Wednesday 3rd Jan

Morning all. It has been an interesting few days across all sports. Well done to those of you that backed Native Robin the other day, he was so weak in the betting throughout the day, but the result was never really in any doubt. He absolutely tanked through the race and could have been called the winner a long way out. The SP of 11/1 (16 BFSP) was a decent touch for those of you with BOG.

On the NHL front, good to see Vegas and Boston continue to win and contract in price. Some of the bookmakers reacted to the bets and prices from the other day, some are still sleeping. Hills cut Boston from 33/1 into 14’s within a day or so. They were mightily impressive again last night winning 5-1 on the road in New York.

Trainers with runners today that have a win and place strike rate of above 50% in the last 10 days:

Nick Williams 75%

Warren Greatrex 72.73%

Kim Bailey 63.64%

Donald McCain 52%

Tim Easterby 50%

A couple of eye catchers worth noting going today. CRITICAL THINKING (7.10) would have gone very close to winning last time had he not got caught out off a slow pace. He’s well handicapped on his old form. Back up in trip with Cameron Noble claiming 3lbs off his back, he looks a cracking bet today at about 9/2. I have had a small saver on SANAM in the same race who could be absolutely lobbed in on his first handicap start for Ed Dunlop.

At Southwell today there are a few speculative wagers to look out for too. In the 1.10 FABELLA BERE steps up in trip. She got outpaced and plugged on last time over a mile. She is bred to like the surface and the slower tempo today might find her in the mix. She’s about 20’s on Betfair. Later on in the final race (3.40) the two complete outsiders MINING ROCKS and GONEWITHTHEWIND are both of the smallest interest. Mining Rocks has never been here before and is bred to appreciate the surface. He’s on a tumbling mark and another 7lbs is taken off by the young rider. Gonewiththewind has dropped to a career low mark, the rider takes off another 3lbs, he’s down in grade. They are 34’s and 60’s on the machine, so I’ll be having small plays at those prices with slightly better interests in the place markets.

Good luck today.

MG

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Thunder sends shivers through the King…….

Proform

A thrilling 2000 Guineas was the highlight of the action on Saturday with 40/1 shot Night Of Thunder taking first prize despite drifting across half the track. The runners split into two groups which have led some reports to believe the race has thrown up an odd result, I personally don’t really buy into this. Kingman ran a blinder to finish 2nd. Probably in front early enough on the far side. Australia is now a short price favourite on the back of his 3rd for the Derby, which is good news as I will be keen to take him on at Epsom.

Today is the turn of the ladies in the 1000. As per usual my ante-post position on My Titania has gone with the wind! 17 fillies are set to go to post at 3.50 and I am really keen now on the chances of MISS FRANCE. Andre Fabre’s filly was most impressive when winning the Oh So Sharp back in September when winning with quite a bit in hand. She can be forgiven being beaten on her re-appearance as the race was a mess from the start. It will at the very least have put her cherry ripe for this afternoon.

A quick look back at some of the results yesterday. Absolutely So won really well as did Fort Bastian. Waseem Farris ran a blinder at a huge price and was actually maybe unfortunate not to win. Fingers crossed plenty of you backed them all.

Time for some Proform stats for trainers that have runners this afternoon:

Trainers win and place strike rate with more than 10 runners in the last 14 days:

A P O’Brien 68.18% (22 runners)

Ralph Beckett 61.54% (26 runners)

Saeed Bin Suroor 60% (10 runners)

John Bridger 53.85% (13 runners)

Michael Dods 52.38% (21 runners)

Clive Cox 52.38% (21 runners)

Andrew Balding 51.52% (33 Runners)

I should also note from these figures that Karl Burke currently has a 35.71% winning strike rate as 10 of his last 28 runners have won. He sends out Odeliz and Yeeoow today.

On to today’s eye catchers. First up we have ECONOMIC CRISIS (1.55 Ham) who has been in the book since an interesting run back in October.  He is now a well handicapped horse as he is 5lbs below his last winning mark. His two runs this year will have made him cherry ripe for this afternoon and he absolutely loves it here (all three career wins at Hamilton). He is as big as 8/1 in places in a race that looks very winnable indeed.

YEEOOW (3.10 Newmarket) looks to be coming to the boil really nicely and he is on a winning mark. The yard is absolutely bouncing as we have already mentioned sending out 10 winners from their last 28 runners. This is really competitive but it should be run to suit and if you shop around then you can get some 14/1 with the first five places being paid by some of the big firms if you like the each way angle. I would almost insist on a saver or maybe split stakes on NINJAGO in the same race. He was potentially unlucky not to have won a couple of big prizes last year and from a handicapping point of view is surely capable off 101. He goes very well fresh and Hughesy is up which is a positive. Play the two against the field at 14/1 and 11/1 respectively.

Longshot

Without doubt the horse on the day that is probably most over-priced is the Linda Perratt trained ROYAL STRAIGHT (4.10 Hamilton). The negatives are that he can take a run or two to get race ready some times and that he may well be better now over 10 furlongs but both of these negatives are out weighed by the price. He is a general 28/1 chance but there is much bigger available on Betfair. His last two wins were off marks of 64 and 67. Today Royal Straight will race off 63. He is very capable and if he is race fit he could just run a massive race at a big price. If today is not the day, keep an eye on him for next time.

The dilemma of what to do when three of your horses to follow all end up in the same race. Hamiton’s 4.45 has thrown up SIRVINO, O Ma Lad and Pixie Cut. Of the three (who I think will all win soon) I do favour Sirvino. He ran an absolute blinder at Musselburgh last time on a track that was suiting front-runners. He missed the break and had to come from a long way back. The 2lb rise will not stop him from winning. O Ma Lad was given a very interesting ride back on his re-appearance and I would expect him to go close too. I am also convinced that Pixie Cut is a well handicapped horse but she might struggle against the top two. I would strongly suggest backing Sirvino and O Ma Lad for a profit and have a saver on Pixie Cut.

I hope the above digs out the odd winner. Another day of cricket for me this afternoon. Should just leave on the note of how enjoyable beating Spurs three times in a season was. Epic. they spent 108 million pounds on new players. We bought a crocked number 9 who has played about 8 games……. funny old game eh? COYI

What a comeback too by the Boston Bruins last night in the 3rd period. Their skating speed and fore-check late in the game has really set the tone for the rest of the series.

Enjoy today,

All the best

MG

Sir Henry Cecil, more winners and a pace bias?

pro5

Woke up with a right old spring in the step this morning on the back of yesterday’s results. It seems all the work I am putting in at the moment is really paying off as we had two more lovely winners. Not an awful lot went right for Ghanaian but she still won really well and pretty comfortably. She looks well ahead of her mark and the time was the best of the day on the card too. I think you have to give extra credit to Press Room at Lingfield last night too as he managed to wear down another seriously well handicapped beast in Big Thunder. They pulled well clear of the others and both have multiple entries over the coming days. Big Thunder definitely needs to go back on turf on a galloping track mind as he never really looked at ease at Lingers. The 4/1 about Press Room in the morning was a gift considering his SP of 6/4, I just hope I convinced enough of you to join in. He is entered at Sandown on Friday, but I doubt he will get in.

The sad news about Sir Henry Cecil yesterday was a bitter blow to the racing industry. A truly remarkable man and above all a fantastic horseman. No less than 75 Royal Ascot winners spanning 43 years. He excelled with fillies and picked up six 1000 Guineas victories as well as eight Oaks. Four Derby winners and no less than ten trainers championships. Towards the end of his career he will largely be remembered by the younger brigade as the man who so tenderly handled probably the greatest racehorse we will ever see in FRANKEL. Many believe Frankel wouldn’t have gone unbeaten in the hands of another trainer and that just speaks volumes. Sir Henry, a true gentlemen, an unbelievable horseman and an absolute legend of our sport. RIP.

If you were paying particular attention to the meeting at Yarmouth last week you will have noticed that 6/7 races were won from the front. Very similar conditions at the Norfolk track today could see a similar outcome. I haven’t had a chance to go through the Yarmouth card in too much detail though as I am travelling up there today for presenting duties so have a good look through the card for pace angles. At a very brief look that might make Claude Greenwood interesting in the 3.10 although strictly he has a few pounds to find.

Now onto the runners today from the notebook. First up and many of you will remember this one from last year is ISOLA VERDE (5.10 Yarmouth). I’ve had to be pretty patient in waiting to get the reddies back on this one as her last run was back in November. She ran in first time blinkers that night and not for the first occasion she got badly hampered and had a troubled passage. She is undoubtedly better than her current mark and if she is fit and well she could go close. Today could also just as likely be a prep for another day as she will come on for this. I’ve had to play though as the price of 7/1 this morning was just too tempting especially with Buick up.

Another one from the list is GRAN MAESTRO (2.20 Haydock) but he is in a race where I actually like two or three of the runners so is no bet. He is much too short now anyhow. I also really like the look of SUPER SAY in that race too but it looks open.

Another one that is jumping out at me is MEGLIO ANCORA (9.20 Ham). The omen of leaving it till the last race on the card hopefully coming good again. He caught the eye when being beaten by Spirit of Gondree (the day we were on) at Wolverhampton in January and is ridiculously well handicapped on some of his old form (rated mid 80’s). He had a spin over hurdles last month to blow away some cobwebs and should be just about right. Graham Lee rides for the first time to add some extra spice. Today may not be the day but the 14/1+ available is much too tempting to leave him alone.

Looking forward to game one of the Stanley Cup Finals tonight. I will have to watch it on record as I’m off to Yarmouth however. If your around at the track tomorrow do come and say hello. I’ll be the plonker with the mic.

Be lucky,

MG

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Weekly Review!

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Morning peeps. I trust that you are all well and enjoying what is shaping up to be an excellent summer of sport (no Coral TV pun intended). Really enjoying the action from the ICC Champions Trophy. The outright market is the most out of shape market I have ever seen on a sporting event! It still amazes me how over bet England are in just about every sporting event. The value at the start was with the Indians but that has well and truly gone now. Good to hear the tones of Wooders at all the grounds as well. He really is the best in the business by some way.

Look back at the first ten days of June on the racing and things have gone pretty well this month. I actually started this months figures off on the 31st as I’d settled May’s books and I’m glad I did as JUST PAUL went in at 14/1. He’d been on the radar for a long time having gone in the notebook last year. Things finally fell right and he got the month off to a flyer. A poor two days at Epsom except for the place money on GALILEO ROCK in the Derby. On the 4th things didn’t exactly go to plan as decent bets on ROUGH ROCK at Yarmouth and HONOURED at Ripon went west, although the Honoured losses were recouped very quickly when he won well at Nottingham on Sunday. On the 7th MANKINI landed a max as well as Alceus who won well again then AL MANAAL was as close to a certainty as I have ever found yesterday at Brighton.

Proform continues to amaze me. It is a really useful piece of kit and if you havent had the opportunity to test it out yet you must do so. Check out the website for more details. http://www.proformracing.com Simon will answer any questions you may have.

Here are some stats for you from Proform for the last 14 days:

Exceptional win and place strike rates with at least 5 runner:

William Haggas 73.33%

David Rees 66.67%

Malcom Saunders 62.50 %

Having gone through the racing in some detail today I have manged to come up with a few selections. I think that RAUSHAN will probably win at Salisbury (3.30). Only had one start and goes into handicaps on a fair mark with un-tapped potential. MY GIGI looks overpriced to me in the 4.05. The two best bets though look to be GHANAIAN (4.35) and PRESS ROOM (9.00 Ling) the latter being the most interesting horse running anywhere today. The colt by Street Cry only had two starts as a two-year old, finishing fourth on debut before winning fairly comfortably at Wolverhampton. An opening mark of 73 does not look harsh in any way shape or form and with the potential improvement in the tank means he looks like he could be a very well handicapped horse off that mark. He comes out miles clear on the PROFORM POWER RATINGS for this race aswell and the 4/1 this morning was snapped up as the nap of the day.

A couple of horses to go into the notebook this week. FIFTYSHADES OFGREY and SUNRISE STAR were both Maiden eye catchers on Friday as was Archive at Leicester last Monday. Blessing Box went into the notebook on handicap debut at Yarmouth too.

Outside of racing it has been a great week of sport. The Bruins swept the Penguins 4-0 to take their place in a second Stanley Cup Final in three years. Going to be another couple of great weeks and late nights as they battle the Chicago Blackhawks.

Must crack on today, got an incredibly busy few days. Coral TV this morning followed by Timeform Radio tonight, then I’m off to Great Yarmouth for a couple of days of presenting before back for cricket at the weekend. There are some very interesting entries over the coming days so I will keep you up to date.

All the best today.

Be Lucky

MG

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BING BONG, stewards enquiry, stewards enquiry!

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There are certain things in our sport that drive us mad. Small number cloths, awful rides, non triers, pathetic each way terms, being stuck in the 1960’s…..and so on. Then there are the things that tip you over the edge. Yet again the winning margin has lured the stewards into amending a result when the simple fact of the matter is the better horse won on the day. At the end of a grueling three miles and half a furlong both Rebel Swing and Bishophill Jack under Samantha Drake and Nick Scholfield respectively are out on their feet climbing the Towcester mountain. Both jump the last markedly right-handed before both horses then drifted back towards the rail in a tight finish. Samantha Drake tried her best to change her whip hand but just didn’t have the time, or ability in which to do so. Rebel swing held on in a tight finish and other than a small bump 40 yards from the line there was minimal contact. Now the stewards have come to the conclusion that had there been no interference, Bishophill Jack would have won. Pardon? If they had both run in a straight line over the last, Rebel Swing would have won. Fact.

The inconsistencies within the stewards is baffling and this has finally drawn me to the conclusion that we need to move on and have full-time professional stewards. To rub salt into the wound Samantha was handed a two-day ban………..she has my full sympathy.

 Most of you will know that most of my video study is concentrated on handicaps but I have stuck a few in the notebook from maidens over the last week. DISKO caught my eye at Bath last week and is one to note. As is WIKI TIKI who ran at Windsor on Monday night. Twice now Wiki Tiki has run over 5f and been readily outpaced despite travelling ok. On pedigree she is likely to need at least a mile, probably further and I would expect to see her over 5 or 6 again soonish to get a mark and she might then be held back for a nursery later in the year off a very workable mark. A slightly more obvious one was COSSETED who ran at Nottingham this week in the colours of Cheveley Park. Stayed on really nicely into 2nd with the jockey taking things very easily.

From the last seven days my handicapper to follow is GLOSSY POSSE from the Richard Hannon stable. She endured a really troubled passage at Doncaster last week and Richard Hughes gave up a long way out when he was still travelling very well as she was never going to get close. This was over seven furlongs and she is likely to appreciate a step up in trip too (by Dubawi out of a Fantastic Light mare) and looks like a well handicapped filly off 66!

Today’s cards are tough and I don’t have any eye catchers running. One horse that I do think is interesting to a degree though is RIDGEWAY HAWK (5.20 Southwell). I’m not really an each way punter but he looks a bit of a first three certainty. He can find trouble but he goes well here and is likely to reverse the form with Thorpe Bay from a couple of runs back and maybe we could play it with one point to win and two points to place on the old Betfair machine!

Working on Coral TV today with Martin Kelly. So I will be doing my best to try to make him laugh or mess things up through the day.

Great news that West Ham have made big moves already signing Rat from Shaktar looks a very good piece of business and we have agreed a deal with Liverpool for Andy Carroll. Fingers crossed the personal terms can be agreed. The Bruins won game three last night too and now lead 3-0. A place in the conference finals is within touching distance!

If anyone has a cure for Psoriasis please let me know. Mine has gone bonkers.

Be lucky today,

MG

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