A late night last night was kinda inevitable with game four of the Bruins series with the Habs not starting till half past midnight which was just about the same time as the 2014 NFL draft. The skins get the 2nd pick in round two, hopefully we can start to build a secondary! Game four was certainly nail-biting! I think I woke up the whole street when we scored the over time winner to take a 1-0 road win and tie the series up at two a piece. I have to admit we are fortunate to be level, Montreal have out skated us, their rink length break passes are dangerous and their penalty kill is the best I have seen this year.
I’m hosting @TimeformRadio this afternoon so I’m writing this whilst being thrown about on the train. Don’t know what it is but the Brighton-London mainline just seems to get busier and busier, even after rush hour.
A quick look back on yesterday. We only liked the look of one of the races at Chester and that produced a lovely 8/1 winner and 7/1 second. They pulled well clear of the others and have both out run their current marks. Hoping that this rich vein of form will continue through the rest of the summer.
Let’s move on to some Proform stats for the day today.
Trainers win & place strike rates with min 10 runners in the last 14 days:
Saeed Bin Suroor 63.64% (11 runners)
Karl Burke 62.50% (24 runners)
Michael Dods 61.11% (18 runners)
Ralph Beckett 59.26% (27 runners)
Andrew Balding 54.76% (42 runners)
Amanda Perrett 53.85% (13 runners)
Karl Burke and David Elsworth both remain in excellent form and have winning strike rates of over 40%.
Having gone through the Chester card today for the radio I found it hard to come up with anything I could get overly enthusiastic about. I did think that CENTURY will run a big race in the Dee Stakes (2.15) but found it difficult to find any other angles.
First up today is STOMP (3.05 Lingfield). He has been on the radar for ages. He should have won both of his last two starts at the back-end of last year but for bad luck in running/poor rides. He comes here on the back of an easy victory at Windsor on his re-appearance after being gelded over the winter. A 6lb rise only actually leaves him 3lb higher than when he should have won at Pontefract. I think he is still seriously well handicapped off 79 and provided there are no traffic problems I expect him to win again. He is a Timeform horse in focus. The money has really come this morning for Double Up so there is plenty of 3/1 available. I would just throw in a nice note for AMAHORO who I am sure is going to win one of these soon enough. He might just be bumping into a couple of very well handicapped horses though today. I will have a small saver on him to cover the bets.
STOMP 4 PTS WIN @ 3/1 BOG, AMAHORO 0.5pt win @ 20/1
I fully Expect MAIDEN APPROACH (6.50 Nottingham) to make a winning re-appearance. She managed to win her final start over five furlongs but is surely going to be more effective over this sort of trip today.
MAIDEN APPROACH 2PTS WIN @ 5/1
It is probably worth throwing a final dart at JOEY’S DESTINY (7.15 Ascot) this evening. He has been unlucky not to win already this season and has been bumped up another 4lbs for being beaten at Windsor last time. I am not sure that track entirely suited whereas Ascot most certainly will and he was beaten by what I consider to be a very well handicapped horse at Windsor in the enigmatic Huntsman’s Close. He is a double figure price so just fire 1pt at him each way as he should be in the money at least.
JOEY’S DESTINY 1 pt EACH WAY @ 15/2
KNIGHT OWL (7.25 Nottingham) is another for me who is close to maximum bet material. He progressed really well toewards the back end of last year and on his re-appearance run two weeks ago he travelled like the best horse in the race for a long way before a lack of race fitness just took its toll late on. That should have put him spot on for this evening and I expect him to be incredibly hard to beat tonight.
KNIGHT OWL 4 pts win @ 3/1
FLOW (7.35 Ripon) is absolutely maximum material in spades. He progressed nicely last year and was just foiled in a big field handicap on his final start at York when a well backed favourite. He is up 3lbs but still races off a mark of 86 here when I’m sure he is a three figure horse waiting to happen. If he is fit and ready to go here today then he is going to take a world of beating.
FLOW MAXIMUM 5 PTs WIN @ 7/2
Final two to come off the list are a little bit later on with MR MATTHEWS (7.50 Ascot) looking like fair value for a big run. He in my opinion has been looking for a seventh furlong and today he gets it. His trainer could not possibly be in better form 62% getting placed and over 40% winning in the last 14 days and he just looks much too big a price tonight
MR MATTHEWS 1 pts EACH WAY @ 14/1
The last one of the day is a bit of a dart in the form of MALACHIM MIST (8.20 Ascot). He has dropped to a nice mark based on some of last years efforts (especially the Nottingham run) and he shaped well for a long way on his re-appearance. One or two of the yards runners have really needed that first run and if that has sharpened him up he could be massively over-priced in this tonight. Frankie takes the ride and no one rides Ascot better. Interesting.
MALACHIM MIST 1 PT EACH WAY @ 25/1
Because I am so strong on STOMP, FLOW and KNIGHT OWL I have thrown them into some multiples as well in the hoping of a game changer!
Really busy afternoon presenting Timeform Radio today. Hope you all enjoy the action and that we have managed to find one or two winners again!
Have a good day,
All the best,