NFL Sunday!

We go into the final day of the Ryder Cup trailing by 10-6 largely thanks to the pumped up heroics of Ian Poulter. He has been an example to his team mates throughout and I hope they set down in the team meeting and showed the video of what it means to him. Some of the Europeans looked like they would rather be at home playing Tiger Woods 13 on their Xbox. The young American in the blue shirt and red cap at the front of the grandstand on the 18th was really getting on my nerves. Although mostly well-behaved, the crowd on the 18th yesterday were particularly disrespectful. Let’s hope the lads have replaced the ketchup on their eggs this morning for extra hot nandos sauce so they are all fired up for Super Sunday.

The racing yesterday was a mixed bag. Roker Park and Cheveton both ran very poor races and have been removed off the hot list. Bronze Angel ran an absolute blinder to win the Cambridgeshire at morning odds of 12/1. It was only a 1pt selection, but it turned a decent enough profit on the day. I felt lucky however as yesterday at Newmarket there was a major talking point in which some of the jockeys were completely oblivious.

After the first two races it was blatantly clear even to the racing novice that you had to be on or close to the pace to have any chance. None of the closers were getting anywhere near their front running counterparts, Richard Hoiles even mentioned it in his commentary of the third race on the card. The jockeys however obviously thought different. If you had backed hold up horses in the morning, you had done your dough before the off without knowing it. Very glad I didn’t back Maureen as she was held up in last and effectively had no chance. She remains a filly of immense potential and it brings about the point that hold up horses towards the front of the markets that struggled yesterday, may well represent plenty of value next time. Put the card into your lists and keep an eye out.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills 6pm.

A lot of people won’t be overjoyed by the first live game but I can’t wait for it. Last year it was an absolute face melter! The Pat’s went into a big early lead only to be clawed back by an amazing 4th quarter comeback. Tom Brady threw for 387 yards 4 TD’s and 4 INT’s, whilst Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 369 and 2 TD’s! More of the same tonight please fellas! The Pat’s come into this game with their first losing record (1-2) since the opening day of the 2002 season and being a divisional game this carries so much importance so early in the year. Tom Brady’s men come here on the back of a heartbreaking loss in Baltimore and will need to get back on track quickly. For some unknown reason teams have started to almost ignore Wes Welker! After 251 yards receiving in the first 3 weeks of the year I can’t see that happening today, which may open up more of the weapons available, and although I expect a tight game again, I fully expect Brady to go over 300 yards.

Tom Brady over 292.5 yards @ 5/6 with Paddy Power (3 points)

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers 9pm.

Well what can you say about the Saints. A franchise in turmoil really with most of the coaching staff serving bans. No one really believed the loss of head coach Sean Payton will have this much of an adverse effect on the team in the way it has. Look at the positives, Drew Brees is still putting up big numbers having thrown for 904 yards and 7 TD’s in the first 3 weeks. The bad side is that they don’t seem to be able to defend full stop. My initial thoughts when looking at this game would be high scoring. Most firms have set the points line at 53 which means you will be looking for the Saints to score 24 points roughly for the line to be covered. They are still fiery on offense but they are much better in a dome so it does slightly temper my enthusiasm.
Therefore a couple of small interest bets may eek out a similar profit.

Cedric Benson 8/1 Coral,Jimmy Graham 15/2 Ladbrokes, Darren Sproles 11/1 Ladbrokes and James Jones 16/1 Paddy Power. 0.5 pts on each for FIRST TOUCHDOWN scorer.

There is only one horse running today from the hot list but it is being teed up for an all-weather campaign so just a watching brief.

Be lucky, and COME ON EUROPE!

MG

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Super Saturday 29th September!

It’s days like today that make you have to pinch yourself as to what you do for a living. Final day of four on Coral Tv today. On air at 12.30…..and what an absolute feast of sport for the afternoon. England are already underway in the crucial World T20 against New Zealand. We have been poor overall but I feel that has been down to some poor individual effors. Craig Keiswetter shouldn’t be in the side, I feel for Matt Prior, he is borderline the best keeper/batsmen in the world and he is certainly far superior to Craig.

On the back of the cricket we have Arsenal v Chelsea kicking off at 12.45, and Man Utd v Spurs later on. The main talking point of the weekend being the Ryder Cup. The USA played out of their skins last night. They were pumped up from the very first tee. Europe however, meandered around the course and looked half interested. Today, we have to play the fighters! Poulter shouldn’t have been left out last night, neither should Garcia. Hindsight is a great thing eh?

Big thanks to the MK boys for the last few days. Superb accomodation. One or two of the crew aren’t in the best shape today. Me and the captain however had one pint then retreated to watch the golf. Shrewd I hear them all saying this morning. Not so shrewd if you backed McIlroy/McDowell to beat Mickleson and Bradley and had done your dough after 3 holes. I honestly don’t think I will ever see Rory play that badly again!

Onto the glue that keeps the days ticking and another cracking afternoons racing in store for us. I’m really looking forward to seeing MAUREEN again in the Cheveley Park (2.25 Newm). She should really be unbeaten, but she got trapped behind a wall of horses in the Cherry Hinton and couldn’t get out until it was too late and was still only beaten a neck. She made short work of her rivals next time at Ascot in the Princess Margaret and the Richard Hannon trained 1000 guineas entry looks to have bags of class. I fully expect her to win today but she has been smashed up and 2/1 is probably an acurate reflection of her chance so happy to let her run and win.

THE CAMBRIDGESHIRE – 3.40 NEWMARKET

Well thirty-five runner handicaps are not everyone’s cup of tea as a betting medium but I do like them as especially if you play a lot on Betfair you can get some crazy prices about live runners. You could honestly pick ten here and not get one in the frame. I’ve put together a little shortlist of the ones I feel are overpriced and you can play with them however you feel right. I also have a couple of selections.

START RIGHT – Borderline group performer for Godolphin who is hard to win with but generally runs his race and although he needs luck in running, he could easily run into a place at least here. Lots of firms are paying six places etc. He’s 30’s on BF and 7.6 in the place market which could be a cracking play on its own.  I will be backing him to be placed for sure!

CREDIT SWAP – Won this race two years ago but has been on a bit of a downer ever since. Has dropped in the weights slightly as a result but the big thing is the return to Michael Wigham’s yard. If the return home has buzzed him up then he could just play a part at a huge price. Currently 80’s on Betfair and 13’s in the place market.

POSTSCRIPT – Been really progressive this year and often horses that have risen in the weights and move into a better race get ignored which is certainly the case here. Could play a big part for the excellent Graham Lee and Dr Marwan Koukash. 32’s on Betfair and 8.2 in place market.

As far as win bets go I think that both MUKHADRAM and BRONZE ANGEL are worth backing. It is such a competitive race as always though and there is not really any value towards the front end of the market so 1 pt win on each at 11/1 and 12/1.

ROKER PARK – 5.45 Chester 3 pts win @ 11/4 Paddy Power.

Looks a knocking bet this afternoon and is probably the bet of the day. Ran a blinder in the Bronze Cup at Ayr last week when running away from most of the action and winning the race that developed on the stand side. The Choisir gelding has excellent course form which can count double here with a win and a second from his two visits. First time blinkers this afternoon and draw 7 is not too bad. A cracking bet.

CHEVETON – 3.15 Haydock – 2 pts e/w @ 7/1 Bet365.

Still licking our wounds from almost collecting last week but we can go on the recovery mission today. Sholaan is a short priced favourite on the back of the fact he shot clear two furlongs out in the same race last week but he has never been one to throw two solid efforts in together and is worth opposing. This is Cheveton’s time of year and I expect him to run another cracker today with conditions to suit.

I’ll be back tomorrow with the NFL update! No biased ramblings about the mighty West Ham today as they are not playing until Monday night. Can’t wait to sleep in my own bed for once tonight!

Be lucky today!

MG

Friday 28th September

Well today is what all sports fans have been looking forward too! Ryder Cup 2012!

I expect that everybody has been trying to get everyone they know to open new Paddy Power accounts to get on the crazy 4/1 on offer on Europe to new account customers! I think they are an absolute knocking bet at 7/4 let alone 4/1! Like Christmas come 95 days early! Really can’t wait for the action to start at 1.20…..i’m in the hotseat at Coral so got a bird’s eye view! Come on boys!

On the racing front today its day 2 of the Cambridgeshire meeting and we are hopefully going to see next years Oaks winner in the fillies mile (on at 25’s)

THISTLE BIRD – 1.45 Newmarket 3 pts win @ 5/2 generally.

Ultra consistant filly takes a slight drop in class to try to claim a 4th win on the season for Roger Charlton. Joint top rated runner in the race who is likely to just sit in behind the pace this afternoon and hopefully kick on close home. Her form is working out well and she can take this on route to group company next.

CERTIFY – 2.55 Newmarket 5 pts win @ 10/11 generally.

High class unbeaten filly for Mahmood Al Zarooni who should be taking this on route to much better things. Wasn’t given the cleverest of rides last time but it ended up working in her favour as she had to really knuckle down and fight for the first time, so she would have learnt a lot. She should win comfortably this afternoon.

I’ll have a look at Wolverhampton this afternoon.

Be Lucky!

MG

Tuesday 25th September

A time to tread carefully with all this weather about. Very disappointed in Cherry Street yesterday. I know it was a bit of a shot in the dark at the prices but he was never put into the race and it looks like the ability may have gone. I’ll keep my eye on him but there will be no further investing until I see some positives. No bets today.

There were lots of positives to take out of the week. Sat down yesterday and did the video review of the last 3/4 days. A total of nineteen horses went firmly into the hot list, one or two of them are literally sizzling.

A shock result in the NFL last night as the Seattle Seahawks beat Green Bay 14-12. Not a shock really to NFL regulars that know that Quest Field is just about the loudest stadium in the world. The crowd are known as the 12th man, and before each game a Seahawks legend raises the 12th man flag signalling the crowd to up the tempo. For what its worth they will struggle a little on the road but they do look competitive compared to previous years and there pass rush is looking very sharp indeed.

A gruelling week ahead. Largely spent in Milton Keynes. Planning the birthday bash and looking forward to the Ryder Cup!

Monday 24th September 2012

Bit of a late start to the day today. Decided to stay up and watch the late game last night and the decision was fully justified as the Ravens overcame the Patriots 31-30 in an absolute thriller of a rematch of last years AFC Championship game. Last nights games were wild to say the least, shocks left right and centre! The Redskins let me down on the treble as they just cannot seem to defend the pass. I think RG3 is going to be in a shoot out every Sunday. The main sticking point of the night though has to be the officials. For those of you that are unaware the NFL officials are currently inactive due to a lockout over pension disputes. Therefore replacement officials are being used from various other leagues and they are simply not upto standard. Some of the calls last night were nothing short of a disgrace, and even the immaculate Al Michaels and Chris Collingsworth were biting their lips. The players are taking advantage of the weak officials and it needs to be sorted quickly before someone gets hurt.

Very little in the way of betting opportunities today on the turf as the weather is playing havoc. As I write this there are 32 non runners at Leicester. There are some informative maidens at Kempton but they do not represent any plays, but there are a couple of interesting bets later on the card.

DARK CASTLE – 4.20 KEMPTON 2.5 pts win @ 11/4 generally.

Progressive sprinter for Sylvester Kirk who seems to be a 10lb better animal when racing on an artificial surface. Two average runs on the turf before a return to the polytrack at Kempton last Wednesday where things didn’t really work out as they didn’t go quick enough early and he pulled to hard. There is a guaranteed pace in the race today with Lady Gibraltar and Poole Harbour likely to go on. Most of these are handicapped to the hilt and he represents a solid proposition.

CHERRY STREET – 4.50 KEMPTON 1 pt each way @ 14/1 Generally.

Just about the most interesting horse on display this afternoon. A lightly raced three year old from the Andrew Balding stable that has only seen the racecourse on six occasions. Raced three times as a two year old all in maiden company. The last of those runs resulted in a win over Sir Graham Wade (now rated 104). The gelding had two starts this spring when finishing a well backed 3rd here in April before running very poorly on very soft ground at Chester. Given a long break on the back of that effort he returned in a class 3 handicap at Salisbury almost  three months ago but he pulled much too hard. The fact that he has been backed on a couple of occasions hints that there is still something there and although it is a bit of a leap of faith off an 89 day lay off, he is particularly interesting at such a big price, even more so if the money comes today.

By far the horse that pricked my interest the most over the last 7 days came on Saturday night. NOW SPUN trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni made his debut at Wolverhampton. I won’t say too much, but take the time to watch the video back. Very interesting.

Be back later with a look at the review of the week and tonight’s NFL.

NFL Sunday! 23rd September 2012

Well I think it is fair to say that winter is truly upon us! The weather this morning was disgusting. Almost as bad at times as Manchester United were this afternoon in the first half at Anfield. Still they did what United do and ground out a 2-1 win. More fantasy points from RVP. I wish Sky would invest in some decent pundits, the current crop are not the best, typified by Alan Smiths need for a trip to Specsavers after some of his comments this afternoon. Comparing Van Persie’s tackle to Shelvey’s was a complete nonsense.

Yesterday was a long day. Double shift at Coral and Timeform. Tom Segal was up to his old tricks again. A cracking selection in Captain Ramius and a third Ayr Gold Cup in six years for Keving Ryan. I don’t pay much attention to the Pricewise column but he must make a decent profit over the year. I quite fancy a head to head over the 2013 turf flat season……so Tom, get in touch.

From a punting point of view from yesterday, Cheveton ran a blinder in the Bronze Cup to pick up second and take the each way money at 6/1. He looked the winner a furlong out but got picked up by the very well backed favourite. In the main event Our Jonathan missed the break and never looked happy. Typically having backed Brae Hill each way (five places) at 33/1 he finished a creditable but annoying 6th, balls! I really fancied Ballista but he was withdrawn down at the start after head butting the stalls. Saved for another day.

NFL SUNDAY!

So onto tonights NFL action and trying to eek out a little bit of value somewhere. I must admit the first live game between the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins doesn’t really interest me. Both teams are incredibly unpredictable at best although the Jets are a much stronger overall franchise. Of the remaining early games the only thing  I like the look of is the 49ers -6.5 pts on the handicap at Minnesota. 10/11 is widely available and the 49ers who have looked incredibly efficient so far should be much to good for the Vikings. It is almost impossible to run on the 49ers which should eliminate the main threat of Adrian Peterson who is averaging 4.4 yards per carry already this year after surgery and if San Francisco can force the odd turnover, they will cover the handicap comfortably.

SAN FRANSISCO -6.5 H’CAP 10/11 GENERALLY

The late game on Sky is the real interesting one as the excellent Houston Texans travel to Sports Authority Field in Denver (Mile High) to face Peyton Manning’s Broncos. Last week the Falcons exposed a flaw in Manning to a degree that his arm is nowhere near what is was, fine, no problem. Despite four turnovers in the first quarter (first team since Redskins in 2002) the Broncos stayed in the game with a clever dink and dunk process and it looks like that might be the way forward. Let’s not get carried away, the Broncos are not an overnight Superbowl team under Manning. They will however be competitive in every game they play and they will certainly make the playoffs. Houston are a real contender this year IF they stay healthy. Matt Schaub under centre is just as important to Houston as Manning is to Denver. They are an excellent all round outfit, strong on the defensive and offensive side of the ball. Schaub has only thrown for 1 TD and 461 yards against two weak defences so far as they heavily rely on a quality one two punch on the ground. Arian Foster is an elite running back and has already notched up 3TD’s and 189 yards @ 3.5 per carry in two games. Coupled with the HB Ben Tate, they are a very strong running outfit that tend to run the ball early which opens up the play action. Denver tonight will give them their biggest challenge so far as the home D is improving rapidly but I have always had a real suspicion that the Texans are much more at home in a dome on an artificial pitch. Tonight Denver will be rocking and the odds compilers at SkyBet have made a rick on the handicap line.

DENVER BRONCOS +2.5 HANDICAP (SKYBET) 10/11

There are one or two bits of value lying around elsewhere too but i have elected to stick them in the little treble.

Redskins 8/13, Ravens 4/5, and Bills 4/5 in a treble.

Saturday 22nd September

A very long day in the offing today. Travelled up from the coast this morning to Coral TV towers for the racing shift this afternoon. On route I experienced one of the most painful things you can on the motorway. A Kingsmill lorry pulled into the outside lane of the A23 near Hickstead with a big sticker on the back stating “this vehicle is limited to 52mph, please be patient”. This is all well and good, except the lorry it was overtaking also bore a sticker stating “this vehicle is limited to 51mph”. We were on an uphill piece of road and you can imagine the carnage this caused. On the back of Coral Tv this afternoon I’m jumping straight in the car to get down to London to chair the evening session on Timeform Radio.

Having had the day off yesterday I missed out on a Coral night on the town last night. I won’t go into detail but stories on bear chests, unpaid bar bills, bouncers and the standard van of shame, make me feel pleased I had an early night, terrible.

Today’s sport is an absolute feast. Just for the record and not biased in any way. Sunderland have a terrible record at Upton Park! COYI

Cheveton (1.45 Ayr, 1 pt e/w @ 6/1 generally)

The old boy is eight years old now and doesn’t win all that often, but Autumn is without doubt his time of year. He has won at this meeting for the last two years off marks of 87 in the Silver Cup and 85 in this twelve months ago which means if retains all of that ability then he is potentially well handicapped.  A return to form at Ffos Las last time over an inadequate five furlongs and I’m sure he has been steadily brought along to peak for this meeting.

Our Jonathan 3.30 Ayr 2 pts e/w @ 11/1 Bet365, Brae Hill 1 pt e/w @ 33/1 Same firm.

Having won this race last year off a mark of 105 Kevin Ryan’s charge has run with much credit in better races since. The yard have done an excellent job of getting him back to a competitive mark for this and they have won this race twice in the last five years. The ground will be no problem and he is a massive player. Brae Hill is simply overpriced. It’s a bit of a leap of faith as he is much better over 7/8f. The ground will massively help with that respect, especially if they go quick up front, and he might just be able to get involved at a huge price from a decent draw in 14 with the firms paying five places.

Ballista 3.45 Newbury 1 pt e/w @ 7/1 generally.

A sprinter in from for Tom Dascombe and a sprinter that is progressing nicely. Conditions will be no problem at all and I think he could be going the right way and take this step up in class in his stride.

Friday 21st September

Well a late night watching the NFL gave me reduced study time this morning. What a frustrating night. It is the one thing that can screw your bets on the NFL. I put up Ely Manning to go over 292.5 yards, and with 7 minutes to play Manning is cruising on 288. He needs 4 more yards……..and Coughlin pulls him out the game as they are cruising to victory. Killer.Couple this with the fact that Brighton has a matinée meeting that kicks off at midday and its been a hectic morning!

I should be going to Brighton really, but the card looks difficult and I only really think there is one bet there today. Be careful at Ayr, the ground will be extremlely testing and you may see some funny results. I think WENTWORTH is a colt of considerable talent and I fully expect him to win at Newbury today (3.40) but he is too short a price at 4/6 so happy to let him run and win.

All of the modifications announced by the BHA for the Grand National seem sensible, so no problems there. My one rant for the day would be that I wish all the Spurs fans would stop clogging up my twitter feed with nothing but moaning. It’s so boring. Your average, just accept it.

Ottauquechee – 2.35 Brighton (1pt each way with StanJames @ 6/1)

Richard Hannon’s filly has been a little too keen on her first four racecourse appearances and hasn’t really seen out her races either. Given a mark of 60 for her nursery debut at Chepstow last time she was held up out the back and never really got involved over a mile. I think the drop back to seven furlongs today will suit as could the first time blinkers and the booking of Willy Twiston-Davies who takes off a handy seven pounds. This is a weak race and she is certainly overpriced this morning.

 

NY Giants @ Carolina

Thursday night action is upon us once again and we are gifted with a real treat too as the 1-1 New York Giants travel to the 1-1 Carolina Panthers.

I think it’s fair to say Ely Manning and the Giants just didn’t turn up in week one against the cowboys. Back to business on Sunday, they did what the giants tend to do under Ely (Self proclaimed elite quarterback). They went into a shootout against the massively improved Buccanneers and came out on top by 41-34. Manning threw for 510 yards, with 3TD’s and 3 INT’s. Truly amzing stats, but stats that can be misleading as they just love a shoot out in NYC.

Carolina started off with a defeat in Tampa in week one (16-10) so those that love a form line have it right there…….They did improve to beat New Orleans in week two but that is a can of worms that doesnt need to be opened at this stage as the Saints have untold problems in all areas of the pitch and administration throughout. Cam Newton is impressive in his own right as he posseses the threat not only with the arm but his scrambling is exceptional too (although not RG3 standard)! Both of these teams will be looking to get into the playoffs, possibly both just sneaking in so this is a pivitol game early on especially for the Giants who are in the group of death in the NFC East.

Both frachises are strong on the offensive side of the ball but struggle on defense, hence we could see a high scoring game. I struggle to see any value in playing the points spread as with hurry up offenses and 4th quarter slow downs it can be frustrating. The two bets that stand out tonight are the Giants on the handicap and Ely passing yards.

This could be a gun slinger just like Sunday and the Giants have a knack of staying in games under Manning so they look the value play to me tonight. Kick off is only 20 mins away so off to put the kettle on!

NEW YORK GIANTS (+3) 20/23 with LADBROKES

ELY MANNING OVER 292.5 YARDS 10/11 SKYBET

Be lucky!

MG

By mgsportsramblings Posted in NFL