A couple to keep on side this evening……

Proform

Afternoon all. A couple of lovely results yesterday with Mischief Maisy getting very well backed from 20’s into 10’s and getting a very good ride to win. That may well be the limit of her ability but we bagged it on the good day. Mister Bob drifted all day right out to 10/1 then duly did the business too so good results all round. Refulgence is finally, off the list.

Just a couple to note that are running this evening.

7.30 Newbury – Loaded – 9/1 Generally – 1pt win

I think he’s a nice horse and potentially a bit better than his opening mark of 82 suggests. At Chester last time I think he hated the undulations and looked certain to want a bit further in time. A few of these have already played their hands in handicaps where as this lad looks cherry ripe for tonight.

9.10 Newbury – Siri & Severus – 25/1 & 16/1 2x 1pt singles.

A couple to play against the field in the concluding handicap on the card. You have to be forgiving for both last runs but I’m happy to do so. Siri messed about in the stalls at Carlisle, got restless and missed the break. They went no real pace and she was always on the back foot and not persevered with. She is better than that and can prove it tonight. I’m astonished she’s 25/1, if you watch the video back from Sandown the time before she was desperately unlucky not to win what was a better race than this.

Severus hated the heavy ground over a mile at Newmarket last time and drops back to seven on fast ground this evening. He travelled up strongly to a point that day and today should suit much more. They are both rated 72 but with the allowances Siri gets 8lbs off Severus so I slightly favour her. Play them both against the field of largely exposed beasts.

Good luck

Mg

Proform

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One or two for today….

Proform

I know, I know… it’s been like forever. I’m over it, hopefully you are too.

A rare summers day off today and a couple of horses have popped up on the tracker that I feel I should probably pass on for you today from my recent video analysis.

MISTER BOB – 7.45 Kempton. 8/1 with Betway/Betfair.

He was a rather large eye catcher when we last saw him at Wolves on 31st May. A race where they went no pace at all which didn’t help this hold up beast. He’s handicapped to win and with that having blown away any cobwebs he looks sure to run a big race tonight if he is wanted. They should go a good gallop here which will help with Starcrossed likely to go forward and Music Man also a prominent racer helping to push things along, we should get a good gallop to run at. Ted is on board which is not great so we may be watching through our fingers again close home. If he’s ready and the gaps come he’s well worth backing.

Dalavand – 3.10 Yarmouth – 13/8 Generally

Has been on the radar to pick up a small handicap for a while. Drops into a very weak seller today and you’d be desperately disappointed if he didn’t win.

Mischief Maisy – 3.30 Lingfield – 20/1 General, massive on BF.

She’s just one to follow, maybe for 3/4 runs. She has more ability than her mark will suggest and a step to a mile and a half looks a good thing. She was given a very interesting ride at Brighton last time. Worry today is they may have too much pace for her around here but she is one for your trackers and small stakes. Especially in place markets etc. She’s likely to go in at a massive price at some point.

Refulgence – 3.40 Yarmouth – Any price you like?

She’s been in my tracker for ages, for one reason only. It’s looked to me for a long time like she wants middle distances but Marco Botti has kept her to a mile up until now. She nearly sneaked in last time (head in hands moment) at 25/1 but just failed to get there over the extended 8.5f at Wolves. First attempt at ten furlongs today, so she’s on the list, unless she gets beat!

Have a great day!

Mg

Proform

What happened to 2015?

Proform

Spending such an enormous amount of time on the road as a broadcaster means that days, weeks and months just seem to fly by. I cannot believe we are already half way through May, the first test match of the summer is two days away and the longest day of the year just four weeks from now. Where has the time gone?

Anyway, I hope everyone is having a great year to date? Backing loads of winners and generally rolling in it. I know I haven’t blogged, well at all since my last promise in September. Lots gets in the way. Mostly laziness I’m sure.

Personally I’m not a big fan of racing in April. Year on year it is my worst month. Once Cheltenham is done with, the jumps falls off a cliff and the early season turf form can be so erratic, even if certain trends to tend to produce profits each year. I enjoy Chester and York, but once they are out the way, all the patterns tend to settle down and we can really crack on.

As things stand there are 79 horses on my very interesting list. I won’t bore you with all of them in one hit as that will take all day, but over the coming days I will certainly highlight the ones that are entered and why they have gone in the book. You can then all take your own personally views on how to deal with them. First up here’s a few that are entered today.

FLEURTILLE (4.40 Newcastle) 28/1

Probably a horse that should have been scrubbed off my list a while back, but I’m just going to see how today pans out. Clearly we have no idea how Newcastle’s new all weather track will ride but a lot of her peak figures were at Newcastle on turf. She’s down to near her last winning mark and after a quiet 2015, it will be no surprise to see her run well. The comeback run was encouraging although her one run on the all weather (albeit 3 years ago) was awful. She’s likely to be a massive price, probably 50’s+ on @Betfair so you haven’t got to spend big to have a tiny interest.

GERRY THE GLOVER (4.10 Newcastle) 16/1

Had a good year last year and progressed nicely. I think he is better than 88 and might win a decent pot this summer. First ever run on the all weather today which is a bit of an unknown but he actually ran ok on a track that wouldn’t suit his style on his re-appearance and I would not be at all surprised if he went well today. He is probably another one for your trackers and will hopefully grab a decent pot this year. He’s 25’s plus on the machine so again, small stakes for an interest. There is a chance that the favourite (PERIL) is still well ahead of his mark.

LAUGHTON (3.15 Nottingham) 9/2

I really like him. If he doesn’t end up considerably better than a mark of 71 by the end of the year then I’d have got him completely wrong. You can easily put a line through his comeback run. He was pitched out wide and in truth given a poor ride. I’ve felt for a while like 6 furlongs will suit more than 5 and Nottingham will be much more to his liking. Clearly I don’t want Jamie Spencer to give the others too much rope, the dogs are well and truly barking about Mutarajjil but you should never be afraid of one animal. I believe he could be a 90+ horse so if that is the case, you would hope he could go very well today at this level. Probably an absolute each way steal at 9/2.

Others to note…….

Mr Haggas made no bones about how he felt about Fadillah in an interview at the Craven meeting. She won her maiden over a mile three weeks ago when the penny dropped late on. The third from that race absolutely bolted up at Chester and with the step up in trip she is likely to laugh at her opening mark of 76 before going to the Oaks. If you like her for Epsom back her this morning as she will only shorten if she’s impressive.

That is just a taster of where we are at today. Will update you all with plenty more over the coming days.

All the best

MG

Proform

Today’s racing blog #HorseRacing

Proform

Morning all. I hope today’s blog finds you well. Hopefully you are not a pound overweight and haven’t dispensed with your slippers in order to do todays correct weight. I have had to lose the shoes, bag, trousers, shirt, underwear and I’ve still been jocked off. Seriously what was Seb thinking? Have an actual full day off today which means you know the cricket season is coming to an end! I will be slouched on the sofa for a lot of the day watching the ODI and keeping my eye on events at New Road as we cheer Sussex to victory in the LV=County Championship. Obviously I want Sussex to stay up, but also tipped up Worcester for relegation. A win for Sussex today/tomorrow is close to a double whammy! I will also be finishing off my jumps horses to follow which I’ll be sending out soon.

I’ll kick things off with a few stats from Proform. Simon and the team are holding training seminars on the Proform software throughout the Autumn at various locations around the UK. You can find all the details on the website if you click on the Proform logo it will take you directly there.

Here are a lost of trainers that have exceptional win and place strike rates over the last 14 days:

Jed O’Keeffe 87.50%

Iain Jardine 70%

John Ferguson 68.75%

Jose Santos 66.67%

Saeed Bin Suroor 65.38%

M O’Callaghan 60%

One note of caution on those stats are that although Jed’s runners are running very well. He hasn’t had a winner but 7/8 have placed at prices ranging from 9/4 to 16/1. Three of those runners traded odds on in the run too. He has Desert Ruler entered in a couple of nurseries over the coming days who could be interesting. Iain Jardine’s horses are running well and he has Push Me entered in the 3.55 at Sedgefield today. He’s been pretty well backed but would need a career best. Still interesting to a degree.

Good card at Salisbury today but I found it hard to eek out any value anywhere. I do think that MELODIOUS is worth backing in CGA “PERSIAN PUNCH” CONDITIONS STAKES at 4.50. She gets weight off the favourite and with the step up in trip arguably going to bring about a bit of improvement, there is a case to say she could be favourite herself. Flying officer is 8/11 and she is 15/8. Well worth backing at that price.

I’m quite keen on the chances of STAR RIDER (6.45 Chelmsford) for Hughie Morrison. She loved the surface at Chelmsford when winning her maiden. She has hinted a few times on turf that she is still potentially better than her current mark and this is the weakest race she has run in this season. Back here with Charlie Bennett claiming 7lbs I think she is potentially on a really nice mark and is well worth a go. She is readily available at 5/1.

They are the two for me today. Be back tomorrow with more bits and pieces.

Be lucky

MG

Proform

Friday’s action…

Proform

Morning one and all. I hope and trust all is well and that you’ve all been smashing in winners left right and centre. After a dismal day hosting Sussex vs Essex on Wednesday in the Royal London Cup (not due to the cricket, but due to the weather) I finally managed to get back on the horse on the racing front in the last 24 hours or so. Had a good go on Tasleet in the opener at York yesterday. My main bet of the day though was on the Godolphin filly Mistrusting in the last. After her win in the four runner handicap at Newmarket last week I’d convinced myself that she was a potential group horse. I think the way she travelled through the race yesterday lead me to believe that again, it was a nervy last 100 yards but she held on well, possibly just idling in front.

I have started going through the videos, so within a few days we will have a nice big bank of eye catchers and horses to follow. Before we get on to today’s racing, just thought I should give a mention to the test match. It is a really flat pitch. A typical five day Oval pitch. The Aussies showed yesterday that if you get through those early overs, then the afternoon is normally a batters paradise. The next two days are set for very good weather, then there are storms and rain forecast for Sunday and Monday. The draw is available at 7/4 in places this morning. Providing England bat well later on today I cannot see this being anything other than a draw. I think the prices are wrong. I’ve backed the draw. If today follows a similar pattern to yesterday, then I expect the draw will be about 4/7 by the close of play. Tradetastic for all you that like to “cash out”.

I’m still coming to terms with the fact that I can’t click a race replay on RacingPost.com whilst looking at a race. The basic membership is about £14 a month now, and £26 if you include all the tipping pages. Cannot imagine that anyone is paying for that. I use the basic package but only due to the fact that all of my notes are stored on the database. Once I upgrade my office computer, I think I many well transfer all my notes onto the Proform database so that it’s all in one place. Taking the videos off the website I’m sure is a big mistake.

Found the opening race at York difficult. Plenty of possibilities, but nothing that leapt out for a bet. I don’t have a strong opinion in the Yorkshire Cup either. I wouldn’t be surprised if anyone of them won to be honest.

First bet of the day will be Richard Pankhurst in the Sky Bet City Of York Stakes at 3.05. I know he’s only had two starts and has had 426 days off since winning the Chesham last year but that was a really taking victory, one that suggested he was going to be better than listed class. He is in great hands and I’m sure he’ll be ready. He is a general 13/2 chance this morning, if that had been at this years Royal Ascot he’d be 6/4 so I think he represents value and if he is anywhere near his best; I think he’ll be really hard to beat. I will be having a small saver on Short Squeeze. He was given one of the rides of the season in a big handicap here last year by Smullen and he is back on board today. Whilst he is probably better at a mile, there is a good chance this will be frantic. Salateen, Toocoolforschool and Glory Awaits all have double figure pace figures on Proform so I’m expecting a strong gallop and this brings Short Squeeze into calculations. At 12/1 I’ll be saving on him.

On to the feature race of the day the Nunthorpe at 3.4o and I cannot get away from ACAPULCO. She ran to a topspeed figure of 110 at Ascot. Only Muthmir (111) has run anywhere near that this season. She gets a 24lb allowance from her elders here which whatever way you look at it makes her very very hard to beat. Tactics may be important. There is the smallest chance things could get to her jockey Irad Ortiz Jr, who is not guaranteed to get the best of receptions from the patriotic’s. The Nunthorpe is a race that can throw up an odd result too. All things said, I honestly could’t go against her. I hope she wins. Whether she is bankable at 2/1 or not I’ll leave up to you. She might go in a multiple.

acapulco-easton-angel_3315932

I’ll jump to the evening card at Wolverhampton for the next interest. BUSH BEAUTY (8.20) is mildly interesting in the class 6, 6 furlong handicap. Normally better over slightly longer she needs a real test at six to figure but I think we may well get that tonight as Cloak And Degas, Captain Future, Bosham and Indian Affair all like to rattle along. We have to forgive the run last time but she has never shown much on turf. Back on tapeta she is drawn in stall 2 so Rachel Richardson can just pop out and take her time. If they go stupid up front then she will be a big player when they turn for home. She comes out top on the PROFORM  ratings by some way too. She’s 10/1 in places this morning and must represent a fairly good each way bet.

At Sandown in the opener I thought KOMEDY (2.20) may be interesting. She has a piece of form (debut) that would make her particularly interesting off an opening mark of 64. Her last run in a maiden certainly smacked of “nursery type” and the yard are in much better form than earlier in the year. I’ve had a small interest on her at 7/1.

On a totally separate note, the Redskins went 2-0 in pre-season last night after beating Detroit 21-17, that unfortunately though does not tell the story. The first two quarters, the offensive line decided not to block for RG3, he got hit 7 times and sacked 3 more. He ended with a  busted shoulder and a concussion. This is clearly unacceptable and this needs to be addressed as soon as possible. We moved the ball with ease once Colt McCoy came in. It was all too similar a story to last year when RG3 was in. The pocket was collapsing with ridiculous ease. I hope there is no skulduggery going on.

For the first time I’m starting to think that it might be time to trade him as there are clearly some trust issues within the team.

Have a good day today, be lucky.

MG

Proform

Friday’s selection at a big price

Proform

Just a couple to note today. The first of which I’m quite keen on a big price. I like the chances of Divine Call (5.45 Wolverhampton) who has been running ok in similar races without troubling the judge. Again last time out here he was only beaten 2 lengths in the end despite being last turning for home. Under both of his last two rides I scribbled “would be very interesting under Baker” and hey presto! George is riding today. He will be patient, he will probably need some luck and will certainly need a pace to run at but with Spowarticus in the field, coupled with several young riders, I think they might go a real good clip. If they do and George can time things right then he is surely overpriced off a mark that is 6lbs lower than his last winning one. There are obvious dangers but Risk N Reward has been winning at Southwell and needs a career best on a track he hasn’t sparkled at so happy to take him on. I thought ITALIAN TOM might be the main danger. He has dropped to a very dangerous mark and is probably worth monitoring. All in all Divine Call looks a real interesting each way bet at a swanky price.

DIVINE CALL – 2pts each way @ 12/1 with Bet365 & WilliamHill

The second horse I will back today is LAST SHADOW (2.30 Kempton). Won off 105 on reappearance at Uttoxeter back in November before an average effort off today’s mark on New Years Day. That was right in the middle of Jonjo’s cold snap and with the yard absolutely thriving over the last few days it is not hard to see him continue that potential promise of improvement today.

LAST SHADOW – 2 pts win @ 7/2 generally.

Of the remainder well it will be great to see WEST WIZARD back on course this afternoon. He has hinted on both occasions that he has been beat that a step up in trip might be the making of him. He is 33/1 for the Neptune this morning, that might look a very big price come 2.10 this afternoon. I hope he wins really well. Elsewhere I thought THE FRIARY was very interesting up in trip at Bangor (3.15). Whilst at Wolverhampton tonight I liked the look of TOP COP in the opener (5.15) as there is plenty of pace on there and he might just sit and pounce down in grade. Steve Rogers should win again up in trip and Cookie Ring ran better than the form suggests last time. Stepping up to seven should suit him and he is the least exposed in that race.

All in all good to have a full day’s racing back. Let’s hope George can pull all the string s later on!

Be lucky!

MG

Proform

Thursdays racing

Proform

Morning peeps.  One of those days today where several horses that I have been waiting for are all going and we seemed to have been found some opportunities.

We will start proceedings with TELEGRAPH (2.55 Wolverhampton) who would surely have won last time out with better luck in running. He is currently down to his last winning mark of 57 (equal lowest) and should really have picked up the prize last time out when being trapped on the inside rail and having to be pulled back by John Egan on at least two occasions. As they turned for home both he and the well backed winner went for the same gap, the winner got it and again Egan had to switch, once he regained momentum it was too late and he went down by half a length. This today is a weaker race and whilst I respect one or two who are down to basement marks, I would be disappointed if Telegraph were not good enough.

TELEGRAPH 2 pts win @ 2/1 with SKYBET (Best odds guaranteed).

I really like the chances of CABAL (4.05 Wolverhampton) to follow up his victory from last week. He won well last week when pulling clear with another notebook horse that is also well handicapped after tanking through the race. This if anything looks weaker than that contest and with only a 4lb rise to contend with it is hard to see him not winning again. There is money this morning for the top two which is good news. They are regularly backed but rarely perform and it has pushed our price right out.

CABAL –  4 pts win @ 3/1 with SportingBet. (BOG).

Another with outstanding claims today is CELESTINE ABBEY (4.35) who with slightly more luck would have gone close to winning last time with a better run. Held up last the race developed around her and she never had a chance to land a blow. That was a 0-65 and she has dropped down to 0-55 company this afternoon with the handicapper also generously dropping her another 3lbs. This puts her just a pound above her last winning mark and she should be up to taking this weak affair.

CELESTINE ABBEY 3 pts win @11/4 with Boylesports/Betway.

I feel inclined to throw a point at LITTLE CHOOSEY (6.40 Chelmsford) who we backed last time. She didn’t have the best of runs, constantly wide and giving away ground. The winner that day was ridden by Ali Rawlinson and it’s interesting he takes this ride today as he is perfect for her. If he can sit as quietly as possible on her till as late as possible then I think she’s likely to go close in a race where several of these have something to find.

LITTLE CHOOSEY 1 pt win @ 11/2 generally (BOG).

The 7.10 at Chelmsford is an interesting contest and case can be made for several of the runners. There is so much pace in here however that I felt it might be worth chancing a point on LONG AWAITED. He ran well in some better races last term and might just find several of these falling into his lap late on if he is ready to go after a break.

LONG AWAITED 1 pt win @ 7/2 generally.

I will also place Telegraph, Cabal and Celestine Abbey in a 1 pt treble. Which pays 39/1 via oddschecker.

Be Lucky

MG

Proform

Wednesdays action!

Proform

Apologies don’t have much time this morning but will quickly blast through today’s selections.

WALK LIKE A GIANT – 2.30 Chelmsford – 1 pt win @ 9/2 generally.

THIRD STRIKE/DUKE OF DUNTON 2.35 Kempton – 1 pt win each @ 10/1 @ 9/2.

WENTWORTH FALLS 3.40 Chelmsford – 3 pts win @ 15/8

RIZAL PARK 4.45 Kempton – 2 pts win @ 9/2

Be lucky

MG

Proform

Tuesday blog!

Proform

More crossbar hitting action again yesterday. Sea Tiger travelled well through the race but got locked in a pocket against the rail as they came down the hill and quickened things up. He barged through to finish fourth without having a hard race and will be of obvious interest over the coming weeks off a basement mark, it was very encouraging how much money came for him.

I’m still not quite sure how Rat Catcher didn’t win. I suspect now that he actually got to the front too soon and is going to be a horse you have to produce on the line. He traded at 1.18 in running. Still he was always going to be an each way certainty in that line up so no damage done and we go again.

We have lost the two jump meetings today so the action revolves around Southwell and Kempton. I’m on Coral TV duties today so I’ll keep it short and sweet.

I’m sure I’m not the only person that added BENNELONG to the horse watcher after his run at Lingfield four days ago. He was held up off a steady pace by his inexperienced rider and never got into the race despite never coming off the bridle. He has dropped to his last winning mark of 59 and has generally saved his best performances for Kempton so in a weak looking race he must come here with outstanding claims. He is a strong traveller that is versatile in his run style but I would exect Amir to have him close to the pace in here.

BENNELONG 3.15 Kempton Park- 2.5 pts win @ 7/2 generally (best odds guaranteed)

I’m sure we have a great opportunity to back ARTIST CRY (4.40 Southwell) this afternoon to get off the mark for Richard Fahey. Progressed with each of three runs in maidens and was actually unlucky not to go close last time after some trouble in running and being well backed. Have the feeling a mark of 60 probably underestimates him and I would be disappointed if he was not good enough to win this.

ARTIST CRY – 4.40 SOUTHWELL – 4pts win @ 9/4 (William Hill – Best odds guaranteed)

Be lucky today

MG

Proform

Two selections go in Monday’s log

Proform

Morning peeps. Left slightly frustrated yesterday as things didn’t go my way. At Chelmsford you had to be right on the pace to have any chance so that didn’t pan out. I thought we’d nicked a biggie on KRUZHLININ who went off at a BFSP of 22.4 and traded at 1.17 jumping the last but got chinned by the progressive horse in the race. That was an interesting prep run for his national campaign. I’m sure that plenty of you may have traded out in running for a profit. Bravo if you did.

Unfortunate we’ve lost the jumping action today but we have two fairly decent Monday cards on the all-weather and I do like the look of a few. First up we got to the last race on the card at Lingfield (4.20) to back SEA TIGER. He’s not had much racing to date with just nine starts all told and has dropped right down to a basement mark of 45. He hinted (again) last time that a step up in trip might bring about a bit of improvement and he gets that today. My one worry about the race is that there is hardly any natural pace in here so this potentially could get messy. Hopefully Pat Cosgrave will go forward from stall one (has a sleeper in Munsarim in two) and just sit handy to pounce. We will need some luck and a bit of improvement but both are possible so at 20/1 I think we can throw a bullet at it.

SEA TIGER 1 pt win @ 20/1 BET365 and William Hill.

We have to back RAT CATCHER (5.40 Wolverhamton) later on too. He’s thrown in on some of his back form and has ben running well without winning of late. Although I think he might want six furlongs now this is going to be fast and furious and having been drawn in stall one, Rob Hornby will be able to take his time and pounce as late as possible. Obviously in this type of race we may need a bit of luck but if the gaps appear then I think he will go very close to winning and can’t see him out the frame.

RAT CATCHER 2 pts each way @ 5/1 generally.

Be lucky!

MG

Proform