Proform Power Ratings Profits? Can It Be Done?

Afternoon one and all, I hope this blog entry finds you all well after the festive season. Happy new year to everyone. In the words of John Lennon Let’s hope it’s a good one, without any fear.

So in 2017 I had a good look at various aspects of trying to win without thinking using the data we get from Proform. As mentioned many times before the DTR system put together by Proform continues to work very well. The speed figure systems that were on previous blogs also continue to perform, although they are certainly more effective on the turf than the all-weather. On the back of previous posts I got a lot of feedback and messages revolving around the issue of backing them all with bookmakers that provide best odds guaranteed, the difficulty of getting on, and if there are angles to look at for Betfair SP, thus making it much easier for people to get on. So today I thought I would have a good look at the POWER RATINGS and see if there are any smaller angles we can find simply revolving around them and how we can try to making a profit simply from using Betfair SP that can add a bit more in the way of the profit column.

So first things first let’s run the system builder and get the results of the top power rated horse in all races since January 1st 2011……

 

So as you can see, backing them blind over the course of the last 6 years would not have been a sharp route to the Bahamas. Over 2341 pts lost to BFSP over the period.  Just to get absolute clarity and a clearer picture I’ll break down those results and present them year by year….

 

So quite clearly you get a fairly consistent strike rate in and around 25% but a healthy loss to go with it to Betfair SP. So just like on previous efforts how can we now break this down to try to find an angle or two to turn those negative results in to positives? Let’s start by having a look at all of the same results but this time around I will break them down by their different race types. Maybe they are more profitable on the flat than jumps etc. Here is what we get…..

 

The first thing to obviously notice is that bumpers have a much better performance than anything else, clearly 94 points profit over the span of 6 years is not going to get the juices flowing though. That is a topic that I will almost certainly touch on in the near future as there are definitely some angles to be exploited in bumpers. Largely though, this breakdown doesn’t tell us an awful lot more. Mostly negative figures, especially on the turf, which is completely the opposite to looking at the speed figures. Before I try some other things just to get a bit more clarity, I want to run the same report again but this time I want to look at the different race classifications, just to make a mental note of any particular races that the Power Ratings are very strong in. Here is what we got…

 

Making some notes from what we get here you can see that races at the highest level seem to do pretty well. So grade 1-3 and group 1-3. That is fairly obvious, the top rated in the highest level contests tend to be the best horses in training and should produce a high strike rate. I will write a separate blog post on this area at another time as we approach the flat season. So to sum up at this stage there are no glaring angles to producing a high profit return, so it’s time to start thinking slightly out of the box. What can I change, or look at that may increase the profitability of those Power Ratings.

So what is the most common thing we hear across the world of social media when it comes to making a long-term profit from your betting? That’s right, VALUE. What happens if we look at horses that are top rated, but the market underestimates their chance? Surely this provides us with some value if the horse is top rated but the market has them at a big price? Bearing in mind that the overall loss on all the runners was -2341.60 pts, I started to run the reports in stages to see how the profit and loss reacted to gradually increasing the SP of the top rated horse. Here is what happened…..

The above represents all top rated with an SP of larger than 3/1.

This one represents all top rated with an SP of larger than 5/1. Starting to get the feeling this is going somewhere as that negative figure is getting smaller and smaller.

We move on to an SP of 8/1 and above. Only minus 62, so we are getting ever closer to a profit.

Ta da!!!!  We’ve made it to some profit. 10/1 and above.  A profit of 560.77 across the 6 years gives us an average of 93.46 pts per year. Whilst this is not a huge amount, it is another positive figure to add to the overall figures from your statistical betting. Clearly this is a system that will not suit a lot of punters. It has a very low strike rate of just under 6% and a lot of patience will be needed. Having said that, patience will provide some rewards, it only provides approximately 3 selections per day. 12th February 2011, What A Warrior won at Warwick as the top rated at a Betfair SP of 126.98.

Before I closed the book on this I wanted to have one last look, and this time taking those positive figures from above and once again having a quick look at the results through their race type just to make sure there isn’t something I’m missing.

You can see that chases have a negative impact on the results and that if you put a line through jumps racing and just ran this on the flat, all-weather and in bumpers, you would increase your profitability once again.

The big downside to this approach is that it works off SP. Clearly at 8am when we may be placing our bets, you have no idea what the SP will be, so to give it a very accurate reflection, you would need quite a hands on approach and placing your SP bets close to off time. I’m pretty sure that if you use the overnight prices as a guide and place BFSP bets on anything that is 10/1 or bigger at 8am for instance. This will still show a very similar profit level. If you have the luxury of BOG accounts, then this system again is fairly simple to operate. 93 pts a year is certainly not life changing, but when you add it to the portfolio we have already to started to build, it is more money in the profit column. I hope you have found this mildly interesting again. If you haven’t yet stumbled across Proform before, feel free to click on the image below which will take you directly to the website, where you can find all the information you need.  I will be back in the next few weeks with another piece on yet more Proform angles. Happy punting!

All the best

MG

 

 

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As winter draws in, let’s tuck in to the good stuff! Southwell anyone?

Firstly thanks for all the feedback on last weeks blog post. It is great to see how many people are taking an interest in not only Proform but also the different approaches you can add to your betting portfolio. Things are going well again in September with winners up to 22/1 so far. The system had a good day on Monday throwing up winners at 9/4, 7/1 and 14/1 as well as a 10/1 winner on Tuesday. Having had a brief conversation with Simon on Friday I can confirm that using the evening before prices makes an enormous difference to the P&L. My estimation was nowhere near as much as reality. As I mentioned Simon only had the evening before prices back as far as May 2016, so for 17 months of data. Having shown a profit of 813.81 from 1st Jan 2010 on the figures I had, Simon confirmed that the actual evening before price profit since last year was +1432.56 which is staggering. There is obviously a deduction to come off this from rule 4’s but it is only minimal in reality. So as things stand, I’m hopefully on to something very interesting. I will continue to monitor this.

As I write this on Tuesday evening this month is currently +35.79 pts in profit. Although not following it as closely, I believe the DTR system is running at about the same sort of figure.

So what next? What’s the next angle to look at? Well given the time of the year and with the flat coming to an end, I thought that I’d have a look at the winter action but hold on, no I’m not like 90% of Twitter. I refuse to start talking about the Cheltenham Festival in September! Although having said that, I do plan to have a look at the festival stats at some point in the next week or two. If you know me well, you know that when it comes to the winter it is all about the all-weather Racing! To narrow my search down I am going to have a good look at Southwell which I’m sure there are a few angles.

So where to start with trying to find a profitable angle when it comes to betting at Southwell. Well my immediate thought is with my own involvement with horses at the track and pals horses that have been shrewdly purchased. We’ve had some wonderful success there, and a lot of it comes from the fact that we managed to get hold of horses that were by Speightstown. Southwell is our only track in the UK that comes close to replicating the conditions of dirt racing in the US and the progeny of Speightstown have an excellent record on the fibresand surface, especially first time up.

So this got me thinking, how do horses perform on the surface based on which country they are bred from. This was my first query into Proform, again using 1st Jan 2010 onwards. The results were as expected, lots of red numbers all over the screen apart from three countries that had the following numbers to BFSP:

France +102.60

Canada +10.73

USA + 649.01

On the back of these numbers I clustered these three countries together and had a look at plenty of the usual variables. Race distance, age etc. The only real variable that had a large impact on the numbers was the race type. Again, lots of red numbers all over the screen, but three very decent plus numbers as follows:

Auction Races: +131.72

Handicaps: +630.34

Maiden Races: +173.34

So once I drilled down all the variables these are the final figures that came out from my system builder results:

Horses from either USA, FRANCE or CANADA, in all AUCTIONS, MAIDENS & HANDICAPS at SOUTHWELL on the AW.

1706 Qualifiers, 292 winners @17.12% strike rate. +£765.48 to £1 at stakes at BFSP and a 44.87% ROI.

Whilst thinking that age and race distance may have an impact on the results, they made very little difference to the outcome.

All in all this equates to an average profit of 109.35pts per year. Which to many people will not seem like a great deal, but remember we are looking at putting together a portfolio of profitable systems that win without you having to do any kind of work other than updating the Proform software and putting the bets on. So this is another one to add to the portfolio and one that I will also monitor over the coming months.


Whilst looking at the above system my mind starting to think about another angle I constantly refer too. It largely comes from an old hunch I used to have that sprinters that ran well and turned up to the track again within a few days seemed to have a good record. Although I never actually had any stats to back this up, was it a myth or reality? So off I went again… searching through Proform System Builder looking for another angle.

My findings were not quite what I hoped but still showed a profitable angle. I basically looked at all horses from Jan 1st 2010 that had finished in the first three of their race and were running again within seven days. Across all racing this showed a very small profit. Once I started to play with all the variables again I managed to start to eek out the negative elements of another potential system.

In the end if you eliminated all races on the all-weather and concentrated solely on turf racing this improved things. Once again, then just using handicaps and removing all other races, the profit grew.

In the end these were the final figures I got too without too much effort since Jan 1st 2010:

12,452 qualifiers, 2,685 winners at a strike rate of 21.56%. +£344.45 to £1 stakes. +2.77% ROI. So this system whilst I think has some legs, doesn’t currently offer enough a profit for me to be interested in it. I will continue to tweek this until I find something more robust and at the moment can be parked on the “in progress” shelf. I also on the back of this started to play around with winners LTO that were returning to the track within seven days. It returned far less qualifiers obviously but very similar figures in the P&L, so this is another one that I will play around with over the coming months.

If anyone reading this has an idea they would like me to look at, I’m more than happy to delve in to the system builder and have a play around.

Hope some of this inspires you to start to have play with Proform yourself. If you have any questions or comments I’m always available on Twitter: @markagrantham. Roll on the fibresand season!

All the best

Mark

 

 

 

Are speed figures/ratings profitable? Let’s take a look at @Proform_racing

Proform

We hear about various forms of ratings on a daily basis in the pundit world. Racing Post Ratings, Timeform Ratings, Proform Power Ratings etc, but can we use any of these to make us some cash. Having had a few months away from the scene (working not jollying), I took some serious time to have a good look at the Proform Ratings to see if anything what I could uncover.

For those of you that are unfamiliar with Proform, it is just about the most in-depth piece of software available for racing fans. A full form book database that also provides its most valuable feature, the system builder.

Having been an avid user of Proform for some years, even I have barely scratched the surface with this weapon of mass destruction. For Proform subscribers, you will have heard Proform’s top man Simon Walton talking a bit about the DTR System. This is a system that highlights the “double top rated” on both power rating and speed figures. For 90% of people that will have an interest in this piece, this system is hard to run as it relies largely on having plenty of access to BOG bookmaker accounts. Something that has not been seen in these parts for a while. From the emails that Simon passed on, the figures surrounding the Proform Speed Figures really pricked my interest as they seemed to out perform the others by some way, so I spent many hours having a look at if I could eek out some profitability using them.

So as a base to my interest, I ran a system query on all the horses that were the TOP or JOINT TOP speed figure for every race in the UK & Ireland since 1st Jan 2010. Here is the result of that query…..

1. General Breakdwon

So the initial look shows that from 105,524 selections, we would have had 22,076 winners but would have done our conkers to the tune of -£825.07 to a £1 stake to BFSP. So clearly from the bottom line, backing all the TOP rated on speed figures would mean the day job continues.

So how can I break this down to see if there is anything we are missing. Next, I asked Proform to break these numbers down by RACE TYPE to see if any codes are better than others….

2. Race type

So from the breakdown of my second report, all of a sudden, maybe there is something to work with. Turf races since Jan 1st 2010 show a profit of £428.73 to £1 stakes to BFSP. At a nice tidy strike rate of 20.74%. All of the other codes show a significant loss. Now whilst this is certainly a step in the right direction, on average this equates to 61.24 points profit per year. So now it is time for me to concentrate solely on the turf figures and see if we can drill this down to improve the overall strike rate and more importantly. The P&L.

So what can we look at next? The variables are enormous. Ground, trip, race type, course…we could go on. So first stop here is to break all of the turf figures down by the classification of the races to see if we can grind out another angle. Here is what was returned….

Breakdown by race classification

So from the above image you can now start to draw more of a picture of where the main part of the profits are coming from. Whilst a few of these do tick over a small profit over the time, you can clearly see from this that HANDICAPS are a very profitable angle to work from. So let’s chuck everything else out and have a look at handicaps only and the bottom line that they produce.

Handicaps only botom line

So a profit of £487.34 to £1 at stakes to BFSP for all turf handicaps over the past seven years. Again though this does not really give us enough points profit for the amount of work you are going to have getting all these bets on each day. I hope at this point we are starting to build just how effective the Proform system builder can be. Now obviously when we get to this stage, I’m going to be a bit of a tease.I spent a lot of time on this and have found a breakdown that I’ve been following for a while now which is going really well. At the moment, it all goes into a spreadsheet every night is being monitored until the end of the year…

To give you and idea, I played around with the race classifications, race distance which was a big factor and ground conditions too. Once I nailed all this down to be the most efficient I could find it this is what I managed to get the final “system” to produce.

final

So I’ve managed to almost double the profit to BFSP by playing around with the huge number of variables available on the Proform System Builder. Winners from odds on right the way through to 40/1. What do these figures mean and how do with improve them even more?

Take Hugh Taylor as an example. A fantastic race reader and tipster for Attheraces. I dread to think how many hours a week, Hugh spends watching racing, making notes and assembling his list of horses for potential future bets. As I’ve already mentioned Hugh averages about 206 points profit per year just on his ATR selections. My botched up system above is averaging 116.25 points profit over the last seven years. One thing that will hopefully be a new addition to the software is that evening price figure that Simon has been working with for about 18 months now. By backing all of the system qualifiers the night before ( I normally look at about 7pm) your profit on the above figures at an estimate would at least double. The amount of Proform Top Speed Figure horses that shorten in the market over night are phenomenal. Whilst I have only been collecting these figures on the evening prices for 5 weeks or so, Simon’s figures from the last 18 months more than back this up.

My rough estimation from the evening prices over the same period would suggest that my drilled down system would be approximately 2000 points in profit (285 per year). I will of course each month, give an update on here so anyone that is interested can see how it develops. So far to date in September we are +47.79 points before Friday’s racing. The great thing about Proform is that once your system parameters are saved, the software automatically alerts you of all the qualifiers on the home screen, making placing your bets very easy. They are just as easily copied into spreadsheets too.

The biggest draw down to this system is that you obviously need access plenty of BOG bookmaker accounts too take advantage of the evening before prices. Given the plethora of accounts available, you should have absolutely no problem following this type of system for some time before you run out of options… and as a last resort, it is still very profitable to Betfair SP.

If you have not seen Proform before, check out the website:

http://www.proformracing.com

Hope this has given you some food for thought on finding some winners based purely on statistics.

Happy punting

MG

Proform

Thursday 21st March

Proform

Good morning. I hope that everyone is well refreshed after last week. It was an up and down week but a really good Friday made it a nice winning one. Thanks for all your messages regarding Miako on Tuesday. Obviously the initial reaction after the race was disappointment that he had been beaten, but on the face of it he actually ran really well on a surface that was riding much slower than his previous run. He travels like a dream and has the ability to get his rivals off the bridle very quickly. If we just ride him with a tad more restraint he will definitely win off his new mark, hopefully next week!

We have lost Huntingdon today so I have concentrated todays efforts onto the all-weather (no surprises there I hear you shout!) I am so looking forward to the start of the flat season. I do love the jumps but by far my most profitable time of year is the summer! Fingers crossed the horrid snow manages to bypass Doncaster over the next couple of days as it seems the meeting could be in doubt.

I found it hard to pinpoint the best bet of the day today as I fancy three horses quite strong. First one or two interesting stats from Proform. Quite a few trainers with very good win and place strike rates floating about at the moment but by far the most interesting of those are the top four!

Ed Vaughan 83.33% (Clapped 9.00 Kemp)

Marco Botti 68.75% (Camachoice 8.30 Kempton)

James Unett 66.67% (Big Sylv (5.50 Wolverhampton)

Laura Mongan 62.50% (Indy Spirit 6.30 Kempton, Divine Rule 9.00 Kempton)

This leads me on nicely to the first bet of the day which comes right towards the end of the day in the form of CLAPPED (9.00 Kempton). He is a horse that went firmly into the notebook when upped from 6f to a mile and a half on handicap debut last time which he clearly didn’t stay. This may well have been used as an experiment to see how far he would travel as he had been running on strongly over 6. He drops back to a mile tonight for the very in form Ed Vaughan and has been given the first time blinkers to try to eek out a bit of improvement. He definitely looks capable of winning off this mark and looks of real interest at a tasty each way price of 8/1 this evening.

I really like the claims of WILLIAM VAN GOGH (5.50 Wolverhampton). Based on his old form he looks incredibly well handicapped and he has given two clear indications the last twice that he is ready to strike. He wasn’t given the best of rides last time so it may be significant that Graham Gibbons takes over this afternoon. This is a better race than last week but based on his old ability and off such a light weight he is of major interest to me this afternoon and must be backed!

The other one which took my eye today was QUALITY ART (2.30 Wolverhampton). By no means as strong a selection as the first two but he is another one that is very well in on his old turf form to the tune of about 20lbs. He showed a spark last time suggesting that the time is not far away. He is a hold up horse so will need the gaps appear at the right times. The application of first time blinkers are also another factor to eek out a bit of improvement. He is very interesting but has been well found in the market at 7/2 this morning and I wouldn’t be surprised if he went off pretty short!

Tiger Woods looks like a bit of a banker back at Bay Hill this weekend but he is very well found in the market and is generally an 11/4 shot. I hope he wins for everyone that has piled in!

Good luck today! Here is to three winners!!

MG

Proform