the weather will finally turn. I’m sure it will take a few weeks for the form to start to settle down but we will soon be up and running.
I’ll be back with more soon.
Afternoon one and all, I hope this blog entry finds you all well after the festive season. Happy new year to everyone. In the words of John Lennon Let’s hope it’s a good one, without any fear.
So in 2017 I had a good look at various aspects of trying to win without thinking using the data we get from Proform. As mentioned many times before the DTR system put together by Proform continues to work very well. The speed figure systems that were on previous blogs also continue to perform, although they are certainly more effective on the turf than the all-weather. On the back of previous posts I got a lot of feedback and messages revolving around the issue of backing them all with bookmakers that provide best odds guaranteed, the difficulty of getting on, and if there are angles to look at for Betfair SP, thus making it much easier for people to get on. So today I thought I would have a good look at the POWER RATINGS and see if there are any smaller angles we can find simply revolving around them and how we can try to making a profit simply from using Betfair SP that can add a bit more in the way of the profit column.
So first things first let’s run the system builder and get the results of the top power rated horse in all races since January 1st 2011……
So as you can see, backing them blind over the course of the last 6 years would not have been a sharp route to the Bahamas. Over 2341 pts lost to BFSP over the period. Just to get absolute clarity and a clearer picture I’ll break down those results and present them year by year….
So quite clearly you get a fairly consistent strike rate in and around 25% but a healthy loss to go with it to Betfair SP. So just like on previous efforts how can we now break this down to try to find an angle or two to turn those negative results in to positives? Let’s start by having a look at all of the same results but this time around I will break them down by their different race types. Maybe they are more profitable on the flat than jumps etc. Here is what we get…..
The first thing to obviously notice is that bumpers have a much better performance than anything else, clearly 94 points profit over the span of 6 years is not going to get the juices flowing though. That is a topic that I will almost certainly touch on in the near future as there are definitely some angles to be exploited in bumpers. Largely though, this breakdown doesn’t tell us an awful lot more. Mostly negative figures, especially on the turf, which is completely the opposite to looking at the speed figures. Before I try some other things just to get a bit more clarity, I want to run the same report again but this time I want to look at the different race classifications, just to make a mental note of any particular races that the Power Ratings are very strong in. Here is what we got…
Making some notes from what we get here you can see that races at the highest level seem to do pretty well. So grade 1-3 and group 1-3. That is fairly obvious, the top rated in the highest level contests tend to be the best horses in training and should produce a high strike rate. I will write a separate blog post on this area at another time as we approach the flat season. So to sum up at this stage there are no glaring angles to producing a high profit return, so it’s time to start thinking slightly out of the box. What can I change, or look at that may increase the profitability of those Power Ratings.
So what is the most common thing we hear across the world of social media when it comes to making a long-term profit from your betting? That’s right, VALUE. What happens if we look at horses that are top rated, but the market underestimates their chance? Surely this provides us with some value if the horse is top rated but the market has them at a big price? Bearing in mind that the overall loss on all the runners was -2341.60 pts, I started to run the reports in stages to see how the profit and loss reacted to gradually increasing the SP of the top rated horse. Here is what happened…..
The above represents all top rated with an SP of larger than 3/1.
This one represents all top rated with an SP of larger than 5/1. Starting to get the feeling this is going somewhere as that negative figure is getting smaller and smaller.
We move on to an SP of 8/1 and above. Only minus 62, so we are getting ever closer to a profit.
Ta da!!!! We’ve made it to some profit. 10/1 and above. A profit of 560.77 across the 6 years gives us an average of 93.46 pts per year. Whilst this is not a huge amount, it is another positive figure to add to the overall figures from your statistical betting. Clearly this is a system that will not suit a lot of punters. It has a very low strike rate of just under 6% and a lot of patience will be needed. Having said that, patience will provide some rewards, it only provides approximately 3 selections per day. 12th February 2011, What A Warrior won at Warwick as the top rated at a Betfair SP of 126.98.
Before I closed the book on this I wanted to have one last look, and this time taking those positive figures from above and once again having a quick look at the results through their race type just to make sure there isn’t something I’m missing.
You can see that chases have a negative impact on the results and that if you put a line through jumps racing and just ran this on the flat, all-weather and in bumpers, you would increase your profitability once again.
The big downside to this approach is that it works off SP. Clearly at 8am when we may be placing our bets, you have no idea what the SP will be, so to give it a very accurate reflection, you would need quite a hands on approach and placing your SP bets close to off time. I’m pretty sure that if you use the overnight prices as a guide and place BFSP bets on anything that is 10/1 or bigger at 8am for instance. This will still show a very similar profit level. If you have the luxury of BOG accounts, then this system again is fairly simple to operate. 93 pts a year is certainly not life changing, but when you add it to the portfolio we have already to started to build, it is more money in the profit column. I hope you have found this mildly interesting again. If you haven’t yet stumbled across Proform before, feel free to click on the image below which will take you directly to the website, where you can find all the information you need. I will be back in the next few weeks with another piece on yet more Proform angles. Happy punting!
All the best
Morning all. It has been an interesting few days across all sports. Well done to those of you that backed Native Robin the other day, he was so weak in the betting throughout the day, but the result was never really in any doubt. He absolutely tanked through the race and could have been called the winner a long way out. The SP of 11/1 (16 BFSP) was a decent touch for those of you with BOG.
On the NHL front, good to see Vegas and Boston continue to win and contract in price. Some of the bookmakers reacted to the bets and prices from the other day, some are still sleeping. Hills cut Boston from 33/1 into 14’s within a day or so. They were mightily impressive again last night winning 5-1 on the road in New York.
Trainers with runners today that have a win and place strike rate of above 50% in the last 10 days:
Nick Williams 75%
Warren Greatrex 72.73%
Kim Bailey 63.64%
Donald McCain 52%
Tim Easterby 50%
A couple of eye catchers worth noting going today. CRITICAL THINKING (7.10) would have gone very close to winning last time had he not got caught out off a slow pace. He’s well handicapped on his old form. Back up in trip with Cameron Noble claiming 3lbs off his back, he looks a cracking bet today at about 9/2. I have had a small saver on SANAM in the same race who could be absolutely lobbed in on his first handicap start for Ed Dunlop.
At Southwell today there are a few speculative wagers to look out for too. In the 1.10 FABELLA BERE steps up in trip. She got outpaced and plugged on last time over a mile. She is bred to like the surface and the slower tempo today might find her in the mix. She’s about 20’s on Betfair. Later on in the final race (3.40) the two complete outsiders MINING ROCKS and GONEWITHTHEWIND are both of the smallest interest. Mining Rocks has never been here before and is bred to appreciate the surface. He’s on a tumbling mark and another 7lbs is taken off by the young rider. Gonewiththewind has dropped to a career low mark, the rider takes off another 3lbs, he’s down in grade. They are 34’s and 60’s on the machine, so I’ll be having small plays at those prices with slightly better interests in the place markets.
Good luck today.
Evening all. Having had a good delve in to the racing on the final day of 2017, I have come across one or two that are worth throwing a couple of quid at.
First up I’ll give you some latest Proform Stats that could help with your punting today.
Trainers In Form:
Trainers with a win & pl strike rate of over 50% over the last 10 days.
Nick Williams 85.71%
Mark Johnston 80%
Michael Easterby 66.67%
T Lacey 66.67%
John Butler 60%
Robert Stephens 60 %
Kim Bailey 57.14%
Jennie Candlish 54.55%
Simon Dow 50%
C Byrnes 50%
NATIVE ROBIN (2.35 Warwick) caught the eye and went in the horse watcher on the back of his run at Exeter a month ago. He’s been out of sorts since his return to the track after 18 months on the side lines but at Exeter showed a bit more when getting outpaced over a trip short of his best, before running on a bit once beaten. He’s been dropped another 3lbs for that so is now 6lbs lower than his last winning mark. Add into the mix going back up in trip and a drop in grade back to a 0-105 and he looks an interesting contender. If he’s come on for those two runs he’s a decent bet.
On the opening shows he is available at 6/1 general. 2 pts win.
ADMIRAL BLAKE (3.00 UTTOX) is another well handicapped beast that should be monitored in the betting. Testing conditions are no problem for him and his run in what turned out to be a betting farce at Exeter last time should not be underestimated. Although beaten a long way he plugged on ok at a trip short of his best. Having won at the turn of the year off 75 & 82 a couple of years ago, he should be very capable back down to this basement mark. James Best takes back over in the saddle and he gets in this race off a lovely racing weight of 10 stone. Not beyond the realm of possibility that he returns to some form here.
At 16/1 (Bet365) he is definitely worth having a point each way.
Nap of the day though without doubt has to be MYSTIQUE MOON (1.45 Lingfield). The son of Shamardal has won two of his three starts so far, only losing out to another rapidly progressive Godolphin inmate last time out at Chelmsford. He’s been raised 9lbs for being beaten last time but that race is full of decent form. His successor Arabian Hope won the Ganton Stakes (Listed) at York. Native Soldier won off 75 and Ebbesbourne won off 80. Whilst plenty of these are on the way down, Mystique Moon is still on the up and can take this with a view to being back here on Good Friday. Alfred Hutchinson is well handicapped and likes it here so should be a danger and monitor the run of Cherbourg. Out of the weights here, but may end up better than this mark at some point in the near future.
Opened at 11/4 tonight with Bet365. I’d be surprised if he was better than 6/4 at the off. 3 pts win @ 2/1 general price.
Will update any others later.
Seasons greetings and all. I trust you have had a wonderful festive period and you are looking forward to the new gym membership in the new year! With racing at its quietest point of the year for me personally I have taken the last day or so to go through the markets in the other sports that I have a long-term interest in. The turn of the year is always a decent time to look at the NHL as we are pretty much at the mid-season point and there are always a few ricks from the books as they are fairly lazy about the prices as they really don’t see much long-term money for them. I have managed to find a few that are of definite interest and hopefully you can get a few shillings on before they cut them.
I will apologise in advance for the first one as I’m not sure how much you will really be able to get on but the biggest mistake in the outright market is for the VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS who are currently 33/1 with 188Bet. They are also the wrong price to win their division but I’ll get to that in a moment.
A brand new franchise this year, they recruited very well. Shot data is excellent and they have been imperious at home. The Golden Knights currently have the 2nd best record in the league, lead the Western Conference and therefore should not be anywhere near 33/1. They are generally around a 16/1 chance which is more in line with their actual price (although I think that is still on the high side). As I said, I don’t what you will get on but the 33/1 should be taken before it disappears. Please have some on for me too whilst you’re at it!!
The Vegas lads should also be backed to win their division with Coral/Ladbrokes at 7/2. I struggle to see both Anaheim and San Jose making up the ground on LA and Vegas. I have it as a two runner affair, therefore the 7/2 looks a good bet as in reality they should be around 2/1.
Second error on the outright market are the vastly improved NEW JERSEY DEVILS. Second in the Eastern Conference and with a 22-9-5 record, the Devils are starting to roll. Most firms have wised to it but 888 sport and Unibet are both 30/1. That is too big for a team of their quality.
Teams improving at a rate of knots are always dangerous when it comes to the back-end of the season and there are two to keep an eye on. The Washington Capitals are post season regulars and have looked much better over the last month or so. They are 16/1 with Boylesports in the outright market and that is another price to be interested in. They are 7/2 to win the Metropolitan Division and I’d be looking to get heavily involved in that price if it wasn’t for the Devils being in there too (5/1). Split stakes on the two would not be your worst bet of 2017.
The other one, and this is not biased in any way is the Boston Bruins. The B’s are hot going 8-1-1 in their last ten and seem to have finally shaken the TD Garden voodoo with a much better home record this year. Boston’s youngsters have added some real depth and whilst they cannot catch Tampa for the division, William Hill’s view that they are a 33/1 shot to go all the way is wrong.
Finally I’ll finish with my main bet, and that is the NASHVILLE PREDATORS to win the Central Division at 2/1 with Bet365. I won’t go in-depth other than to say I think they are the best team in that division and having played fewer games than the chasing pack, I think they are going to be very hard to knock off the top. They are about a 5/4 shot so the 2/1 is a nice price.
Vegas Golden Knights (*what you can at 33/1)
New Jersey Devils – 1pt @ 30/1
Washington Capitals – 2pts @ 16/1
Boston Bruins – 1 pt @33/1
Whilst this is 3/1 Eastern Conference heavy, you could add Nashville if you wanted to be evenly split.
Vegas (Pacific) – 2pts @ 7/2
Washington/NJ (Metropolitan) 2 pts Wash @ 7/2 (Lads/Coral) 1 pt NJ @ 5/1 general.
Nashville (Central) 5 pts win @ 2/1.
15 pts outlay.
Hopefully these will give you plenty of fun across the remainder of the season, and more importantly some decent profit.
All the best
Evening all. I’d like to start this post off with a little moan about pubs. My parents live in the wonderful small seaside village of Rottingdean down in Sussex. My old man, myself and my brothers all play or have played for the village cricket club at some point through our lives. It’s a wonderful part of the world, but what the hell are the pub landlords playing at? Five pubs all within 200 yards of each other on the high street. Every single one of them has removed their dart boards off the wall. FFS? Must be because they are over flowing with high-end gourmet food customers eh…………………… oh?
Moving on and time to address the multiple in boxes I’ve been getting in regards to the previous posts about the stats betting. The overall line for you all at this point that it continues to prove very profitable indeed. Over the last three-four months or so I have continued to develop several systems that do very well over a substantial period.
I understand that for many of you reading this blog, you will dismiss it immediately. I mean betting on racing purely based on stats? Doesn’t that take away most of the fun of the chase of trying to find that elusive winner? On the other hand the majority will also be people who on the whole; lose from their betting. There are plenty of people who don’t have the attention to detail, skill or indeed the time to be able to find the required angles on a day-to-day basis to find enough winners to make a profit. 95% of twitter are winners, but 99% of punters are losers. You do the maths. The number of people who contacted me on the back of those previous posts shows that there is certainly an interest in that style of betting.
To recap I basically have developed three different strategies. The first one is a take on the Proform Racing DTR (double top rated) system. The basis of it is exactly the same. To be a qualifying selection the horse in question must be top on both the Proform Power Ratings and the LTO Speed Figure. Once this is established the horse must then go through some other parameters to whittle it down. Since the figures for this system began it has NEVER had a losing month. As explained in previous posts, this system relies on being able to back the selections the evening before racing, so bookmaker BOG accounts are needed to make this tick.
Exactly the same is said for system number two. This revolves all around the LTO Speed figures from Proform. I work strictly in handicaps and the selections have to go through several criteria analysis before they are confirmed. Again, BOG accounts are essential for this system to maximise the profits, although it is also very profitable to Betfair SP so this can be run by anyone without being shut down. Backing these the night before however gives approximately a 33% increase to the P&L.
The third system I follow is a combination of about ten mini systems that all show really nice tidy profits over the space of the past five years. I call it the STATBUNDLE. These systems have lots of different angles all together. Everything from sire stats, horses for courses, trainers that do very well first time in handicaps in certain race types, all-weather specialists, track specialist, trainers off a break and so on. It is very varied and really fun to follow. In November alone the pack has produced winners at 66/1 (Betfair SP of 191) and 33/1. It’s taken plenty of time to put all these together but it has also been a lot of fun.
I won’t break it all down completely but I will give you a rough guide as to the three different systems have fared so far in 2017.
THE DTR SYSTEM WITH A TWIST
10/10 winning months in 2017
THE SPEED FIGURES SYSTEM
7/10 winning months in 2017
THE STAT BUNDLE
9/10 winning months in 2017
So you can see that if you had followed all of the above to 1pt stakes over the course of the year you would have made 1,582 pts. So whilst stat based betting might not be everyone’s cup of tea, it certainly seems to be profitable over time if you put the effort in. What is important from the above figures is that the speed figures system and the stat bundle are all calculated to Betfair SP. So they can be operated by anyone without losing any accounts.
For those of you that have already been in touch and for anyone interested in following these systems, please feel free to follow me on Twitter: @markagrantham
For now though, happy punting!
All the best
Evening one and all. Hope this post finds everyone well and full of winners. An interesting week in the racing world with nothing much happening in terms of major news, other than Aidan O’Brien getting ever closer to Bobby Frankel’s record for group one winners. Enable will also stay in training at four, which is fantastic news. Longchamp anyone?
My one note from the action the past week or so would be that I’ve convinced myself that Clemmie is now the real deal. Given her pedigree she is surely going to improve for going up in trip and is very exciting. Whether she goes on to win the Guineas next spring is something we have to wait seven months to find out. One thing I’m pretty sure of though is if she doesn’t run again this season and she turns up at Newmarket in May, she’ll be 6/4 on the day, so if you like long-term investments, the 4/1 around is probably for you.
For those of you that follow my ante-post NFL prop bets it was great to see Leonard Fournette have a big weekend. Through five weeks he now has 466 yards and the each way money at 40/1 for leading rusher is definitely a live voucher. Whilst I still have him outside the top three, the way the Jag’s D keeps them in games, their run first nature can only assist in the rookie having a big first season. Let’s hope he stays healthy.
Right so this week, with little time on my hands I wanted to take a slightly different approach and just see if I could find a little nugget for the upcoming jumps season. I started off playing around with the Proform system builder and looking at the fate of favourites and horses at the front of the market to see if I could see any glaring angles.
Not an awful lot showed up, other than similarly to the flat, there are a handful of tracks where favourites have an excellent record. So I changed tack slightly and given we are at the start of the season I started to look at trainers that have their horses in good nick on the back of a break. So I ran a query in to Proform looking at all trainers performance in National Hunt races (chase, hurdle & NHF) on the back of a minimum 60 day break. This threw up plenty of profitable trainers but almost of them were on the back of the odd massive priced winner that skewed the P&L figures.
So again a bit of trimming down and I decided to limit the next search to handicaps only and now we start to pick up one or two potential angles. Five trainers stood out with exceptional strike rates and a lovely healthy profit. I won’t mention them all but I’ll certainly give a positive mention to Olly Murphy who has had a terrific start to his training career in 2017.
From the above criteria, Olly has had 12 runners and 4 winners. So as the winter progresses, he is certainly someone to keep an eye on.
The trainer that stood out above everyone else though was the excellent KEITH DALGLEISH. These figures are represented as always from Jan 1st 2010.
Keith has had just 26 runners in handicaps chases/hurdles in that time on the back of 60+ days off the track, of which 13 have gone on to win with a profit of 41.26pts to BFSP. That is a 50% winning strike rate. What is just as interesting about these figures is that of the 13 that got beat, 9 of those traded at 50% or less of their BFSP in running. So there is no doubt at all that Keith has his horses bouncing and ready to roll in the national hunt season on the back of a break in handicaps. Certainly an interesting angle for all of you that like to trade pre-race or in running.
One thing I would add in to the argument is that all of the winners were priced between 6/4 and 8/1 which would suggest that they were well fancied too. If we run the system again looking at his runners that had an SP of less than 9/1, suddenly the strike rate leaps to 72.22% (83.33% win & place). A total of 13 winners from 18 runners.
So whilst it’s short and sweet this week, and won’t throw up that many selections. When Keith Dalgleish has a runner in a handicap hurdle or chase on the back of a minimum 60 day break and is a single figure price, you should probably have it on side.
I’m open to any kind of suggestion for something to look at for next week. Feel free to post in the comments and I will take a look.
Have a top week. Thank god the international break is over!