Morning peeps. I must start (again) by apologising for the lack of activity on here over the last few weeks. I’ve been involved in a couple of projects that have taken up a lot of my time that are now out the way so I will be back on a daily basis. I know many of you will be keen to hear how the 70lb challenge for Macmillan Cancer Support has been going. Well I am bang on track as after the first two months I am down two stone. I have managed to shed countless chins and many inches so I am now really starting to see the results. Thank you for all of your ongoing support.
I must send my thanks for all your messages about Miako last week. I’ve been involved in racing in one way or another for many years but I can honestly say it was the biggest thrill and best day of my career to become a winning owner. It was a fantastic day. We are very lucky to be in a great team and have an excellent trainer. The Grinch (handicapper) has given him a ten pound rise for the win which on the face of it was expected really. The Racing Post comment the next day of “he won with embarrassing ease” was probably ringing in his ears. Still onwards and upwards, we step up in grade with him now and hopefully he can win a few more times for us. To sum how the rest of that day went, Dicko is still on crutches and most of them are still hungover!
I still have to pinch myself when we say there are only 5 days to go until the festival! amazing how quickly it has all come around. My ante-post book looks like a bit of raw chicken that has been on the sideboard for three months (I ignored the possibility of a horse meat gag). Cinders and Ashes has shortened up in the last couple of days so there is still a glimmer of hope there, but let’s be honest that is really clutching at straws. The only other one I have backed that is shorter or close to the same price is Pique Sous in the Supreme but I honestly cannot see past My Tent Or Yours. He’ll be too short to back on the day but he just oozed class in the Betfair and will surely be too good.
I have spent a lot of time over the last couple of months really getting my teeth into Proform. If you don’t use it or haven’t seen it before then please click on the Proform logo at the top and bottom of the blog and check out the website. It is a truly astonishing piece of kit and a must for anyone that follows racing seriously. Simon will gladly answer any questions you may have.
On we move to today’s racing and there are one or two interesting bets floating about. I’ve just run a system on Proform for the last 14 days and here are the trainers that have an exceptionally high Win & Place strike rate indicating all of their horses are going well……..
Alan Swinbank 83.33%, Julie Fielden 80%, Ed Vaughan 75%, David Nicholls 66.67%, Jeremy Gask 62.50%, Barry Murtagh, Keith Dalgleish and Richard Fahey all 60%.
I would also chuck a couple of others in there with David Simcock (57.14%) as he has a high winning strike rate of 35.71% and do keep an eye on Henry Daly. He hasn’t had many runners but the ones he has had have been flying.
My first bet today is ROYAL BAJAN 5.00 Southwell. He is another one of the horses that has long been on the waiting list for Southwell to re-open. It is a major boost that he managed to win at Wolverhampton two starts back as he is quite clearly going to be a lot better on fibresand as he is by Speightstown. He is 1/1 at the track and he might have several of these off the bridle a long way out. This will require a career best to be winning but he is totally unexposed on the surface and I think he represents a bit of value at 9/2 in this small field.
GLENNACREIM (2.00 Wincanton). Looks particularly interesting off bottom weight in the opener at Wincanton. The Old Vic gelding has been struggling of late but as a result his mark has been tumbling down to a career low of 64. On the pick of some of his old Irish form that makes him a seriously well handicapped horse and whilst he is just as likely to finish last as he is first, the 10/1 available is a reflection of that and therefore I’ll give him a chance.
I like the look of the chances of MITCHELLS WAY (2.10 Carlisle) this afternoon too. He is 4lb higher than his last winning mark but he tends to save his best efforts for this track and the yard could not be going any better as the figures above indicate. This is not as competitive as the numbers actually suggest and he makes plenty of each way appeal at 10/1. He has the assistance of Thomas Garner which is a likely plus in this line up.
The race in which Rudemeister and BALDING BANKER ran in last time looks one to follow and the latter makes definite appeal to me today at the prices. He undoubtedly needs to brush up his jumping but the way he travelled that day suggests to me that he looks a well handicapped horse on paper and he must be backed this afternoon! Rudemeister is an obvious danger given the way he went in that race and quite clearly didn’t see out the trip! He has been well backed accordingly but I will side with BB and take some of the 5/1 on offer as it reresents a good deal of value.
Hopefully we can bag a few winners and have a nice positive return with the blog! I will of course be previewing all four days of the festival next week.
Be lucky today and back plenty of winners!