46.6pts profit so far in May
It was nice to get a confident selection over the line yesterday. The only real shock was the SP of 2/1. She travelled like the best horse in the race and the decisive kick coming down the hill meant that her rivals had all but been fended off by the furlong pole. This did look a very weak race on paper and to be fair she didn’t smack this time round like a horse that is crying out for 7 or 8 furlongs. We will keep her on side and look closely at her entries. Brighton suits her well. As for Paradise Child I think we can confidently cross her off the list as she doesn’t look to have trained on.
Twenty minutes later and the joy turned to anguish with Glanely. As mentioned in yesterdays notes he is a lazy sod with one long burst rather than a turn of foot. For him he travelled really well under Hughesy and I thought he was the winner turning for home. He got held up ever so slightly in the ruck as they quickened and he had to switch to the inside. Horrible to be beaten a neck. Still another 5 pts profit on the day so we shouldn’t grumble.
Today is the start of Chester’s May meeting with more classic clues about to be dished out. Funny news this morning that StanJames are in trouble with the local council for putting advertising on the pavement. Naughty, but funny all the same.
Here are today’s Proform stats:
Trainers with entries today who’s win & place strike rate is over 50% in the last 14 days (min 10 runners):
Karl Burke 60% (25 runners)
Chris Gordon 60% (10 runners)
John Jenkins 57.89% (19 runners)
William Haggas 55% (20 runners)
Nicky Henderson 52.94% (34 Runners)
Karl Burke, William Haggas, Roger Varian and Chris Gordon all have exceptional winning strike rates too.
First interesting one of the day today is SHWAIMAN (2.45 Chester) in the Chester Cup for James Fanshawe. He has for sometime looked like a colt that would appreciate a real test of stamina. The Gold Cup at Ascot might end up being his ultimate target this season and if that is the case you would like to think he could be competitive off a mark of 97. There are some obvious pitfalls with him in that he is not always foot perfect from the stalls and he generally races in rear, which at Chester can be almost impossible at times. Both of those negatives though are factored into his price and at a general 16/1, you could certainly throw an each way dart at him in the hope that we get some luck in running.
SHWAIMAN 1 pt EACH WAY @ 16/1
It was just about last chance saloon today for LAMBERT PEN at Brighton but he is now a non runner.
I do really like the chances of TOP BOY (3.15 Chester) this afternoon. We were on when he won very convincingly three starts back and he arguably should have won his next two starts too. Of the horses in this that have already had runs this year he has got the good end of the draw in stall 2 which is a huge bonus. Whilst he doesn’t want to be gunned from the front, he will want to just sit in the two path and pounce late. He is up another 4lbs for his consistency to 86 but he was rated 101 not too long ago so is very much capable and fitness/draw could be key!
TOP BOY 2 PTS @ 8/1
One that has been in the book for 196 days is STYBBA (6.15 Kemp). Given three runs as a two-year old it was obvious after the first two that it was just about getting a handicap mark and a low one at that! Stybba starts life in handicaps off a mark of 56 tonight that could easily underestimate his ability. There has been an early trickle of money for him so I expect he is a very well handicapped horse tonight.
STYBBA 3 PTS WIN @ 3/1
The last one of the day is OGARITMO (9.15 Kempton) who again has been followed for some time. He has been tried over various distances of late and because he travels strongly through his races it seems he can be going better than he actually is. I am convinced that a strongly run 12 furlongs around Kempton suits him perfectly and whilst there is no out-and-out front-runner in this field there are four of them that do like to go forward so we should get a solid pace. If we do and Dane can get him settled towards the rear of the field and pounce as late as possible then he is definitely a big each way player.
OGARITMO – 1 PT EACH WAY @ 14/1 (BETFRED)
Enjoy day one of Chester. I’m off on the road for a couple of days!
All the best,