NFL Sunday! 23rd September 2012

Well I think it is fair to say that winter is truly upon us! The weather this morning was disgusting. Almost as bad at times as Manchester United were this afternoon in the first half at Anfield. Still they did what United do and ground out a 2-1 win. More fantasy points from RVP. I wish Sky would invest in some decent pundits, the current crop are not the best, typified by Alan Smiths need for a trip to Specsavers after some of his comments this afternoon. Comparing Van Persie’s tackle to Shelvey’s was a complete nonsense.

Yesterday was a long day. Double shift at Coral and Timeform. Tom Segal was up to his old tricks again. A cracking selection in Captain Ramius and a third Ayr Gold Cup in six years for Keving Ryan. I don’t pay much attention to the Pricewise column but he must make a decent profit over the year. I quite fancy a head to head over the 2013 turf flat season……so Tom, get in touch.

From a punting point of view from yesterday, Cheveton ran a blinder in the Bronze Cup to pick up second and take the each way money at 6/1. He looked the winner a furlong out but got picked up by the very well backed favourite. In the main event Our Jonathan missed the break and never looked happy. Typically having backed Brae Hill each way (five places) at 33/1 he finished a creditable but annoying 6th, balls! I really fancied Ballista but he was withdrawn down at the start after head butting the stalls. Saved for another day.

NFL SUNDAY!

So onto tonights NFL action and trying to eek out a little bit of value somewhere. I must admit the first live game between the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins doesn’t really interest me. Both teams are incredibly unpredictable at best although the Jets are a much stronger overall franchise. Of the remaining early games the only thing  I like the look of is the 49ers -6.5 pts on the handicap at Minnesota. 10/11 is widely available and the 49ers who have looked incredibly efficient so far should be much to good for the Vikings. It is almost impossible to run on the 49ers which should eliminate the main threat of Adrian Peterson who is averaging 4.4 yards per carry already this year after surgery and if San Francisco can force the odd turnover, they will cover the handicap comfortably.

SAN FRANSISCO -6.5 H’CAP 10/11 GENERALLY

The late game on Sky is the real interesting one as the excellent Houston Texans travel to Sports Authority Field in Denver (Mile High) to face Peyton Manning’s Broncos. Last week the Falcons exposed a flaw in Manning to a degree that his arm is nowhere near what is was, fine, no problem. Despite four turnovers in the first quarter (first team since Redskins in 2002) the Broncos stayed in the game with a clever dink and dunk process and it looks like that might be the way forward. Let’s not get carried away, the Broncos are not an overnight Superbowl team under Manning. They will however be competitive in every game they play and they will certainly make the playoffs. Houston are a real contender this year IF they stay healthy. Matt Schaub under centre is just as important to Houston as Manning is to Denver. They are an excellent all round outfit, strong on the defensive and offensive side of the ball. Schaub has only thrown for 1 TD and 461 yards against two weak defences so far as they heavily rely on a quality one two punch on the ground. Arian Foster is an elite running back and has already notched up 3TD’s and 189 yards @ 3.5 per carry in two games. Coupled with the HB Ben Tate, they are a very strong running outfit that tend to run the ball early which opens up the play action. Denver tonight will give them their biggest challenge so far as the home D is improving rapidly but I have always had a real suspicion that the Texans are much more at home in a dome on an artificial pitch. Tonight Denver will be rocking and the odds compilers at SkyBet have made a rick on the handicap line.

DENVER BRONCOS +2.5 HANDICAP (SKYBET) 10/11

There are one or two bits of value lying around elsewhere too but i have elected to stick them in the little treble.

Redskins 8/13, Ravens 4/5, and Bills 4/5 in a treble.

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