As winter draws in, let’s tuck in to the good stuff! Southwell anyone?

Firstly thanks for all the feedback on last weeks blog post. It is great to see how many people are taking an interest in not only Proform but also the different approaches you can add to your betting portfolio. Things are going well again in September with winners up to 22/1 so far. The system had a good day on Monday throwing up winners at 9/4, 7/1 and 14/1 as well as a 10/1 winner on Tuesday. Having had a brief conversation with Simon on Friday I can confirm that using the evening before prices makes an enormous difference to the P&L. My estimation was nowhere near as much as reality. As I mentioned Simon only had the evening before prices back as far as May 2016, so for 17 months of data. Having shown a profit of 813.81 from 1st Jan 2010 on the figures I had, Simon confirmed that the actual evening before price profit since last year was +1432.56 which is staggering. There is obviously a deduction to come off this from rule 4’s but it is only minimal in reality. So as things stand, I’m hopefully on to something very interesting. I will continue to monitor this.

As I write this on Tuesday evening this month is currently +35.79 pts in profit. Although not following it as closely, I believe the DTR system is running at about the same sort of figure.

So what next? What’s the next angle to look at? Well given the time of the year and with the flat coming to an end, I thought that I’d have a look at the winter action but hold on, no I’m not like 90% of Twitter. I refuse to start talking about the Cheltenham Festival in September! Although having said that, I do plan to have a look at the festival stats at some point in the next week or two. If you know me well, you know that when it comes to the winter it is all about the all-weather Racing! To narrow my search down I am going to have a good look at Southwell which I’m sure there are a few angles.

So where to start with trying to find a profitable angle when it comes to betting at Southwell. Well my immediate thought is with my own involvement with horses at the track and pals horses that have been shrewdly purchased. We’ve had some wonderful success there, and a lot of it comes from the fact that we managed to get hold of horses that were by Speightstown. Southwell is our only track in the UK that comes close to replicating the conditions of dirt racing in the US and the progeny of Speightstown have an excellent record on the fibresand surface, especially first time up.

So this got me thinking, how do horses perform on the surface based on which country they are bred from. This was my first query into Proform, again using 1st Jan 2010 onwards. The results were as expected, lots of red numbers all over the screen apart from three countries that had the following numbers to BFSP:

France +102.60

Canada +10.73

USA + 649.01

On the back of these numbers I clustered these three countries together and had a look at plenty of the usual variables. Race distance, age etc. The only real variable that had a large impact on the numbers was the race type. Again, lots of red numbers all over the screen, but three very decent plus numbers as follows:

Auction Races: +131.72

Handicaps: +630.34

Maiden Races: +173.34

So once I drilled down all the variables these are the final figures that came out from my system builder results:

Horses from either USA, FRANCE or CANADA, in all AUCTIONS, MAIDENS & HANDICAPS at SOUTHWELL on the AW.

1706 Qualifiers, 292 winners @17.12% strike rate. +£765.48 to £1 at stakes at BFSP and a 44.87% ROI.

Whilst thinking that age and race distance may have an impact on the results, they made very little difference to the outcome.

All in all this equates to an average profit of 109.35pts per year. Which to many people will not seem like a great deal, but remember we are looking at putting together a portfolio of profitable systems that win without you having to do any kind of work other than updating the Proform software and putting the bets on. So this is another one to add to the portfolio and one that I will also monitor over the coming months.


Whilst looking at the above system my mind starting to think about another angle I constantly refer too. It largely comes from an old hunch I used to have that sprinters that ran well and turned up to the track again within a few days seemed to have a good record. Although I never actually had any stats to back this up, was it a myth or reality? So off I went again… searching through Proform System Builder looking for another angle.

My findings were not quite what I hoped but still showed a profitable angle. I basically looked at all horses from Jan 1st 2010 that had finished in the first three of their race and were running again within seven days. Across all racing this showed a very small profit. Once I started to play with all the variables again I managed to start to eek out the negative elements of another potential system.

In the end if you eliminated all races on the all-weather and concentrated solely on turf racing this improved things. Once again, then just using handicaps and removing all other races, the profit grew.

In the end these were the final figures I got too without too much effort since Jan 1st 2010:

12,452 qualifiers, 2,685 winners at a strike rate of 21.56%. +£344.45 to £1 stakes. +2.77% ROI. So this system whilst I think has some legs, doesn’t currently offer enough a profit for me to be interested in it. I will continue to tweek this until I find something more robust and at the moment can be parked on the “in progress” shelf. I also on the back of this started to play around with winners LTO that were returning to the track within seven days. It returned far less qualifiers obviously but very similar figures in the P&L, so this is another one that I will play around with over the coming months.

If anyone reading this has an idea they would like me to look at, I’m more than happy to delve in to the system builder and have a play around.

Hope some of this inspires you to start to have play with Proform yourself. If you have any questions or comments I’m always available on Twitter: @markagrantham. Roll on the fibresand season!

All the best

Mark

 

 

 

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