Hello one and all. Threw a small dart at The Lock Master yesterday but although he ran well he wasn’t quite up to it. Looks like his best days are done now but no surprise to see him win a similar event in the near future.
One other note to make from the meeting was something completely off the cuff. Whilst looking at the form for a 50/1 shot, I looked at some sire stats and noticed that Poets Voice is building himself quite a nice book on fibresand. That is a line at Southwell that I will start to follow with interest over the coming months.
I’ll kick thing off today with some trainer Proform stats for you…. these are trainers that have an outstanding win & place strike rate in the last 14 days that have had a minimum of 5 runners.
Marco Botti – 87.50%
John Gosden – 76.92%
Jeremy Gask – 71.43%
James Tate – 66.67%
From Marco Botti’s last 8 runners 7 have finished in the frame. He has Basheer entered today in the 6.15 Kempton. I feel I should give a mention as well to a few trainers that are having plenty of winners. Jonathan Portman has sent out 5 runners in the last two weeks of which 3 have won. Ian Williams and Jamie Osbourne have also been responsible for 14 winners between them in the last fortnight.
So where are we going today? Well a just a couple of chancy ones for you. The first one I will mention, I’m a bit annoyed about the entry, as there is every chance they are just running her to lower her mark. I’m talking about GOLD RETURN (2.00 Ling). As I write this on Thursday night, she’s the complete outsider of the four with Ryan Moore’s mount, Remember Me a short priced favourite.
Now the negative is I think she needs slightly further than a mile, but there are quite a few positives. To start with her are my Proform notes on her from her last run……
“An interesting addition. A fairly lightly raced 4-year-old who was with David Lanigan until December 2016. We all know how Lanigan likes to profile his horses and bring them along slowly with handicap marks in mind. She has now switched to John Ryan and after a couple of quiet runs for this yard (planned), she goes into the book on the back of her run at Wolverhampton 26th Jan 17. She was held up in last which is her style before staying on really well under what we will call a fairly inexperienced ride by young Jonathon Fisher. They went no pace at all early and after an awkward start she did remarkably well to finish as close as she did.
Given a better/stronger ride she would have gone very close to winning this race and can be marked up. Her last win for Lanigan was off 60 and this was off 62. I think 9f should be classed as her minimum now and that a future step up in trip to 10f plus could bring about some more improvement. She should be followed with interest. Likely that she will get well backed next time.”
I hope this clears up why I think she’s interesting. If you find this intriguing just watch that video of her last run. I don’t think having Darragh Keenan on board is a bad thing. He looked really stylish when winning on Piazon a few weeks back. I hope he’s patient as with Skidby Mill in there they should go a fair gallop.
Don’t get me wrong she should probably be the outsider of the four on what we have seen, but I don’t think she should be 14/1. On figures all three of her rivals will need a career best to win this so she is far from out of it. I am concerned this could be another quiet run before the main event but I’m prepared to take the chance at the prices. Even though the mile may be sharp enough.
She will be quite interesting to play in the place and 3TBP markets in a four runner race too assuming her price holds up.
Next up I am going to give one chance and one chance only to a horse in the opening race at Kempton (5.45) called PLEADINGS. He has shown improved form the last twice and was particularly promising at Lingfield last time. He has shaped like a step back up in trip from 6f would be a real good move. Here are the notes I made from his last run.
No real form to talk of before a small note from his run at Lingfield 27th Jan 17 when Shane Kelly seemed to let others go by him before giving him a smack. He is very lowly rated but his pedigree and this run both suggests 6f would be way short of his potential best. Could find a poor race for him.
As you can see from the race is doesn’t get much lower than a class 7, 0-50 at Kempton that he has managed to sneak in to here off top weight. Shane Kelly has kept the ride. He is by Street Cry, whose progeny do well here operating at about a 15% strike rate and I think he has lots going for him. He also comes out well clear at the top of the Proform Power Ratings too.
I don’t think he’s a long-term project but is worth a bet tonight.
GOLD RETURN – 2.00 Lingfield 1 pt win @ 14/1.
PLEADINGS – 5.45 Kempton 2 pts win @ 9/2.
I will probbaly pop them into a small double too for a bit of light entertainment.
Fingers crossed for two good runs. Best of luck with your punting today!
All the best