Wednesday Blog: Crossbar is in pieces…..

Proform

Morning campers. Well yesterday left me feeling like ten rounds with Mr Tyson. Dream Child drifted like a barge on Betfair and was around 8/1 at the off then duly won on the bridle like the well handicapped horse I expected. Anton Chigurgh got smashed all the way down to 11/8 but again there was absolutely no pace on which has cost him as Danny Brock used up loads of petrol to get to the front. Game over. Then Logan’s Lad after being smashed to pieces in the betting again ran a blinder, but was trapped six wide the whole way round and actually went via Milton Keynes to try to win. That effort can firmly be marked up and he is very capable off his new mark. You have to love the game when getting so much right, yet you’re still wrong!

On to today’s action and we have just one runner from the eye-catchers today. A horse that won really well for me last time at Sandown in the form of ONLY TEN PER CENT (5.20 Nottingham). He has taken full advantage of his lower turf mark in recent weeks with two wins from the last three starts. It was the Sandown victory last time that was most pleasing as he actually did it like a horse that is potentially capable of better still. One thing I love in sprinters in form and although he is up 5lbs, this race is no stronger that the Sandown one so I feel he has another good shout today. The early market has spoken in the favour of several others which means he is available to back at 11/1 in most places. Great chance.

1 pt each way at 11/1 generally.

PHILBA – 3.10 Nottingham. Mick Appleby’s son of Cockney Rebel could not have been anymore eye-catching if he tried last time at Sandown. He will relish this step up in trip on handicap debut and in a moderate race I expect him to win well!

4 pts win @ 7/4 generally

BASEM – 3.55 Salisbury. Brother to Farhh that still looks very well treated off 95 now stepping up in trip. He has been well backed but I expect him to win so I will have a few shillings on but the main choice is to double him up with PHILBA.

PHILBA/BASEM 3 pts win double that should pay around 6/1.

Enjoy the day today. All work and no play for me!

MG

Proform

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The big Saturday blog…..

Proform

Morning campers. I theory I should have a banging headache and a stinking hangover this morning after yesterday’s heroics. Luckily With two full days of cricket this weekend I managed to fend off the urge for big celebrations and kept it low-key, so I’m nice and fresh.

Thank you for all the lovely messages and texts etc about yesterday. It makes the effort of writing a blog more than worthwhile. The three main bets of the day all in the end won with some considerable ease. There was never too much worry at all. STOMP as expected is well ahead of the handicapper and was given a lovely patient ride by George Baker. He  has given a very well handicapped horse a good beating and should be followed. KNIGHT OWL was always going to win. Tracking the front two he was always traveling strongly and won like a progressive horse and then ten minutes later FLOW landed the maximum bet in good style despite just getting tired close home. I hope plenty of you put them into some multiples! By the sounds of it, lots of you did! Great work!

Here are today’s trainer stats courtesy of Profrom:

Trainer form with entries today. Win and place strike rate with min 10 runners:

Ger Lyons 75% (16 runners)

Karl Burke 66.67% (27 runners)

Dermot Weld 59.09% (22 runners)

Robert Cowell 56.25% (16 runners)

Ralph Beckett 53.85% (26 runners)

Chris Gordon 53.85% (13 runners)

Michael Dods 53.85% (13 runners)

Amanda Perrett 53.33% (15 runners)

Andrew Balding 53.19% (47 runners)

Kim Bailey 52.94% (17 runners)

Alan King 51.43% (35 runners)

Another really busy day today but nothing fancied as strong as we had yesterday. One or two pokes at big prices. We are well over 100 points up this month now though already so we can be afforded this luxury.

First up is HAMELIN (2.05 Ascot). A bit like Flow yesterday, he is a pattern performer waiting to happen. Just a 6lb rise for a ready win first time in a handicap at the back-end of last year. I expect him to win on his re-appearance.

HAMELIN 2 PTS WIN @ 11/4

I do really like the chances of SAIGON CITY (4.30 Nottingham). He is progressive and surely would have won last time had he had better luck/ if the track had suited. Big galloping track like this today should suit much more and I would expect him to go very close indeed on route to better things. If there is a lurker in this race it could be BARREN BROOK who is also on the interesting list. I will certainly be having a saver on him having shaped with interest on both his starts so far this year.

SAIGON CITY 3 PTS WIN @ 4/1, BARREN BROOK 1 PT SAVER @ 14/1

ANOTHER ROYAL (5.40 Thirsk)  is right at the top of my interesting list at the moment. He has been shaping like a punt is in order for some time. Interesting that he has been stepped up to a mile for the first time today which on his pedigree he is far from certain to get. He has though been shaping like he would appreciate it so it is probably worth a go. If the money comes then he would be very interesting. At about 17/2 he is worth a go today.

ANOTHER ROYAL 2 pts win @17/2

The last bet in a two against the field format is REAL TIGRESS (7.40 Thirsk) and SPACE WAR. We all know about Real Tigress. We have backed her for her last two victories and she hinted the other day that a 6lb penalty would not stop her. So she is worth going in with again in case she has improved again. The one that I am most interested in though is one at a huge price in SPACE WAR. His last win came at this time of year off today’s mark of 66. He was once rated in the 90’s so he is thrown in on some of his old form. His return was very eye-catching in that there was very little effort whatsoever in the saddle. The step back up to a mile today is a big positive and bearing in mind they are a gambling yard, he rates as very interesting if today is the day. You can get plenty of 20/1 this morning which will do very nicely.

REAL TIGRESS 1 PT WIN @ 4/1, SPACE WAR 2 pts EACH WAY @ 20/1

Two shorties I think will both win are YOURARTISONFIRE (4.35 Ling) and SEA DEFENSE (7.55 War), so those of you looking for a multiple should include those. Like I said at the top, nothing as strong as yesterday on a busy Saturday but hopefully we have found a few winners.

The best of luck if you are getting involved in the scoop 6 today. 7.5 million pounds up for grabs. I won’t be playing, it looks devilishly difficult to me and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it rolls over again.

Best of luck today

All the best

MG

Proform

Friday’s blog………

Proform

A late night last night was kinda inevitable with game four of the Bruins series with the Habs not starting till half past midnight which was just about the same time as the 2014 NFL draft. The skins get the 2nd pick in round two, hopefully we can start to build a secondary! Game four was certainly nail-biting! I think I woke up the whole street when we scored the over time winner to take a 1-0 road win and tie the series up at two a piece. I have to admit we are fortunate to be level, Montreal have out skated us, their rink length break passes are dangerous and their penalty kill is the best I have seen this year.

I’m hosting @TimeformRadio this afternoon so I’m writing this whilst being thrown about on the train. Don’t know what it is but the Brighton-London mainline just seems to get busier and busier, even after rush hour.

A quick look back on yesterday. We only liked the look of one of the races at Chester and that produced a lovely 8/1 winner and 7/1 second. They pulled well clear of the others and have both out run their current marks. Hoping that this rich vein of form will continue through the rest of the summer.

Let’s move on to some Proform stats for the day today.

Trainers win & place strike rates with min 10 runners in the last 14 days:

Saeed Bin Suroor 63.64% (11 runners)

Karl Burke 62.50% (24 runners)

Michael Dods 61.11% (18 runners)

Ralph Beckett 59.26% (27 runners)

Andrew Balding 54.76% (42 runners)

Amanda Perrett 53.85% (13 runners)

Karl Burke and David Elsworth both remain in excellent form and have winning strike rates of over 40%.

Having gone through the Chester card today for the radio I found it hard to come up with anything I could get overly enthusiastic about. I did think that CENTURY will run a big race in the Dee Stakes (2.15) but found it difficult to find any other angles.

First up today is STOMP (3.05 Lingfield). He has been on the radar for ages. He should have won both of his last two starts at the back-end of last year but for bad luck in running/poor rides. He comes here on the back of an easy victory at Windsor on his re-appearance after being gelded over the winter. A 6lb rise only actually leaves him 3lb higher than when he should have won at Pontefract. I think he is still seriously well handicapped off 79 and provided there are no traffic problems I expect him to win again. He is a Timeform horse in focus. The money has really come this morning for  Double Up so there is plenty of 3/1 available. I would just throw in a nice note for AMAHORO who I am sure is going to win one of these soon enough. He might just be bumping into a couple of very well handicapped horses though today. I will have a small saver on him to cover the bets.

STOMP 4 PTS WIN @ 3/1 BOG, AMAHORO 0.5pt win @ 20/1

I fully Expect MAIDEN APPROACH (6.50 Nottingham) to make a winning re-appearance. She managed to win her final start over five furlongs but is surely going to be more effective over this sort of trip today.

MAIDEN APPROACH 2PTS WIN @ 5/1

It is probably worth throwing a final dart at JOEY’S DESTINY (7.15 Ascot) this evening. He has been unlucky not to win already this season and has been bumped up another 4lbs for being beaten at Windsor last time. I am not sure that track entirely suited whereas Ascot most certainly will and he was beaten by what I consider to be a very well handicapped horse at Windsor in the enigmatic Huntsman’s Close. He is a double figure price so just fire 1pt at him each way as he should be in the money at least.

JOEY’S DESTINY 1 pt EACH WAY @ 15/2

KNIGHT OWL (7.25 Nottingham) is another for me who is close to maximum bet material. He progressed really well toewards the back end of last year and on his re-appearance run two weeks ago he travelled like the best horse in the race for a long way before a lack of race fitness just took its toll late on. That should have put him spot on for this evening and I expect him to be incredibly hard to beat tonight.

KNIGHT OWL 4 pts win @ 3/1

FLOW (7.35 Ripon) is absolutely maximum material in spades. He progressed nicely last year and was just foiled in a big field handicap on his final start at York when a well backed favourite. He is up 3lbs but still races off a mark of 86 here when I’m sure he is a three figure horse waiting to happen. If he is fit and ready to go here today then he is going to take a world of beating.

FLOW MAXIMUM 5 PTs WIN @ 7/2

Final two to come off the list are a little bit later on with MR MATTHEWS (7.50 Ascot) looking like fair value for a big run. He in my opinion has been looking for a seventh furlong and today he gets it. His trainer could not possibly be in better form 62% getting placed and over 40% winning in the last 14 days and he just looks much too big a price tonight

MR MATTHEWS 1 pts EACH WAY @ 14/1

The last one of the day is a bit of a dart in the form of MALACHIM MIST (8.20 Ascot). He has dropped to a nice mark based on some of last years efforts (especially the Nottingham run) and he shaped well for a long way on his re-appearance. One or two of the yards runners have really needed that first run and if that has sharpened him up he could be massively over-priced in this tonight. Frankie takes the ride and no one rides Ascot better. Interesting.

MALACHIM MIST 1 PT EACH WAY @ 25/1

Because I am so strong on STOMP, FLOW and KNIGHT OWL I have thrown them into some multiples as well in the hoping of a game changer!

Really busy afternoon presenting Timeform Radio today. Hope you all enjoy the action and that we have managed to find one or two winners again!

Have a good day,

All the best,

MG