January wrap up and Sunday’s action!

Proform

Well we have arrived at the end of the first week and the end of January. A pretty decent start to our challenge to get us off the ground too. Sixteen bets in total in week one with five winners yielding a 31.25% strike rate. We will happily take that throughout the rest of the year especially as several things didn’t really fall for us this week. We have finished off January with a 12.25 points profit (+£1,225).

Saturday was slightly frustrating. Silsol won really well again in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at a juicy 10/1. I very nearly went a little stronger than the single point on him.

silsol

The last horse I crossed off the list yesterday was Join The Clan at Wetherby. Thought his price was a bit skinny in the morning despite thinking he had a great chance of following up his Warwick win. Well he went off even shorter and won well again. I found Ffos Las slightly uncomfortable viewing throughout most of the afternoon.

On to Sunday’s action and I am going to attempt to kick February off with a couple out the back of the hand as I like the look of a few at prices. I’m writing this on Saturday evening so apologies if some of the prices are a little out of date. I would advise (as always) where possible to be taking best odds guaranteed.

We are going to start with the googly in the form of EASTWARD HO (2.20 Chelmsford City). On recent form he doesn’t cry out as a potential winner but I’m hoping that circumstances of the race may just help. Firstly he is absolutely thrown in on some of his back form, admittedly though it’s been a while since he shown anywhere near that. Now he likes to be handy in his races but with Miami Gator in the field he is likely to have to take a lead. They are drawn alongside each other in 3 and 4 here so hoping we can just get a lovely trail into the race and pounce late. We are getting weight all-round here with Danny Brock taking over from Shelley and provided he doesn’t go mad early and try to chase a silly pace he may well be overpriced at 18/1.

EASTWARD HO 1 pt win 18/1 with SKYBET.

My strongest fancy of the day comes in the 3.20 at Chelmsford with BLACKTHORN STICK. John Butler’s charge did well to come from so far back last time to finish a close second behind a well backed winner. Having come a long way back down the weights he is now on a really attractive mark and could be ready to strike. I am hoping they have a good look at the race and ride him a bit closer to the pace as there is a lack of early toe in here. Ridden handily from a middle draw and kicking off the bend should see him go very close.

BLACKTHORN STICK 2 pts win @ 9/2

BIRCH HILL (3.30 Musselbugh) looks certain to appreciate the step up in trip when tackling three miles under rules for the first time. Mistakes and the wrong trip have been the issue to date but when wining his point last April he was strongest at the finish and with the extra emphasis on stamina here I’m hoping we may finally start to see some of the promised potential. He’s a general 4/1 chance this evening and that is probably too big.

BIRCH HILL 2 pts win @ 4/1 generally.

One more to come late on and again this time we’ll chuck in the doosra. Gonna throw a point at KRUZHLININ at Musselburgh (4.30). The Grand National is likely again to be the target this year for Donald McCain’s charge. He has not been seen since the Beecher Chase in early December where he got behind early but stayed on to finish a creditable 7th. Whilst this is probably a prep run, his hurdles mark is lower than his chase rating and the yard have hugely turned the corner this week. This is the weakest race he has run in for a while and I just thought that he may well out run his odds significantly. You don’t want to get too far behind round here so I will be delighted if he is ridden close to the pace in the early part of the race.

KRUZHLININ 1 pt win @ 16/1 generally.

Have an awesome Sunday and fingers crossed the Patriots do the business for us tonight in Superbowl 49!

Be lucky!

MG

Proform

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Best week ever?

Proform

Morning everyone. What a fantastic week we had the last week. I think, without having done all the sums yet that we may have had somewhere in the region of 70 + points profit on the week. Here’s hoping for another one! Saturday was a shade disappointing after the carnage of Friday. Thought Hamelin was unlucky not to win at Ascot. I was counting the winning’s when Saigon City kicked clear two out, happy that Barren Brook our saver looked the only possible danger. When BB chinned him close home my initial reaction was annoyed…….until I saw the SP of 20/1. Thank the lord for best odds guaranteed! That was actually the better result of the two! Put a great end to a super week!

For a Monday it is quite busy on the racing front today. I am hosting Timeform Radio this afternoon so it is a busy day all round. Here are some Proform stats to get us underway!

Trainer form with entries today. Win and place strike rate with min 10 runners:

Robert Cowell 64.71% (17 runners)

Karl Burke 60% (25 Runners)

Amanda Perrett 60% (15 runners)

John Gosden 54.84% (31 runners)

Kim Bailey 52.94% (17 runners)

Robert Cowell’s horses have hit some form. He has one entry today, that is Moonspring (2.55 Ling)

Quite a few runners today off the interesting list without anything approaching a very strong bet. First up in the opening race on the card at Doncaster we have LIGHTENING SHOWER (1.40). The Marco Botti trained son of Mr Greeley is only rated 67 but has hinted on a couple of occasions that might underestimate him a little. Has has shaped well already this year in races that didn’t really pan out his way. This step up in trip looks like a sensible option (no real turn of foot) and the nature of this track should suit. I would be weary of a big run from Deep Resolve but he is worth a point.

LIGHTENING SHOWER 1 PT WIN @ 7/2.

BALLYSHONAGH (2.10 Doncaster) is also of interest now she moves into handicap company for the first time. She improved slightly with each run in maidens last year and is closely related to a couple of similar improvers. A rating of 64 means she might be well handicapped now she switches to the turf. She has a Timeform p next to her name and I would anticipate some rapid improvement this year for a yard that have started the season well.

BALLYSHONAGH 1 PT WIN @ 8/1.

FLY SOLO (3.40 Mussel) is a must bet today. Ran a blinder on his re-appearance trying to hunt down Brigadoon at Catterick when the winner just got first run. He is still well handicapped on his old form and has the assistance of Kieren Fallon today. Must have an excellent shout.

FLY SOLO 2 PTS WIN @ 11/4.

Those of you that follow the flat closely will know that David Lanigan likes to bring his youngsters on very much with the slowly slowly approach. He has SEQUESTER (4.05 Ling) going today into handicap company for the first time off a mark of 65. She showed plenty of promise on her debut on turf before disappointing on two efforts on the sand. She has had a break now of 187 days and if cherry ripe first time up, might prove to be well up to the task. This might actually be a good race for the grade as there are plenty of Timeform p’s on the card. I’m hoping she is ready and runs a big race. I will just throw STONEHAM in the mix. She will be a huge price but I’m fairly sure she is better than she has shown so far and will out run her odds.

SEQUESTER 2 PTS WIN @ 4/1, STONEHAM 0.5 PTS EACH WAY @ 25/1.

You will all remember PETERGATE (5.00 Doncaster) who ran a blinder for us at a massive price last time. I am sure he has got one of these races in him and because we have a short price favourite in here today he is going to be interesting again. William Buick has been booked for the ride which is a big positive and whilst I originally thought that a step up in trip might work, he shaped last time like a galloping seven furlongs would be ideal. He’s interesting.

PETERGATE 1 PT EACH WAY @ 14/1

I think out of all of the eye catchers on display today the best may have been kept until last. I really like the way that IRONDALE EXPRESS (5.35 Doncaster) shaped on her re-appearance at Redcar when getting hampered turning for home. She traveled strongly but didn’t see out the 10f trip. On my notes I wrote VERY INTERESTING IF DROPPED IN TRIP NEXT TIME. Needless to say she has been dropped to 7f with Paul Hanagan booked to ride. She has only had six starts, two of those in quite decent handicaps and I do feel there is plenty to work with. This is obviously quite a decent race for the grade with plenty of potential improvers and handicap debutants but that is factored into her price and she is definitely worth an each way stab.

IRONDALE EXPRESS 1.5PTS EACH WAY @ 16/1

Not the easiest of days punting in store but hopefully we can manage to eek out a few points profit on the day. I’ll be on air on Timeform Radio from about 1.30 this afternoon. Hope you can join in the show in some way.

Have a good afternoon!

All the best

MG

Proform