Morning all. Inputting the Racing Post Ratings to the Proform Software is a fairly simple task. You just need a subscription to Raceform Interactive and the relevant importer. I have dabbled with the system builder over time with regards to RPR’s and they will simply not provide you with the depth of the Proform Ratings or Speed Figures when it comes to base systems. There may be some profitability to a small level though so I will have a little play with that today and see what we can find.
My thinking is that the best angle to look at for now to keep things simple is looking for the horse that achieved the highest RPR last time out but didn’t win it’s race. Those that won would have penalties to carry and may have moved up in grade so let’s keep things simple and have a look at the base figure from 01/05/2016.
Not too bad a base figure. Profitable to BFSP but not to early prices. Fairly decent strike rate which would be expected from runners that performed to the best figure last time out. My guess would be that we may get one or two profitable race types and maybe a couple of bad ones so let’s now present that by race type and see where the land lies.
Fairly consistent strike rates here but two race types that have made losses. I must admit, for almost all of the main systems I run I tend to ignore bumpers. They are a unique event with babies effectively and whilst there are some pretty strong angles in those contests they are just not for me. So for now, I am going to remove NHF races and also Chases as they clearly make a fairly steady loss. This improves our profitability to over 600 pts to BFSP.
Next let’s take a look at race class. This is one which will cause plenty of discussion. Some will strongly make a case that if something works it will work in all grades. I am not a believer of that and think you can profit in some grades with certain criteria, but not others. Here’s how we break down…..
A bit of mix and mash. You can see that clearly class 4 races provide a nice profit yet class 5 falls off a cliff. The fact that when you see class 1 races provide a profit but a much lower strike rate that tends to set the alarm bells ringing in terms of sustainability. We all know in the better races that the market is very much top heavy and the best horses in general tend to come out on top at that level. Having looked at the results there are plenty of decent priced winners so that may be something that we can delve into in much more detail at a later date. Horses that have run to the highest RPR last time out in class 1 races that the market is completely ignoring. The green across the board on PRB/PRB^2 and Wax from class 3-6 is encouraging, although the big loss in class 5 races remains a concern. So how shall we take it forward? I think before we start eliminating classes I want to have a quick peak at the breakdown of handicaps and non-handicaps so here that is.
Well I wasn’t really expecting that. Most systems you create using speed figures or the like sway towards handicaps. Clearly this does not! So lets use just non-handicaps and have another look at the classes to see if there are any big changes.
Well eliminating handicaps has certainly removed loads of the red and has even made class 5 races profitable. Just goes to show that any change that pops in your head is always worth looking into. Only thought of the handicap/non-handicap split whilst typing. At this stage you could eliminate class 2 and 3 if you really wanted too but I don’t think there is much need at this stage. I won’t bore you with all the testing I went through from this point. I looked at classifications and there wasn’t too much to tell. Some obviously made losses but they are relatively small. Group 1’s not surprisingly had much the worst strike rate (7.14%) but made a profit largely due to Wings Of Eagles Derby win in 2017 where he returned at a BFSP of 65.10.
Next thing on the agenda was age. Not surprisingly two-year-olds were not good and the data falls off a cliff at the age of 10. So for the purpose of this we are going to use 3-10 year olds only. I had a quick look at profit by course. This is another subject which is largely open to debate. Some think it’s just cosy back-fitting to take losing courses out. I’m a little on the fence as there are some fairly clear reasons why some systems won’t work at certain tracks, but just not being profitable is not one of them. For instance, since using Proform if I had eliminated Chelmsford from all system bets, I’d be MUCH RICHER. I sort my p&l by course every year and it is always the worst performer.
With regards to this system some interesting nuggets appear. Cartmel (quirky track) shows a 62.50% strike rate. Ripon 60% and Plumpton 57.14%. They are pretty impressive numbers. I glanced at things like no. of runners etc and not too much cropped up. One thing that I did put in is on race distance. 4/5f Sprints showed a significant loss and this is something that doesn’t really surprise me. Draw biases and luck in running play a much bigger part in those races especially on tight tracks. So I will lob those on the rubbish heap and we have a finished base figure. Let’s take a look……
So there we go. Just under 1000 pts profit over the space of the four seasons. The EP has moved into profit as well and we’ve improved the overall strike rate to 25.03%. This would not be something that I would look to back blindly, I do feel this has opened some doors to investigate some pretty interesting angles for us to look at over the coming weeks. I’m intrigued by the class 1 angle for sure and maybe breaking that down. I do think that this as a base may be pretty volatile. You might have a some big winning runs and some fair losing ones too, just doing base figures I won’t go into drawdowns at this time.
Years totals were:
Quite possibly something that could go into your automated BFSP betting with BF Bot Manager.
You can do this with all sorts of different ratings. I don’t actually think there are more than a handful of people that even put the RPR’s into Proform. Timeform Ratings would be another interesting one to look at and many others. With the spare time we have at the moment, research projects are going to be a plenty!
Hope this has been at least of minor interest. If anyone has any ideas for other things to look at, feel free to ask!