Pomme’s time to shine & a large priced dart…

Proform

I’m looking forward to Pomme switching to a mares race ahead of the 2.50 at Carlisle tomorrow. She has shown lots of promise on all her starts so far and I’m pretty sure if you look at the figures that you can make a good case for her to be favourite in this race.

If you want more details on why I like her then you can read back through previous posts. Which One Is Which and Lastbutnotleast make this an interesting contest. The latter has a penalty to carry but has shaped like this step up in trip will suit, whilst the former is under priced on what she’s achieved.

They clearly had a choice here with Pomme of going for a similar race to last time and getting her a nice mark or going for a mares race with a big chance of a gaining a win. The way she travels should suit Carlisle and she’ll hopefully be the last off the bridle before going on to score. Bet365 have opened up at 3/1. I think she should be favourite.

Elsewhere, I do have one of the interesting horses running today in the form of CASTANEA (5.20 Kempton). Now let’s not go mad, he’s a 42 rated 18 race maiden. So let that sink in, this is not a bank job and it has health risks attached to it but I do think there is a case to be made.

I get the feeling there may have been one or two issues in 2016 as he started to look awkward. He was given a six month break on the back of his last run in July before making a very interesting return over an inadequate 8.5f at Wolverhampton on Jan 26th. Here are my Proform notes.

This is probably one to come with a health warning. An 18 race maiden that has clearly had a few issues. Throw in the fact that he’s now rated just 42 and this should not be one to go over board with but certainly of interest as we’ll get some juice in the price because of the profile.

I’d urge you to watch the replay of the run at Wolverhampton on January 26th 17, which was his first run for 6 months having previously been seen running terribly at Ffos Las and Brighton in mid summer. Now watch closely. The first thing to note is that the trip was short of what he needs, he clearly wants about 10f, so it was obviously intended as a prep run or cobweb blower. Second thing to note is watch the draw, missing the break, wide trip early, and the effort on board to actually get close….

Now I must stress that there could just be a chance that he is a rogue and that he was really well and fresh ahead of this run. There could also be a small chance that whatever was the issue previously has been sorted and he is ready to rock and roll.

His price is going to allow us some fun. He has opened up at 16/1 tonight and is a really good each way bet. The only negative might be that it may have been picked up by other race readers so he may get well backed. If he does, then he may not even try.

Before we go I must just give you the details of a horse to follow in the early part of 2017. CULLINGWORTH is the one, here are the notes…

I think he’s potentially quite nice horse to follw for 2017. Ran in quite a few conditions races early on before having a mid summer break. Most intersting run was certainly the last start of 2016 when running in a messy race at Chester 9/9/16 when a horse fell and traffic problems. The way he travelled through that race and the fact that he was hampered were both interesting considring how he finshed off. Although well beaten was doing excellent work late on. Definitely capable of achieving much more than 81 this year. The form of this race has worked out really well too.

Pomme – 2.50 Carlisle

Castanea – 5.20 Kempton. E/W.

Be lucky today.

MG

Proform

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The dudes are waiting!

Proform

Well February has got off to a flying start. Of the nine eye-catchers I’ve given positive mentions too on the blog over the last few weeks, a total of zero have won. One or two have shown promise for next time, one or two have simply ran terribly. Really disappointed with Big Windmill yesterday. He jumped poorly in truth and was just on the back foot from the first fence. He shaped like that track/trip is too sharp for him. Line through it and move on.

I’m writing this Sunday evening as I’ll be up till god knows what time watching Tom Brady win the Superbowl MVP and Lady Gaga lighting up half time (food break and beer).

Two average meetings on Monday, just a couple of Proform notes in terms of trainer form. Ken Slack, Tracy Waggott and Chris Dwyer have all had a 66.67% strike rate of win & placed horses the last 2 weeks. Ian Williams has sent out 23 runners in the last 14 days, 9 have won.

I will only pass on one horse today from the list and hopefully this one will break the blog hoodoo. HYMN FOR THE DUDES (5.50 Wolverhampton) was a huge eye-catcher two starts back when basically finishing on the bridle back on the 31st May. On the back of that run he was off the track for 8 months before re-appearing at Wolverhampton on Jan 23rd. He clearly needed it and after travelling well through the race he was forced wide and weakened late on in a race where Adam Kirby seemed to be given a charmed life if you get my drift.

The key to this is, I’m sure this was a quiet ride to get him spot on. He is clearly better than his mark of 51 and even more importantly, Adam Kirby has been booked for the ride too. Whilst I am writing this his price is already starting to go tonight, but there is still some 5/1 about so I am happy to put him up.

COLD FUSION is in the same race and it will be interesting to see how she fares back here compared to Southwell last week. I may have a final tiny saver on her as a last chance saloon before she is dropped off the list.

Hymn For The Dudes – 2pts win @ 5/1.

Have fun tonight and be lucky tomorrow!

MG

Proform

Hoping the windmill will blow away the Saturday tears!

Proform

Ahh. How annoying was yesterday. Testa Rossa got absolutely hammered late doors into 4/1 from 7’s. Unfortunately the dropping back to seven didn’t really help but in truth he was given a poor ride. Edmunds let him get squeezed out and then just sat behind the whole field. I was shouting at the screen 5 furlongs out for him to switch wide.

I don’t think enough of the jockeys watch enough of the racing. When the horses come under pressure at Newcastle on the all-weather, the majority of them tend to drift to the far side. Horses that try to weave through have a very poor record. Once he switched wide and got daylight he took off but it was too late in a really steadily run race.

I will for now consider it money borrowed. As he is still thriving and will clearly win again soon. Preferably over a mile.

Anyway on to the Sunday action and I will grace you with the first maximum bet for February. I have had the max on BIG WINDMILL (3.20 Taunton). He was one of my eye-catchers in the WeighedInRacing magazine this month. Here are my Proform Notes…..

He’s had the typical education, very much slowly slowly with an eye to chasing I believe. He made his chase debut in a novice handicap off a mark of 112 on January 25th and having been nibbled most of the day he jumped the first three fences really well before seeming to slip or catch heels of the horse in front and unshipped Adrian Heskin.

He looks a big natural chasing type and I really liked the way he jumped the first three fences. He should be followed with interest in the coming weeks..

It’s about time they started winning so fingers crossed the max lands! It should be an interesting few days as plenty of this month’s eye catchers are entered this week so things should really start to pick up!

BIG WINDMILL – 3.20 Taunton – 5pts Max bet @ 9/4 (bog).

Top result for the hammers yesterday. Seems the lads are playing with far more freedom away from home at the moment. Good result at a difficult place to go. Top half finish looks more likely each week whilst the relegation race is wide open!

So looking forward to the Superbowl tonight. Should be an absolute belter. Fingers crossed the windmill will give us plenty of ammo to have an interest!

Be lucky today!

All the best

MG

 

Proform

 

 

Fire Up The Testa Rossa!

Proform

I won’t dwell on yesterday. As I’d feared the mile was just no good for Gold Return and once she missed the break she was a million. She is certainly not one to give up on and will remain on the interesting list when conditions are more suitable.

I have a couple that I must throw into the mix today. First off I’ve had my first decent go on one since I started blogging again in the form of TESTA ROSSA (7.45 Newcastle). He has improved immeasurably over the last over the last 3 or 4 months and it is almost exclusively down to the test that the all-weather track provides. I am absolutely convinced that he would have won again on Jan 21st had he not been stopped in the run not once but twice. He gets to race off the same mark of 80 in here again tonight and I see no reason why he will not win again granted a clear passage. He is actually 2lbs better off as Lewis Edmunds can claim 5lbs rather than the 3 of Downing. The drop back to 7f doesn’t worry me, there is a chance given how he has raced that it may even suit better and there should be plenty of pace on.

Clearly Safe Voyage is a sharp improver and could be a huge danger but I had them much closer together in the market than they are and at 7/1 I think he represents a decent bet. If it is your way I couldn’t put you off backing him each way as I can’t see him out the first three, but he’s a decent bet for me at the prices.

The other one I have to give a positive mention too is FLY TRUE (2.30 Lingfield). Jeremy Gask’s filly should in my opinion have won last time and I’ll be backing her to gain some compensation today. She’s a hold up horse with an excellent turn of foot. Granted round here she will need some luck, but if the gaps come she will go very close. With Mossgo and Come On Dave in here they should go a relentless clip that will bring the closers in to play. It will be hair-raising late doors but I’m convinced she’s better than her current mark.

TESTA ROSSA – 7.45 Newcastle – 3pts win @ 7/1.

FLY TRUE – 2.30 Lingfield – 1 pt win 9/2.

Be lucky today with your punting….oh and COYI

Proform

Friday’s blog…On Thursday night. Hoping for a Gold Return!

Proform

Hello one and all. Threw a small dart at The Lock Master yesterday but although he ran well he wasn’t quite up to it. Looks like his best days are done now but no surprise to see him win a similar event in the near future.

One other note to make from the meeting was something completely off the cuff. Whilst looking at the form for a 50/1 shot, I looked at some sire stats and noticed that Poets Voice is building himself quite a nice book on fibresand. That is a line at Southwell that I will start to follow with interest over the coming months.

I’ll kick thing off today with some trainer Proform stats for you…. these are trainers that have an outstanding win & place strike rate in the last 14 days that have had a minimum of 5 runners.

Marco Botti – 87.50%

John Gosden – 76.92%

Jeremy Gask – 71.43%

James Tate – 66.67%

From Marco Botti’s last 8 runners 7 have finished in the frame. He has Basheer entered today in the 6.15 Kempton. I feel I should give a mention as well to a few trainers that are having plenty of winners. Jonathan Portman has sent out 5 runners in the last two weeks of which 3 have won. Ian Williams and Jamie Osbourne have also been responsible for 14 winners between them in the last fortnight.

So where are we going today? Well a just a couple of chancy ones for you. The first one I will mention, I’m a bit annoyed about the entry, as there is every chance they are just running her to lower her mark. I’m talking about GOLD RETURN (2.00 Ling). As I write this on Thursday night, she’s the complete outsider of the four with Ryan Moore’s mount, Remember Me a short priced favourite.

Now the negative is I think she needs slightly further than a mile, but there are quite a few positives. To start with her are my Proform notes on her from her last run……

“An interesting addition. A fairly lightly raced 4-year-old who was with David Lanigan until December 2016. We all know how Lanigan likes to profile his horses and bring them along slowly with handicap marks in mind. She has now switched to John Ryan and after a couple of quiet runs for this yard (planned), she goes into the book on the back of her run at Wolverhampton 26th Jan 17. She was held up in last which is her style before staying on really well under what we will call a fairly inexperienced ride by young Jonathon Fisher. They went no pace at all early and after an awkward start she did remarkably well to finish as close as she did.

Given a better/stronger ride she would have gone very close to winning this race and can be marked up. Her last win for Lanigan was off 60 and this was off 62. I think 9f should be classed as her minimum now and that a future step up in trip to 10f plus could bring about some more improvement. She should be followed with interest. Likely that she will get well backed next time.”

I hope this clears up why I think she’s interesting. If you find this intriguing just watch that video of her last run. I don’t think having Darragh Keenan on board is a bad thing. He looked really stylish when winning on Piazon a few weeks back. I hope he’s patient as with Skidby Mill in there they should go a fair gallop.

Don’t get me wrong she should probably be the outsider of the four on what we have seen, but I don’t think she should be 14/1. On figures all three of her rivals will need a career best to win this so she is far from out of it. I am concerned this could be another quiet run before the main event but I’m prepared to take the chance at the prices. Even though the mile may be sharp enough.

She will be quite interesting to play in the place and 3TBP markets in a four runner race too assuming her price holds up.

Next up I am going to give one chance and one chance only to a horse in the opening race at Kempton (5.45) called PLEADINGS. He has shown improved form the last twice and was particularly promising at Lingfield last time. He has shaped like a step back up in trip from 6f would be a real good move. Here are the notes I made from his last run.

No real form to talk of before a small note from his run at Lingfield 27th Jan 17 when Shane Kelly seemed to let others go by him before giving him a smack. He is very lowly rated but his pedigree and this run both suggests 6f would be way short of his potential best. Could find a poor race for him.

As you can see from the race is doesn’t get much lower than a class 7, 0-50 at Kempton that he has managed to sneak in to here off top weight. Shane Kelly has kept the ride. He is by Street Cry, whose progeny do well here operating at about a 15% strike rate and I think he has lots going for him. He also comes out well clear at the top of the Proform Power Ratings too.

I don’t think he’s a long-term project but is worth a bet tonight.

GOLD RETURN – 2.00 Lingfield 1 pt win @ 14/1.

PLEADINGS – 5.45 Kempton 2 pts win @ 9/2.

I will probbaly pop them into a small double too for a bit of light entertainment.

Fingers crossed for two good runs. Best of luck with your punting today!

All the best

Mark.

Proform

Proform

Morning all. Good to see from the entries that the diary for all the eye-catchers is starting to fill up nicely over the coming days. I will do my best to get them out nice and early unlike today.

I’ve had a one point bet today on THE LOCK MASTER (2.20 Southwell) at 16/1. In the time it’s taken me to get to London on the train and double-check his price I see it has halved so not much use now but he’s a really well handicapped horse. He loves it round Southwell and if you watch the comeback run last time he travelled really well in that race behind two very well handicapped horses before getting tired turning for home. Bear in mind it wasn’t that long ago he was running in a class 2 off a mark of 92 and today he is down to 70.

If he has come on from that run then he will probably laugh at this lot and you can still have a small interest at around 10/1.

THE LOCK MASTER – 1pt Win at 10/1.

Proform

Another blank day! Article writing time for @weighedinracing

Proform

Morning all, just a post to let you know we have no eye catchers running today. Having been doing racing commentaries for the last three days I will be spending today in my office doing all the videos since Saturday so we should have plenty more to add to the interesting list.

I will also be writing my first eye-catchers article for Weighed In Racing (@weighedinracing) today too. This will contain 3 or 4 of the months biggest eye catchers that have yet to run since and should be placed firmly in your trackers.

Just to touch on one or two of the horses that I’ve mentioned so far. Pulsating is definitely being messed about with so we’ll strike her off. Cold Fusion got pretty well backed at Southwell, well from 40’s into 25’s, but just ran terribly. I will keep an eye on him for now but can’t see him being a betting proposition in the near future on the back of that.

Good luck today!

All the best

MG

Proform