Trying to find a golden nugget for the coming weeks…

Evening one and all. Hope this post finds everyone well and full of winners. An interesting week in the racing world with nothing much happening in terms of major news, other than Aidan O’Brien getting ever closer to Bobby Frankel’s record for group one winners. Enable will also stay in training at four, which is fantastic news. Longchamp anyone?

My one note from the action the past week or so would be that I’ve convinced myself that Clemmie is now the real deal. Given her pedigree she is surely going to improve for going up in trip and is very exciting. Whether she goes on to win the Guineas next spring is something we have to wait seven months to find out. One thing I’m pretty sure of though is if she doesn’t run again this season and she turns up at Newmarket in May, she’ll be 6/4 on the day, so if you like long-term investments, the 4/1 around is probably for you.

For those of you that follow my ante-post NFL prop bets it was great to see Leonard Fournette have a big weekend. Through five weeks he now has 466 yards and the each way money at 40/1 for leading rusher is definitely a live voucher. Whilst I still have him outside the top three, the way the Jag’s D keeps them in games, their run first nature can only assist in the rookie having a big first season. Let’s hope he stays healthy.

Right so this week, with little time on my hands I wanted to take a slightly different approach and just see if I could find a little nugget for the upcoming jumps season. I started off playing around with the Proform system builder and looking at the fate of favourites and horses at the front of the market to see if I could see any glaring angles.

Not an awful lot showed up, other than similarly to the flat, there are a handful of tracks where favourites have an excellent record. So I changed tack slightly and given we are at the start of the season I started to look at trainers that have their horses in good nick on the back of a break. So I ran a query in to Proform looking at all trainers performance in National Hunt races (chase, hurdle & NHF) on the back of a minimum 60 day break. This threw up plenty of profitable trainers but almost of them were on the back of the odd massive priced winner that skewed the P&L figures.

So again a bit of trimming down and I decided to limit the next search to handicaps only and now we start to pick up one or two potential angles. Five trainers stood out with exceptional strike rates and a lovely healthy profit. I won’t mention them all but I’ll certainly give a positive mention to Olly Murphy who has had a terrific start to his training career in 2017.

From the above criteria, Olly has had 12 runners and 4 winners. So as the winter progresses, he is certainly someone to keep an eye on.

The trainer that stood out above everyone else though was the excellent KEITH DALGLEISH. These figures are represented as always from Jan 1st 2010.

Keith has had just 26 runners in handicaps chases/hurdles in that time on the back of 60+ days off the track, of which 13 have gone on to win with a profit of 41.26pts to BFSP. That is a 50% winning strike rate. What is just as interesting about these figures is that of the 13 that got beat, 9 of those traded at 50% or less of their BFSP in running. So there is no doubt at all that Keith has his horses bouncing and ready to roll in the national hunt season on the back of a break in handicaps. Certainly an interesting angle for all of you that like to trade pre-race or in running.

One thing I would add in to the argument is that all of the winners were priced between 6/4 and 8/1 which would suggest that they were well fancied too. If we run the system again looking at his runners that had an SP of less than 9/1, suddenly the strike rate leaps to 72.22% (83.33% win & place). A total of 13 winners from 18 runners.

So whilst it’s short and sweet this week, and won’t throw up that many selections. When Keith Dalgleish  has a runner in a handicap hurdle or chase on the back of a minimum 60 day break and is a single figure price, you should probably have it on side.

I’m open to any kind of suggestion for something to look at for next week. Feel free to post in the comments and I will take a look.

Have a top week. Thank god the international break is over!

Mark

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Early season jumps form from Proform. Who was hot in 2016?

Afternoon one and all. Great to see how many of you have been engaging about the potential of using the Proform software to enhanced your betting experiences. Had several emails and messages to look at some angles for various friends on Twitter and we have highlighted one or two interesting angles.

I have barely touched the jumps scene yet and this is something that I am concentrating on for most of this week. The speed figures and power ratings when used correctly are very powerful indeed on the flat and the all-weather. Now I need to put them to proper use over the sticks too.

One thing I know is always of interest early on is the constant reference to trainers that “do well in October” or “have them well forward early”. So what I did for a little bit of fun today is just run a very quick query in to Proform to see how the profitable trainers performed early season in 2016.

So I looked at all trainers form last year for October and November over hurdles, chases and bumpers. I added in a couple of parameters in to the mix to only give us trainers over 20% strike rate, that showed an overall profit, plus one or two other requirements. This is what we ended up with…..

So an interesting collection of trainers that had their string well forward at the beginning of last season. One or two obvious names in there. From these names I just had a quick gander at the winners from the opening jumps meeting at Chepstow. Rebecca Curtis was 3/10, whilst Paul Nicholls, Fergal O’Brien and Colin Tizzard also had quick starts. Between the four of them at Chepstow last year they had a level stakes profit of 43.01 pts on the opening fixture.

Just a small piece today for some early season jumps interest. If you are considering joining Proform, I believe they are running a 50% sign up offer at the moment. All the details can be found on their Twitter account.

http://www.proformracing.com

All the best

Mark

 

 

The final word on the Proform Speed Figures and month end results!

As I’m writing this on Sunday afternoon it would be rude not to start with a mention for Enable. She’s just won the Arc in a hack canter. She is some filly and has been an absolute pleasure to watch throughout the summer months. John Gosden’s handling of her has once again been absolutely exemplary.

So on to the main topic of this blog post as Septemeber has come to an end and I can asses the performance of the various systems that I have been closely monitoring using Proform. I should stress that if this is the first time you have stumbled across this blog, you should probably give the original post a quick gander. It can be found here:

https://mgsportsramblings.wordpress.com/2017/09/22/are-speed-figuresratings-profitable-lets-take-a-look-at-proform_racing/

So how did we do in September? Well first off the double top rated system, which is what is says on the tin. Top on the Proform power ratings and top on the LTO Proform speed ratings. This is a system which produces steady profits month on month and this is how it fared in Sept:

352 qualifying selections, 99 winners, 28.13% strike rate & +43.42pts with a 12.34% ROI.

A reminder that these figures are taken from the prices available the evening before racing and that is now 17 consecutive profitable months from the DTR system. 100% from when Proform started to collect the evening prices last May.

Right, that’s the housekeeping done, so what of the system that I put together using the LTO speed ratings from Proform. Another really good month and I have thoroughly enjoyed tracking all the runners and seeing how it pans out on a daily basis. A reminder that the system that I developed uses the horse that had the highest speed rating LTO in all handicaps on the flat. It then has several other parameters that will remain a secret whilst I continue to develop it. This is how we got on…

542 qualifying selections, 92 winners, 16.97% strike rate & +105.78pts with an ROI of 18.86%. (Profit to BFSP= +35.71 points).

So another brilliant month that now puts it +930.32 points in 2017. The 1000 point marker is firmly in sight. The major negative with the way this works is the sheer volume of selections that it throws up. Through September an average of 18 per day, but in reality in peak summer it is much higher than this.

The highlight of the month was Fire Leopard winning at 20/1 having absolutely cantered through the race from the rear of the field.

There are so many positives though and it is something that I am very much looking forward to monitoring over the coming months. The daily numbers for the system will drop off quite a bit over the winter months as the turf racing comes to an end.

Away from the two main projects I have also been working on about 5/6 other much smaller sample size systems that all show a nice profit over time. For the sake of future analysis I have grouped them all together to become a main “system” as such. They attack various elements of the game. I have already blogged about the Southwell one. I have also developed a lovely little program for some very profitable trainers that have horses returning after a break. I also stumbled across a nice little earner revolving around Godolphin horses. Another string to add to the bow revolves around using the Proform Power Ratings in certain national hunt races and to finish off certain trainers have an excellent record running their horses in maiden races on the flat.

So it seems it will be a very interesting few months following all of the above. The pace will drop for sure until the turf flat season gets into full swing again next spring. I will continue to give occasional updates on how all of it goes.

Happy punting

@markagrantham