Sunday 31st December Racing Notes

Evening all. Having had a good delve in to the racing on the final day of 2017, I have come across one or two that are worth throwing a couple of quid at.

First up I’ll give you some latest Proform Stats that could help with your punting today.

Trainers In Form:

Trainers with a win & pl strike rate of over 50% over the last 10 days.
Nick Williams 85.71%
Mark Johnston 80%
Michael Easterby  66.67%
T Lacey 66.67%
John Butler 60%
Robert Stephens 60 %
Kim Bailey 57.14%
Jennie Candlish  54.55%
Simon Dow 50%
C Byrnes 50%

 

NATIVE ROBIN (2.35 Warwick) caught the eye and went in the horse watcher on the back of his run at Exeter a month ago. He’s been out of sorts since his return to the track after 18 months on the side lines but at Exeter showed a bit more when getting outpaced over a trip short of his best, before running on a bit once beaten. He’s been dropped another 3lbs for that so is now 6lbs lower than his last winning mark. Add into the mix going back up in trip and a drop in grade back to a 0-105 and he looks an interesting contender. If he’s come on for those two runs he’s a decent bet.

On the opening shows he is available at 6/1 general. 2 pts win.

ADMIRAL BLAKE (3.00 UTTOX) is another well handicapped beast that should be monitored in the betting. Testing conditions are no problem for him and his run in what turned out to be a betting farce at Exeter last time should not be underestimated. Although beaten a long way he plugged on ok at a trip short of his best. Having won at the turn of the year off 75 & 82 a couple of years ago, he should be very capable back down to this basement mark. James Best takes back over in the saddle and he gets in this race off a lovely racing weight of 10 stone. Not beyond the realm of possibility that he returns to some form here.

At 16/1 (Bet365) he is definitely worth having a point each way.

Nap of the day though without doubt has to be MYSTIQUE MOON (1.45 Lingfield). The son of Shamardal has won two of his three starts so far, only losing out to another rapidly progressive Godolphin inmate last time out at Chelmsford. He’s been raised 9lbs for being beaten last time but that race is full of decent form. His successor Arabian Hope won the Ganton Stakes (Listed) at York. Native Soldier won off 75 and Ebbesbourne won off 80. Whilst plenty of these are on the way down, Mystique Moon is still on the up and can take this with a view to being back here on Good Friday.¬† Alfred Hutchinson is well handicapped and likes it here so should be a danger and monitor the run of Cherbourg. Out of the weights here, but may end up better than this mark at some point in the near future.

Opened at 11/4 tonight with Bet365. I’d be surprised if he was better than 6/4 at the off. 3 pts win @ 2/1 general price.

Will update any others later.

MG

 

 

 

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A look at the Stanley Cup (NHL) mid season markets……

Seasons greetings and all. I trust you have had a wonderful festive period and you are looking forward to the new gym membership in the new year! With racing at its quietest point of the year for me personally I have taken the last day or so to go through the markets in the other sports that I have a long-term interest in. The turn of the year is always a decent time to look at the NHL as we are pretty much at the mid-season point and there are always a few ricks from the books as they are fairly lazy about the prices as they really don’t see much long-term money for them. I have managed to find a few that are of definite interest and hopefully you can get a few shillings on before they cut them.

I will apologise in advance for the first one as I’m not sure how much you will really be able to get on but the biggest mistake in the outright market is for the VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS who are currently 33/1 with 188Bet. They are also the wrong price to win their division but I’ll get to that in a moment.

A brand new franchise this year, they recruited very well. Shot data is excellent and they have been imperious at home. The Golden Knights currently have the 2nd best record in the league, lead the Western Conference and therefore should not be anywhere near 33/1. They are generally around a 16/1 chance which is more in line with their actual price (although I think that is still on the high side). As I said, I don’t what you will get on but the 33/1 should be taken before it disappears. Please have some on for me too whilst you’re at it!!

The Vegas lads should also be backed to win their division with Coral/Ladbrokes at 7/2. I struggle to see both Anaheim and San Jose making up the ground on LA and Vegas. I have it as a two runner affair, therefore the 7/2 looks a good bet as in reality they should be around 2/1.

Second error on the outright market are the vastly improved NEW JERSEY DEVILS. Second in the Eastern Conference and with a 22-9-5 record, the Devils are starting to roll. Most firms have wised to it but 888 sport and Unibet are both 30/1. That is too big for a team of their quality.

HOT TEAMS

Teams improving at a rate of knots are always dangerous when it comes to the back-end of the season and there are two to keep an eye on. The Washington Capitals are post season regulars and have looked much better over the last month or so. They are 16/1 with Boylesports in the outright market and that is another price to be interested in. They are 7/2 to win the Metropolitan Division and I’d be looking to get heavily involved in that price if it wasn’t for the Devils being in there too (5/1). Split stakes on the two would not be your worst bet of 2017.

The other one, and this is not biased in any way is the Boston Bruins. The B’s are hot going 8-1-1 in their last ten and seem to have finally shaken the TD Garden voodoo with a much better home record this year. Boston’s youngsters have added some real depth and whilst they cannot catch Tampa for the division, William Hill’s view that they are a 33/1 shot to go all the way is wrong.

Finally I’ll finish with my main bet, and that is the NASHVILLE PREDATORS to win the Central Division at 2/1 with Bet365. I won’t go in-depth other than to say I think they are the best team in that division and having played fewer games than the chasing pack, I think they are going to be very hard to knock off the top. They are about a 5/4 shot so the 2/1 is a nice price.

Outright:

Vegas Golden Knights (*what you can at 33/1)

New Jersey Devils – 1pt @ 30/1

Washington Capitals – 2pts @ 16/1

Boston Bruins – 1 pt @33/1

Whilst this is 3/1 Eastern Conference heavy, you could add Nashville if you wanted to be evenly split.

Divisions:

Vegas (Pacific) – 2pts @ 7/2

Washington/NJ (Metropolitan) 2 pts Wash @ 7/2 (Lads/Coral) 1 pt NJ @ 5/1 general.

Nashville (Central) 5 pts win @ 2/1.

15 pts outlay.

Hopefully these will give you plenty of fun across the remainder of the season, and more importantly some decent profit.

All the best

MG