On a day when the Dante at York will take the attention of most, I will be waiting for the 7.00 at Newmarket where I will be having my second maximum bet of the season. More on that shortly but first up a quick look back on Yesterday. I thought RYE HOUSE was a little unlucky in the opener. He got into a bit of a barging match as the race evolved and Ryan soon realised he wasn’t going to be winning. He shaped with significant promise from his revised mark though and should be followed with interest.
SHOT IN THE SUN was well backed from 20/1 into 14’s and ran another absolute blinder to be second to what looked like a handicap good thing. He will get another hit from the handicapper now and in truth has been unfortunate to bump into a couple already this year.
Here are some Proform stats for trainers win & place strike rates over the past 14 days (these figs were done last night so do not include weds results):
Robert Cowell 71.43% (Normal Equilibrium, Sir Pedro)
James Fanshawe 66.67% (Saab Almanal, Shining Glitter, Green Monkley)
John Gosden 62.96%
John Joseph Hanlon 55.56%
Martin Todhunter 55.56%
Karl Burke 55%
Kim Bailey 54.55%
Sir Michael Stoute 54.55%
Joseph Tuite and David Elsworth both have 50% winning strike rates with 4 winners from their last 8 runners.
The Dante is the main attraction on the Knavesmire this afternoon with TRUE STORY looking to validate his Derby claims after a very good win at HQ last time. He seems to have a little bit of temperament and maybe a little attitude but to go with it he has an awful lot of talent. I think he should actually be a little bit closer in the market for Epsom to Australia than he actually is so I am hoping for a really impressive performance this afternoon. He is too short to back today but I will watch with interest.
Ok no more leaving the ball outside off stump and letting it go through to the keeper. Time to open the shoulders and hoick one over mid-wicket with a full on hip twist. The horse in question for the second maximum in 6 days is QUEST FOR MORE (7.00 Newm) for Roger Charlton and George Baker. A slow learner of his trade having only had 9 starts so far in his career. The well-bred son of Teofilo has improved for stepping up to a mile and a half. He was well backed for his re-appearance run at Windsor 4 weeks ago but everything went wrong. He got trapped on the rail and the race developed around him and he could only managed third and finished on the bridle. His mark remains at 80 which I think might drastically underestimate where he might be in a couple of months time and the Windsor run may have even brought him along a little too. Whilst I appreciate that there are other potential improvers in here too, I think we might be looking at a 90+ horse so he must be backed with full confidence today.
QUEST FOR MORE 5 PTS MAXIMUM BET @ 3/1
I will be backing a couple against the field at York in the 3.15 in the form of SPA’S DANCER and FORT BASTIAN. The former was actually seriously unlucky in the Spring Cup at Newbury having got stopped in the run a couple of times, he flew home to finish second to the highly touted Gabrial’s Kaka. His run went largely unnoticed as most of the attention was paid to the winner. Watch the video back and you will see what I mean. Whilst there is the argument that this will require a career best at seven years of age, he is a horse that has continued to improve throughout his career. Provided there is plenty of pace on he surely goes close. You should all know about FORT BASTIAN as we backed him when he won at Thirsk last time. He is just the type Ruth Carr does well with and is still well in on his old form.
SPA’S DANCER 2 pts WIN @ 6/1, FORT BASTIAN 1 PT WIN @ 13/2
TABREEK (6.25 Newmarket) really caught my eye on his debut in the Wood Ditton. He was as green as Wooders at the bar before the penny dropped all too late and he started to power up the hill late in the day! There is stamina in the pedigree and I would expect him to come on a bundle for that debut effort. I don’t’ normally deal in these sort of races but he looks worth a point.
TABREEK 1 PT WIN @ 4/1
I am really frustrated with SINAADI running in the Middleton at 2.15. As most of you know I have thought she is well handicapped off a mark of 78 and has races in her. She is 100/1 for this today and is going to get well out classed but at the same time she is going to blow her handicap mark if she runs anywhere near the principles. So frustrating!
To finish the card at York we have to have a good go on CALCULATED RISK (5.00 York). If you translate his hurdles form back to the flat then he is potentially thrown in of a mark in the mid 70’s and in all honesty he should have won on his re-appearance at Pontefract but for some bad luck in the run. This race might actually have been the original target all along and with Ian Brennan taking off an extra three pounds off bottom weight he must have a superb chance. Do keep an eye on SURAJ who is a very interesting yard switcher for Nicky Henderson who may well have plenty to give under Spencer.
CALCULATED RISK 3 PTS WIN @ 5/1, SURAJ 1 PT WIN @ 10/1
On the road upto Coral TV this morning for the racing action this afternoon!
Have a cracking day!