Friday’s blog………

Proform

A late night last night was kinda inevitable with game four of the Bruins series with the Habs not starting till half past midnight which was just about the same time as the 2014 NFL draft. The skins get the 2nd pick in round two, hopefully we can start to build a secondary! Game four was certainly nail-biting! I think I woke up the whole street when we scored the over time winner to take a 1-0 road win and tie the series up at two a piece. I have to admit we are fortunate to be level, Montreal have out skated us, their rink length break passes are dangerous and their penalty kill is the best I have seen this year.

I’m hosting @TimeformRadio this afternoon so I’m writing this whilst being thrown about on the train. Don’t know what it is but the Brighton-London mainline just seems to get busier and busier, even after rush hour.

A quick look back on yesterday. We only liked the look of one of the races at Chester and that produced a lovely 8/1 winner and 7/1 second. They pulled well clear of the others and have both out run their current marks. Hoping that this rich vein of form will continue through the rest of the summer.

Let’s move on to some Proform stats for the day today.

Trainers win & place strike rates with min 10 runners in the last 14 days:

Saeed Bin Suroor 63.64% (11 runners)

Karl Burke 62.50% (24 runners)

Michael Dods 61.11% (18 runners)

Ralph Beckett 59.26% (27 runners)

Andrew Balding 54.76% (42 runners)

Amanda Perrett 53.85% (13 runners)

Karl Burke and David Elsworth both remain in excellent form and have winning strike rates of over 40%.

Having gone through the Chester card today for the radio I found it hard to come up with anything I could get overly enthusiastic about. I did think that CENTURY will run a big race in the Dee Stakes (2.15) but found it difficult to find any other angles.

First up today is STOMP (3.05 Lingfield). He has been on the radar for ages. He should have won both of his last two starts at the back-end of last year but for bad luck in running/poor rides. He comes here on the back of an easy victory at Windsor on his re-appearance after being gelded over the winter. A 6lb rise only actually leaves him 3lb higher than when he should have won at Pontefract. I think he is still seriously well handicapped off 79 and provided there are no traffic problems I expect him to win again. He is a Timeform horse in focus. The money has really come this morning forĀ  Double Up so there is plenty of 3/1 available. I would just throw in a nice note for AMAHORO who I am sure is going to win one of these soon enough. He might just be bumping into a couple of very well handicapped horses though today. I will have a small saver on him to cover the bets.

STOMP 4 PTS WIN @ 3/1 BOG, AMAHORO 0.5pt win @ 20/1

I fully Expect MAIDEN APPROACH (6.50 Nottingham) to make a winning re-appearance. She managed to win her final start over five furlongs but is surely going to be more effective over this sort of trip today.

MAIDEN APPROACH 2PTS WIN @ 5/1

It is probably worth throwing a final dart at JOEY’S DESTINY (7.15 Ascot) this evening. He has been unlucky not to win already this season and has been bumped up another 4lbs for being beaten at Windsor last time. I am not sure that track entirely suited whereas Ascot most certainly will and he was beaten by what I consider to be a very well handicapped horse at Windsor in the enigmatic Huntsman’s Close. He is a double figure price so just fire 1pt at him each way as he should be in the money at least.

JOEY’S DESTINY 1 pt EACH WAY @ 15/2

KNIGHT OWL (7.25 Nottingham) is another for me who is close to maximum bet material. He progressed really well toewards the back end of last year and on his re-appearance run two weeks ago he travelled like the best horse in the race for a long way before a lack of race fitness just took its toll late on. That should have put him spot on for this evening and I expect him to be incredibly hard to beat tonight.

KNIGHT OWL 4 pts win @ 3/1

FLOW (7.35 Ripon) is absolutely maximum material in spades. He progressed nicely last year and was just foiled in a big field handicap on his final start at York when a well backed favourite. He is up 3lbs but still races off a mark of 86 here when I’m sure he is a three figure horse waiting to happen. If he is fit and ready to go here today then he is going to take a world of beating.

FLOW MAXIMUM 5 PTs WIN @ 7/2

Final two to come off the list are a little bit later on with MR MATTHEWS (7.50 Ascot) looking like fair value for a big run. He in my opinion has been looking for a seventh furlong and today he gets it. His trainer could not possibly be in better form 62% getting placed and over 40% winning in the last 14 days and he just looks much too big a price tonight

MR MATTHEWS 1 pts EACH WAY @ 14/1

The last one of the day is a bit of a dart in the form of MALACHIM MIST (8.20 Ascot). He has dropped to a nice mark based on some of last years efforts (especially the Nottingham run) and he shaped well for a long way on his re-appearance. One or two of the yards runners have really needed that first run and if that has sharpened him up he could be massively over-priced in this tonight. Frankie takes the ride and no one rides Ascot better. Interesting.

MALACHIM MIST 1 PT EACH WAY @ 25/1

Because I am so strong on STOMP, FLOW and KNIGHT OWL I have thrown them into some multiples as well in the hoping of a game changer!

Really busy afternoon presenting Timeform Radio today. Hope you all enjoy the action and that we have managed to find one or two winners again!

Have a good day,

All the best,

MG

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Thursday blog…

Proform

A real busy day today so apologies if today’s blog is a little bit sparse.

Here are the trainers win and place strike rates over the last 14 days with a minimum of ten runners:

Karl Burke 66.67% (24 runners)

Chris Gordon 58.33% (12 runners)

Dermot Weld 57.14% (21 runners)

John Jenkins 55.56% (18 runners)

William Haggas 50% (22 runners)

Kim Bailey 50% (16 runners)

Andrew Balding 50% (38 runners)

Just a couple of noted runners for the action this afternoon. I will be going to against the field in the 4.25 Chester with KICKBOXER and THE HOODED CLAW both making some appeal despite less than ideal draws in stalls 7 and 9 respectively. Kickboxer ran a cracker at a massive price in the Cornwallis at Ascot at the back-end of last year and if that form is to be believed he surely is fairly handicapped off 81. His two runs so far this year should have him cherry ripe. The Hooded Claw is another one that finished 2013 off well and has slipped back down to a mark of 80. He didn’t get the best of runs on either of his runs so far to date this year and whilst that is a concern again here, he is priced accordingly. Granted a better draw I would be all over FIFTYSHADESOFGREY at 33/1 as he certainly has races in him off his current mark, but I doubt that will be today.

KICKBOXER 1 pt win @ 7/1 and THE HOODED CLAW 2 pts win @ 8/1.

Just a small note and an each way interest on SWITCHED OFF (4.35 Southwell). I’m sure he has been crying out to go back up in trip and whilst this is a competitive race, he has dropped in the weights. I don’t think he should be anywhere near the 28/1 that is available in places with Luke Morris on board.

SWITCHED OFF 1 pt each way @ 28/1.

Enjoy the day!

MG

Proform

Chester is here, stall one please……

Proform

46.6pts profit so far in May

It was nice to get a confident selection over the line yesterday. The only real shock was the SP of 2/1. She travelled like the best horse in the race and the decisive kick coming down the hill meant that her rivals had all but been fended off by the furlong pole. This did look a very weak race on paper and to be fair she didn’t smack this time round like a horse that is crying out for 7 or 8 furlongs. We will keep her on side and look closely at her entries. Brighton suits her well. As for Paradise Child I think we can confidently cross her off the list as she doesn’t look to have trained on.

Twenty minutes later and the joy turned to anguish with Glanely. As mentioned in yesterdays notes he is a lazy sod with one long burst rather than a turn of foot. For him he travelled really well under Hughesy and I thought he was the winner turning for home. He got held up ever so slightly in the ruck as they quickened and he had to switch to the inside. Horrible to be beaten a neck. Still another 5 pts profit on the day so we shouldn’t grumble.

Today is the start of Chester’s May meeting with more classic clues about to be dished out. Funny news this morning that StanJames are in trouble with the local council for putting advertising on the pavement. Naughty, but funny all the same.

Here are today’s Proform stats:

Trainers with entries today who’s win & place strike rate is over 50% in the last 14 days (min 10 runners):

Karl Burke 60% (25 runners)

Chris Gordon 60% (10 runners)

John Jenkins 57.89% (19 runners)

William Haggas 55% (20 runners)

Nicky Henderson 52.94% (34 Runners)

Karl Burke, William Haggas, Roger Varian and Chris Gordon all have exceptional winning strike rates too.

First interesting one of the day today is SHWAIMAN (2.45 Chester) in the Chester Cup for James Fanshawe. He has for sometime looked like a colt that would appreciate a real test of stamina. The Gold Cup at Ascot might end up being his ultimate target this season and if that is the case you would like to think he could be competitive off a mark of 97. There are some obvious pitfalls with him in that he is not always foot perfect from the stalls and he generally races in rear, which at Chester can be almost impossible at times. Both of those negatives though are factored into his price and at a general 16/1, you could certainly throw an each way dart at him in the hope that we get some luck in running.

SHWAIMAN 1 pt EACH WAY @ 16/1

It was just about last chance saloon today for LAMBERT PEN at Brighton but he is now a non runner.

I do really like the chances of TOP BOY (3.15 Chester) this afternoon. We were on when he won very convincingly three starts back and he arguably should have won his next two starts too. Of the horses in this that have already had runs this year he has got the good end of the draw in stall 2 which is a huge bonus. Whilst he doesn’t want to be gunned from the front, he will want to just sit in the two path and pounce late. He is up another 4lbs for his consistency to 86 but he was rated 101 not too long ago so is very much capable and fitness/draw could be key!

TOP BOY 2 PTS @ 8/1

One that has been in the book for 196 days is STYBBA (6.15 Kemp). Given three runs as a two-year old it was obvious after the first two that it was just about getting a handicap mark and a low one at that! Stybba starts life in handicaps off a mark of 56 tonight that could easily underestimate his ability. There has been an early trickle of money for him so I expect he is a very well handicapped horse tonight.

STYBBA 3 PTS WIN @ 3/1

The last one of the day is OGARITMO (9.15 Kempton) who again has been followed for some time. He has been tried over various distances of late and because he travels strongly through his races it seems he can be going better than he actually is. I am convinced that a strongly run 12 furlongs around Kempton suits him perfectly and whilst there is no out-and-out front-runner in this field there are four of them that do like to go forward so we should get a solid pace. If we do and Dane can get him settled towards the rear of the field and pounce as late as possible then he is definitely a big each way player.

OGARITMO – 1 PT EACH WAY @ 14/1 (BETFRED)

Enjoy day one of Chester. I’m off on the road for a couple of days!

All the best,

MG

Proform