October comes to an end…..

So with a bit of luck the run of 2nds will also!
Spent the night in a hotel with no heating. I am just starting to thaw out now. Not really too much to report on today but here is what I like!

LOYAL ROYAL – 1.00 Lingfield – each way with SKYBET @7/1
 
Hasn’t won for a while but as a result his mark has dropped to an attractive 57. Saves his best for round here too and the step back up to 6f is a huge plus. There should be plenty of pace in here which will set this up perfectly for him and he looks a huge each way player in this at 7/1.
 
FONTERUTOLI – 3.35 Nottingham – each way @ 14/1 BetVictor
 
Firmly went onto the hot list after his performance at Kempton last time in a race where the form for the grade is actually working out really nicely. He didn’t get the clearest of runs that day and seemed to go under the radar. He is on a really attractive mark and looks ready to win. The major downside is the fact that this is a lady amateur riders race so we are not going to get much assistance in the saddle. If not he would have been a very strong bet indeed but we feel his price is much too big to be left alone.
Be lucky today
MG
Advertisements

Tuesday 30th Oct

An easy journey up to Coral TV towers this morning was a blessing. I’m here for four days which is a long stretch in hotel rooms! Still it gives me no excuse but to catch up on all the racing and the national hunt preview.

Today is a busy but average day. There are a couple of bets.

KINGSCROFT -( 1.50 CATTERICK) looks a decent bet this afternoon. We had a small each way interest on him at a huge price in a much better race at Ascot last time which was a race won by the progressive Jack Dexter. This is a big step down in class and he relishes today’s conditions and he looks a major player from top weight. The 6/1 this morning is too big and he should be backed accordingly.

CUISINE (6.40 Wolv) looks overpriced this evening too. He has shown a liking for this surface on his two starts here and has drop 8lbs from his opening mark. Given too much to do over an inadequate 5f last time the step back to 6 today should suit and the 7/1 with Bet365 is much to big and I’ll back him each way.

Will be interesting to see MOLOTOF make his chasing debut this afternoon. He was smart over hurdles and has the potential to go towards the top of the game over fences.

Be lucky today

MG

 

London Franchise? Or NFL Europe?

Morning peeps.

What a spectacle last night was at Wembley. The Patriots ran riot and looked just a completely different gravy to the Rams. It was great to watch a legend like Tom Brady strut his stuff and I have to say again that London put on a great show.

Over the weekend there has been a lot of talk emanating that the NFL are looking into the prospect of London having its own NFL franchise!! Wow can you just imagine that? Maybe the rebirth of the London Monarchs? I’m not convinced it will ever happen as the logistics are difficult but how amazing that would be. As long as they are not put into the NFC East it’s fine by me. The question would be if we got our own franchise here, where would we play? The obvious choice would of course be Wembley, but would we realistically fill Wembley for eight home games in a season? Would the pitch stand up to that sort of beating in and amongst football games?

I’m sure there is a more pressing case to bring back some form of NFL Europe as a feeder league into the NFL. The sport is more global now than it has ever been and I’m sure you could get 8 teams from around Europe filling 40,000 seater stadiums no problem. Either way it is incredibly exciting times and I hope one or the other materializes.

This week is incredibly busy as I’m off to Coral Tv for four days from tomorrow first thing. There are no bets on the racing today. No list horses running and nothing stands out.

Enjoy

MG

NFL Sunday @ Wembley Stadium! Pats vs Rams!

Morning campers.

Mixed emotions yesterday. Art Scholar ran another cracker to be second and the same with AvonValley. It seems that a lot of you have started putting my big priced selections into each way doubles which has been a right touch. 12’s and 14’s on the early prices. Lovely. Invincible Warrior managed to win nicely, I hope plenty of you managed to get the 5/1 early doors.
Anyway you look at it, it has been a very profitable month!

Off to Wembley today to see the big game! Can’t wait, shame about the weather, looks like I am going to freeze my rocks off!

It’s actually a tough game to call and I don’t think the Rams will get blown away and the points line is a bit high (Pats -7). Rams may well cover that but as I am going to be cheering on the Pats I think there is a decent bet to be had in the first TD scorer market.

Wes Welker & Rob Gronkowski split stakes at 6’s and 8’s!
Hope you all enjoy the day! There are no list horses running today, which is a good thing as it means they can’t finish second!
Enjoy!

MG

Super Saturday! – Seconditis……..

I feel a bit lost this morning. My first venture out the flat for three days yesterday after dealing with an epic encounter with man flu had made me think I’d been in doors for two months after realising it was literally baltic outside. I immediately came home and got back under the duvet after purchasing some chicken from the Tesco express over the road. Literally bloody freezing.

I’ve made various comments about smashing crossbar’s to smithereens over the last few weeks. Well I’ve been banned from all parks after yesterday……take a look at why I use this phrase:

Countrywide Flame 2nd 9/1

Art Scholar 2nd 12/1

Nordic Quest 2nd 7/1

Taro Tywod 2nd 12/1

Hold On Julio 3rd 13/2

Galaxy Rock 2nd 7/1

Bold Cross 2nd 12/1

Langham Lily 2nd 11/4 (Actually in my mind the winner still grrrrr)

Tawaasul 3rd 11/4

Archie Stevens 2nd 9/2

Edgware Road 2nd13/2

Fortunate Bid 3rd 12/1

That my friends is what you call smashing the crossbar to pieces. I can’t complain as it has still been a very profitable month, but it just goes to show….one or two better rides and we would be in Barbados rather than freezing our bits off on a train to London.

The ride on Archie Stevens yesterday cost us and plenty of other people the money yesterday. The money was seriously down as he went from 9/2 into 7/4 and effectively almost finished on the bridle. It was painful to watch and things didn’t really get any better on Edgeware Road. Both are effectively winners without penalties but their hands have been well and truly shown, bugger.

Today is an absolute feast of racing. I’m hosting Timeform Radio this afternoon from 1.15pm. With 5 cards plus the 2 big races from Ireland to take in I won’t have to talk too much today which will save the old vocal cords that have been suffering through the week.

As it is Saturday I am going to start the betting column with a facemelter of a bet of the day! This comes in the form of AVONVALLEY (6.15 Wolv). Peter Grayson’s mare has risen a total of 17lbs in this calendar year after some nice performances. You can forget the last run after being pitched in at the deep end from out fo the weights in a big handicap. Back in class today on a course that she generally runs very well she looks way overpriced to me. Was rated as high as 78 a couple of years ago so this mark is potentially still workable. Massive price at 12/1 this morning!

The second best bet of the day is without doubt INVINCIBLE WARRIOR (4.10 Donc). Brian Meehan’s colt was a huge eyecatcher on debut before winning impressively on his second start. He showed a really smart turn of foot that day and looked a colt of considerable potential. This does not look the strongest of listed contests and his opening OR of 85 probably underestimates his actual ability and therefore he doesn’t have as much to find with a few of these as it seems. The 5/1 this morning was an early chilly Xmas present.

I thought BIG FELLA THANKS represented some value this morning too at a general 5/1. He has a long absence to overcome but that is the only negative I could really find. He is potentially very well handicapped on his old form and the trip will suit perfectly. His course record is very good here too (although national course) and there is a lot to recommend him for a big run this afternoon.

Art Scholar runs again today in the 2.00 at Donny. I’m sure he will run well again on the back of a 2lb rise. This is by far the toughest race of the season and the step up in trip asks another question. He should run well and I certainly wouldn’t put you off backing him again each way if you fancy him. I probably will at 12/1, price too big.

Another big day for West Ham today as the boys travel up to Wigan. The home side have been on a poor run and I think it represents another opportunity for us to bag some very much-needed points. We have a brutal 6 weeks coming up against basically the top 6 so every point counts at this stage. 4000 away fans making the trip….blimey that may well be more than the amount of home fans……..minimum of a point please lads “jingle bellls, jingle bells………….”

I’m off to put ten layers on before the trek up to London.

Have an awesome Saturday and back plenty of winners!

MG

@markagrantham

Friday 26th October – Tom Brady and the Patriots are here!

Apologies once again yesterday for forgetting to add the NFL rundown for last nights game between the Vikings and the Buccaneers. I did tweet last night that the best bet was Tampa +6.5 on the handicap and that they were probably value in the outright market at around 11/5 with some 9/4 about. Well Tampa steam rolled the Vikes 36-17 with the rookie Doug Martin rushing for 136 yards. He looked impressive but the biggest thing this highlighted again is how poor the odds compilers are with the NFL. Every week the games are priced on the teams records rather than the actual ability of the two teams in that particular match up. The home crowd were booing in the first quarter…..wtf???

Hold Court made a pleasing enough hurdling debut to bring home the bacon at Ludlow. He came off the bridle fairly early and didn’t jump too fluently but he was ultimately well on top at the end. He looked to me like he may be in the need of slightly further on a more galloping track.

There has been plenty of chit-chat over the last 48 hours about the new channel 4 racing line up. There have been some good additions to the squad and one or two interesting appointments too. Nick, GC and Gina are all solid additions to the team and well deserved. The one thing that really gets me is why people who can’t broadcast are given jobs as broadcasters? One thing I think you can be sure of from January 1st is that fashion might take up as much air time on the racing program as the actual racing. I also think it’s a real shame that Chris Dixon wasn’t at least put in the squad. I know I am slightly biased as he’s a mate but he honestly walks all over most of the team with his work ethic, knowledge and outright zest for the game. Having said that he has plenty of time and in my book is 1.01 to get there eventually and I’m sure he’ll be propelled up the RUK ranks with others less frequently available.

There are several horses running from the hotlist today……here goes.

Bet of the day material was tough to come by today as all of the list horses are reasonable prices. The hammer came down on DULKASHE (4.00 Newbury). The daughter of Pivitol has only had six starts to date and has shown some steady progression with each run except for a weak effort at Sandown last month on very fast ground. She seemed to appreciate the softer surface when a staying on third at Nottingham last time behind the very well handicapped Art Scholar. That form has a real solid look to it and back on a soft surface she jumps off the page at me this afternoon. She’s generally available at 9/2 and 5/1.

Also at Newbury I like the chances of KING DRAGON (4.00). The Brian Meehan trained gelding has been mixing it with some big guns for most of the season and has largely been running with credit. Today represents his easiest challenge for a while with the drop down to nursery company and I thought he represented some value at around 8/1 this morning with Stan James.

ARCHIE STEVENS (6.10 Wolv) is not the most straight forward by any means, but having said that he has shown glimpses that make me think he would be well handicapped off his current mark in a handicap so that makes him of interest dropped to a seller. The yard continue to go well and if the money came that could be significantfor this drop in grade.

Then there are the two slightly more speculative horses that have managed to weasel their way onto the interesting list. The first of them is EDGEWARE ROAD (8.10 Wolv). A short stint over hurdles must have given the yard the impression that he wants a trip. Well Either that or they have been setting this up for a touch. A strong traveller who likes to lead and he has been in front at the 9f pole on most of his recent starts before blatantly not seeing out the final 2/3f. The drop back in trip looks absolutely ideal tonight and the blinkers are going back on. Very interesting at around 13/2 this morning.

The last bet of the day will be FORTUNATE BID 9.10 Wolv. Although it is a speculative one.  He’s caught my eye on more than one occasion in the process of dropping in the weights and is definitely handicapped to win. He is though probably better over 7/8f so this just does stretch him a little although if he is ridden with patience he does see it out. Patience will be needed but as a result 12/1 is much too big and is an each way play.

It’s the last day of four on the sidelines today and the dreaded flu has stopped me from getting half the things done that I wanted to. I am on Timeform Radio tomorrow for Racing Post Trophy day at Donny and then I’m off to Wembley on Sunday for the NFL matchup between the Pats and Rams so a busy weekend lies in store.

Be lucky today. Back some winners.

@markagrantham

MG

Football betting is a mugs game….right?

The last few days have made me glad that I retired from football betting. I’ve read so many posts about this certainty at 8/11 and that certainty at 4/6. Pretty sure they’ve all been proved to be not so certain after all. What is wrong with Man City in the Champions League? Every time I see them with just Dzeko up front they look paceless.

HOLD COURT (2.10 Ludlow) I was impressed with him in bumpers last season with 2 wins from 3 starts. No disgrace in finishing down the field in a listed event at Newbury on his final start. This looks a really good introduction to hurdling this afternoon and I expect him to run well. Plenty of 11/4, 3/1 about.

My main bet of the day is a non runner.
TAWAASUL
(7.40 Wolv) is a horse that you should include in your multiples today. Looks progressive and goes into handicap company off a fair looking mark. There is some 2/1, 9/4 about if you want to play in a single.

Sorry about the short change today. Tomorrow will be a biggy.
Be lucky

MG

Don’t go up the inside at Lingfield

The title of today’s blog is a message to all jockeys. The less we talk about yesterday the better. Two terrible rides ruined the day, enough said, take it on the chin and move on.

This flu is not budging so I’ve just got up to send this out.

The only horse running from the list today is RAPID WATER 5.50 Kempton. He is particularly well handicapped on his old form and probably should have won on his last two starts. He has been pitched in against the very progressive Neige Dantan from the Prescott yard who you will remember was the conqueror of Taro Tywod last week. He will probably continue his progression upped in trip. Rapid Water is a solid each way proposition and given the favourite’s style of racing (lazy) we might trade short in the run so if your backing on Betfair put up at lay at around evens.

SHREWD (5.20 Newm) Looks to me like he will be much better than his current mark of 85. He really has looked like a soft surface suits best so you can forgive the poor run on very fast ground last time. He looks a solid bet up and trip and back on a softer surface.

Back to bed for me with a pack of Lemsip.

Be lucky

MG

Tuesday 23rd Oct – Time to crack on!

The lord has been kind enough to grant me 4 days off from today which is probably a good thing considering the late night NFL action last night. Biggs had been on (@Bickers56) to advise that the unders were a certainty in the Monday night football between the Bears and the Lions in the windy city. The line was set at 46.5 and with the game ending on 20 pts, this was never ever in doubt. If your on Twitter, then follow him. Very shrewd NFL judge. Only five days to go until I’ll be at Wembley with the troops watching one of my all time heroes in Tom Brady. I can’t wait. His last-minute drive on Sunday just sums him up, pure class.

Whilst working on Turf Tv yesterday we had 20 minute gaps between races and the more I looked at the card the more I liked THE TIGER and CHEVETON in the last two races. I expect there were plenty of pissed off betting shop managers when the guy on the audio in their shop says “The Tiger looks like a standout win bet and by far the best bet of the day” to then watch as it goes from 11/2 into 7/2 and wins on the bridle. Me and Anthony Kemp my parter in crime for the day were counting the cash about half a mile out. I could have put up several pounds overweight on him myself and won.

Today has actually turned into a very busy day. Several list horses are running and a couple of very strong win bets are required.

LANGHAM LILY (2.00 Ling) is without doubt the bet of the day. Chris Wall’s filly has only had four starts to date and really appreciated the step up to 9f last time at Wolverhampton in what is turning out to be interesting form. She went down a nose that day to Kathleensluckylad who looked well handicapped and has gone on to win off a five-pound higher mark since. They kicked clear and the further step up in trip could bring about even more improvement. Back in 4th that day was TARO TYWOD, you all know the improvement that has come there. The one danger in the race was going to be Mutual Regard but that was taken out first thing this morning. I fully expect Langahm Lilly to win and continue her progress. I’ve chunked on at 11/4 but I dont know how long it will last.

A nice each way bet could well be in order in the form of AARTI (3.20 Yarmouth) today. The Oasis Dream filly has dropped 10lb from her opening mark and is starting to drop hints that she is ready to strike. The switch to bad ground might aid her today as she tends to get a bit tapped for toe before staying on. There are lines in her pedigree that suggest she should go on it and with William Buick booked for her in form yard she represents a little value at 9/1 with SportingBet.

WINTER HILL (4.00 Ling) has looked like a horse for a while that is ready to strike. Having dropped a total of 12lbs since her opening mark of 69, the Tom Dascombe filly has run some creditable races without winning. Today she drops into a seller for the first time after catching the eye on her last run. Strictly she has a few pounds to find with a few of these on her current mark but I have no doubt she is better than that so potentially is very well in here off bottom weight. Very interesting at around 8/1. Ooi Long is also on the interesting list in the same race so may be saved on.

In Yarmouth’s 4.50 both GEEAITCH and EXCEEDEXPECTATIONS remain firmly on the hotlist. Geeaitch won for us last week and looks well ahead of his mark but you could also say the same for the latter. I will play them both with split stakes slightly favouring Geeaitch.

A real busy day and hopefully a big winning one!

I’m off back to bed with a Lemsip max to try and shed this flu once and for all. Come on the Lily.

Be lucky today campers,
MG

Monday Blues

Well I’ve woken up to a new week feeling as rough as a dog’s dinner. Had to be up at 6am to make the trip unto Turf Tv this morning to cover the meeting at Pontefract.

I really fancied the Steelers to win in Cincinnatti last night but couldn’t keep my eyes open for kick off. Arian Foster was on 98 yards when he was pulled out of the game with ten minutes left as the game was already won. Tom Brady never looked like getting near his yardage as the Jets defence played outstanding.

There are no list horses running today so nothing of note really.

I will update the blog this evening when I get back home with the NFL  details for tonight.

I have four days off after today so I will be concentrating on the national hunt preview.

Back some winners, let me know what you fancy via twitter @markagrantham

be lucky

MG