Running Total +41.6 pts so far in May 2014
Well we continue to roll in cracking form after Money Team was backed into 8/1 from 16’s and won nicely yesterday at Beverley. Real Tigress also won on a track that clearly suits well. The first two however were just as interesting and eye-catching. Let’s start with HAYEK who was again slowly away (by design) and again tanked through the early part of the race. He was then steered right around the outside of the field with plenty of elbow movement but not much else from Rachel Richardson. Clearly he is being lined up for a punt somewhere. His last win came off 71, after yesterday he has been dropped to 50. WATCH THIS SPACE!
Next up was Magical Rose who also was given very little assistance in the saddle. This was her first start for Conrad Allen so this may have been a fact-finding mission of sorts. I think we might see her over seven furlongs very soon with a strong jockey on a more conventional track. Then we will open the shoulders.
Ok let’s look at some trainer form stats for the day from Profrom.
This report is trainers (that have runners today) win and place strike rate who have had more than 10 runners in the last 14 days:
Amanda Perrett 60% (10 runners)
Ralph Beckett 57.14% (28 runners)
Karl Burke 55.56% (27 runners)
Nicky Henderson 55.26% (38 runners)
Michael Dods 54.55% (22 runners)
Chris Gordon 53.33% (15 runners)
William Haggas 52.38% (21 runners)
John Jenkins 52.17% (23 runners)
Jessie Harrington 52.17% (23 runners)
Those with exceptional winning strike rates are as follows:
(Today’s entries in brackets)
William Haggas 38.10% (Lily Junior, Wojha 4.10 Kemp)
Karl Burke 37.04% (Millar Rose 6.00 Catt, Reve De Nuit 6.30 Catt)
So we move on to today’s eye catchers. We start with the second race on the card at Brighton where we should be going for just about a maximum.
CRYSTALIZED (2.50 Brighton) has been in the note-book just about longer than any other horse. She is by Rock Of Gibralter and there is plenty of stamina on the dam side too yet she has raced exclusively so far over six furlongs. With almost every run she has shaped really nicely, got out paced and stayed on. She surely wants a mile plus in my opinion. What this does give us is what looks to be a very well handicapped filly (currently rated 52). If this were a handicap again I would be reluctant to play as she clearly needs further than the six again however, this is a classified race and she comes out much the best of these on ratings. She also should relish the stiff uphill finish here at Brighton and the ground will be fine. I honestly expected her to be about even money this morning and she is as big as 15/8 with SportingBet. That is big bet material in my eyes. There is another runner of the list in the same race but you cannot have any confidence at all and that is PARADISE CHILD for Bill Turner. She started off with some promise last year but her form tailed off badly towards the back-end. She did shape with considerable promise on her third last start before getting hampered and Jimmy Quinn gave up. If she has trained on then she is certainly better than her rating of 45, although ultimately handicaps on the all-weather may see her in a better light. In such a weak race I would be tempted to have the smallest saver on her just in case but do keep an eye on her for the future.
CRYSTALIZED 4 PTS WIN @ 15/8 (BOG) & 1PT SAVER ON PARADISE CHILD @ 12/1 GENERALLY
We move on to Kempton Park for our only other eye catcher and strong fancy in the form of GLANELY (3.10 Kemp). He went into the book on the back of an interesting run at Kempton back in October when being backed into favouritism. He looked a bit lazy if truth be told but also looked as if there was still plenty to work with, giving the impression that he may well be a well handicapped horse. It is very interesting therefore that for his return to action this afternoon that they have booked the services of Richard Hughes. There is plenty of 3/1 available and he is likely to be the best handicapped horse in the race.
GLANELY 3PTS WIN @ 16/5 with BETBRIGHT.
Hope you have a cracking afternoon’s action.
All the best,